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Friday, August 15, 2014

The Drafts That Exceeded Expectations

The Angels hooked a good one.

he leading 2006 Rays draft managed to produce three productive major leaguers: Evan Longoria (1st Round, 3rd pick, 38.5 career rWAR, 5.81 WAR/Season), Alex Cobb (4th Round, 3rd Pick, 7.1 career rWAR, 1.94 WAR/Season), and Desmond Jennings (10th Round, 3rd Pick, 11.7 rWAR, 3.02 WAR/Season). However, the 2009 Angels drafted Mike Trout, Tyler Skaggs, and Garrett Richards, so they may be on the way to passing the 2006 Rays. In addition, the Angels’s total includes Patrick Corban and Randal Grichuk, whom they traded away. However, since the point of this exercise is identifying the teams who are getting the best value, even if it gets traded away, this is a reasonable inclusion.

On the opposite end, the 1994 Phillies drafted four players who reached the majors, all of whom had negative WAR. The 1997 White Sox failed to sign 2nd Round pick Jeff Weaver (who would go on to have 15.5 career rWAR), had six total 1st Round and Supplement 1st Round Picks, and still wound out on -1.77 WAR/Season….

Accounting for this, we can calculate the WAR/Season above the expectation that a team got in their draft, which can be looked at as a measure of value. Not surprisingly this list has several teams picking near the bottom of the round who find a star (a la Mike Trout), or teams who find a star in the later rounds (Such as Paul Goldschmidt)...

Not surprisingly, the 2009 Angels draft class comes out on top. In fact, in future years this class may look even more impressive if Skaggs, Richards, Grichuk, and Corbin continue to develop.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 15, 2014 at 02:26 PM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, draft, mike trout, phillies, rays

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   1. bookbook Posted: August 16, 2014 at 01:35 AM (#4772276)
Sure. If you draft a guy who's worth 9 WAR/season, the draft class is going to look pretty remarkable. (Though Skaggs, and Richards are perfectly legitimate others to have in a draft)
   2. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 16, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4772375)
Yea plus the Angels gave away Skaggs in the Haren deal. Not sure where he ended up, last I heard he was stuck in Diamondbacks AAA club last years
   3. McCoy Posted: August 16, 2014 at 12:07 PM (#4772390)
The 1996 Cubs are listed as one of the worst because of the 3 players in the first 10 rounds of their draft that got MLB playing time they all had negative WAR but they also drafted Kyle Lohse in the 29th round so it really wasn't one of their worst drafts on paper. The 2005 draft is much more horrible in that not a single guy besides Donnie Veal that they drafted and signed played a game of major league baseball and Donnie was lost in the Rule 5 draft so they didn't even get anything for him. Getting no players up to the majors is probably even worse than having negative WAR in that I don't think a single player from that draft for the Cubs was ever valued highly nor were they ever traded for any major league player or valuable prospect. At least in the 1996 draft the Cubs were able to trade some of the players for something.

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