Baseball Primer Newsblog
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Saturday, May 31, 2008
“Bill James Online is the place to “hang” with Bill James”...and Tango does just that.
Tango: What’s the most a team would want to pay to have Bonds on his team? If he accepted league minimum, would you have a whole bunch of teams lining up? The suggestion is that if his fair value, outside of distractions, is 10MM this year, then those distractions are costing him 9.6MM$. But, if there are many teams lining up at league minimum, there must be one left standing who would accept to pay 2MM (basically accepting that his distraction is worth saving 8MM$). That he hasn’t signed tells me that teams are valuing his distractions as worth more than 10MM (if that’s his fair value), and therefore has negative value. I find it hard to believe that his distraction-ness could be that costly to a team.
...I’m not convinced that there is any team that is valuing his “distractions” at anything more than maybe a couple of hundred thousand. But there is a very low value on winning 74 games rather than 72, and the reality is that most of the teams that could reasonably sign him aren’t going to win 80 games.
I’ve got a problem here. I was granting that the only way to make him value-less is to give him a huge penalty on the peripherals. But, he’s really saying that the teams that would be interested in him are non-contenders, and therefore, don’t need to bother to sign him for one year. I agree with the conclusion, but I disagree with the premise (the potential teams are non-existant).
for his generous support.
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