Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The Fly Ball Revolution Is Hurting As Many Batters As It’s Helped

So there is definitely a fly-ball revolution underway in baseball. But that revolution is not without its discontents. Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto recently disparaged the trend towards fly-ball hitting in an interview with The Cincinnati Enquirer. “I see it with a lot of guys. Everyone tells the good stories, but there’s a lot of s—ty stories of guys who are wasting their time trying things,” Votto said, as quoted in the Enquirer.

Votto is right; being a more productive hitter really isn’t as simple as “elevate to celebrate.” Over the last three years, just as many hitters have suffered by increasing their fly-ball rate as have benefited. Here’s a chart showing each hitter’s change in fly-ball rate from the previous year, in comparison with his change in weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).

Among players who increased their fly-ball rate, it was almost exactly a toss-up as to whether their wOBA would get better or worse.1 Similarly, players who decreased their fly-ball rate had about a 50/50 split of improving and worsening wOBAs. Overall, the correlation between a batter’s changing fly ball rate and his subsequent change in production is nonexistent. That same lack of correlation holds if you use the more advanced metrics (such as launch angle) tracked by MLB’s StatCast system.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:04 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: fivethirtyeight, flyball revolution

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Drexl Spivey Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:22 AM (#5457249)
.
   2. Lassus Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:41 AM (#5457255)
;
   3. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:54 AM (#5457261)
ಠ_ಠ
   4. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: May 17, 2017 at 09:15 AM (#5457274)
Those Canadians, with their salty stories.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 25 September 2017: CC Sabathia won’t visit the White House if the Yankees win the World Series
(590 - 12:32pm, Sep 26)
Last: Joe Bivens Will Take a Steaming Dump

NewsblogOT-NBA off season thread
(2512 - 12:30pm, Sep 26)
Last: There are a lot of good people in alt-Shooty

NewsblogSilverman: Yankees-Red Sox Is Exactly What MLB Postseason Needs
(32 - 12:30pm, Sep 26)
Last: Mark Armour

NewsblogHow rapidly shrinking Detroit Tigers payroll could speed rebuild | MLive.com
(9 - 12:29pm, Sep 26)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogYankees Aaron Judge sets MLB rookie HR record | MLB.com
(6 - 12:20pm, Sep 26)
Last: Scott Ross

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-26-2017
(7 - 12:12pm, Sep 26)
Last: Batman

NewsblogOlney: Derek Jeter must make impossible decision about Giancarlo Stanton's future - Buster Olney Blog- ESPN
(71 - 11:53am, Sep 26)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

Newsblog24 years ago, Nolan Ryan pitched in his final game - Houston Chronicle
(34 - 11:46am, Sep 26)
Last: donlock

NewsblogOT - August/September 2017 College Football thread
(260 - 11:43am, Sep 26)
Last: 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em

Gonfalon Cubs15 To Go
(107 - 11:35am, Sep 26)
Last: Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington

NewsblogFrancona ... points to Tomlin in rotation for ALDS
(17 - 11:29am, Sep 26)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogThe case for Jose Altuve as the American League MVP, and a look at the rest of the contenders
(85 - 10:55am, Sep 26)
Last: dlf

Sox TherapyRoster Thoughts
(14 - 10:46am, Sep 26)
Last: Morton's Fork

NewsblogThe Braves in 2018: Snitker could return, but much will change | Mark Bradley blog
(5 - 9:36am, Sep 26)
Last: Rickey! the first of his name

NewsblogTaking Back the Ballparks - Tampa Bay Rays
(30 - 9:36am, Sep 26)
Last: Fernigal McGunnigle

Page rendered in 0.1894 seconds
47 querie(s) executed