(I learned this while stocking up on beer and chips.)

It's a good thing that essentials like beer are still available.

There's no magic about FEMA. They're a great contribution to deficit financing and quite frankly they don't have a penny in the bank.

My son will be studying Applied Meteorology here in a couple years.

If by "here" you mean BTF, I suggest he not bother.

*As Climate Warms, Some Scientists See Irene as a Harbinger*

"The scale of Hurricane Irene, which could cause more extensive damage along the Eastern Seaboard than any storm in decades, is reviving an old question: are hurricanes getting worse because of human-induced climate change?"

Forecasts show Irene hitting central Long Island, N.Y., sometime Sunday (Aug. 28), leaving New York City with the "clean side" of the hurricane and without the major storm surge. The city will mostly see "blustery rains and strong winds," said Eugene McCaul, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast around 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain for New York City from Irene.

The strongest winds and the highest storm surge are on a hurricane's right side — the "dirty side" — as viewed from above. That's because winds in a hurricane rotate counterclockwise, so the strength of the storm on the "dirty side" is the hurricane's wind speed plus its forward velocity. The strength on the "clean side", or the left side, is the wind speed minus the velocity.

The worst-case scenario for New York City would be a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength) that remains out to sea and then whose eye plunges ashore just west of the Hudson Bay, bringing the full fury of wind, surge and punishing waves of the storm's dirty side into Manhattan and the surrounding metro area. If that were to happen, a storm surge of up to 30 feet (9 meters) would flood low-lying areas, according to the New York City Office of Emergency Management.

Irene, however, has weakened to a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph (140 kph) and has taken a different track, with its eye so far looking to hit slightly to the east of the city.

"We could still be unlucky here in the city and get a worse track, but it's just hard to happen," said Adam Sobel, an atmospheric scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

The city, especially the borough of Manhattan, sits in a crook, somewhat shielded by Long Island and areas to the south.

"The good thing is that it's kind of hard for a hurricane to get in at that angle," Sobel told OurAmazingPlanet.

However, every storm is covered the same way initially, so as a lay-person there's no way to distinguish between Katrina and the 20 other hurricanes that do next to no damage.

The west side gets less wind but the lions share of the rain (5-12"), the east side gets much less rain (2-4") but the gusty wind and tornadoes.

You mentioned West Lafayette. That's Purdue, right?

I thought New Yorkers were tough and resilient and ####. Sounds to me that you all are being a bunch of pussies.

The problem is that it's the day before anything is expected to maybe happen.

Current deficit is projected >$1.4T. So if you zeroed out FEMA it would be $1.39T

But instead, every single channel in NYC is local news spending all afternoon telling everyone inside, stranded because of an oncoming hurricane, that there's an oncoming hurricane.

But instead, every single channel in NYC is local news spending all afternoon telling everyone inside, stranded because of an oncoming hurricane, that there's an oncoming hurricane.

Where are the levees for New York City?

That ... or taking advantage of the opportunity to "showcase" their newsreading "talent" to a captive audience.

Considering that it basically hit America at category 1 and will be downgraded to a tropical storm well before it reaches NY I think the hype was on the level of "over".

I'm still in my apartment, one block farther inland than official areas for evacuation, about half-a-story above ground and ~15 feet above sea level. We'll see what happens.

This wasn't known ahead of time, though. Around the timeframe of early Friday, it was solidly in category 2 and was legitimately projected to hit NYC at that strength.

Ray's not a global warming denier so much as an all-purpose denier. Whether it's a baseball player, a movie, a supposedly beautiful woman, a type of food, a scientific theory, anything. Whatever it is, you can count on him to say either that he doesn't understand why people care about it, or that it doesn't make sense to talk about it because it's functionally indistinguishable from hundreds of other things, or that maybe it might be important but it's unacceptable that someone out there has the wrong reason for thinking it's important, or that there's no evidence it exists at all. The role of all-purpose skeptic and killjoy about everything can be valuable on a societal level.

What I don't get is that as long as you're in a multi-story building, you've got high ground right there. There is zero chance of a tidal surge that would make the 4th floor of a building unsafe.

Evacuating high-rises makes no sense to me.

High-rise buildings are also vulnerable to hurricane-force winds, particularly at the higher levels since wind speed tends to increase with height. Recent research suggests you should stay below the tenth floor, but still above any floors at risk for flooding. It is not uncommon for high-rise buildings to suffer a great deal of damage due to windows being blown out. Consequently, the areas around these buildings can be very dangerous.

There's still some beer but a crappy selection.

Sounds like a plan. Good luck.

The city did the right thing evacuating. Hype or no hype, these things are unpredictable. People tend to go into denial, and most of the time that works. Sometimes it doesn't.

I am 90% concerned about the subway being terrible when I have to work on Monday

You realize the center of the hurricane is still about 400 miles away, right?

If Ray is swept away by a bizzare flash flood during Irene, I expect everyone to pitch in to write an epic story about how he was talking about how this flash flood was nothing to be alarmed about as he was swept under for the last time.

Timothy Treadwell (April 29, 1957 – October 5, 2003) was an American bear enthusiast, environmentalist, amateur naturalist, eco-warrior and documentary film maker. He lived among the coastal grizzly bears of Katmai National Park in Alaska, USA, for approximately 13 summers. At the end of his 13th summer in the park in 2003, he and his girlfriend Amie Huguenard were killed and eaten by a grizzly bear.

If Ray is swept away by a bizzare flash flood during Irene, I expect everyone to pitch in to write an epic story about how he was talking about how this flash flood was nothing to be alarmed about as he was swept under for the last time.

It's actually in Taunton, isn't it? It's next door to where I work.

I've never seen so many disappointed reporters.