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Monday, May 12, 2008

The Baseball Analysts: Hulet: Looking to Avoid the Sophomore Jinx: AL

The 2007 season saw a number of exciting players come into both the American and National leagues. The junior league received some intriguing young pitchers, while the senior circuit welcomed some promising offensive players.

We are more than a month into the 2008 so now is a good time to take a look at how the 2007 rookie class, now a collective group of sophomores, are doing. Are you as curious as I am to see how many of the promising 2007 rookies have been bitten by the dreaded sophomore jinx? Let’s have a look at the American League today.

Dustin Pedroia
2007 520 .317 .380 .442 112
2008 163 .307 .343 .311 104

Pedroia is the type of player that doesn’t have too many highs or too many lows; he’s just incredibly consistent and a great complimentary player to the big boppers in Boston. He should be good for quite some time and could be one of those players who gets better as he ages, in the Mark Loretta mold.

Josh Fields
2007 373 .244 .308 .480 101
2008 000 .000 .000 .000 000

Already stuck at Triple-A (and hitting .240), Fields has been sidelined by patella tendonitis, which never a pleasant injury for baseball players (just ask Mark McGwire). Continued low averages and on-base percentages will likely continue to hinder his major league success.

Hulet the dog out…

Repoz Posted: May 12, 2008 at 12:45 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: reviews

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1. John DiFool2 Posted: May 12, 2008 at 01:31 PM (#2777586)

If there's one thing Dustin is doing this year that he didn't last, it's thinking he's Babe Ruth and hacking through pitches at his eyes; must have done that at least half a dozen times that I've seen. Hence the reduced walk rate (BTW the SLG should be .411, not .311).

2. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: May 12, 2008 at 02:26 PM (#2777617)

BTW the SLG should be .411, not .311

Phew. I was scared for a second there.

3. ChuckO Posted: May 12, 2008 at 03:15 PM (#2777660)

Isn't the "dreaded sophomore slump" just another name for regression toward the mean? Look at it this way. Those rookies who draw the most media attention are those who are most successful. In that group of rookies, there will be a substantial number who are playing above their true level of talent. The next season, they are likely to regress toward their expected level of performance. Since they will have been among the best performers the previous season, they will draw the most media attention. Hence dreaded sophomore slump. Are there any studies that address this issue?

4. Petuniaviles Posted: May 12, 2008 at 04:28 PM (#2777733)

Just tell me he made the same mistake with Delmon Young...

5. Jim Wisinski

Posted: May 12, 2008 at 04:48 PM (#2777763)

No, Young is just that bad so far. His GB% is 60.7%! That's ridiculous, up near Luis Castillo territory. I agree with Hulet on that, Minnesota is just the wrong organization for Young to be in, what he needs is help with plate discipline and getting a lot of loft out of his swing to utilize his natural power.

6. Walt Davis Posted: May 13, 2008 at 01:04 AM (#2778376)

.307 .343 .311

That would be a cool line over a season though -- like 150 for 500 with either 2 doubles or 1 triple. Even Juan Pierre would have trouble putting up an ISO of .004.

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Monday, May 12, 2008

The Baseball Analysts: Hulet: Looking to Avoid the Sophomore Jinx: AL

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