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Sunday, October 14, 2012

THE BOOK—Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Sabermetrician bites sabermetrician.

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote this article, explaining why and how O’day can be a “lefty-killer” despite being an under-handed reliever with mostly a fastball and slider (the pitches with the most platoon differential).

I wrote this scathing comment in response to the article. Here is it verbatim:

RTFA to see it.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 14, 2012 at 09:35 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

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   1. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: October 14, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4269582)
As usual, I think MGL makes some good points, but he's so abrasive about it that he loses some of his audience.
   2. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: October 14, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4270130)
Now MGL says he "will no longer be contributing to" The Book Blog.

Link
   3. The District Attorney Posted: October 14, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4270132)
Whoever wins, we lose...
   4. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 14, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4270137)
His career platoon ratio is 1.11. The average lefty pitcher has a platoon ratio of 1.13, so he is right around what we would expect from a typical lefty.

But, we have to expect that a side-arming lefty who throws mostly sliders and fastballs (the pitches with the greatest platoon differentials) would have a true platoon split of more than 1.13.

So we would regress his 1.11 actual platoon ratio to something maybe like 1.20 or so. After all he has only faced 364 lefty batters in his entire career! That is the equivalent of around 85 innings of pitching to lefties only! Do you really think that there is not going to be enormous fluctuation in that .293? There will be.


Maybe I'm misunderstanding but it seems like MGL is treating O'Day as if he's a lefty.
   5. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: October 14, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4270144)
MGL did think O'Day was a lefty, someone called him on it, and MGL sorta corrected himself before the whole conversation got very confusing.
   6. JJ1986 Posted: October 14, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4270146)
MGL just quit the blog; I assume because of the comment thread on this post.
   7. VoodooR Posted: October 14, 2012 at 10:01 PM (#4270387)
That's really weird and melodramatic. And kinda funny, too.
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: October 14, 2012 at 10:06 PM (#4270397)
Now MGL says he "will no longer be contributing to" The Book Blog.


Maybe he's incognito.
   9. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 14, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4270482)
heh, sosh.
anyway - not sure why this would be the thread to make mgl quit.
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 14, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4270550)
A wizard did it.
   11. pezzonovante Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4270681)
MGL claims he doesn't drink. But if you look at his ultra aggressive comments out of nowhere, and with zero provocation on part of Dave Cameron, and then the sudden apology, it's hard to believe. Or maybe he has psychological issues? Has anyone ever actually seen this guy? How old is he? What's his job?
   12. shoewizard Posted: October 15, 2012 at 02:41 AM (#4270694)
A wizard did it.


I had nothing to do with it.
   13. JoeHova Posted: October 15, 2012 at 03:13 AM (#4270696)
Has anyone ever actually seen this guy? How old is he?

He's in this video, where Brian Kenny asks him a few questions about some of The Book's findings.
   14. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: October 15, 2012 at 03:35 AM (#4270698)
I doubt it because guys that are as stubborn, dogmatic, and defensive as you rarely learn much, because they never think they are wrong. You may say the same thing about me, but I am a lot older and I have learned a lot of these lessons. Plus, I have already forgot more about sabermetrics than you know…


At that point, the right thing to do is delete the paragraph. Or at least back up a couple of sentences and try to go in a different direction.

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