Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, August 15, 2014

The Drafts That Exceeded Expectations

The Angels hooked a good one.

he leading 2006 Rays draft managed to produce three productive major leaguers: Evan Longoria (1st Round, 3rd pick, 38.5 career rWAR, 5.81 WAR/Season), Alex Cobb (4th Round, 3rd Pick, 7.1 career rWAR, 1.94 WAR/Season), and Desmond Jennings (10th Round, 3rd Pick, 11.7 rWAR, 3.02 WAR/Season). However, the 2009 Angels drafted Mike Trout, Tyler Skaggs, and Garrett Richards, so they may be on the way to passing the 2006 Rays. In addition, the Angels’s total includes Patrick Corban and Randal Grichuk, whom they traded away. However, since the point of this exercise is identifying the teams who are getting the best value, even if it gets traded away, this is a reasonable inclusion.

On the opposite end, the 1994 Phillies drafted four players who reached the majors, all of whom had negative WAR. The 1997 White Sox failed to sign 2nd Round pick Jeff Weaver (who would go on to have 15.5 career rWAR), had six total 1st Round and Supplement 1st Round Picks, and still wound out on -1.77 WAR/Season….

Accounting for this, we can calculate the WAR/Season above the expectation that a team got in their draft, which can be looked at as a measure of value. Not surprisingly this list has several teams picking near the bottom of the round who find a star (a la Mike Trout), or teams who find a star in the later rounds (Such as Paul Goldschmidt)...

Not surprisingly, the 2009 Angels draft class comes out on top. In fact, in future years this class may look even more impressive if Skaggs, Richards, Grichuk, and Corbin continue to develop.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 15, 2014 at 02:26 PM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, draft, mike trout, phillies, rays

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. bookbook Posted: August 16, 2014 at 01:35 AM (#4772276)
Sure. If you draft a guy who's worth 9 WAR/season, the draft class is going to look pretty remarkable. (Though Skaggs, and Richards are perfectly legitimate others to have in a draft)
   2. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 16, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4772375)
Yea plus the Angels gave away Skaggs in the Haren deal. Not sure where he ended up, last I heard he was stuck in Diamondbacks AAA club last years
   3. McCoy Posted: August 16, 2014 at 12:07 PM (#4772390)
The 1996 Cubs are listed as one of the worst because of the 3 players in the first 10 rounds of their draft that got MLB playing time they all had negative WAR but they also drafted Kyle Lohse in the 29th round so it really wasn't one of their worst drafts on paper. The 2005 draft is much more horrible in that not a single guy besides Donnie Veal that they drafted and signed played a game of major league baseball and Donnie was lost in the Rule 5 draft so they didn't even get anything for him. Getting no players up to the majors is probably even worse than having negative WAR in that I don't think a single player from that draft for the Cubs was ever valued highly nor were they ever traded for any major league player or valuable prospect. At least in the 1996 draft the Cubs were able to trade some of the players for something.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Chicago Joe
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: 2016 NFL Playoffs Thread
(2147 - 11:17pm, Feb 07)
Last: AuntBea

NewsblogOTP - 2016 February 1: Donald Trump spends $450,000 on red baseball caps in just three months
(2583 - 11:15pm, Feb 07)
Last: Morty Causa

NewsblogPadres say they’re not rebuilding, plan to compete in 2016 | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com
(8 - 11:11pm, Feb 07)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogStick to Sports? NEVER! The Intersectionalist Manifesto – HardballTalk
(10 - 11:10pm, Feb 07)
Last: Bruce Markusen

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread - February 2016
(66 - 10:58pm, Feb 07)
Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

NewsblogJonny Gomes: Sayonara, For Now: Why I’m Playing In Japan
(20 - 10:54pm, Feb 07)
Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

NewsblogBip Roberts Was The First Bip
(10 - 9:59pm, Feb 07)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - February 2016
(217 - 9:56pm, Feb 07)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogThe Cespedes gamble: The biggest MLB position-change risks | New York Post
(7 - 9:41pm, Feb 07)
Last: Dan

NewsblogSuddenly Frugal Yankees Playing Long Game With Eye On Bryce Harper
(70 - 5:17pm, Feb 07)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogChecking the facts ... yup, MLB still has greater parity than the NFL
(42 - 3:46pm, Feb 07)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogSunday Notes: Seratelli’s Sayonara, Kaminsky’s Curve, Cards, ARod Managing, more | FanGraphs Baseball
(4 - 3:34pm, Feb 07)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogScott Boras, other baseball minds propose anti-tanking measures - Buster Olney Blog- ($Insider$)
(71 - 1:11pm, Feb 07)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogWANTED: New home for American League baseball team | Tampa Bay Times
(12 - 12:46pm, Feb 07)
Last: cercopithecus aethiops

NewsblogJapan Times: Retired slugger Kiyohara refuses to divulge drug source, admits injecting, smoking stimulant
(7 - 12:24pm, Feb 07)
Last: vortex of dissipation

Page rendered in 0.2512 seconds
47 querie(s) executed