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Friday, June 08, 2012

The Economist: The early bird catches the worm (on the age of high school draftees)

MLB’s failure to learn the lessons of a study on the age of high school draftees shows that its labor market is not as efficient as is often claimed.

It is stunning that it has taken so long for awareness of the importance of high school players’ exact ages to become widespread. Unlike most advanced research these days, which requires access to proprietary data sets and sophisticated computer-programming skills, Mr Jazayerli’s study required little more than a web browser and a spreadsheet…

“There doesn’t appear to be any industry-wide impact from my study,” Mr Jazayerli concludes. It seems that some low-hanging fruit remains available to be plucked by savvy general managers, at least for one more year.

David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: June 08, 2012 at 02:38 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: draft

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   1. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: June 08, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4151998)
So, anybody seen anything on the ages of the first round high schoolers from this year?




Edited for clarity
   2. Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim Posted: June 08, 2012 at 07:16 PM (#4152013)
Look at me, I'm reading The Economist! Did you know Indonesia is at a crossroads?
   3. Dale H. Posted: June 08, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4152192)
I'm baffled by the original study linked in the article.

By setting a discount rate in determining what your "expected value for the drafting team" should be, aren't you biasing the data by giving more value for early development of players? If you want to worry about team control, then just chop off the data at 9 years or so. But with the discount you're saying that players who perform well in their rookie season are more important than the value that your team gets from a guy in his contract year.

Also, it seems rather intuitive that younger players would outperform older ones because the older ones are drafted higher (because of their evident body of work already compiled) and there's less room for drastic improvement for players that are picked at such a higher point.
   4. tshipman Posted: June 08, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4152197)
Look at me, I'm reading The Economist! Did you know Indonesia is at a crossroads?


I used to make fun of the Economist as well, but when I needed to know more about the Maldivian political situation in February, they were invaluable.
   5. bobm Posted: June 08, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4152199)
Mr Jazayerli


Why not Dr? Isn't he an MD?
   6. zachtoma Posted: June 09, 2012 at 03:01 AM (#4152230)
I used to make fun of the Economist as well, but when I needed to know more about the Maldivian political situation in February, they were invaluable.


Wow! Hey everybody, the United States ambassador to the Maldives is a primate! That's pretty cool.*

*I'm assuming nobody besides the ambassador to the Maldives has ever said "I needed to know more about the Maldivian political situation".
   7. Bourbon Samurai is disturbed by bagel developments Posted: June 09, 2012 at 05:20 AM (#4152236)
Wow! Hey everybody, the United States ambassador to the Maldives is a primate!


C'mon this is Primer.

He's clearly the Canadian ambassador to the Maldives.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: June 09, 2012 at 07:00 AM (#4152238)
Or he's from MLBtv and needs to figure out if the Maldives are Yankees or Red Sox territory.
   9. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: June 09, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4152285)
Good catch, bobm! I'll fix that now.
   10. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4152310)
Wow! Hey everybody, the United States ambassador to the Maldives is a primate! That's pretty cool.*


Actually, as the Economist taught me, the US does not have an embassy on the Maldives. The US staffs a combined mission to the Maldives and Sri Lanka located in Ceylon.


My company had two consultants in Male for two nights (before moving out to the resort atolls), and my boss was concerned about some of the Islamist rhetoric coming out, as both consultants were women.
   11. bobm Posted: June 09, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4152412)
[10] My company had two consultants in Male for two nights... both consultants were women.

Exactly what kind of consulting services does your firm provide?!?

(J/k - I know from The Economist that Male is the capital.)
   12. base ball chick Posted: June 09, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4152467)
what makes the - younger highschooler = better - thingy interesting is that, at least here in texas, boys start school as late as possible. hopefully starting kindergarten at 6, so that they will be large for grade. you see lots of boys who are even 2 years too old for their grade because they are held back
1 - if they are shorter than average
2 - if they are larger than average and parents are hoping it will give them an advantage in sports

no i am not kidding

you go to any class, any grade, any socio-economic group and you will see that the vast majority of kids too old for their grade are boys.

you'd think that this would prove that grrls really ARE smarter than boys, but the unfortunate fact is that the few boys who are smarter than grrls have managed to outwit even the few grrls who are smarter than they are
   13. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: June 09, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4152468)
Interesting article. I just hope GMs don't skim it (or only skim Rany's study) and just decide to start drafting lousy 17 year olds.
   14. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 09, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4152485)
hey, lousy 17 year olds could be the new market inefficiency
   15. Monty Posted: June 09, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4152510)
Wow! Hey everybody, the United States ambassador to the Maldives is a primate! That's pretty cool.


Well, I know a guy who's in The Maldives, but that's just the name of his band.
   16. base ball chick Posted: June 09, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4152517)
good luck finding a male athlete who graduates high school at age 17 in this country

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