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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Who knew Colgate University even had Stonemasonry 101!
Jeter is a career .317 hitter in the regular season. Any statistic that can be argued as an indicator of clutch shows Jeter does worse than his career average. Jeter is a career .317 hitter with runners on base and he is a .308 hitter with runners in scoring position. He has a .295 batting average after the seventh inning in either a tie or one-run game and, in the postseason, Jeter is a .310 hitter (he holds the record for most postseason games played). What do all these statistics mean? Simply, in clutch situations, Jeter’s statistical performance is no different than in non-clutch situations.
If Jeter is not statistically clutch, this begs the question can any player have an innate ability to repeatedly perform above his talent level in high-pressure situations?
Dozens of studies make a strong case against clutch hitting as a skill. These studies hold that there is no statistical evidence to prove that certain players rise to the occasion in clutch situations with any consistency. For example, a 1993 study by statistician David Grabiner, found that “the correlation between past and current clutch performance is .01, with a standard deviation of .07. In other words, there isn’t a significant ability in clutch hitting; if there were, the same players would be good clutch hitters every year.”
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1. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2009 at 09:32 PM (#3379971)Not to argue that Jeter has some super-duper clutch power, but wouldn't we expect a players BA to be significantly lower than normal in tied or one-run games after the seventh inning? After all, in those circumstances, you're likely to be facing a LOOGY/ROOGY (pick one), the setup guy, and the closer, all of whom should (but aren't necessarily) be above average pitchers.
Under those conditions, the odds that you're still facing some generic innings eating scrub, or the back-of-the-bullpen long relief guy, are fairly low.
Disgraceful!
Under those conditions, the odds that you're still facing some generic innings eating scrub, or the back-of-the-bullpen long relief guy, are fairly low.
And in the postseason aren't you usually facing the best teams, and the best team's best pitchers? In most cases wouldn't you expect the postseason offensive numbers to be lower? And doesn't cold weather tend to favor the pitchers?
This doesn't mean that Jeter's any kind of a clutch God (duh), but the numbers I see above don't seem to say the opposite at all.
You've had this one for awhile, but I've always wanted to say that the evolution of your handle amuses me greatly.
If you RTFA, it's not really anti-Jeter at all. But the guy does seem like a relative newbie.
If you say that Derek Jeter is a great, deserving first ballot Hall of Fame SS who is outstanding offensively and below average in the aggregate for a SS defensively, you're not overrating him. That is because these are all demonstrable facts.
If you say those things, and also say, "and, he's one of the great clutch players of all-time", you're overrating him. That is because "Jeter as Clutch God" is not a demonstrable fact.
So, Greg, if you think this article is about how Jeter is overrated, apparently you didn't read the second paragraph. Let me reproduce it for you here:
"There is no question that Jeter is one of the best players of our generation. One could even argue that he is the greatest shortstop of all-time. He is a ten-time All-Star, three-time gold glove winner, three-time silver slugger winner and has four World Series championships. His accomplishments speak for themselves, but I am asking whether Jeter repeatedly performs above his already high talent level in pressure situations?"
So - he thinks there's an argument that Jeter has had a greater career than Honus Wagner on the merits - but he also thinks Jeter is overrated?
But there are plenty of mainstream writers/broadcasters who say even stupider things. I listened to a little of Michael Kay's radio show and he compared Andy Pettitte to Jack Morris. "When he got 6 runs, he'd give up 5. When he got 2 runs he gave up one". No No No, Nephew of Danny Aiello. Baseball Prospectus has refuted this. Pettitte and Morris are good, durable pitchers who have played for good teams. None of this "pitching to the score" stuff.
I don't think he has ever published his work but Harold Richman of Strat-O-Matic games has said he feels clutch hitting exists (although clutch pitching does not) and has incorporated in his games.
Let's all send him last weeks episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm. Maybe he'll strangle himself.
Oh yes:
"Rob and Rany: We really love Jeter, but not for $190 million"
"Royals Contract Millstone Must Go"
"Derek Jeter, greed personified"
"Unexplained surge in Kansas City births"
G.W. Bush gets born in Burundi. Does he even make it past his 15th birthday?
G.W. Bush gets born in Burundi. Does he even make it past his 15th birthday?
I'm sure George and Barbara would have moved home well before his 15th birthday.
Jeter is clutch because he has come through in the clutch previously. I think the stat approach to "clutch" is overdone. It's something you just have to do once. Sure, MSM writers like phrases like, "always comes through" but no one really believes a player will bat 1.000 in the clutch. What "being clutch" means is that, at some point, you rose above the nerves and one a battle in a crucial situation.
I think the backlash against the use of "clutch" comes from the intuitive knowledge that any "clutch" situation will result in someone being clutch. The batter either gets the job done or the pitcher does. So, every year, someone has to become clutch. It isn't, really, all that uncommon. Someone has to win the game and the matchup.
So, plenty of times, Jeter has come through in the clutch. So he's clutch. It just isn't anything that means all that much.
And......Andy goes for the hijack.
Fair enough, Lassus, since that's what the Yankees (and the entire National League) seem to have done to the Mets.
Skip breakfast today?
Until the Yankee fans understand the difference between kicking something while it is down vs. kicking someone while they are on top, they will always be confused on why they are viewed so poorly. :-)
Andy, you're needed over in this thread.
Until the Yankee fans understand the difference between kicking something while it is down vs. kicking someone while they are on top, they will always be confused on why they are viewed so poorly. :-)
This sounds like one of those routines where some four-eyed kid punches someone in the nose, and then says "You can't hit me back---I'm wearing glasses!" Not that you aren't aware of that.
Yeah. In a truly strange way. Giving extra hits/outs in 2 out/RISP but not based on their actual 2 out RISP stats.
Oh well. For all people worry about it, it doesn't affect the outcome much (and I actually like that it gives the manager one more thing to worry about)
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