Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The Fly Ball Revolution Is Hurting As Many Batters As It’s Helped

So there is definitely a fly-ball revolution underway in baseball. But that revolution is not without its discontents. Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto recently disparaged the trend towards fly-ball hitting in an interview with The Cincinnati Enquirer. “I see it with a lot of guys. Everyone tells the good stories, but there’s a lot of s—ty stories of guys who are wasting their time trying things,” Votto said, as quoted in the Enquirer.

Votto is right; being a more productive hitter really isn’t as simple as “elevate to celebrate.” Over the last three years, just as many hitters have suffered by increasing their fly-ball rate as have benefited. Here’s a chart showing each hitter’s change in fly-ball rate from the previous year, in comparison with his change in weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).

Among players who increased their fly-ball rate, it was almost exactly a toss-up as to whether their wOBA would get better or worse.1 Similarly, players who decreased their fly-ball rate had about a 50/50 split of improving and worsening wOBAs. Overall, the correlation between a batter’s changing fly ball rate and his subsequent change in production is nonexistent. That same lack of correlation holds if you use the more advanced metrics (such as launch angle) tracked by MLB’s StatCast system.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:04 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: fivethirtyeight, flyball revolution

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Drexl Spivey Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:22 AM (#5457249)
.
   2. Lassus Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:41 AM (#5457255)
;
   3. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 17, 2017 at 08:54 AM (#5457261)
ಠ_ಠ
   4. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: May 17, 2017 at 09:15 AM (#5457274)
Those Canadians, with their salty stories.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
HowardMegdal
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogThe Absurd History of “The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim”
(69 - 12:52pm, Jul 22)
Last: Sweatpants

Gonfalon CubsThe Biggest Fixes
(79 - 12:52pm, Jul 22)
Last: Voodoo

NewsblogIt's unacceptable — Cardinals have lost their Way under Matheny
(18 - 12:36pm, Jul 22)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOTP 17 July 2017: Love is baseball, family. Keep the politics out
(1407 - 12:32pm, Jul 22)
Last: Traderdave

NewsblogBaseball’s Best Teams Are Too Damn Good
(35 - 12:25pm, Jul 22)
Last: simpleton & childlike gef the talking mongoose

NewsblogNYP: Yoenis Cespedes: I want to finish my career with A’s
(7 - 12:19pm, Jul 22)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogTaking Back the Ballparks - San Francisco Giants
(180 - 12:09pm, Jul 22)
Last: Omineca Greg

NewsblogOT-NBA off season thread
(1325 - 11:50am, Jul 22)
Last: Quaker

NewsblogThe Last Cowboy: Joe West Is On A Quest To Preserve The Sanctity Of Umpiring
(40 - 11:47am, Jul 22)
Last: Tom T

NewsblogYoenis Cespedes wants to finish career in Oakland - San Francisco Chronicle
(2 - 11:29am, Jul 22)
Last: Rennie's Tenet

NewsblogCashman: Yankees will ‘send Frazier out’ when Hicks returns | New York Post
(18 - 10:16am, Jul 22)
Last: Captain Supporter

NewsblogHe played where? Majors' best 'irony jerseys'
(44 - 9:13am, Jul 22)
Last: Rennie's Tenet

NewsblogTap-In Question: Should the Orioles be sellers no matter how they fare against the Astros? - BaltimoreBaseball.com
(3 - 8:47am, Jul 22)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogAmerica Has Spoken: The Yankees Are The Worst
(48 - 2:40am, Jul 22)
Last: QLE

NewsblogDon't look OMNICHATTER in the eye, for July 21, 2017
(90 - 2:14am, Jul 22)
Last: Bote Man

Page rendered in 0.1227 seconds
47 querie(s) executed