Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, December 15, 2013

The Bob Ryan HOF Ballot

“Bagwell is a borderline candidate I happen to favor.” And we’re off…

Maddux, Glavine, Biggio, F. Thomas, Piazza, Bagwell, E. Martinez, J. Morris, Raines, Schilling.

There are many other worthy people on this ballot. I would not quarrel with anyone who votes for Moises Alou, Jeff Kent, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, or Larry Walker. Add my 10, these eight, and the five PED guys and that makes 23 reasonably qualified candidates for baseball’s highest order.

One of my rejections really pains me. I really loved Alan Trammell during his lengthy career with the Tigers. Another who is causing me some pain is Larry Walker. Did you know he won three batting titles and seven Gold Gloves, or that he had a career OPS of .965? But life, as they say, is choices, and I am comfortable with my 10.

Repoz Posted: December 15, 2013 at 08:51 AM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Repoz Posted: December 15, 2013 at 09:08 AM (#4618242)
BTW...ridiculously small Gizmo sample.

100% - Maddux
100% - Glavine
80% - Biggio
73% - F. Thomas
73% - Jack (The Jack) Morris
67% - Piazza
   2. dejarouehg Posted: December 15, 2013 at 09:09 AM (#4618243)
Moises Alou is a worthy candidate? Mattingly?

Good Grief Bob!
   3. Rafael Bellylard: A failure of the waist. Posted: December 15, 2013 at 09:23 AM (#4618245)
A very reasonable ballot. I'd favor Mussina over Morris and Schilling, and the five PED guys are a matter of personal taste.

We'll see many, many ballots harder to defend than this one.
   4. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: December 15, 2013 at 09:41 AM (#4618247)
If you're going to vote for Morris and also worry about PEDs, this is about as good a ballot as you can get. Uses all 10 slots, and acknowledges that there are a bunch more worthwhile candidates.

Alou is in the inner circle of the HOVG. In his whole career he was always considered quite good but never felt like a Hall of Famer. If he was the best player on your team, you likely weren't going to win a pennant. He was never considered the best at his position, but he made 6 All Star games. He didn't do little things to make him better than his numbers indicate. His top four comps (Magglio Ordonez, Elllis Burks, Shawn Green, Indian Bob Johnson) are all true HOVG guys. If you build a list of RF/LF/1B/DH guys centered around Alou by PA and OPS+ you get this list:

Player              PA OPS+
Adam Dunn         7817  124
George Foster     7812  126
Moises Alou       7913  128
Bobby Bonds       8090  129
Magglio Ordonez   7745  125
Bobby Murcer      7718  124
Don Mattingly     7722  127
Kiki Cuyler       8100  125 

That's a guy who was a bad choice for the Hall of Fame, a fringe HOVG guy (Bonds), then a bunch of true HOVG guys. Alou is solid.
   5. Tippecanoe Posted: December 15, 2013 at 10:02 AM (#4618249)
a fringe HOVG guy (Bonds)


You meant fringe HOF, I think.
   6. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 15, 2013 at 10:33 AM (#4618253)
very reasonable ballot. I'd favor Mussina over Morris and Schilling, and the five PED guys are a matter of personal taste.

We'll see many, many ballots harder to defend than this one.


This. I'll say this a dozen more times at BBTF between now and the announcement of the results, but if you vote for ten candidates, and you get the majority of them "right" in a broad sense, then plaudits to you for your ballot. The ket to the 2014 results being helpful to 2015 and beyond is getting a handful of the most clear cut candidates off the ballot and into the HOF.

We all know Bonds and Clemens are not getting in this year, and we know they are going to get more than 5%. Getting Glavine, Maddux, and Biggio in the HOF in 2014, and the reality that Morris is off the ballot after this year, is an important step to clearing out the logjam. To me, the real progress would be if somebody else beyond those four could graduate, as well (Thomas, Bagwell, or Raines), as unlikely as that seems right now.
   7. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 15, 2013 at 10:58 AM (#4618256)
Hm. Obviously, Repoz said it's a very small sample, but I'm interested that Glavine is at 100% so far. I really thought it might be only Maddux and Biggio this year.
   8. LargeBill Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:12 AM (#4618260)
#6 You're right the full ballots this year are all about next years ballot. We need more qualified guys to leave the ballot (elected, 15th year or <5%) then the new additions which arrive on next years ballot. Randy, Pedro, Smoltz & Sheffield show up next year so we need a minimum of four to leave this years ballot. Seeing a lot of full ballots has me cautiously optimistic that Maddux, Glavine and Biggio will get in and holding out hope that Thomas sneaks in at 75%.

Unlike some, I don't think the entire process is broken just because it doesn't work as efficiently as we'd like. I would not change the 75% minimum for election, but would allow voters to include more names on their ballot. Doesn't need to be a crazy number like 20. Even an increase to 15 would help get more guys over 75% and keep some greats from falling below 5%.
   9. dejarouehg Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:14 AM (#4618261)
I'd favor Mussina over Morris and Schilling,


I know this line of logic is not appreciated here, but if you needed a starter for a do-or-die game, wouldn't you take both Morris and Schilling over Mussina??

In his time with the Yankees, I never felt Mussina had that HoF aura.

Talent-wise, I'd certainly want him over Sutton or Niekro but I don't think they should be in either.
   10. LargeBill Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:16 AM (#4618263)
Double post, oops.
   11. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM (#4618264)
Maddux, Glavine, Biggio, F. Thomas, Piazza, Bagwell, E. Martinez, J. Morris, Raines, Schilling.


We'll see many, many ballots harder to defend than this one.

I agree. Remove Morris and put in Trammell and there's nothing there to argue with other than his implicit placing of Clemens in the proven guilty group of steroids users, which is a whole separate issue.
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:18 AM (#4618265)
If I remember correctly, the announced ballot are more pro-bbtf thinking than the unannounced ballots. So whatever percentages we see, you can expect Raines and the roid guys to drop, and the Morris and Smith votes to go up. I'm 100% confident Maddux goes in, and about 80% confident Glavine goes in, any other year but this year and Biggio would have gone in easily(maybe even bigger jump than Alomar had) but this year with so many names to choose from, he could be left out for another two-three years.
   13. cardsfanboy Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:23 AM (#4618270)
5 ped guys.... 1. McGwire 2. Palmiero 3. Bonds 4. Clemens...5.?????Sosa?
   14. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:29 AM (#4618274)
Hm. Obviously, Repoz said it's a very small sample, but I'm interested that Glavine is at 100% so far. I really thought it might be only Maddux and Biggio this year.


Glavine has two things going for him; he's fully qualified, and he gets to ride the coattails of someone who's an all-time great. Sportswriters love good theater.
   15. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:42 AM (#4618283)
Glavine has two things going for him; he's fully qualified, and he gets to ride the coattails of someone who's an all-time great. Sportswriters love good theater.


I'm not a Braves fan, but the idea of Maddux, Glavine, and Bobby Cox all getting into Cooperstown in the same year would nudge me towards taking the four-hour drive to the induction ceremony next summer.

In the less likely scenario that Bagwell and Biggio got in together this year, that would also be an incentive to attend.
   16. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 15, 2013 at 11:56 AM (#4618288)
I'm not a Braves fan, but the idea of Maddux, Glavine, and Bobby Cox all getting into Cooperstown in the same year would nudge me towards taking the four-hour drive to the induction ceremony next summer.

In the less likely scenario that Bagwell and Biggio got in together this year, that would also be an incentive to attend.


Yep, we sometimes get so caught up in the numbers that we forget the passion and memories and reasons we love baseball. So your 4 hrs. away? I'm 5 hrs. and haven't been there since the year of Reggie's induction.
   17. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 15, 2013 at 12:03 PM (#4618292)
'm not a Braves fan, but the idea of Maddux, Glavine, and Bobby Cox all getting into Cooperstown in the same year would nudge me towards taking the four-hour drive to the induction ceremony next summer.


Have you ever gone to an induction? If not I highly recommend it. I went in 2009 for Jim Rice and it was a lot of fun. It really is just a celebration of baseball. The town is effectively one giant museum dedicated to the event, everyone is ridiculously friendly and things move along much better than you'd expect. I figured there would be ridiculous lines at the Hall itself and restaurants would be a shitshow but it wasn't like that at all.

If you are wavering, just go. We stayed somewhere about 30 minutes outside Cooperstown but getting in on Saturday was a breeze. We parked on someone's lawn ($20 I think) and on Sunday (induction day) we just caught the bus, piece of cake.

Funny little story. The lawn turned out to belong to the cousin of John Schneider. The woman mentioned it to me and said "he's signing autographs today." I was polite and asked where then as I walked away thought to myself "hmmm...I've never heard of a ballplayer named John Schneider, the only one I know is the guy from the TV show The Dukes of Hazard." Well, that's who it was. For some reason among all the baseball heroes signing (and they are everywhere) Bo Duke was signing autographs.
   18. bob gee Posted: December 15, 2013 at 12:09 PM (#4618296)
as others have said - if you're not going to go with any of the PED people, this is a pretty good ballot.

yeah, i'd rather have trammell on that ballot instead of morris, but at least it's reasonably consistent.
   19. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 12:51 PM (#4618331)
I'm not a Braves fan, but the idea of Maddux, Glavine, and Bobby Cox all getting into Cooperstown in the same year would nudge me towards taking the four-hour drive to the induction ceremony next summer.

As an added bonus in 2014, you'll get to watch Sam drink copious amounts of beer before and after the ceremony.
   20. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: December 15, 2013 at 12:59 PM (#4618339)
a fringe HOVG guy (Bonds)

You meant fringe HOF, I think.

Same thing. A fringe HOF guy is at best a fringe HOVG guy. Someone like Bobby Bonds (or, say, Fred McGriff on this ballot) who you could squint and see as a Hall of Famer can't be inner circle HOVG. If there's a reasonable argument for you for the HOF then you're fringe-at-best HOVG. The HOVG is really for the guys who were really good players for a long time, but obviously not Hall of Famers.
   21. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: December 15, 2013 at 01:05 PM (#4618343)
a fringe HOVG guy (Bonds)

You meant fringe HOF, I think.


Same thing. A fringe HOF guy is at best a fringe HOVG guy. Someone like Bobby Bonds (or, say, Fred McGriff on this ballot) who you could squint and see as a Hall of Famer can't be inner circle HOVG. If there's a reasonable argument for you for the HOF then you're fringe-at-best HOVG. The HOVG is really for the guys who were really good players for a long time, but obviously not Hall of Famers.


This makes absolutely no sense.
   22. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 15, 2013 at 01:09 PM (#4618346)
A fringe HOF guy is at best a fringe HOVG guy.


I don't think that's how most people use it. I think people's PHoVG excludes the Hall of Famers (at least the deserving ones), so that a fringe HoFer would be at least a comfortable HoVGer, if not inner-circle.

   23. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 01:30 PM (#4618359)
I think people's PHoVG excludes the Hall of Famers (at least the deserving ones), so that a fringe HoFer would be at least a comfortable HoVGer, if not inner-circle.


That's how I've always used it. Inner Circle HoVG players = borderline HoF players for me. HoVG are fringy HoF Candidates who I wouldn't want to see get elected but don't mind seeing stay on the ballot for a few years (at least, back before we developed this horrible logjam).

This ballot uses all 10 spots. I have zero problem with it, even including Morris.
   24. BDC Posted: December 15, 2013 at 01:30 PM (#4618361)
Does Fernigal mean a sort of "top" fringe (to the HOVG?)

HOVG is really for the guys who were really good players for a long time

The HOVG might have its peak members, too, of course. A lot of pitchers, but also the Josh Hamiltons of the world who established that they had superior talent, but didn't put together great careers. Elston Howard is my idea of a HOVG catcher, based mostly just on 1961-64, etc.
   25. John Northey Posted: December 15, 2013 at 01:32 PM (#4618362)
Scary that a good ballot can be made while skipping 5 clear HOF'ers - the HR king, a guy with 350 wins, another guy with 600+ HR, another 2 with 500+ one of whom has 3000 hits and the other with a 70 HR season. Those 5 would've all been easy first ballot choices without PED's yet it isn't hard to make a 10 man ballot without them and still miss some very good HOF candidates.

Of course, one benefit of this is that in a few years the HOF vet committee will actually have very good candidates to put in.
   26. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: December 15, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4618372)
and about 80% confident Glavine goes in,

You are making good progress. Wasn't it like a week ago you want to argue with me when I assured everyone Glavine was going in?
   27. LargeBill Posted: December 15, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4618373)
25. John Northey Posted: December 15, 2013 at 12:32 PM (#4618362)
Scary that a good ballot can be made while skipping 5 clear HOF'ers - the HR king, a guy with 350 wins, another guy with 600+ HR, another 2 with 500+ one of whom has 3000 hits and the other with a 70 HR season. Those 5 would've all been easy first ballot choices without PED's yet it isn't hard to make a 10 man ballot without them and still miss some very good HOF candidates.

Of course, one benefit of this is that in a few years the HOF vet committee will actually have very good candidates to put in.


Now, that is how you define a silver lining around a crap sandwich!
   28. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: December 15, 2013 at 01:49 PM (#4618377)
Of course, one benefit of this is that in a few years the HOF vet committee will actually have very good candidates to put in.


Eh. They'll just put in Jack Morris, Gil Hodges, and Don Mattingly
   29. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 03:14 PM (#4618419)
Eh. They'll just put in Jack Morris, Gil Hodges, and Don Mattingly Dave Concepcion

FFIFY
   30. Gonfalon B. Posted: December 15, 2013 at 03:49 PM (#4618439)
Bob Ryan's ballots, 2013-2014: seven carryovers, adds Maddux, Glavine, Thomas (+3)
   31. jdennis Posted: December 15, 2013 at 04:17 PM (#4618448)
First guess at percentages:

Maddux 99
Glavine 89
Biggio 84

I guess I underestimated the support for Glavine initially. I thought he would be borderline, but I am now convinced he'll get in pretty easily.
   32. PreservedFish Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:27 PM (#4618485)
I have strong opinions on the HOVG vs HOF thing:

PreservedFish Posted: January 05, 2010 at 10:31 PM (#3428884)

... There is a sort of distinction in my gut between HOVG players, and players that could have been HOF but fell short.

Ellis Burks or Moises Alou is HOVG. Chuck Finley. Robin Ventura. Mark Grace.

Juan Gonzalez and Jose Canseco are players that could have easily been HOFers in another world. They are plastered all over the seasonal leaderboards. They seem to belong in a different category for me. They don't need the HOVG, and they were never fated to belong in the HOVG.


My HOVG does not end where the HOF starts. Apologies to the players stuck in limbo, but you were famous enough to get by without the Hall's help.

Tony Phillips will be entirely unknown to the next generation! My HOVG exists to set such wrongs right.


So I absolutely agree with #20.
   33. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:36 PM (#4618489)
So a fringe HOVG player is either too good or not good enough? If Bobby Bonds and Fred McGriff are at one end, who's at the other?
   34. PreservedFish Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:42 PM (#4618494)
Yes, exactly. You can be either too good or not good enough for the HOVG.

Who is on the other end? I dunno, Kevin Millwood, Carlos Lee? Kevin McReynolds? Aramis Ramirez? Guys that were pretty good but not worth immortalizing. If, in 10 years, I can't tell you a damn thing about Kevin Millwood or Aramis Ramirez, I don't consider that a huge loss.
   35. Gonfalon B. Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:43 PM (#4618495)
Who would be an inner circle fringe HOVG player?
   36. dejarouehg Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:48 PM (#4618499)
First guess at percentages:

Maddux 99
Glavine 89
Biggio 84


Agree on Maddux. I think he breaks Seaver's record. (Anyone who doesn't vote for him should have their privileges revokes for being a d.b.)

Not sure about Glavine, which may be my own personal animus for watching him get the benefit of b/s calls off the outside corner of the player, which skillset certainly seemed to disappear when he became a Met. I'm guessing closer to 80.

I still think Biggio is somewhat tainted by the Astros PED environment so misses for one more year and then in.

I believe Thomas gets in though.

Maddux (all but one vote)

Glavine 80%

Thomas 76%

Piazza 72%

Biggio 70%

Morris 68%


   37. PreservedFish Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:50 PM (#4618500)
To put it really simply, I don't think that someone like Johan Santana - who performed at a no doubt Hall of Fame level in his prime - fits into the HOVG alongside guys like Mark Langston and Dennis Martinez. They all have similar WAR totals.

Jack Morris, by the way, is a rock solid inner circle HOVG player for me. He wasn't elite, but he was pretty good, he was colorful, he was memorable, he lasted a long time - he has everything you want.

The HOVG isn't a consolation prize.
   38. dejarouehg Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:16 PM (#4618517)
Among his peers, Morris seems to be widely considered elite.
   39. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:19 PM (#4618520)
People have actual definitions of "Hall of Very Good" in their minds? And to some people it means "peak" rather than "career", or vice versa, or something? Really?
   40. bob gee Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:47 PM (#4618531)
38 - rafael palmeiro was considered a gold glove first baseman in 1999. if the voters weren't his peers, they were might close.

and at the time of his career, morris wasn't generally considered elite. a bulldog and innings eater, yes. and #1 on his team for a while. but not elite.




   41. winnipegwhip Posted: December 15, 2013 at 07:03 PM (#4618537)
a fringe HOVG guy (Bonds)


You meant fringe HOF, I think


I think you both meant a syringe HOF.
   42. FrankM Posted: December 15, 2013 at 07:36 PM (#4618549)
That's Bobby they're talking about, not Barry.
   43. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: December 15, 2013 at 08:15 PM (#4618559)
I use 62 WAR as my informal HoF in/out line: there are 106 batters and 49 pitchers above that line. (This obviously doesn't allow for managers, owners, Negro Leaguers, Dotty Kamenshek, etc).

Assuming that the HoVG should be roughly twice the size of the HoF (it's a pyramid, you see), then 40 WAR would make a good starting point. There are 214 batters between 40-61.9 WAR, and 119 pitchers (including Justin Verlander, at 40.7).

And if you wanted to take this still further, the 25-39.9 chunk (the Hall of Pretty Decent?) is about twice as big as the HoVG, four times the size of the HoF. (Ron Reed! Enshrined at last...!)
   44. Walt Davis Posted: December 15, 2013 at 08:37 PM (#4618568)
Among his peers, Morris seems to be widely considered elite.

So does Mattingly. And Concepcion. And Lee Smith.

And maybe not Whitaker or Grich -- at least I don't recall hearing players extolling their virtues but maybe I'm just not catching the right broadcasts, etc.

The "elite" thing might be an argument for why Morris is a step above D Martinez, Reuschel, Steib, Tanana, etc. despite the numeric similarity just like "peak" might be an argument for why Mattingly stuck on the ballot while Hernandez did not. Still leaves them well shy of HoF-worthy.
   45. Walt Davis Posted: December 15, 2013 at 08:53 PM (#4618572)
Glavine has two things going for him; he's fully qualified, and he gets to ride the coattails of someone who's an all-time great. Sportswriters love good theater.

What is this claim based on? The only teammates I can recall going in together were Mantle and Ford, Ford having received 67% in his first year on the ballot and a typical 78% on his second so there's no obvious Mantle effect there. They're certainly the only teammates of the last 40 years.

When Boggs entered the ballot, Rice (not teammates but same team) saw only a modest 5% bump, pretty standard and less than Sutter got that year.

Were writers excited about the Minnesota connection in electing Puckett and Winfield the same year? That seems pretty unlikely.

There have been some theatrical pairings -- Ripken/Gwynn, Aaron/Robinson -- but those are the result of no-brainer HoFers entering the ballot at the same time.

Doesn't it make as much sense that these lovers of theater would want to distinguish between the all-time great Maddux and the oustanding but not all-time great Glavine by making Maddux a first-ballot guy. Does making Maddux share the spotliht with Glavine make for better theater?

And if the writers love theater so much, maybe they should have elected somebody last year. Perhaps they are fans of avant-garde anti-theater.
   46. vivaelpujols Posted: December 15, 2013 at 08:57 PM (#4618576)
Jack (The Jack) Morris over Walker, Trammel, Mussina and possibly Kent is a huge ###### for me, but otherwise this is basically a perfect ballot (assuming you're cool with him rejected known steroid users and Sosa for some reason). Bonus points for including Schilling. 9/10.
   47. themiddle54 Posted: December 16, 2013 at 12:19 AM (#4618655)
Among his peers, Morris seems to be widely considered elite.

Great reason for no peer voting.

A ballot with Schilling but not Mussina (whose only demonstrable edge over Schilling is Wins) looks on the surface like a win for reason and logic. But then Morris is on the ballot and Mussina (who is pretty darn similar to Schilling, career-wise) is absent, and the ballot is ridiculous.
   48. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: December 16, 2013 at 01:18 AM (#4618674)
I use 62 WAR as my informal HoF in/out line


I haven't checked to see which ones actually make the cut, but I'm guessing you don't have enough catchers in your personal HOF.
   49. cardsfanboy Posted: December 16, 2013 at 01:43 AM (#4618676)
You are making good progress. Wasn't it like a week ago you want to argue with me when I assured everyone Glavine was going in?


Probably, these ballots have reminded me of his strong case.

As a side note, this hof class for Braves fans is probably going to be lots of fun. If Glavine/Maddux/Cox are all going in, it could be a big audience for the ceremony. The face of the 90's Braves who were popularized nationwide with TBS....


   50. cardsfanboy Posted: December 16, 2013 at 02:01 AM (#4618678)
Jack (The Jack) Morris over Walker, Trammel, Mussina and possibly Kent is a huge ###### for me, but otherwise this is basically a perfect ballot (assuming you're cool with him rejected known steroid users and Sosa for some reason). Bonus points for including Schilling. 9/10.


This is the thing I've been railing against... it's not Morris over those guys, it's Morris instead of those guys. There is no ranking on a hof ballot. If a voter puts in ten names, he is under no obligation to put in the ten "best" names. I personally wouldn't vote for Morris (as I don't think he is even hovg) but anybody who has a ten man ballot, can justify their vote.

Assuming that the HoVG should be roughly twice the size of the HoF (it's a pyramid, you see), then 40 WAR would make a good starting point. There are 214 batters between 40-61.9 WAR, and 119 pitchers (including Justin Verlander, at 40.7).

And if you wanted to take this still further, the 25-39.9 chunk (the Hall of Pretty Decent?) is about twice as big as the HoVG, four times the size of the HoF. (Ron Reed! Enshrined at last...!)


Too mechanical way of looking at it for me. I prefer to use the hovg distinction for guys who were probably underlooked as they played but carved out a nice niche. I guess that the inner circle hovg are guys who, for the most part, clearly define the border of hof. That is your Keith Hernandez's, Don Mattingly, etc...But the other part of the hovg, the guys who make up the largest portion of it, are ten year players who put up 3-4 war years in relative anonymity. Not your Dale Murphy's with two MVP awards or your guys who had tremendous talent and just couldn't get lucky enough to stay healthy(JD Drew or Eric Davis) etc... but your workhorse type of players, Kirk Gibson, Ray Lankford, Placido Polanco, Reggie Sanders etc.

Obviously everyone has a different opinion, and I agree 40 war is pretty safe bet.
   51. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: December 16, 2013 at 08:36 AM (#4618693)
As a side note, this hof class for Braves fans is probably going to be lots of fun. If Glavine/Maddux/Cox are all going in, it could be a big audience for the ceremony. The face of the 90's Braves who were popularized nationwide with TBS....


And for old school guys, Torre.
   52. John Northey Posted: December 16, 2013 at 09:43 AM (#4618713)
The final results will be interesting. A shame the HOF doesn't release ballots, even if they just released them without the writers name on it. I imagine we'd see some very, very odd ones and there would be a search each year for which was the 'dumbest' and which was the 'best' of the ballots by various measures. Anyone who turns in a blank ballot this year should be required to explain to the HOF committee why they should keep getting a ballot. For a 'purist' handing in one with just one name (Maddux) could be viewed as acceptable (dumb, but livable) but a totally blank one...what would be the reasoning? No voting for anyone in the steroid era or who went on strike? That is about the only reason I could see (thus hitting Morris with the '81 strike...he was released just before the 94 one - everyone else played during the '95-2004 pre-penalty stretch generally viewed as the steroid era) that would have a hope of any panel going 'OK, we can accept that' although I'd prefer if they didn't as that pretty much excludes everyone who played between 1981 and 2004 (guess someone could've had a HOF career from 1982 to 1993 and avoided both strikes and PED's but you also have the 1985 2 day strike so I guess not).
   53. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: December 16, 2013 at 09:52 AM (#4618716)
guess someone could've had a HOF career from 1982 to 1993 and avoided both strikes and PED's but you also have the 1985 2 day strike so I guess not).


Sandberg comes pretty damned close. His debut in 1981 came after the strike. He retired for the first time just before the 1994 strike. He did play in 1996 and 1997 but those years add nothing to his case.
   54. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 16, 2013 at 10:19 AM (#4618723)
Yeah, having Cox/LaRussa/Torre/Maddux+ means that the crowd should be really good. If Glavine and another one or two get in, I might want to go to the induction weekend.
   55. vivaelpujols Posted: December 16, 2013 at 11:09 AM (#4618764)

This is the thing I've been railing against... it's not Morris over those guys, it's Morris instead of those guys. There is no ranking on a hof ballot. If a voter puts in ten names, he is under no obligation to put in the ten "best" names. I personally wouldn't vote for Morris (as I don't think he is even hovg) but anybody who has a ten man ballot, can justify their vote.


This is semantics. Ryan is saying Morris is more hall of fame worthy (in this particular year) than Mussina, Walker, etc. I'm sure there's a bit of strategic voting involved, but that's still an ass-headed opinion (in my opinion). Trammell is in virtually the same boat as Morris being at the back end of his eligibility, so any kind of strategic voting should include him along with Morris. Also Kent is likely to drop below 5% this year, he needs all the votes he can get.
   56. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 16, 2013 at 11:39 AM (#4618797)
Trammell is in virtually the same boat as Morris being at the back end of his eligibility, so any kind of strategic voting should include him along with Morris.


Trammell and Morris aren't in anything close to the same boat. Strategically speaking, Trammell should be dropped. He has no chance of getting elected by the BBWAA, so he's in a much different position than Morris (not that Jack is going in either, but at least that hope isn't totally farfetched).

   57. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 16, 2013 at 11:40 AM (#4618799)
When Boggs entered the ballot, Rice (not teammates but same team)


Rice and Boggs were teammates for eight seasons including a fairly famous pennant winner (they finished 3rd and 7th in MVP voting that year).
   58. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 16, 2013 at 11:42 AM (#4618800)
Bob Ryan's ballots, 2013-2014: seven carryovers, adds Maddux, Glavine, Thomas (+3)


Has anybody who's shared their ballot so far actually added a vote for a holdover candidate? I haven't seen any and I've seen more than one ballot where one or more holdover candidates were dropped to make room for new guys. Craig Biggio isn't getting elected unless people who didn't vote for him last year change their mind and vote for him this time.
   59. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 16, 2013 at 12:18 PM (#4618838)
General kudos to Ryan and everyone else who publicizes the ballot. I was listening to some college football podcasts last week, and Heisman voters are prohibited from revealing their votes, so the speakers were all dancing around their ballots while conceding that Jameis Winston was going to be a runaway winner.
   60. PreservedFish Posted: December 16, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4618859)
I would just vote for my top 10 guys.
   61. flournoy Posted: December 16, 2013 at 12:54 PM (#4618875)
Strategically speaking, Trammell should be dropped.


Who appointed you as the arbiter of other people's strategies? I think you're making the mistake of assuming that anyone voting "strategically" has the same goals as you.
   62. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 16, 2013 at 01:17 PM (#4618893)

Who appointed you as the arbiter of other people's strategies?


A little more anger than I expected.

Trammell is in his 13th year on the ballot. He has never cracked 40 percent of the vote. He can't get elected by the BBWAA. It's a shame, he deserves it. But that's reality.

It's generally understood that the ballot is massively overcrowded. Efforts to keep deserving (but hopeless) candidates like Palmeiro or Sosa on the ballot are understandable, but misguided in my estimation (and I assumed that everyone's post is prefaced with an unstated "In My Opinion"), as they will merely leave next year's ballot (and the ones after) with the exact same problem that exists now.

Jack Morris is, at least, close enough to election that maintaining support for him in this, his final go-around, is defensible*. He is not in "virtually the same boat" as Trammell, which is what I was arguing.

* From the standpoint of electability, not his meager record of performance.
   63. flournoy Posted: December 16, 2013 at 01:42 PM (#4618918)
If I came off as angry in any way whatsoever, then I have completely failed to convey my tone.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
aleskel
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogDesign Room: Top 10 Logos in MLB History.
(27 - 9:14am, Apr 18)
Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit

NewsblogFletcher: Foes have slowed Trout in one category so far - steals
(2 - 9:13am, Apr 18)
Last: sinicalypse

NewsblogOrioles launch D.C. invasion with billboard near Nationals Park
(19 - 9:09am, Apr 18)
Last: Chris Needham

NewsblogNightengale: Pujols nears 500 home runs...and no one seems to care
(79 - 9:07am, Apr 18)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread March, 2014
(882 - 9:06am, Apr 18)
Last: Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14!

NewsblogOTP April 2014: BurstNET Sued for Not Making Equipment Lease Payments
(1585 - 9:03am, Apr 18)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-18-2014
(1 - 9:00am, Apr 18)
Last: Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings

NewsblogRobothal: What a relief! A’s could use bullpen differently than other teams
(8 - 8:22am, Apr 18)
Last: Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum

NewsblogGleeman: Mets minor league team is hosting “Seinfeld night”
(140 - 8:21am, Apr 18)
Last: Greg K

Jim's Lab NotesWe're Moved! (And Burst.net can bite me!)
(101 - 8:16am, Apr 18)
Last: zonk

NewsblogOT: The NHL is finally back thread, part 2
(139 - 7:58am, Apr 18)
Last: PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth)

NewsblogDaniel Bryan's 'YES!' chant has spread to the Pirates' dugout
(72 - 7:40am, Apr 18)
Last: Doris from Rego Park

NewsblogChris Resop - The Most Interesting Reliever in the World
(20 - 6:17am, Apr 18)
Last: MuttsIdolCochrane

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2014
(306 - 2:50am, Apr 18)
Last: theboyqueen

NewsblogGeorge Brett, Inspiration for the Song “Royals”, Meets Lorde
(29 - 2:25am, Apr 18)
Last: vortex of dissipation

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.4327 seconds
52 querie(s) executed