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Saturday, December 17, 2005

The Baseball Analysts: Klapisch: The Case for Bert Blyleven: A Late Convert Joins the Flock

Klapisch…reaching a Zeistgeist moment on Bert Blyleven.

...What was it that made him so tough to hit? What made him so special? It was that curveball, obviously. I remember its huge, looping trajectory, wondering how the hell he gripped that pitch and generated so much spin.

Finally, it dawned on me: Blyleven was a Hall of Famer not just because of his 3701 strikeouts or 287 wins or a 2.47 ERA in the post-season. It was the uniqueness of his best weapon, the curveball, that set him apart. All the great ones manage to put a singular mark on the game. Sandy Koufax had what old-timers called the greatest lefthanded curveball of the last 50 years. Steve Carlton had that untouchable slider. Nolan Ryan had the heat, even until the end. Mariano Rivera has the meanest cut-fastball a pitcher of any age could ever hope for.

Repoz Posted: December 17, 2005 at 02:00 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1. schuey Posted: December 17, 2005 at 02:46 PM (#1781637)
Did Hecht vote for Nolan Ryan? He was only 32 games above .500 but won 20 games twice. That is what made him a dominant pitcher. It is surprising in looking at Ryan's record howmany 10/11/12 win seasons he had.
Graig Nettles had a few uncomplimentary words about Henry Hecht in his book.
   2. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: December 17, 2005 at 05:18 PM (#1781697)
Huh. Kinda makes BL's attacks on Lederer look a little silly now, no? Lederer is convincing writers of the BBwAA apparently; and even compelling them to admit as much on his very own site.

Good for Rich.
   3. robinred Posted: December 17, 2005 at 05:26 PM (#1781703)
Finally, it dawned on me: Blyleven was a Hall of Famer not just because of his 3701 strikeouts or 287 wins or a 2.47 ERA in the post-season. It was the uniqueness of his best weapon, the curveball, that set him apart. All the great ones manage to put a singular mark on the game.

Well, I guess Klapish will also be voting for Tommy John.
   4. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 17, 2005 at 05:48 PM (#1781731)
Criminy, this is lame. I've always thought Blyleven should be in, but this convinces me that few doubters will be convinced.

Maybe it wasn't Blyleven's fault that he didn't win more often. As blessed as he was with that monstrous curveball, Blyleven was clearly cursed by being in the wrong place at the wrong time, like in 1984 when he won 19 games for an Indians team that finished sixth in the East. Or in 1986, when he won 17 games for the Twins, who finished 21 games out of first place.

At least once he was blessed with being in the right place at the right time, like in 1979 when he had 20 well-deserved no-decisions for the WS-winning Pirates.

It was the uniqueness of his best weapon, the curveball, that set him apart. All the great ones manage to put a singular mark on the game. Sandy Koufax had what old-timers called the greatest lefthanded curveball of the last 50 years. Steve Carlton had that untouchable slider. Nolan Ryan had the heat, even until the end. Mariano Rivera has the meanest cut-fastball a pitcher of any age could ever hope for.

Koufax didn't get in because of his curveball. Carlton didn't get in because of his slider. Ryan didn't get in because of his fastball. Rivera will not get in (if he does) on his cut fastball. So, Blyleven gets in on the Candy Cummings exemption, or something? He's supposed to be the second player to cross the borderline because he had a good pitch? That clicking sound you heard was the door closing on Blyleven forever, or at least until Rich Gossage gets on the VC.

I asked Gossage if he thought Blyleven deserved to be in the Hall..."Hell, yes," Goose said. "Dominant pitcher, great pitcher. He's one of the guys I don't understand why they haven't made it yet. (Andre) Dawson, (Jim) Rice...that guy intimidated the #### out of every pitcher. He made that whole (Red Sox) lineup tougher. No one ever intimidated me, but I'll be honest, Jim got my attention."

Oh, dear, you'd think now Mr. Lederer will have to stump for Rice and Dawson, too. After all, The Goose has spoken.
   5. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 17, 2005 at 06:01 PM (#1781748)
All the great ones manage to put a singular mark on the game.

And by the way, what was Jim Palmer's "singular mark on the game"? Jockey ads?
   6. Shiny Beast Posted: December 17, 2005 at 06:17 PM (#1781763)
And by the way, what was Jim Palmer's "singular mark on the game"? Jockey ads?

Continually arguing with Earl Weaver, I believe.

However relevant or irrelevant, I enjoyed the mention of the various trademark pitches. Using (faulty) memory as a guide, I think I'd take Carlton's slider in his prime against all comers. Devastating.
   7. robinred Posted: December 17, 2005 at 06:48 PM (#1781803)
And by the way, what was Jim Palmer's "singular mark on the game"? Jockey ads

Three Cy Young Awards in a four-year period
   8. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: December 17, 2005 at 09:08 PM (#1781943)
Did some fartin' around with the Blylven stuff I downloaded from retrosheet & with the old RSI stuff.

First the RSI stuff . . . from 1970-7, based on his RA/9IP and his real life run support, this method says that Blyleven should've gone 138-97. In reality he went 122-113 in those years. That's a historic shortfall. He was also fairly consistent in underachieving. He never won more than he should've, and only broke even twice. Here's the year-by-year for him:

1970..10-9
1971..17-14
1972..20-14
1973..23-14
1974..21-13
1975..16-9
1976..13-16
1977..18-8

From 1978-85 he broke even, winning as many as he should've and from 1986-92 he did better, winning seven more than he should've, ending 9 under for his career. I don't know if it's fluke or a sign of something Blyleven was doing or whatever, but it's that -16 wins in his first 8 years that causes his career W/L record to be so out of line with his ERA.

From retosheet -- I looked at how he did vs. different quality of competition -- they are as follows:

Group 1 sub-.400
Group 2 .400-.424
Group 3 .425-.449
Group 4 .450-.474
Group 5 .475-.499
Group 6 .500-.524
Group 7 .525-.549
Group 8 .550-.574
Group 9 .575-.599
Group 10 .600+

Here's how it worked out for his career:

Grp..G....GS.CG..IP.....H....W...K....W-L....ERA
Gr1..63...63.22..468.2..423..133.332..30-18..3.17
Gr2..50...48.16..352.3..310..102.265..22-14..3.12
Gr3..53...52.19..375....345..97..275..27-10..3.07
Gr4..101..99.39..742.2..659..183.556..40-33..2.69
Gr5..80...80.27..586....534..159.421..38-26..3.03
Gr6..66...66.18..464....462..116.361..26-27..3.92
Gr7..106.104.36..725.1..734..195.530..42-43..3.65
Gr8..95...95.35..695.1..596..180.524..34-40..3.26
Gr9..24...24.10..172.2..174..46..143..9-10...3.91
G10..51...51.20..388....395..111.294..19-29..4.01


That works out to a 152-101 record & 2.92 ERA against teams with losing records, but 130-149 and 3.67 ERA vs. .500+ teams. He actually had better W & K rates against the better teams though. Against teams that were .450 or better he was 208-208 in his career.

One of the striking things there is that he didn't really kick much butt against the worst teams (group 1). Sure, 30-18 is good at a .625 winning percentage, but those teams averaged a .374 winning percentage, so by going .375 against Bert they - by the thinnest of margins - did a little better than in non-Bert decisions. Frankly, you should expect a Blyleven-led team to do better than the opposition average to all those groups. He actually does exceed the average against the other 9, thought it's close at times - Group 4 averaged a .462 winning percentage over all and .452 against Blyleven. Group 6 averaged .512 overall and .509 against Bert.
   9. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: December 17, 2005 at 09:21 PM (#1781959)
Oh yeah, going by IP, Blyleven had an Average Opponent WInning Percentage (AOWP) of .497. I would've guessed it to be above .500, but it wasn't.

And by the way, what was Jim Palmer's "singular mark on the game"? Jockey ads?

Continually arguing with Earl Weaver, I believe.

That's about as far away from distinctive as you can get.
   10. Squash Posted: December 17, 2005 at 10:55 PM (#1782047)
It was the uniqueness of his best weapon, the curveball, that set him apart. All the great ones manage to put a singular mark on the game.

I wonder if Catfish Hunter would be an HOFer without the nickname. Would plain old Jim Hunter get in?
   11. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: December 17, 2005 at 11:29 PM (#1782075)
I wonder if Catfish Hunter would be an HOFer without the nickname. Would plain old Jim Hunter get in?

Bill James' bit about why Catfish made the Hall is good regarding that
   12. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 18, 2005 at 01:41 AM (#1782200)
Three Cy Young Awards in a four-year period

Winning awards is clearly not what they mean by "singular". My point is, Jim Palmer was "just" a very good pitcher. No devastating hook, no knee-buckling fastball, no intimidating presence. He was good-looking with pretty blue eyes, that was about it.

If I was going to get serious and pick something singular about Palmer, I suppose it would be the fact that he gave up no grand slams.
   13. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: December 18, 2005 at 04:25 AM (#1782490)
Winning awards is clearly not what they mean by "singular". My point is, Jim Palmer was "just" a very good pitcher. No devastating hook, no knee-buckling fastball, no intimidating presence. He was good-looking with pretty blue eyes, that was about it.

Plus the eight 20 win seasons in nine years. Nice thing to have on the resume.
   14. robinred Posted: December 19, 2005 at 01:55 AM (#1783576)
1782200)
Three Cy Young Awards in a four-year period

Winning awards is clearly not what they mean by "singular". My point is, Jim Palmer was "just" a very good pitcher. No devastating hook, no knee-buckling fastball, no intimidating presence. He was good-looking with pretty blue eyes, that was about it.

If I was going to get serious and pick something singular about Palmer, I suppose it would be the fact that he gave up no grand slams.


I agree to an extent here and diasgree to an extent as well. I am old enough, barely, to remember Blyleven and Palmer in the 1970s. Yeah, the looks and the underwear ads are a "hook" for Palmer, and yeah, somebody wins a CYA every year. But winning 20 all the time and winning 3 CYAs established him, in the eyes of those there at the time, as one of the best. I was 10 in 1975, and I got SI. Mid-summer, they ran a cover of Seaver and Palmer, and the cover line was, IIRC, something like "the best in the business."

And that's the real issue: at the time, Blyleven was not thought of that way. Palmer was. What was "singular" about him was his perceived excellence. He was seen as the consummate craftsman on the mound--cool, professional, prepared. Being good-looking helped him, as did the Orioles winning a lot and playing good D behind him in a pitcher's park. It is arguable that the difference in quality between him and Bert Blyleven was not as great as people thought. But that is how it was seen then. When I was 10, these guys were JIM PALMER and TOM SEAVER. And Bert Blyleven was Bert Blyleven--a guy with a good curve who was on the Twins.

I would vote for BB for the HOF.
   15. Backlasher Posted: December 19, 2005 at 02:25 AM (#1783605)
Mid-summer, they ran a cover of Seaver and Palmer, and the cover line was, IIRC, something like "the best in the business."


I remember that one, I think it was "Baseball's Toughest Pictures" It had them in a split screen showing their motions. Seaver always photographed well in this regard with that knee touching the ground.

One thing about Palmer too is that he likely got Earled out of of part of his career. In his late 20s, early 30s Weaver was running him out there for 300 IPs a year. He fell off a cliff after that period, only having one more high above average season.
   16. robinred Posted: December 19, 2005 at 02:32 AM (#1783607)
I remember that one, I think it was "Baseball's Toughest Pictures"

You're right-- I just found it in my storage unit: "Baseball's Toughest Pitchers."

My g/f thinks I'm a geek for digging up a thirty year-old magazine for an internet discussion. Good thing her Christmas present is going to knock her eyes out.
   17. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: December 19, 2005 at 02:38 AM (#1783612)
I don't distinctly remember that SI, but 1975 was the first year that I followed baseball. The two biggest pitching names in the AL were probably Palmer and Hunter, IIRC.

And this is how the Cy Young voting went:

1st           Max        |       Season Results 
 Rk Name             Team Place Points Points Share
|  W-L   IP  ERA   WHIP  SO SV
+--+----------------+----+-----+------+------+-----+------+---+-----+-----+---+--+
  
1 Jim Palmer        BAL   15     98    120  0.82 23-11 323  2.09  1.03 193  1
  2 Catfish Hunter    NYY    7     74    120  0.62 
23-14 328  2.58  1.01 177   
  3 Rollie Fingers    OAK    2     25    120  0.21 
10-6  127  2.98  1.01 115 24
  4 Jim Kaat          CHW    0      7    120  0.06 
20-14 304  3.11  1.31 142   
  4 Frank Tanana      CAL    0      7    120  0.06 
16-9  257  2.62  1.10 269   
  6 Vida Blue         OAK    0      2    120  0.02 
22-11 278  3.01  1.23 189  1
  6 Rich Gossage      CHW    0      2    120  0.02 
|  9-8  142  1.84  1.19 130 26
  8 Rick Wise         BOS    0      1    120  0.01 
19-12 255  3.95  1.31 141 


You guys are stirring up old memories, man.
   18. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: December 19, 2005 at 02:39 AM (#1783613)
That was courtesy of Sean Forman's baseballreference.com, BTW.
   19. Repoz Posted: December 19, 2005 at 02:46 AM (#1783617)
   20. Big Train Posted: December 19, 2005 at 02:57 AM (#1783627)
I think I'd take Carlton's slider in his prime against all comers.

By far the best thing about the YES NETWORK is the rerunning of old games. The Ron Guidry I saw in 1986 was not the Ron Guidry the older crowd remember from 1978. I watched on of his starts from 78 when I was home last summer. There may have other great sliders, but I seriously doubt there were any better sliders than Guidry circa 77-79.
   21. Backlasher Posted: December 19, 2005 at 03:10 AM (#1783642)
You guys are stirring up old memories, man.


I know from old discussions that most of you were Sporting News junkies, but much of the '70s and '80s big sporting events I've latched SI cover memories too. The photographs in that magazine were always well done.
   22. Backlasher Posted: December 19, 2005 at 03:13 AM (#1783643)
S.I's Baseball's Toughest Pitchers cover...


What was Palmer throwing. It looks like he has a forkball grip on the ball?
   23. Backlasher Posted: December 19, 2005 at 03:26 AM (#1783659)
Thanks to Repoz, another interesting little stat to measure fame:

SI Covers

Seaver - 5
Perry - 3
Carlton -3
Hunter - 2
Palmer -1
Niekro-1
Tiant -1
Marshall-1
Sutton-0
Kaat-0
John-0
Blyleven-0
   24. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: December 19, 2005 at 03:43 AM (#1783686)
Jim Rice has 3 covers, but if you want to get cute, he only has 1 and 1/44 SI Cover Shares. One pic was with Gary Carter, one was with Dave parker in a wonderful late 70's Pirates uni, and the other was wtih 43 other players.
   25. Backlasher Posted: December 19, 2005 at 03:55 AM (#1783702)
but if you want to get cute, he only has 1 and 1/44 SI Cover Shares.

Forman is now frantically rushing to update bbref with your new stat, Daly. Andre Dawson has 2 covers as well. Maybe there is some predictive value in this stat.
   26. Big Train Posted: December 19, 2005 at 04:11 AM (#1783713)
   27. base ball chick Posted: December 19, 2005 at 04:11 AM (#1783714)
Backlasher Posted: December 18, 2005 at 09:55 PM (#1783702)

Forman is now frantically rushing to update bbref with your new stat, Daly. Andre Dawson has 2 covers as well. Maybe there is some predictive value in this stat.


wellllll

ida know bout that

whole lotta guys been on the cover gone nowhere and who ain't going nowhere near the hall...

and how you remember a si cover that come out when you were 5 years old?????
   28. Big Train Posted: December 19, 2005 at 04:19 AM (#1783724)
I think that Mantle Cover is the best thing they have ever done, and it is not for sale, if it was, I would totally buy it for him for Xmas.

When I die, I would like BTF to replace the front page with a large picture of me, from my salad days, looking away from the camera, looking toward the future, and all that will come with it.

That picture perfectly captures what Mickey Mantle meant to my father and so many others.
   29. Backlasher Posted: December 19, 2005 at 04:20 AM (#1783726)
and how you remember a si cover that come out when you were 5 years old?????


My uncle, who is 8 years older than me, got Rolling Stone and SI and I imagine they are all still in my grandmother's attic. I probably read most every issue from the 70s of both magazines at multiple stages of life. I probably remember covers early than that one, but it may not have been contemporaneous reading.

I also can remember a lot of his albums and 8-tracks from that time. Sadly, I think Honky Chateau is one of the most vivid album memories, or Frampton Comes Alive.

But my grandfather also had tons of LPs, so I can remember tons of album art that predated my birth.
   30. base ball chick Posted: December 19, 2005 at 04:34 AM (#1783741)
Backlasher Posted: December 18, 2005 at 10:20 PM (#1783726)

and how you remember a si cover that come out when you were 5 years old?????


My uncle, who is 8 years older than me, got Rolling Stone and SI and I imagine they are all still in my grandmother's attic. I probably read most every issue from the 70s of both magazines at multiple stages of life. I probably remember covers early than that one, but it may not have been contemporaneous reading.

I also can remember a lot of his albums and 8-tracks from that time. Sadly, I think Honky Chateau is one of the most vivid album memories, or Frampton Comes Alive.

But my grandfather also had tons of LPs, so I can remember tons of album art that predated my birth.


that is COOL

(hadta go look up honky chateau) elton john, um, i don't particularly like. i DO like frampton comes alive. guess you could call that a norm cash like fluke...

but now i suddenly got a real interest in goin thru my mama's parents house to see what's there. my grandaddy passed when i was pregnant, so i didn't go up for the funeral cuz i was too sick, but granny must have TONS of old stuff. my mama and daddy kept all their old albums from before i was born - still got em... and i sure do remember all the covers and i would get daddy to play em and we'd sing. and now you got ME feelin old
   31. Backlasher Posted: December 19, 2005 at 04:39 AM (#1783749)
now you got ME feelin old


I got a little nostalgic too. The other real vivid memory I have was being scared of the Aqualung album art as a kid.

But I had one of those little fisher price record players that was my favorite toy. I probably karaokied off that those tinny little speakers many times.

My son discovered my LPs about 8 months ago. I bought him an updated model of the Fisher Price record player for his last birthday (found one on ebay). He plays those LPs more than he does CDs.
   32. Liver of blaspheming 'zop Posted: December 19, 2005 at 05:00 AM (#1783775)
My son discovered my LPs about 8 months ago. I bought him an updated model of the Fisher Price record player for his last birthday (found one on ebay). He plays those LPs more than he does CDs.


I remember playing my Mom's LP's on my F-P record player... I had the words memorized to "Let's Spend the Night Together" and "Ruby Tuesday" (B-Side), and would spontaneously break out into song. When I was 3 years old.

I still know most of those songs. It's funny what you remember.
   33. base ball chick Posted: December 19, 2005 at 05:02 AM (#1783778)
Backlasher Posted: December 18, 2005 at 10:39 PM (#1783749)

now you got ME feelin old


I got a little nostalgic too. The other real vivid memory I have was being scared of the Aqualung album art as a kid.

But I had one of those little fisher price record players that was my favorite toy. I probably karaokied off that those tinny little speakers many times.

My son discovered my LPs about 8 months ago. I bought him an updated model of the Fisher Price record player for his last birthday (found one on ebay). He plays those LPs more than he does CDs.


- yeah, you know, it's funny because even though the old records don't sound as good, somehow they more real. even the covers seem more personal. i think they used to put a lot more art/ thought into covers than they do now. i looked up the aqualung cover and i see what you mean. music keeps the past alive. sometimes i think for generations. how some people live without music i don't know. you know if they brought music and dogs into nursing homes, it would make the old folks a lot better - they got no music, no dogs, hardly family and that lousy food - no wonder they always tired...

there is something about old things you know. husband and brotherman was carting stuff out of this kitchen gonna be redone last week and the lady told them to throw out some old pots and pans and an old waring blender - husband brought them home - i think they about 40- 50 years old - probably hadn't been used in that long - i cleaned them up and they just beautiful - old and solid. not just another piece of junk gonna be trash in a few years.
   34. Backlasher Posted: December 19, 2005 at 05:09 AM (#1783786)
i think they used to put a lot more art/ thought into covers than they do now.


I was reading something about this about a month ago. Definately when I was a kid that album art and those inserts stuck with you. Anyway, the article was talking about how the progression of CDs and now electronic distribution has made that a lost element. What has been replacing this are concert posters that are beginning to be much more visually rich than the older handbill variety.
   35. base ball chick Posted: December 19, 2005 at 05:32 AM (#1783816)
Screw You All, I'm an Alex Rodriguez Fan. Posted: December 18, 2005 at 11:00 PM (#1783775)


I remember playing my Mom's LP's on my F-P record player... I had the words memorized to "Let's Spend the Night Together" and "Ruby Tuesday" (B-Side), and would spontaneously break out into song. When I was 3 years old.

I still know most of those songs. It's funny what you remember.


- yeah, it is, isn't it? i strongly remember when i was a baby maybe even a toddler my brother coming home from school and he'd pick me up and he'd sing atomic dog - while kinda holding me and swinging me around. and me screaming laughing with the WOOF. and our dogs barking along...
i know all the words to the songs we played over and over again when i was little even though i hardly remember much from when i was little...

- so funny how i could always remember all the words and music to so many songs, even ones i hardly even heard, but i couldn't never remember nothing i was supposed to know in school
   36. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 19, 2005 at 06:01 AM (#1783842)
I have NO clue what you folks are talking about.

What's a LP? Is that like some sort of dinosaur meat snack or something?

(J/k)

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