BABIP. There I said it. Plus some Dylan, Pete Palmer freak show biz…
with BABIP steadily declining, is this years .259, a drop off of 20+, points just random or do you expect it to climb back up into the .270-.280 range?
1) The use of the term “BABIP” is lazy and annoying to the readers, and I would prefer that you not use it.
2) I wasn’t aware that Batting Averages on Balls in Play HAD dropped. Have they dropped over a period of years, or just down this year?
3) While I wasn’t aware that they were down, I had it on my list of things to do to check and see whether they were down, because John Dewan estimated that the Defensive Shifts had saved 75 runs last year. IF defensive shifts have saved 75 runs that would imply that they have saved something like 150 hits, which would lead to a measurable drop in batting average on balls in play (although not anything like 10 points).
Batting Average on Balls in Play: 2010: .297 2011: .295 2012: .297 2013: .293
A slip from .297 to .293 is not statistically significant, and does not establish a trend. It could be explained in part by more usage of defensive shifts, or it could be (essentially) random. If there’s a LARGE slip, that probably is due to early-season cold weather.