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1. The Essex Snead Posted: November 30, 2007 at 02:38 PM (#2628981)I wrote this someplace else, and I write it again: I don't understand why the Yankees are not commoditizing Igawa, be it to the Twins, to get pieces that the Twins want or to get middle relief help.
Cripes...I lived at Pier Platters. Owner Bill Ryan and I used to be drinking pardners and pour over stinkified tapes of bands that wanted to play Maxwells.
CD's, The pathetic Sam Goody across the street and the ridiculi yuppie explo of Nirvanabees crashing the store killed it off.
Exactly. But assuming that this is not a harbinger of something major, what's so bad about getting a righthanded hitting backup infielder, give that Betemit should never be allowed to enter the righty batter's box again, except as a baserunner on his way to touch the plate? Do we really think it's important to save PAs for Andy Phillips? Are we salivating at the prospect of Shelley Duncan as the every day 1B?
Compared to Mark Loretta at 1B? Forgive me, but I'm drooling.
makes me nervous, makes me run
Somehow those lyrics fit my feelings right now. Jesus, dear God that I don't really believe in, please tell me that Cano is not going any where!
1)A Loretta-Betemit platoon at 2nd would have a ~800 OPS
2)Which is not that much of a downgrade from Cano
3)So if you trade Cano for Santana, you end up with a substantial short-term upgrade...
Cano is my favorite bisexual Yankee (sorry, Alex!), and I think it'd be a stupid move, but they'd improve in 2008...
but didn't you know? everyone on earth has the exact same split ratio of 1.14.
don't know about switch hitters, so i don't know betemit's exact "true" split ratio.
Cano/Cabrera/Jackson for Santana I can live with.
but didn't you know? everyone on earth has the exact same split ratio of 1.14.
He is a switch hitter, so those platoon ratios don't apply.
I don't recall saying anything about Loretta being the regular 1B either. Assuming that the Yankees will carry twelve pitchers:
Abreu
Cabrera
Cano
Damon
Jeter
Matsui
Posada
Rodriguez
Betemit
Duncan
Giambi
Loretta
Molina
Is this really so terrible? Is keeping Phillips or re-signing Mientkiewicz better? Is it so god-awful important to have a 5th OF if you can throw Duncan out there for a game or two in a pinch and bring up Brett Gardner if somebody gets hurt?
Or what catomi said.
Cano/Cabrera/Jackson for Santana I can live with.
Seriously? You'd would really rather see Cano traded than Hughes or Joba? Are you a Yankee fan?
Given that the Twins just traded away Garza, aren't they going to have to get back a starting pitcher if they trade Santana?
If you don't think Kei Igawa can provide you middle relief help himself, why do you think any other team would be willing to trade you a better pitcher for him?
In name only. He'd be almost 100 OPS points better against lefties if he just batted from the left side all the time and could manage that typical 1.14 split.
Man, I loved Pier Platters. One year I was alone for my birthday, so I spent the afternoon there and picked out whatever I wanted for myself.
Plus, it was the only place I've ever been to that carried the Boss Hog album with Cristina naked on the sleeve.
Cano for Santana straight up I could live with. Cano plus anything else worth a damn is way too much.
Yes, because I think that you have to add less to Cano. He fits the Twins need perfectly.
I think the alternative to Cano/Cabrera/Jackson is probably Hughes/Kennedy/Cabrera/Jackson or Tabata.
I also think Cano's offense is much more replaceable. Offense can be bought on the FA market (Andruw Jones maybe?).
SP is impossible to find.
Categorically No. I'd trade either Cano or Hughes, plus 2 of Melky/Jackson/Tabata/Kennedy, but only 1 SP total (so no Hughes and Kennedy in the same package).
That's way better than any other offer out there.
I didn't realize Chase Utley was on the market.
I didn't realize Chase Utley was on the market.
Not at 2B, but by upgrading elsewhere, i.e. CF or 1B. If you trade both Hughes and Kennedy you're looking at paying Carlos Silva 50M/4, and that's just scary.
Pass. How about you Red Sox fans: losing Pedroia and Buchholz but getting Santana back?
It almost makes Pavano's deal worthy. Almost.
I don't like either of those deals for the Yankees, but I would much rather it be Hughes/Cabrera/Jackson than Cano/Cabrera/Jackson.
I also think Cano's offense is much more replaceable. Offense can be bought on the FA market (Andruw Jones maybe?).
Umm, Andruw plays 2B? Most 2b are basically terrible hitters. Losing Cano means the Yankees would have a hole in the lineup. The upgrade on offense that Jones may be over the Yankees' current OFer's would be totally negated and then some by the downgrade from Cano to whoever replaces him.
I think that would be a poor deal on the Yankees part. Over the course of a season Cano contributes almost as much as Santana, IIRC. Then, you're adding a prospect who could flame out (Yankees win), but also could be average (Yankees lose)or something more (Yankees lose by a wider margin)
Umm, No. Mark Loretta put up a 90 OPS+ last year, can probably get that to 100 by platooning w/Betemit see above. Jones expected is probably 115-120, assuminglast year was a fluke (I think so). Cano was at 120, Melky at 90.
It's pretty close, and Johan is a huge upgrade over Kennedy.
So, Cano/Melky/Kennedy for Santana, if you upgrade CF to the 110 OPS+ range, and get a 95 OPS+ at 2B makes the Yankees MUCH better.
Assuming $ don't matter.
Yeah, I assumed he was taking the Cairo role, which, IMO, is an upgrade. Cano isn't going anywhere.
Not at 2B, but by upgrading elsewhere, i.e. CF or 1B. If you trade both Hughes and Kennedy you're looking at paying Carlos Silva 50M/4, and that's just scary.
Cano is the 2nd best 2nd baseman in baseball, and it's not just his bat at an up the middle defensive position that makes him special but his defense as well. You simply can't replace him right now unless the Phillies lose their mind (Brian Roberts is right behind him, but is substantially older and Cano has way more upside). I'd much rather have Cano and Silva then Hughes and Kennedy.
It's pretty close, and Johan is a huge upgrade over Kennedy.
So, Cano/Melky/Kennedy for Santana, if you upgrade CF to the 110 OPS+ range, and get a 95 OPS+ at 2B makes the Yankees MUCH better.
Assuming $ don't matter.
Can Betemit play 2B? Even if he can, how does the combo of his defense and Loretta's compare to Cano's? Also, even if everything you said comes to pass and the Yankees are even on offense and get the upgrade of having Santana, that makes them better for '08. What about '09, '10, '11, etc. Loretta will be 36 next year(I wouldn't be surprised if he failed to match even the 89 OPS+ he put up last year), Cano will be 25...
One deal involves entirely unproven talent and the other involves talent with ML-verfied reason for hope.
Second, I'm not sure I even like Cano + Kennedy for Santana. Cano is extremely valuable: cost-controlled plus glove at 2B that hits better than the Yankees corner OF. Trade him, and you need to get a superior glove at 2B AND you need to find replacement offense, because there are no good-glove 2B available who hit like Cano.
I don't mind losing Hughes + Kennedy for Santana, because: a. Santana alone will pitch two-thirds of the innings they would have in 2008; and b. Unlike Cano, Kennedy's probable production can be replaced on the FA market, by signing a Carlos Silva or a Job Lieber. Paying a 4th starter $12M a year or whatever is a hit the Yankees can withstand more easily than giving up one of the two best 2B in the league.
As for other possible trading chips, Igawa is not one. As Kiko pointed out, the Yankees have a dire need for middle relief and if Igawa has any value that's where he'll go first. And any deal that include Melky, Tabata and Jackson seems dubious because it means the Yankees would be cleaning out their system in one fell swoop.
I've said before that any trade to get Santana will exact some pain on the team getting him, but the Yankees shouldn't do any deal that involves enough pain to stun an elephant.
I wouldn't want to get a reliever from the Padres. It would pretty much be a textbook case of buying high. I have no idea what they're going to do with that bullpen.
The problem is the inherent volatility of pitching, even really good pitching. The Beckett trade looked like a disaster in 2006, but in 2007 Beckett's a god and Lowell is a WS MVP. Meanwhile, Hanley's a major league hitter who needs a new position, and Sanchez is just another injured pitching porspect. Who knows what it looks like next year or three years from now?
But if there was one position where you might seriously consider trading your budding or established star for pitching, wouldn't it have to be 2B, given that even really good players there don't generally have the longest shelf lives?
Because he sucks an noone wants him. Using big words doesn't make him suck anyless.
That someone ovrstates what it means to be a major league hitter. He's a great major league hitter, and offensive player, regardless of position.
IE, it's true that 2B tend to burn out more quickly, but Cano is only 25. You have to bet he's got 5 or 6 good years at 2B left. Meanwhile, Santana is likely only going to be SANTANA for, at the most, 5 or 6 more years, although probably less. Which means you're trading the good seasons of Cano, who adds as much or more value each year than Santana, for the good seasons of Santana and some of Santana's decline years. Santana is a singular talent but so is Cano. Not worth it.
Both Ramirez and Sanchez were A to A- type prospects, roughly in the neighborhood of Hughes and Cano (I think Hanley was much more highly rated as a minor leaguer than Cano was so that balances the difference between Hughes and Sanchez).
All I'm saying is that a trade like that can really work, even if it's hard to forsee it at the time, the way I didn't forsee getting Beckett for all that young talent working. And Beckett was nearly as accomplished at the time as Santana is now, despite the WS 2003 performance.
I'm not sure what you're saying here. Isn't the relevant issue what they're worth at the time of trade, or potential trade? Robinson Cano, now, is far more valuable than Ramirez was then. Ramirez was an elite prospect whose star was dimming a bit, Cano is a star player. Hughes is/was also worth more than Sanchez.
EDIT: Granted Beckett v. Santana makes it more reasonable, so maybe that's what you're referring to.
Cano is 25 next year. I'm not worried now if he's more likely to fall off a cliff at 32. He's also one of only two or three bonafide stars (Kendrick might make it four sometime soon) at 2nd base. He is the only combination of good hitting and defense on the team. He's the only young player in the infield. He's taken a role of leadership on the team and he, along with Melky, has loosened up the dugout, which I think is pretty important. He, not A-rod or Jeter is the future of this franchise for the the next decade. Trading him for anything would be a disaster for this team because of his value on the field and the value his youth, energy and leadership bring to a team of over 30 veterans.
And that's where Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy come in!!! Don't forget, Horne is coming soon and Brackman and Betances in a couple years!!!
Whereas Cano is right this instant an All-Star caliber player and has been for two full seasons. That's a huge difference.
Right? Or am I missing something?
My view is taking into account both MLEs and scouting evaluations. At the time of the trade, I can't imagine Hanley's MLEs were any good and I know the scouting evals were down on him from previous years. Taking into account MLEs at the time as well as scouting evaluations at the time, I also don't see any way Sanchez was/is ahead or even tied with Hughes. So...one of us is missing something somewhere...I think.
No. The best team in the regular season rarely wins the tournament, and while the addition of Santana may make the Sox the best team in the regular season, it hardly writes off the Yanks' chances in the postseason in the near term.
Skinner, you have a point and I know from yesterday's "Must Stop the Sox" thread that some Yankees fans here agree. A starter like Santana becomes more valuable than most position players in the postseason, and a team will have to overpay to trade for him. But there's overpaying and then there's overpaying.
I'm not putting forth ridiculous fanboy ideas like suggesting Kennedy + Tabata for Santana. But Cano is untouchable, and trading him provides as much of a disadvantage versus the Red Sox as gaining Santana. You can argue that Melky is not worth that much, and so a package of, say, Hughes + Kennedy + Melky + Tabata would not be enough. Fair enough, if you think Melky is just going to be a good 4th OF (I happen to think he'll be worth more), or if you think the Twins need two MLB-ready position players instead of two pitchers. I can accept the idea that the Yankees' trading chips don't fit the Twins' needs. But if the Yankees have to cripple themselves to stop Santana from going to the Red Sox, it's not worth it.
You're not talking about post-rookie year for Sanchez though. You're looking at the time when he was one of the top 30 or so prospects in baseball. Right now, Hughes is coming off of being, at worst, tied for the top pitching prospect in baseball spot, and having a rookie season that was hampered by a hamstring strain, but also featured a near no-no and a memorable postseason relief outing. I just don't think it's reasonable to say their value is the same at the relevant time periods.
Wasn't trying to minimize his bat. Should have thrown in an adjective or three.
IE, couldn't the same thing happen with Cano and Hughes? Cano getting fat and Hughes hurting his arm? Wouldn't ou like the security f having a CY-type starter in there every 5 days?
That was my point exactly. And of course, Santana could just as easily be the one who gets hurt next year or the year after. Just as Sanchez could bounce back and Beckett could get hurt.
you're trading the good seasons of Cano, who adds as much or more value each year than Santana, for the good seasons of Santana and some of Santana's decline years. Santana is a singular talent but so is Cano. Not worth it.
I was just making a general observation about 2B, and throwing the question out there. I said I could live with Cano for Santana straight up. I didn't say it was a clear win for the Yankees. IOW, I'm not trying to sell Cano short. Anyway, it's almost certainly moot, because even if the Yanks might offer Cano, the Twins won't trade Santana for anyone straight up.
Right? Or am I missing something?
You're missing that Cano is an established major league all-star, not a guy who might be an all-star some day based on his MLEs.
You're right that the Yanks would still have a chance, but any team facing Beckett and Santana 4 times in the playoffs is going to be at a significant disadvantage. The Yanks (really, any other team) wouldn't have anything approaching that. The new playoff format would seem to favor those teams with the best top 2 pitchers.
I refer you to post 62.
And both the Yankees and Red Sox know that, and so know that Santana has disproportionate value in the postseason. Meanwhile, if the Twins are looking for MLB-experienced pitchers, the Angels have the most trading chips, and a 1-2-3 of Santana-Lackey-Escobar/Weaver would be pretty awesome. It'll be interesting to see how this works out.
So every team in baseball should do what it can to prevent too many dominant pitchers from congregating in the same place. And that doesn't change, whether that place be Boston, Anaheim, or even NYC.
If the Red Sox FO thought that the acquisition of Santana would lead to an unprecedented string of championships, they'd have done it already.
From your hyperbolic tone, I thought you were being sarcastic in that post. (Maybe you were?) It would have to be the best case scenario where Hughes/Chamberlain in the near future are as good as Beckett/Santana (unless you expect both to fall apart a bit). I'm not a fan of either the Yanks or Red Sox, but I have to think that the Yanks have much more to lose here if he goes to the Sox then vice versa.
Re: 74 - I agree completely.
One could be a great player, one is. This isn't just Cano and Lowrie. To a lesser extent, you could say the same thing about Ellsbury and Austin Jackson.
Weren't they 4th in runs scored?
Well, now I'm confused. I thought we were talking about trading Cano now, not two years ago. The fact that he already is what Lowrie might or might not some day become has a lot of real value. And perception obviously matters a great deal to GMs. First of all, there's the reality that they have to deal with the PR fallout of the moves they make. For Epstein or Cashman, this might be little more than taking crap on talk radio for a couple of weeks, but in many markets, it's about selling tickets, which is a substantially bigger deal.
Yeah. I think you might be missing the whole same age thing, kevin. Cano isn't just established, he also has to project better going forward. But again, I'm not sure how this morphed into a Lowrie vs Cano debate. In the real world, Cano could headline a trade for any elite player in MLB, and Lowrie would be the second or third guy in the package.
I believe in MLEs. But I'm pretty sure they come with bigger error bars than actual MLB performance. So it seems logical to put just a little bit less faith in them. But again, in this specific example, it's not a case of one player's MLE matching the other player's MLB performance. Lowrie's age 23 MLE is clearly not as good as Cano's age 23 MLB line.
There are too many times when a prospect peaks in the minors (remember International League Player of the Year Hensley Meulens, anyone?) and for whatever reason just can't hack it in the majors. So MLB numbers should have more weight than MLEs in evaluating a player.
I was actually doing a little research last week. The Angels could easily score a bunch more runs next season. Hunter over GMJ in CF is a big improvement (offensively and defensively), a GMJ/Garret Anderson Platoon in LF instead of Anderson is a huge improvement, there aren't any players that are likely to decline, most of the young players will improve (Kotchman/Mathis/Napoli/Kendrick/Morales)... And they could easily increase their run prodcution by running into a few less outs.
They scored 822 this year. They could easily score 870 runs next year.
Isn't it a bit disingenuous to make the case for MLE's and laugh at the Yankees' Three Rookie Rotation™? I seem to remember you doing so, but if you didn't, my apologies.
well neither do you- you are more than willing to take Ellsbury's 120 mlb at bats over his 1000 minor league at bats. I'm sure if Ellsbury had a first 100 mlb at bats like Pedroia you wouldn't be doing that.
You talk about all Sawx prospects the way some Mets fans talk about Carlos Gomez.
Lowrie has 1072 minor league at bats and he's hit .291/.386/.448. He'll be 24 next year.
Cano at age 22 in the majors hit .297/.320/.458, at age 23: .342/.365/.525 and age 24: .306/.353/.488
Cano at age 21 hit .283/.338/.457 in AA/AAA, at 22 he was hitting .333/.368/.574 in AAA when called up. Lowrie at 21 was in the New York Penn League (.328/.429/.448)- actually as a 21 year old former NCAA player he had no business being in the NYPL, as a 22 year old he hit .262/.352/.374 in the Carolina League.
He's certainly behind Cano even if you have 100% faith in MLEs- defensively I've been reading that he won't be able to hold down a middle IF position in the majors- but I'm not going to put too much stock in that because I heard the same thing about Cano- and it wasn't true*.
Actually, based upon his MLEs I'd prefer Lowrie to Stephen Drew...
* I've decided to not take anyone's "word" on prospect defense anymore, so often I've heard that some guy is great defensively- and he's not even mediocre- he's actually bad, or that someone can't play 2B or CF and it turns out they can. I really think that too many scouts look at an 18 year old, look at how a player fields at 18- think about what that player will look like physically in 5 years, then decide he's a good fielder or not- and NEVER revisits and adjusts that thinking. The problem is that a clumsy oaf at 18 may actually figure out how to field, the guy you think will fill out and lose the quickness to play SS- doesn't and vice versa.
I think Cano is an argument against looking at aggregate minor league performance over performance by level.
Why should we "let's say" when we know what the players actually did? My disagreement was about the specific comparison, not about the value of MLEs. At age 23, Cano and Lowrie hit almost exactly the same thing; except one did it in MLB and the other split time between AA and AAA.
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