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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
A Keltner List for Jimmy Rollins? dajafi gives it a try…
Perhaps a more encouraging sign for Rollins’ Hall hopes is that for three years running now, Baseball Reference has had Ryne Sandberg as his most comparable player by age. (Jeter is 9th on this list.) In counting stats, Rollins bests Sandberg pretty much across the board, though the friendlier offensive environment of the early 21st century probably cancels this out. Indeed, Rollins’ career OPS+ of 98 isn’t close to Sandberg’s mark of 108 through this point at his career (much less Jeter’s 121); a couple legitimately lousy seasons toward the start of Jimmy’s career (85 OPS+ in 2002, 90 in 2003) continue to drag down his averages. In addition to Sandberg, the ten most comparable includes another Hall of Famer in Travis Jackson, a sure immortal-to-be in Jeter, and solid Hall candidates Roberto Alomar (not yet eligible) and Alan Trammell—Rollins’ second-best comp through age 28—who might have to wait for the Veterans Committee despite Bill James’ evaluation of him as the ninth-best shortstop of all time.
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1. CraigK Posted: December 27, 2007 at 12:28 AM (#2653986)This was amusing:
A poke at the Phils, I'm guessing.
As for
The "probably wins Rollins admission..." is awfully pessimistic. If he winds up with those stats it's hard to imagine anything other than a first ballot election.
It's odd to have someone on my favorite team be one of the most overrated players in the game, especially when the team was hopeless and its fans (and their opinions) were subjected to universal scorn less than a decade ago.
Who's up for comparing Omar Vizquel to Luis Aparicio?
That said, it's not hard to imagine Rollins ending his age 35 season (7 more years) with around 2600 hits, 500 doubles, 135 triples, 250 HR, 1500 runs scored, 400 SB and a batting line in the neighborhood of 280/335/460, while still managing to play SS. If he gets into that ballpark, he'll have better raw numbers pretty nearly across the board than Trammell's career. While I think Trammell's an edge case for the HOF, even if Jimmy's racked up only Trammel's 2365 hits/412 doubles/185 HRs by that age 35 season, I can't see him not having a reasonably legit shot to hang around and get 3000 hits, which I expect would make him a lock for the HOF.
Yeah, but if, before the 2007 season, you'd seen the headline, "Jimmy Rollins: MVP?", wouldn't you have laughed at that too?
Actually, it's still pretty funny. Heh.
Yes. Couple that with the fact that his comps are skewed by a high offensive environment, and to me the likely scenario is Jimmy Rollins, HoFer? No.
And even best case:
Given the way the BBWAA is treating modern players, e.g. Trammell, even with those stats, it's a crap shoot these days. Somebody would say, well, he never felt like a HoFer.
Not with that MVP. He's no Zoilo..
Given the way the BBWAA is treating modern players, e.g. Trammell, even with those stats, it's a crap shoot these days. Somebody would say, well, he never felt like a HoFer.
Yep. Who the hell knows what the BBWAA is thinking anymore. There are no standards, really. Maybe we should just got to a Japanese system where if you hit a certain statistical benchmark, you get in. Or we could do what they do in Cuba and just enshrine everybody. Either way would make as much sense as what we do now. Or we could even adopt the basketball method and elect obscure international and women's coaches no one's ever heard of and ignore professional ball players altogether.
Well, Trammell doesn't have any of the cachet benchmarks. I think 3000 hits is likely to remain an automatic entrance, and Rollins has a lot going for him in getting a shot at 3000 hits (well as much as anyone who needs another 1700 hits can).
I'm not sure offensive context is an issue for Rollins at this point, given that most writers seem to think only in terms of HR, and I don't think Rollins' HR numbers are likely to be a big factor in his HOF argument. If he continues the transformation to a slugger as he ages and comes up short on hits but with more total power than he has now, it could be an issue, but the question might well transform over the next 10-20 years depending on how offense changes going forward, and it seems possible that Rollins' numbers will be viewed favorably versus the "steroid era" given that his power surge started near the (apparent) end at a natural point in his career. Plus, he's already got the scrappy SS rep down.
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