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To give this a baseball theme the Boston Red Sox played a split admission doubleheader against Oakland the day Irene arrived. It took awhile but both games were played and the Sox won both. This was on August 27, 2011. That was the last time the Sox won two consecutive games until April 13-14, 2012 as they performed their spectacular collapse.
RDP wrote about 50 posts a day for a week talking about how ridiculous it was for anyone to evacuate NYC, because no matter how likely it seemed based on all available meteorological data, it was ridiculous to think that something that hadn't happened recently could happen. Then another 50 posts a day for the following week crowing about how smart people were who didn't leave NYC, because instead of the unprecedented instance of a hurricane hitting NYC, there was the equally unprecedented instance of a hurricane hitting Freehold, New Jersey. What kind of idiot would have failed to realize that the storm was going to move slightly to the left in its last couple hours before landfall? Yet another triumph for the principles of ignoring all evidence that doesn't come in a sufficiently impressive sample size.
Tell that to the people who's houses got washed away.
Isn't this getting a little overwrought? Yes, several dozen people dying with people losing their homes and Hurricane Irene generally being overhyped are not mutually exclusive. Most of those deaths weren't even preventable by evacuation, generally trees falling over or people touching fallen wires far inland.
I have a basement shelf full of dry goods, batteries, lanterns, etc.
In my neighborhood of Manhattan Irene was pretty much a non-event. We stayed in on Saturday night, woke up on Sunday morning and there were a few trees down and broken windows, but nothing worse than that. I went running along the Hudson River both mornings.
yeah, that's not happening. unless there's a gamechanger in climate sciences, we're ######. even if we, as a country, acknowledged the scale of the problem and committed to immediately cutting carbon emissions to 0, the rapid increase in carbon emissions in the rest of the world -- specifically brazil, russia, india, and china -- means that such an action would be less than a drop in a bucket.
people like to talk about how we're nearing a tipping point, but personally, i think we passed it ~20 years ago. if you've ever cooked a piece of meat, you know that it doesn't stop cooking when you take it out of the over. there's a carryover effect, where it continues cooking even after it's removed from the heat. basically, if you take a piece of meat out when it's rare, the carryover means that it'll be medium-rare when it gets to the table. using that as a guide, i think our environment right now is medium/medium-well, and even if we took it off the heat (ended carbon emissions), the carryover effect would continue to drive an increase in global temperatures.
so essentially, we are past the point where prevention is an option, and right at the point where remediation is a necessity.
If you live in an apartment situation or if there's a water tower in your town, you're probably safe. I'm in neither of those situations, and I'm oddly safe.
and guns. ammunition. do my own shotgun shells
fruit cellar. canned goods from here to there.
assorted supplies including meds. lost power too many times not to be ready
nned to have more faith in humanity. folks will surprise you
medicinal of course
medicinal of course
One can never be too careful.
I made an ill-fated attempt to drive through Vermont about a month after Irene. That was inconvenient, though clearly my fault for not actually checking to see if the roads I wanted to use were back in service.
It was a bit of a surreal experience for me. My power went out about midnight so I went to bed. Next morning, no trees down by me (mostly young ones near me so not surprising). Phone still worked (not surprising). I called the power company, got through pretty quickly (surprising), they said my power would be back on in the afternoon (somewhat surprising but I lived near the fire/police and water stations. I called my office at the university, my answering machine (those were the days!) picked up which meant power was on at the university. I assumed everything was pretty much fine and decided I might as well go into the uni until my power was back on.
That's when I encountered all the trees and power lines down. Still made it into campus, ###### around on the web, found out they were asking people to not go out on the streets (a bit late, sorry!), went home to a house with power. Poor ol' me I had to live without cable for two days!!
On the wonderfulness of humanity I learned one thing: Apparently, when approaching an intersection without working traffic lights, the rules of the road say you should proceed as if yours is green. Or at least that's how almost everybody acted.
Beyond that, yes, people are generally helpful but you can get some frayed nerves at the grocery stores when they reopen.
I'm reasonably sure that you treat it like a blinking yellow; if you're on the main thoroughfare, go on through. But pay attention to it.
That said, I don't know why they don't just do a modification of traffic light design so that if they lose power, they run off an internal battery and blink yellow for awhile.
When we lost power last year, my wife and I listened to a lot of right-wing talk radio because that's all there was to do with our days. Someone proposed the most sensible law I can think of, compelling gas stations above a certain size to own and maintain a generator. They were immediately, violently smacked down by the free-market idiots.
I drive for a living, and have thought it was just a Florida thing. When I lived in California, people seemed to obey the law regarding intersections with traffic lights out. In Florida, it's a flippin' free-for-all.
Conversely, in California traffic on highways only slows to a crawl because of traffic congestion or accidents. In Florida, a 65MPH zone suddenly grinds down to 20 if someone on the side of the road is changing a tire. And that's all lanes, not just the one next to the shoulder.
our last one was ike and that was bad enough - completely wiped out the astros, although i guess you could say they died a lingering and painful death
houston evacuated for hurricane rita and that was a mess beyond belief
didn't hardly nobody evacuate for ike because of all the hysteria over rita not paying off, so of course it was a disaster and fortuately, the hurricane didn't go up the wrong side of the ships channel. all we have to do is have a hurricane go up the east side - or is it the west side of the ship channel and the coty of houston will be worse off than nawlins in katrina
we ALWAYS keep supplies because youneverknow. especially clean water. and yeah, fill the tubs full of water before the storm about to hit because you gonna need it
fortuantely i got NO idea what to do for a hurricane with snow and i hope i don't nevah find out. they sayin that wall street gonna be under water. wonder if all those subways can get flooded and if they do how do they clean em out?
Conversely, in California traffic on highways only slows to a crawl because of traffic congestion or accidents. In Florida, a 65MPH zone suddenly grinds down to 20 if someone on the side of the road is changing a tire. And that's all lanes, not just the one next to the shoulder.
Thus proving the profound superiority in intelligence of the average Californian over the average Floridian.
As though any was needed.
;-p
Here in the St. Petersburg area we've been getting whipped with pretty steady 25+ winds all day.
A couple months ago I came to an intersection around here where the lights were completely out and it was two major streets. I was shocked at how rationally everybody handled it; everyone on one of the streets was going through and then when there was a break in the traffic everyone on the other street started going forward slowly, establishing the new flow of traffic, and all the drivers on the first street stopped and allowed us to go through (cars in the turn lanes edged forward and turned when they had a chance). Then as I looked behind me I saw that once all the cars on my street had gone through the pattern repeated itself. It was bizarrely well-handled.
I've wondered if you could put a small solar panel on top of them that could power them during the day and maybe store some too. I have seen what appear to be such setups for some roadside signs on highways.
It's lost a few MPH and is now technically a tropical storm!
---resident BBTFer with earth science background.
I slept on campus - power went out at home, figured I could get some lab work done. I ended up sleeping on campus for 8 days.
Are they going to rename the storm Barry Zito?
This is a worrying development. The computer models, unanimously, are showing a landfall pressure b/w 930 and 950mb. This would be the strongest landfalling cyclone in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic since 1938. The assumption from the NWS/NHC is that the storm will be significantly weaker than the modeled intensity, because computer models have a tendency to over-intensify tropical cyclones that are transitioning to extratropical cyclones (see, e.g., Hurricane Isaac, forcast to be down in the 940s as it passed NYC; actual verification ~965mb). If the modeled intensities are accurate, this will be a major, potentially Ike/Katrina/Andrew type natural disaster.
But that was the thing: right on the coast, it wasn't all that bad. My dad lived, at the time, a few miles in from the Jersey shore, not far from where the storm made land, and it wasn't bad near him at all. It was in places a day or two later, and far inland, in New England and upstate New York (as several have noted above), where winds and then flooding were way more than inconvenient. The "East Coast" is a big place, and a storm that doesn't do much damage in Atlantic City or New York can wreak hell elsewhere.
Long Island is a big place. The north & south shores had different experiences.
This is a worrying development. The computer models, unanimously, are showing a landfall pressure b/w 930 and 950mb. This would be the strongest landfalling cyclone in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic since 1938. The assumption from the NWS/NHC is that the storm will be significantly weaker than the modeled intensity, because computer models have a tendency to over-intensify tropical cyclones that are transitioning to extratropical cyclones (see, e.g., Hurricane Isaac, forcast to be down in the 940s as it passed NYC; actual verification ~965mb). If the modeled intensities are accurate, this will be a major, potentially Ike/Katrina/Andrew type natural disaster.
That's exactly the take I got from wading through those weather reports. The fact that the existing storm has been temporarily reclassified downward is actually a bad sign, not a good one. The biggest unanswered question for those of us on the East Coast right now is exactly where the ground zero point of the damage is going to be located. The last I looked it was likely to be New York City / Long Island / New Jersey, but it could be anywhere from the Chesapeake region all the way to New England.
And as I've said in the political thread, this could be an enormous factor in the election for several reasons, ranging from the candidates' reactions to the federal government's response to the potential to affect the turnout in swing states in the Northeast and midwest that are hit the worst. Hard as it is to believe, it may be a factor that's even more important than POLL BIAS!
I actually sort of suspected this and was sort of saying "Good News" in a a darkly ironic Prof. Farnsworth kind of way.
Thus "much of the east coast. . . "
It's the vigil of All Saints Day, so my God doesn't hate Halloween.
So, I live on the UWS. There are plenty of trees nearby. What should I be doing right now?
EDIT: Saw "Grace" this afternoon. That was fun.
(Detroit has 2%)
There's a good argument, given the quality of the buildings in NYC, that Zone A shouldn't be evacuated even if it's going to flood, but talking down the forecast worst storm in 100 years is really bizzare.
Forecast for NYC is currently 4-8 foot storm surge (Irene peaked at a shade under 5ft) and 70-80mph wind gusts. Basically akin to the December 1992 Nor'Easter, but slightly stronger across the board.
I hope the rest of the country is equally lucky.
If you don't live in the city, if you live in a coastal area, if you live in a house, then obviously you need to make preparations. Otherwise, no.
Just saw that. On NY1 just now they said that someone at the MTA said that the subway will reopen "12 hours after the storm ends", which is pretty nebulous as predictions go.
If you're drinking the hard stuff, then yes.
The only thing I can imagine really going wrong in higher-level areas in Manhattan is a backup of delivery of new supplies to stores. Our deli on the corner has a generator and won't close no matter what, but what happens once they sell out? How long will it take for their supply lines to get back up and running? Not long but I could imagine a day or two.
/kidding i have a few places we can go.
Manhattan as a whole is unlikely to lose power for more than 1-2 days.
My buying today was for non-perishable foods, Ray, which you should buy too.
Baseball Mogul is *definitely* going to get a workout this week.
Party on the UWS, y0! We loaded up on lox because, you know, practicality.
i also picked up a can of powdered gatorade (it's got what plants crave), and way too few cliff-bars, at least if this actually turns into a hurripocalypse.
Your avatar failed to make it to the WS again in 2024, sir.
Because I know the first thing I think of doing when I think the world is ending is shave.
Note the word "most" in the sentence you responded to.
@Blastin:
...Wait 'til next year!
So, pulling a reverse-DiPerna, is it worth it to duct tape the windows? I've got trees near my windows! TREES!
If that is a serious question, the answer is no.
Even the potato bread was out at the store I went into. So for the second year in a row these idiots prevent me from making a sandwich.
You know, if there was a proper wealth distribution system set up in the US, someone would have had to give you a couple slices of potato bread, and you could have made a sandwich.
Maybe you should have been prepared.
So do places south of here (like Lafayette Indiana) where the drought was more severe & I wonder if the trees that were weakened by the drought will be more likely to come down. Yikes!
I have an electric pump so my water goes if my electricity goes. I'm hoping that doesn't happen. It isn't supposed to be very cold so I don't need to worry about pipes freezing.
A friend of mine is co-teaching a class and her part of it is looking at the criminal justice implications of climate change. The stress of climate change can create more stress among people, etc. You can imagine the implications.
Arizona signed you to a big money deal but you're past your prime. Still put up a big year (1.066 OPS, though that's below your career avg), and pushed your former team (NYM, of course) to 7 games in the 2025 NLCS.
But then NYY beat up the Mets, as always.
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