Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The Fly Ball Revolution Is Hurting As Many Batters As It’s Helped

So there is definitely a fly-ball revolution underway in baseball. But that revolution is not without its discontents. Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto recently disparaged the trend towards fly-ball hitting in an interview with The Cincinnati Enquirer. “I see it with a lot of guys. Everyone tells the good stories, but there’s a lot of s—ty stories of guys who are wasting their time trying things,” Votto said, as quoted in the Enquirer.

Votto is right; being a more productive hitter really isn’t as simple as “elevate to celebrate.” Over the last three years, just as many hitters have suffered by increasing their fly-ball rate as have benefited. Here’s a chart showing each hitter’s change in fly-ball rate from the previous year, in comparison with his change in weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).

Among players who increased their fly-ball rate, it was almost exactly a toss-up as to whether their wOBA would get better or worse.1 Similarly, players who decreased their fly-ball rate had about a 50/50 split of improving and worsening wOBAs. Overall, the correlation between a batter’s changing fly ball rate and his subsequent change in production is nonexistent. That same lack of correlation holds if you use the more advanced metrics (such as launch angle) tracked by MLB’s StatCast system.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:04 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: fivethirtyeight, flyball revolution

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Drexl Spivey Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:22 AM (#5457249)
.
   2. Lassus Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:41 AM (#5457255)
;
   3. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:54 AM (#5457261)
ಠ_ಠ
   4. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: May 17, 2017 at 09:15 AM (#5457274)
Those Canadians, with their salty stories.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Tuque
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 20 November 2017: Sheriff’s official suspended 10 days over Cubs World Series sneak-in
(113 - 12:53am, Nov 21)
Last: Omineca Greg

NewsblogdWAR to end all WARs – Joe Blogs – Medium
(31 - 12:36am, Nov 21)
Last: Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(1464 - 12:32am, Nov 21)
Last: SteveF

NewsblogTeams set 40-man rosters ahead of Rule 5 Draft
(4 - 12:08am, Nov 21)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogGabe Kapler's only season as a manager gave hints for how he will lead Phillies
(28 - 11:22pm, Nov 20)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogJim Palmer on Mark Belanger and Omar Vizquel: The Hardball Times
(103 - 10:50pm, Nov 20)
Last: SoSH U at work

Gonfalon CubsLooking to next year
(199 - 10:30pm, Nov 20)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogMore on WAR – Joe Blogs – Medium
(143 - 10:17pm, Nov 20)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT: Winter Soccer Thread
(204 - 9:51pm, Nov 20)
Last: Textbook Editor

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-20-2017
(2 - 9:01pm, Nov 20)
Last: AndrewJ

NewsblogTaking Back the Ballparks - Philadelphia Phillies
(46 - 7:57pm, Nov 20)
Last: eddieot

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(2110 - 7:08pm, Nov 20)
Last: aberg

NewsblogJudge and Altuve | Articles | Bill James Online
(58 - 7:00pm, Nov 20)
Last: Zach

NewsblogQuestions And Challenges Loom Over Derek Jeter
(29 - 6:06pm, Nov 20)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogOTP 13 November 2017: Politics, race now touching every sport
(2202 - 5:30pm, Nov 20)
Last: Greg K

Page rendered in 0.2486 seconds
47 querie(s) executed