Has CC overtaken Halladay with regard to the chance of getting to 300 wins? I thought that was actually somewhere on the site but I can’t find it (or do I just need to buy the new Handbook to find out?)
Both Sabathia and Halladay had negative seasons in terms of their standing as 300-Win candidates, but Halladay much worse. Verlander is now the #1 300-win candidate in the game, at 38%, with Sabathia at 37%, which is down from almost 50% a year ago.
I think you’ve shared your formula for the “300 win chance” before, but perhaps you could ‘splain…as I see it, CC needs 109 wins to get to 300, Verlander 176. Every time i look at someone’s chances, I assume that they’ll at least need to pitch until about 40 to get to 300 wins (a fairly common age for modern-era 300-game winners to reach their goal). So CC’s got 9 more years of pitching (he starts the year at 32 years of age), and he needs to average 12.1 wins/year, to get to 300 at age 40 (though his 41st birthday comes July 21st of that year). Verlander starts the year age 30, so he’s got 11 more years to get to 40, but he has to average 16 wins/year to get there. It seems to me that you’ve weighed Verlander’s youth quite heavily to have his chances be BETTER than CC’s. Some other notables: King Felix 13.5 wins/year; Kershaw 14.9, Cain 16.5, Halladay 16.8, Buerhle 18.0, Weaver 18.0. Am now ready to have my methodology destroyed.
Age is relevant but not VERY relevant. We don’t MUCH care whether a pitcher is 30 or 32. What matters most is his momentum. CC made on 28 starts in 2013. The thing that identifies pitchers who are going to get to 300 wins, historically, is that they stay in the rotation and keep pitching. CC had done that until 2012. In 2012, he didn’t. It’s a step backward. It reduces his momentum, and makes it less likely that he will last long enough to get to 300 wins.
Posted: March 07, 2013 at 06:43 AM | 71 comment(s)
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