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Friday, October 19, 2012

THE BOOK—How to calculate WAR

At least one way to calculate WAR.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 19, 2012 at 09:58 AM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, war

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: October 19, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4276505)
Am I wrong to dislike this counting stats -> rate stats (wOBA) -> counting stats (batting runs) that everyone seems to be using. It feels counter-intuitive. Each discrete event should have a discrete value. Hitters do not interact with themselves.
   2. Scott Ross Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4276611)
Murray Chass still won't read this.
   3. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: October 19, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4276630)
I think the real reason Chass can't visit all these sites to read is he's probably the last person on Netzero Dial-Up and since he clicks on every banner ad telling him he has a virus, his computer is bloated with adware and he can only load one page a day.
   4. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4276638)

Interesting, although to me the derivation of the baseline replacement level as well as the replacement levels at each position is a big question that this doesn't address.
   5. G.W.O. Posted: October 19, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4276671)
That's all very well ... but what is it good for?

(I will never tire of this joke)
   6. AROM Posted: October 19, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4276673)
Dave,

This article did what you are asking for: Replacement Level Article

Am I wrong to dislike this counting stats -> rate stats (wOBA) -> counting stats (batting runs) that everyone seems to be using. It feels counter-intuitive. Each discrete event should have a discrete value. Hitters do not interact with themselves.


Not everyone starts with a rate stat. BBref does not. Sean is using Pete Palmer's batting runs now, which is a bit different than what I did on my site, but the essence is giving .47 runs for a single, 1.4 for a homer, and so on. I may not have the exact weights used, but that's how it's done.

I also don't like the intermediate step of calculating a WOBA, because it's unnecessary. But it should get you the same result in the end. If I took my method and divided my events by plate appearances, and then at the end get batting runs by multiplying that rate by PA again, I'd get the same answer in the end. But it's a waste of a step.
   7. JJ1986 Posted: October 19, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4276684)
It's a waste of a step, and I also think it makes WAR look much more complicated than it is. Someone might read and understand this article,yet still feel like WAR is obscure and incalculable because they don't know how to calculate wOBA.
   8. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 19, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4276891)

AROM - thanks, that is pretty helpful. The pitching side would be interesting too but I'm sure I can find that link if I search for it.
   9. Eric P. Posted: October 19, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4277231)
I think the real reason Chass can't visit all these sites to read is he's probably the last person on Netzero Dial-Up and since he clicks on every banner ad telling him he has a virus, his computer is bloated with adware and he can only load one page a day.


"Oh my God, Murray, when you check your email, you go to Alta Vista and type ‘please go to yahoo.com?’ God, Murray, you don't deserve the internet!"
   10. bobm Posted: October 20, 2012 at 01:09 AM (#4277271)
Murraychass.com
This report is updated on (2012-10-20)

Overview

Murraychass.com is ranked #2781004 in the world according to the three-month Alexa traffic rankings. This site has been scored 60/100 in teqpad website grading. Murraychass.com is getting approximately 395 page views and making approximately $1 daily from advertisement. murraychass.com is hosted with YAHOO in United States.


http://www.teqpad.com/www/murraychass.com
   11. shoewizard Posted: October 21, 2012 at 09:27 AM (#4277869)
Without BTF does Murraychass.com even exist ? Who else reads that stuff other than those that actually bother to click through on the articles that are linked here. (I never do)
   12. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: October 21, 2012 at 09:33 AM (#4277870)
I know an old SABR guy who likes Murray's stuff. So there's that guy.

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