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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Calm-Before-The-Storm WS Chatter and Prediction Thread (Of Doom)

Exactly what it says on the tin.

Gamingboy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:15 AM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. S.F. Giangst Posted: October 23, 2012 at 05:24 AM (#4280370)
I shall surely go mad if I read once more that "Kozma broke the wrong way" on Pence's double. He didn't. He went exactly where he was supposed to go given the tiny amount of time he had to read the ball as it came off the bat, well before it started to tail back towards second base.

The ball was almost to the infield skin before he could start to reverse himself. Not his fault. Just years of experience and the world-class reflexes of a major league shortstop allowed him to miss the play by the right margin to look stupid to stupid people.

If you watch the slo-mo, you can see that the spin rate of the ball changes after each contact with the bat. If the bat only hits it twice, Kozma still gets it in all likelihood.
   2. 3Com Park Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:14 AM (#4280373)
Of course, Kozma probably would have booted it anyway.
   3. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 23, 2012 at 08:01 AM (#4280384)
I shall surely go mad if I read once more that "Kozma broke the wrong way" on Pence's double. He didn't. He went exactly where he was supposed to go given the tiny amount of time he had to read the ball as it came off the bat, well before it started to tail back towards second base.

I've been watching baseball a long time and I don't recall seeing a ball do that off a bat before so I don't blame him for that one, either. It was just a really bad break for the Cards, but the Giants still outplayed them in the game on the whole.
   4. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 23, 2012 at 08:05 AM (#4280385)
I hate to give kudos to Fox about anything other than the Simpsons, but they really did a great job of capturing and showing Pence's hit.
   5. phredbird Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:17 AM (#4280405)
It was just a really bad break for the Cards, but the Giants still outplayed them in the game on the whole.


the cards got punked over the last 3 games. there were some bad breaks mixed in but their hitters didn't do squat and the pitching blew up. all credit to the giants for pulling their act together over the last 3 games.
   6. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:35 AM (#4280416)
Giants will win this series in 4 games, 5 tops.
   7. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4280418)
phredbird, in addition, the Cards' fielding was not very good.
   8. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:55 AM (#4280426)
phredbird, in addition, the Cards' fielding was not very good.
Particularly when Kozma broke the wrong way on Pence's ball!

(Ducks)
   9. BDC Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4280431)
I usually predict a series based on pitching matchups. The Tigers are set through seven games with all the time in the world to craft and fine-tune stuff. No idea yet who the Giants are starting. Therefore the Giants will probably win in 4 or 5, as Crosseyed predicts :)

I noted in some other thread that the only three Series in the 7-game LCS "era" that have pitted winners in 4 against winners in 7 have all gone to the winners in 7: 1988, 2006, and 2007. '88 and '06 were upsets, IIRC (in retrospect they should have been), and in '88 in particular, the fact that the A's could start with Stewart while the Dodgers had to use Hershiser in their 7th game was seen as a big factor among prognosticators. Then fate intervened. '06 still seems like a goofy random event to me. 2007, by contrast, very clearly pitted two AL teams that seemed distinctly superior to the Rockies, and the outcome was no surprise at all.

This year, I dunno. Verlander rested and ready for Games One and Five would seem to make the Tigers distinct favorites, but who knows? Is their pitching going to be deep enough? The Rangers won a messy one off Verlander in ALCS Game One last year and then a protracted Game Two, and never looked back. The Giants are certainly capable of as much.

No, I'll actually play the smart bet and predict Tigers in six.
   10. The Ghost fouled out, but stays in the game Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4280456)
I heard that winners in 7 (vs. 4) had won all three times, too. There is something to be said for momentum vs. rust. I personally would like to see the Giants win.

However, Tigers in 6.
   11. dr. scott Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4280457)
Well I have to hope for a Giants win, but in addition I already lost a bet to my Detroit friend when they beat the As in 5. I'm hoping to go even, as shipping beer across the country is a pain.
   12. JL Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4280483)
I shall surely go mad if I read once more that "Kozma broke the wrong way" on Pence's double. He didn't. He went exactly where he was supposed to go given the tiny amount of time he had to read the ball as it came off the bat, well before it started to tail back towards second base.

While I don't disagree, Kozma had a really bad inning defensively, even if it was not all his fault. At the end of that play, his throw home was nowhere near the plate (not that it would likely have mattered). He also threw home with the bases loaded while in double-play depth. He was not close to getting the runner, but could have gotten the other runner at first. Finally, again with the bases loaded, his flip to the second baseman was very high and made the double play almost impossible. None of these were killers by themselves, but when they all happen in the same inning in game 7 of the NLCS, I can imagine that he won't be watching tapes of it any time soon.

I am rooting for the Tigers, and am excited over this first time WS match-up between the teams. I think Detroit has a slight edge, but the time off worries me.
   13. AROM Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4280492)
I've been watching baseball a long time and I don't recall seeing a ball do that off a bat before so I don't blame him for that one, either.


You probably have, but it's not until now that we've had the camera technology to show that.
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4280494)
Tigers in 4.

I hope I'm wrong on the number of games.

By the way, even if there's just one, will this set the record for most elimination games in a postseason (division series era obviously, but excluding play-in games)? By my count, we've already seen 14.

And SF Giangst was absolutely correct in Post 1. Balls hit to the left side by righthanded hitters don't tail.
   15. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4280501)
I don't know if the time off would worry me so much as the fact that the Tigers aren't playing the Yankees again. I thought they were kind of lucky to get past the A's, relying heavily on two Verlander starts in a short series AND some defensive follies by the opposing team.

The Tigers' offense is certainly capable of looking like a group of mashers when they're on, but outside of their two clinching victories this postseason, they haven't exactly looked imposing at the dish. Having Verlander at your disposal for two games certainly bodes in the Tigers' favor, but I'm genuinely curious as to how the rest of the rotation stacks up against a non-Yankees lineup.
   16. tshipman Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4280513)
Giants in 6, I think. I think you beat the Tigers by putting the ball in play. The Giants are good at that. They have some iron gloves on that team, and Demon Young is going to be playing the field.

If the Giants go down 3-2 or 3-1 and win it in seven, I will have to assume that Bochy has sold his soul.
   17. just plain joe Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4280516)
Demon Young is going to be playing the field.


I know the man has some issues but calling him a demon seems a bit much.
   18. JL Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4280518)
The Tigers' offense is certainly capable of looking like a group of mashers when they're on, but outside of their two clinching victories this postseason, they haven't exactly looked imposing at the dish. Having Verlander at your disposal for two games certainly bodes in the Tigers' favor, but I'm genuinely curious as to how the rest of the rotation stacks up against a non-Yankees lineup.

They did well against the A's. Ignoring Games 1 and 5 (due to Verlander pitching), they gave up 2 runs in the Game 3 loss and 4 runs in the Game 4 loss, three of which were due to Valverde (who even the Yankees could hit). Fister gave up 2 runs in 7 innings, with Benoit blowing the save and requiring the Tigers to rally.

This Tigers' rotation won't make anyone forget the 90s Braves, but I dont think it will be easy for the Giants.
   19. Spahn Insane Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4280519)
Giants in 7. Don't really have a rooting interest in this one, other than for an entertaining series; I like both teams fine.
   20. esseff Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4280521)
It was just a really bad break for the Cards, but the Giants still outplayed them in the game on the whole.


Going out on a limb . . .
   21. BourbonSamurai Is a Lazy Nogoodnik Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4280530)
The end of last night's game was really fun in the rain like that. I was amazed Bochy had the guts to go to a pitching change.

Barry Zito, game one starter. Whod'athunkit
   22. Booey Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4280534)
Tigers in 6.

How many people picked the Tigers in the original playoff prediction thread before the start of the postseason? I'm four wins away from appearing much smarter than I actually am... :-)
   23. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4280556)
If the Giants go down 3-2 or 3-1 and win it in seven, I will have to assume that Bochy has sold his soul.


Well he would probably be the only one at this point in Giants management to have one left.
   24. Bob Tufts Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4280558)
Apres Motte, le deluge.

As long as someone finally stuck a fork in the Cardinals (or wooden stake or silver bullet - sorry, I guess it is the Giants and/Royals connection in me coming out), my only care is that the World Series is well played - and goes 6 or 7 games.
   25. severian Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4280559)
I'm always for the NL team unless I find them particularly objectionable. Even though they vanquished my Reds, I like these Giants, and my man-crush on Buster Posey (whom I drafted in my NL-only Strat league two years ago at the cost of a first-rounder and two second-rounders) knows few bounds.

So using logical powers of deduction, I'm rooting for the Tigers to lead the series 3-1, which will allow the Giants to win out.
   26. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4280564)
With this matchup, the only original AL team the Giants haven't played is the Browns / Orioles.

Gotta go against my heart and with the Giants. Too many good contact hitters, not enough Grandersons and A-Rods for the Tigers' pitchers to make chumps of.
   27. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4280575)
Demon Young is going to be playing the field.


I've seen him called _elmon and _elm_n, but never Demon--are you implying he lacks leadership?

   28. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4280612)
This is the first World Series since 1954 to feature both league batting titlists. The Giants were also in that one.

-- MWE
   29. Booey Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4280633)
This is the first World Series since 1954 to feature both league batting titlists. The Giants were also in that one.


If Miggy and Posey win the MVP's - and that seems entirely possible - how often has a World Series featured both MVP winners?

Edit: Canseco and Kirk Gibson in 1988 were the last. Any others? Probably a lot in the pre-divisional title days...
   30. SoSH U at work Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4280638)

If Miggy and Posey win the MVP's - and that seems entirely possible - how often has a World Series featured both MVP winners?


It used to happen frequently when there were fewer teams and fewer playoff rounds. It hasn't happened in the wild card era (last time was 1988 - Gibson and Canseco).

   31. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4280641)

This is the first World Series since 1954 to feature both league batting titlists. The Giants were also in that one.


Even better -- all three batting titleists. Bet that's a record!
   32. Booey Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4280647)
One of us owes the other a coke, SoSH. Not sure which one. :-)
   33. Booey Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4280651)
This also means that the last 4 Triple Crown winners all made the World Series.
   34. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4280653)
Giants in 6

   35. SoSH U at work Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4280654)
Any others? Probably a lot in the pre-divisional title days...


In the divisional era, 1980 (Schmidt-Brett), 1976 (Morgan-Munson), 1975 (Morgan-Lynn), 1970 (Bench-Boog).


   36. Gamingboy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4280666)
Tigers in Six. I see the Giants maybe having initial advantage due to HF and no lay-off, but Tigers pitching will make difference.
   37. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: October 23, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4280689)
Yeah, I'm going with Le Tigre in 6 too. I might feel shaky about that if Verlander loses game 1.
   38. Dave Spiwak Posted: October 23, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4280700)
If the game was anything other than an academic exercise with the Giants up by 9 in the 9th, you've gotta figure that game gets delayed until the rain slows. I don't know if I've seen rain fall that hard without a stoppage of play. If the Giants are winning by 6 or less, Matheny is probably out there on the umps to stop the game.
   39. SoSH U at work Posted: October 23, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4280709)
If the Giants are winning by 6 or less, Matheny is probably out there on the umps to stop the game.


I don't know.* We don't have the data to tell (for obvious reasons, since playing in that was insane), but I wonder if those conditions are better or worse for scoring. My guess would be that, all things considered, teams would be more likely to score in weather like that than they would in normal conditions.

* It should be noted that Matheny might have made such a request for humanitarian reasons, as that can't be safe for a number of participants on both sides of the ball.





   40. Booey Posted: October 23, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4280775)
My guess would be that, all things considered, teams would be more likely to score in weather like that than they would in normal conditions.


Really? I'd think it would be pretty hard for the batters to see the ball well enough to get a good hit on it.
   41. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 23, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4280783)
The Giants seem destiny-ish, I pick them in 6.

That typed, I have pretty much guaranteed a Tiger sweep.
   42. SoSH U at work Posted: October 23, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4280804)
Really? I'd think it would be pretty hard for the batters to see the ball well enough to get a good hit on it.


I think the difficulty throwing strikes/difficulty fielding balls would trump any visibility issues, but I'm obviously just guessing.

   43. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: October 23, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4280810)
I have no notable problem with this Series. With that said, Buster Posey was out at second and no run has scored legally in that game.
   44. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: October 23, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4280836)
I think the difficulty throwing strikes/difficulty fielding balls would trump any visibility issues, but I'm obviously just guessing.


Heavy rain screws with pitching and hitting somewhat equally. If you have to pitch through a deluge, you want a fireballer on the mound, because your finesse/control guy is not gripping the ball well enough to be effective when it's dripping wet. That said, batters have no idea where the ball is going out to the hand, and umpires are going to expand the strike zone in the rain.

The real problem comes with fielding and running the bases. It's damned near impossible to run through mud, must less start and stop quickly.
   45. SoSH U at work Posted: October 23, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4280845)
and umpires are going to expand the strike zone in the rain.


That's a good point.
   46. zonk Posted: October 23, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4280847)
I'm gonna take Tigers in 6.

I should say that I'm quite pleased to see that it's Tigers/Giants, not Yankees/Cardinals... because I was truly dreading the latter.

I don't bear a whole lot of ill will towards either team (I suppose I still hold '89 somewhat against the Giants), so I am now accepting lobbying by fans of either squad to determine my rooting interests*

*Disclaimer: Please note that as a Cubs fan, my rooting likely dooms the target squad, so you might be best served convincing me why I should root for the other guys.
   47. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 23, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4280898)
Tigers in 7, three starts by Verlander, he wins them all (including game 7 in 10 innings), everyone forgets about Jack Morris for the rest of our lives.
   48. zonk Posted: October 23, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4280909)
Tigers in 7, three starts by Verlander, he wins them all (including game 7 in 10 innings), everyone forgets about Jack Morris for the rest of our lives.


Heh... it would be great if instead of the standard "I'm going to Disneyland", he says "I'm going to Cooperstown, before they make a mistake and put Jack in!"
   49. dr. scott Posted: October 23, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4280972)
Fortunately detroit has 4 pitchers they want to use, so Verlander will not be allowed to start 3 games. OW it could be a problem. This is why Giants win in 6... maybe 7...
   50. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 23, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4280973)
Giants in 6, including at least one win over Verlander.

In other news... Series Probability Added agrees with the choice of Scutaro as LCS MVP, and does so fairly emphatically; since his worst WPA in the series was -.018, I don't think that qualifies as a surprise. Cain is the most valuable pitcher, even though Vogelsong had a better series pitching; Cain's RBI single in Game 7 gives him the nod (although Vogelsong also had positive hitting value. I might check later to see if I can find the last series in which two pitchers on the same team both made contributions with the bat - and it's actually three, because Zito gets a positive score as well.)

Most valuable Cardinal is Carpenter (Matt); least valuable Cardinal (and player) is Carpenter (Chris). Least valuable Giant is Bumgarner.

David Freese's raw numbers aren't much to write home about (unless you're doing so as a reprimand), but SPA actually gives him a mild positive score, thanks to his 2-run homer in the second inning of Game 1 and... well, his walk in the second inning of Game 7. (Seriously. The walk set up first and second with nobody out, with the Cards down by 1; that's +7%. By the next time Freese batted, St. Louis trailed by 7, and so his three later outs made very little difference.) So he'll end the season having surpassed Mantle as the all-time leader in Championship Probability Added... unless someone pulls a Freese in the Series, of course.
   51. Morph Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4281021)
The thing that strikes me as an amusing irony is that Barry Zito starting game one of the 2012 World Series is just how the Giants would have drawn it up when he signed the contract.
   52. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 06:51 PM (#4281058)
I'm sure this is not a unique sentiment, but I'm just glad that the Yankees and Cardinals both lost so I can enjoy this series without wanting one of the teams to lose. I'd slightly prefer the Tigers to win just because the Giants recently won one and the Tigers haven't won since the year I was born, but mostly I can just root for a classic series.
   53. Rafael Bellylard: A failure of the waist. Posted: October 23, 2012 at 07:12 PM (#4281072)
Giants in seven, Matt Cain named MVP for 2 victories, including a CG shutout in Game 7.
   54. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 23, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4281108)
the tigers have the type of top-line talent that could blow away the giants early but the longer the series lasts the more the giants better overall roster will matter.

that's my lousy two cents

go giants

though i would not be pained by the tigers winning. this series has no downside for me

no yankees. no cardinals. no worries
   55. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 23, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4281110)
I'm sure this is not a unique sentiment, but I'm just glad that the Yankees and Cardinals both lost so I can enjoy this series without wanting one of the teams to lose. I'd slightly prefer the Tigers to win just because the Giants recently won one and the Tigers haven't won since the year I was born, but mostly I can just root for a classic series.

My sentiments precisely. Except that I was about to turn 2 when the Tigers last won.
   56. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4281134)
Given their record in elimination games, I'm hearing the Giants are considering forfeiting the first 3 games to conserve their pitching staff.
   57. fra paolo Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4281154)
The predictor model I use has had a bad post-season this year.

It predicted Yankees over Tigers and Giants over Cardinals.

It now predicts the Tigers will be your next World Series winners.
   58. dr. scott Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4281181)
So far I have only guessed one series correctly Giants over Reds, and I guessed Orioles over Texas. After that its been downhill. I saved a lot of money not betting in Vegas, so i should be able to buy a new Bike... that was smart.
   59. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4281183)
Tigers in 7. Verlander wins three games.
   60. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4281220)
Except that I was about to turn 2 when the Tigers last won.


You were a particularly slow-moving second baseman?
   61. Tim D Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4281232)
As a native Detroiter I certainly hope the Tigers win but I will not tempt a jinx with a prediction. I am surprised to not see Vaux predicting a 4-0 Giants sweep where the Tigers get no-hit in every game.
   62. Rants Mulliniks Posted: October 24, 2012 at 07:38 AM (#4281299)
Detroit in 6.
   63. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 24, 2012 at 08:42 AM (#4281323)
A little shout-out to [60]

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