The Baseball Analysts: Sullivan: Josh Beckett: To Extend or Not?

The first lesson here is that it’s critical to understand that there is a premium to be paid on the unrestricted free agent market, and that you have to recalibrate performance expectations. You might not get the late-aughts Beckett for his next contract, and it might feel like you’ve overpaid at times, but when you consider how much value Boston got in this last contract, it could all even out. Let’s take the John Lackey deal as an example and given Lackey’s similarities to Beckett, it’s not a bad proxy at all. If you believe Fangraphs free agent dollar values assigned to each win, all the Red Sox need from Lackey to make the deal worthwhile is output like Scott Baker or Carl Pavano produced in 2009, or Andy Sonnanstine in 2008. Can Beckett do that in his 31 to 35 seasons? Maybe.

The second lesson is that, given the odds of a 30-plus pitcher living up to his end of the deal, there are probably better areas to allocate your free agent spend. In Boston’s case, this is especially true given the commitment they have made to John Lackey this off-season. As a Red Sox fan, I am not ready to state explicitly that they should let Beckett walk but $35-$40 million committed to Lackey and Beckett annually from 2011-2014 has the potential to hamper Boston’s flexibility. As with anything else, this decision will come down to Boston’s ability to meld medical, scouting and performance analysis insight to generate an accurate projection of Beckett’s future output.

Now don’t mess it up!

Thanks to Wims.