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Tuesday, September 02, 2014

The indisputable selfishness of Derek Jeter

The indisputable selfishness of Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is often portrayed as the perfect team player, but the inevitably poor production of his age-40 season is putting the Yankees in a bind from which only he can free it. The reason so many people get annoyed with Derek

EvilBoWeevil Posted: September 02, 2014 at 02:27 PM | 165 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 02, 2014 at 02:52 PM (#4783861)
This would be more convincing if the Yankees actually had a better replacement in mind, and actually had a ghost of a chance of having that replacement get them to the postseason. If you want to blame anything for the Yankees' current blahs, blame their #21 ranked farm system.
   2. McCoy Posted: September 02, 2014 at 02:57 PM (#4783871)
Clearly jeter is selfish. We know this because he isn't sharing his cell phone pics like Justin verlander does.
   3. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:16 PM (#4783899)
As long as he doesn't share pictures of his junk ala Verlander.
   4. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:17 PM (#4783900)
We know this because he isn't sharing his cell phone pics like Justin verlander does.


That is probably the El Dorado of female celeb pics. If he's got pics of all the famous women he's been with, it would put to shame "The Fappening" (as this current leak is being called).

Mariah Carey
Jordana Brewster
Tyra Banks
Vanessa Minnillo
Jessica Alba
Scarlett Johansson
Jessica Biel
Minka Kelly
and a slew of models (and a Miss Universe winner) that I've never heard of...

   5. Batman Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:24 PM (#4783915)
There should be a farewell tour for the old phone whenever Jeter upgrades his cell.
   6. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4783923)
Andy, what about Drew? He's a championship caliber defensive shortstop hitting .306 with a .531 slugging percentage since joining the Yanks.

Oh, my bad, that's a .306 SLG and .531 OPS.
   7. Swedish Chef Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:41 PM (#4783930)
When was the last time a sports writer bowed out because they contributed nothing anymore?
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4783935)
Is Derek Jeter history's greatest monster?
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4783936)
This would be more convincing if the Yankees actually had a better replacement . . .

I don't know of a single Yankee fan clamoring for more of the 47 & 49 OPS+ of Brendan Ryan and Stephen Drew. Jeter is still the best option.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:54 PM (#4783947)
I don't know of a single Yankee fan clamoring for more of the 47 & 49 OPS+ of Brendan Ryan and Stephen Drew. Jeter is still the best option.


It probably wouldn't hurt to move him lower in the lineup, though.
   11. Baldrick Posted: September 02, 2014 at 03:55 PM (#4783948)
I don't know of a single Yankee fan clamoring for more of the 47 & 49 OPS+ of Brendan Ryan and Stephen Drew. Jeter is still the best option.

Jeter's WAR this year: 0.3
Drew's WAR this year: 0.1

In 2014, so far, they've both been terrible. However, Drew is almost a decade younger and was quite good last year. Maybe he's not a GREAT option at this point, but at least there's a chance he could provide average value. There is effectively zero chance of that from Jeter.

Oh, and Drew's .531 OPS since he's come to the Yankees has been better than Jeter over that time. That's how bad Jeter has been.

Edit: I don't mean to affiliate myself with "Jeter is a selfish monster." The guy has been bad but not TERRIBLE. It's not crazy for him to still think he can contribute, and I don't blame him for wanting to play. But it sure seems like he could have been more valuable to the team playing 80-90 games this year, rather than being the everyday shortstop.
   12. TDF, situational idiot Posted: September 02, 2014 at 04:00 PM (#4783953)
Obviously you guys can't read.

HIS SELFISHNESS CANNOT BE DISPUTED!!!
   13. EvilBoWeevil Posted: September 02, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4783957)
I have a feeling it's more Yankees management unwilling to move him rather then Jeter being selfish. I remember reading when Cashman told him that he needed to work on his defense he was willing. Torre was supposed to talk to him about it but never did. I think if Girardi said, "we need to move you down in the lineup" Jeter would. I just think they never did that.
   14. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 02, 2014 at 04:08 PM (#4783962)
Andy, what about Drew? He's a championship caliber defensive shortstop hitting .306 with a .531 slugging percentage since joining the Yanks.

Oh, my bad, that's a .306 SLG and .531 OPS.


He's also hitting .153 with an OPS+ of 49 and a WAR of 0.1. His defensive upside is so small that it could just as easily be negated by his offensive downside.

Look, the Yankees aren't going anywhere but home in October, and in four short weeks BTF's Long National Nightmare will be over, so just take a chill pill and pray that Tanaka's and Nova's woes won't return in 2015. My only worry is about what's to become of Repoz once his favorite pinata is out of his everyday reach.
   15. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: September 02, 2014 at 04:18 PM (#4783974)
Well, there's also the fact that they didn't pursue a replacement for Jeter because they knew he wouldn't sit.
   16. The District Attorney Posted: September 02, 2014 at 04:43 PM (#4784009)
I have a feeling it's more Yankees management unwilling to move him rather then Jeter being selfish. I remember reading when Cashman told him that he needed to work on his defense he was willing. Torre was supposed to talk to him about it but never did. I think if Girardi said, "we need to move you down in the lineup" Jeter would. I just think they never did that.
I dunno about now. I think back in the day, yes. But it's like how you spoil a kid. They made him the captain, even though he's shown no inclination to organize or stand up for his teammates. They didn't move him off his position for a better defensive player. The entire Torre era was very much about the team, not just the fans, buying into the True Yankee vs. Interloper narrative. So now, after a couple of decades of that, the rules are clear: The Yankee organization does not have the option to treat Derek Jeter like a regular player. I think he does expect that now. And the world expects that. And based on how the Yankees have treated him over the years, why the hell would anyone not expect that.

Now, at this point, the Yankees are playing more for the Derek Jeter Farewell Tour than for winning a pennant, which is little more than a theoretical mathematical possibility. And I don't think that, short of the team's failure to acquire Jose Reyes or something this offseason, Jeter's performance can be blamed for the team being in that position. Still, that doesn't mean that things ever should have gotten to this point. (Or that Jeter is even the best option right now from a game-winning perspective.)
   17. Sunday silence Posted: September 02, 2014 at 04:58 PM (#4784038)
cant they find a SS who's better fielding would outweigh whatever limitations they have on the offensive side of things? I thought the conventional wisdom was that Jeter gives up tons of runs in the field; cant they find a SS to suck up some of those?
   18. villageidiom Posted: September 02, 2014 at 05:12 PM (#4784051)
Batting order doesn't matter much, or so I've heard.
   19. McCoy Posted: September 02, 2014 at 05:40 PM (#4784090)
Didn't he also date Alyssa Milano?
   20. McCoy Posted: September 02, 2014 at 05:44 PM (#4784092)
Mariah Carey
Jordana Brewster
Tyra Banks
Vanessa Minnillo
Jessica Alba
Scarlett Johansson
Jessica Biel
Minka Kelly
and a slew of models (and a Miss Universe winner) that I've never heard of...


The thing of it is is that I think there are already pictures of all these women already floating around from various movies, photo shoots, paparazzi, and hacked phones.
   21. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 02, 2014 at 05:56 PM (#4784101)
So now, after a couple of decades of that, the rules are clear: The Yankee organization does not have the option to treat Derek Jeter like a regular player. I think he does expect that now. And the world expects that. And based on how the Yankees have treated him over the years, why the hell would anyone not expect that.


Well, that's one of the costs of having a true superstar spend his whole career with your team. If Rivera had fallen apart last year, it would have been very difficult for the Yanks to move him out of the closer's role. The Orioles had to manage around Cal Ripken's streak. Casey Stengel wanted DiMaggio to move to first base; DiMaggio didn't say no, but sulked enough to make it untenable. On the whole, I think most teams would like to have those problems.
   22. shoelesjoe Posted: September 02, 2014 at 06:09 PM (#4784106)
Batting order doesn't matter much, or so I've heard.


It probably doesn't, on a game by game basis. But batting somebody with a .620 OPS in the 2 slot the entire season will definitely cost the team wins.
   23. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 02, 2014 at 06:13 PM (#4784109)
Didn't he also date Alyssa Milano?


She only dated pitchers.
   24. The District Attorney Posted: September 02, 2014 at 07:59 PM (#4784170)
the Yankees will wear a patch depicting Jeter's final season logo on the left sleeve of their uniform and cap. The patch will be worn by the team from September 7 through the end of the 2014 season.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: September 02, 2014 at 08:10 PM (#4784174)

"Didn't he also date Alyssa Milano?"

He lunged for her, but she got past him and went into centerfield.
   26. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: September 02, 2014 at 08:30 PM (#4784185)
Well, there's also the fact that they didn't pursue a replacement for Jeter because they knew he wouldn't sit.


That's not on Jeter, but the will of Cashman and Girardi. Legend or not, if they tell him to sit he doesn't have any more say in the matter than Bernie or Jorge did. And Jorge certainly was not cool with the way his final season went down.
   27. Jay Seaver Posted: September 02, 2014 at 08:37 PM (#4784187)
Didn't he also date Alyssa Milano?


If he did, then this blog post would be more bitter than awesome.
   28. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 02, 2014 at 08:39 PM (#4784188)
The Orioles had to manage around Cal Ripken's streak.

And Ripken had a 70 OPS+ in his final season. Lots of great players have done worse than Jeter in their final season.
   29. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 02, 2014 at 09:02 PM (#4784194)
Now all the NY players will be sporting a "Derek Jeter Patch" from 7 Sept until the end of the season.

This is getting...well I don't know what to call it now.
It moved past ridiculous in May, headed to insanity in June and is now rounding the corner of just some f*cked up sh*t before this latest "tribute" announcement.

   30. Howie Menckel Posted: September 02, 2014 at 09:03 PM (#4784196)

Twitter

Mike Gianella ?@MikeGianella 13m

They're not honoring Jeter, they're using the patch to try to wean themselves off of him over the next few weeks.
   31. flournoy Posted: September 02, 2014 at 09:12 PM (#4784199)
That is the dumbest thing I've heard in a long time. Patches are, and should be, reserved for dead guys.
   32. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: September 02, 2014 at 09:15 PM (#4784203)
Patches are, and should be, reserved for dead guys.


Have you seen Jeter's numbers lately?
   33. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: September 02, 2014 at 09:57 PM (#4784226)
He lunged for her, but she got past him and went into centerfield.


Primey nominee.
   34. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 02, 2014 at 10:00 PM (#4784228)

If he did, then this blog post would be more bitter than awesome.


I think it would just become bitter AND awesome.

As celebrity baseball fans go, she's really top-notch. Hell, she's just a top-notch baseball fan altogether.

   35. bookbook Posted: September 02, 2014 at 10:19 PM (#4784242)
+And Ripken had a 70 OPS+ in his final season. Lots of great players have done worse than Jeter in their final season.+

Yeah, but Ripken still plays a better SS than Jetes, even lugging the extra 100 lbs around.
   36. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 02, 2014 at 10:33 PM (#4784248)
This would be more convincing if the Yankees actually had a better replacement in mind,


Why do you continue to repeat this silliness? There is no way that Jeter is a better player than Drew at this point, and an argument could be made that Ryan is a better player also. And please don't cite Drew's 2014 stat line as if 2013 and 2012, and 1983 and 1974, didn't exist.

and actually had a ghost of a chance of having that replacement get them to the postseason


This makes no sense. Why does the replacement have to "get them to the postseason" all by himself? You try to improve the team any way you can and hope that enough players play well -- including the replacement -- to get you there.

You know, Yankees fans would look a lot less dumb if they just admitted, "Yeah, we know Drew is a better player than Jeter; we'd still rather see Jeter finish out his career at the position." Instead they claim Jeter is not only the better SS but that he should get the second-most PAs on the team by hitting second. On the one hand you have Masahiro Tanaka risking further injury to come back from an elbow tear, and on the other hand you've got Jeter playing SS and hitting second when Drew is on the team. The Yankees have been trying to serve two masters.
   37. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 02, 2014 at 10:43 PM (#4784251)
Please stop pretending that Stephen Drew's 2014 stat line doesn't exist.
   38. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 02, 2014 at 10:52 PM (#4784257)
I have a feeling it's more Yankees management unwilling to move him rather then Jeter being selfish.


There's no way for someone on the outside to say. It's been a bizarre career for Jeter, in that he has been the worst defensive shortstop ever to play the position for this long. I just don't know who that falls on.

Of course, he's been a Hall of Famer nonetheless, so it's hard to say the decision didn't work; obviously it did. But there's a chance he could have helped more as a 3B or CF years ago. Hell, maybe even as a 2B. IIRC there was an opportunity for each 10+ years ago, when Williams was on his way out as the CF, Aaron Boone got hurt as the 3B, and Chuck Knoblauch found himself moving to LF. Then again, would Jeter have been a better player at 3B or 2B than ARod or Cano? No, most likely not.
   39. Rob_Wood Posted: September 02, 2014 at 11:38 PM (#4784284)
The MLB Now crew discussed this today, with all of the commentators ripping into Jeter. One guy talked about his "statuesque" defense. Another talked about his anemic offense (though Brian Kenney mentioned that his OBA is decent when you include on base on errors).
   40. Mom makes botox doctors furious Posted: September 03, 2014 at 02:05 AM (#4784334)
"The reason so many people get annoyed with Derek"

People are annoyed with Derek? Me thinks this is one of those "if i write it, it will be true" sentences.

That's what me thinks....and it's annoying!!
   41. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:22 AM (#4784350)
+And Ripken had a 70 OPS+ in his final season. Lots of great players have done worse than Jeter in their final season.+

Yeah, but Ripken still plays a better SS than Jetes, even lugging the extra 100 lbs around.
Also, the 2001 Orioles were 63-98, 32.5 games out - not wild card contenders.
   42. Jeltzandini Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:45 AM (#4784352)
Patches are, and should be, reserved for dead guys.


That's literally true, isn't it? Any known exceptions until this?

This is partly a societal trend towards memorial/celebration inflation. 9/11 memorialization practically employed thousands by 9/12. The troops are honored at every sports event, frequently with a flyover. Jackie Robinson went from HOF to universal number retirement to universal 42 day.

Now the Jeterpatch, which would have been seen as an Onion article a month ago, is reality.
   43. BDC Posted: September 03, 2014 at 08:39 AM (#4784374)
I dunno. Jeter's not good. Jeter's 40. Jeter's batting .260 in a .255 league. Drew is batting .167 in a .255 league. The Yankees have 99 problems. Jeter and Drew are two of them.
   44. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:08 AM (#4784393)
If Jeter had retired last year and this were a 40 year old Omar Vizquel at SS, every Yankees fan would want Drew to start instead. This is all about the Name of the player.

Jeter shouldn't even DH, since the steroids-cheat catcher should be DH'ing with McCann behind the plate.

Not that it matters anyway. The Yankees are cooked by now.

   45. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:20 AM (#4784404)
This would be more convincing if the Yankees actually had a better replacement in mind,

Why do you continue to repeat this silliness? There is no way that Jeter is a better player than Drew at this point,


Your love affair with an 49 OPS+ player without a single multi-hit game in the past month must have some deeper explanation.

And please don't cite Drew's 2014 stat line as if 2013 and 2012, and 1983 and 1974, didn't exist.

Yes, maybe the Yankees could apply those 2013 numbers to the games of this September, while throwing out this year's meaningless stats.

and actually had a ghost of a chance of having that replacement get them to the postseason

This makes no sense. Why does the replacement have to "get them to the postseason" all by himself? You try to improve the team any way you can and hope that enough players play well -- including the replacement -- to get you there.


I know that it's politically correct to pretend that the Yankees are still in playoff contention, but can't we just give it a rest? At this point about the only thing they've got going for them is Girardi's deal with the devil.

You know, Yankees fans would look a lot less dumb if they just admitted, "Yeah, we know Drew is a better player than Jeter; we'd still rather see Jeter finish out his career at the position."

And you'd look a lot less dumb if you just admitted that even if Drew were to save a game or two with his defense, that it wouldn't make a damn bit of difference to the Yankees' nonexistent postseason chances.

Instead they claim Jeter is not only the better SS but that he should get the second-most PAs on the team by hitting second.

If by "Yankees fans" you mean "Yankees fans who never post here", you may have a point. Nobody here thinks that Jeter is either a good defensive SS or should be batting second.

On the one hand you have Masahiro Tanaka risking further injury to come back from an elbow tear,

Tanaka's about as likely to pitch another inning this year as Grover Cleveland Alexander, in spite of Girardi's "we'll see" comments.



   46. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:21 AM (#4784406)
Not that it matters anyway. The Yankees are cooked by now.

You could have saved a lot of electrons if you'd just left it at that. It's the first relevant thing you've written on this entire thread.
   47. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:32 AM (#4784416)
There's no way for someone on the outside to say. It's been a bizarre career for Jeter, in that he has been the worst defensive shortstop ever to play the position for this long. I just don't know who that falls on.


An outsider can 100% make the observation that management has not had the will to move Jeter. If they really wanted him at a different position, whether this year, 2004, or 1999, it would have happened. It's pretty simple, they tell him to move and no matter how much he complains he eventually either sucks it up and moves, or else he doesn't get paid, accrue service time, or get out of his contract. Just ask Soriano and Frank Robinson how that works.
   48. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:29 AM (#4784445)
Tanaka's about as likely to pitch another inning this year as Grover Cleveland Alexander, in spite of Girardi's "we'll see" comments.


Or in 2015.
   49. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:33 AM (#4784449)
Not that it matters anyway. The Yankees are cooked by now.


You could have saved a lot of electrons if you'd just left it at that. It's the first relevant thing you've written on this entire thread.


If your point is that Drew is the better player now but that the Yankees are essentially out of contention so it doesn't matter, I wouldn't take issue with it. I think that's a defensible position, that you'd rather have a favorite player of yours finish out his career at SS than go for the playoffs, especially when it's very likely they won't make it anyway.

But citing nothing more than Drew's 2014 OPS+ is really bad analysis.
   50. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:34 AM (#4784450)
Tanaka's about as likely to pitch another inning this year as Grover Cleveland Alexander, in spite of Girardi's "we'll see" comments.

Or in 2015.


Better no 2015 than no ever.
   51. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:46 AM (#4784460)
If your point is that Drew is the better player now but that the Yankees are essentially out of contention so it doesn't matter, I wouldn't take issue with it. I think that's a defensible position, that you'd rather have a favorite player of yours finish out his career at SS than go for the playoffs, especially when it's very likely they won't make it anyway.

But citing nothing more than Drew's 2014 OPS+ is really bad analysis.


It's really a bit of both. The point is that whatever the marginal difference the 2014 Drew might possibly make to the Yankees' September prospects,** it's not worth it when the results of that difference don't have even the slightest chance of putting the Yankees in the postseason. As you know as well as anyone, the Yankees' problems run a whole lot deeper than any hypothetical projected difference between Upside Drew and Upside Jeter over the last 26 games of the season.

And of course all the hoopla surrounding Jeter's retirement is insanely out of proportion by normal standards, but really, so what? His teammates and rival players don't seem to be bothered by it, the fans seem to like it, and this is an era when every team is going to milk every last dollar out of marketing an event that they'll never have an opportunity to market again. I'd just take a deep breath and try to ignore it as best you can, or bask in it if you're a big fan of his.

**which in itself is a 50-50 proposition
   52. tfbg9 Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:47 AM (#4784463)
MLB.com's playoff odds thingy has the NYY's at 3% this AM.
   53. Ron J2 Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:48 AM (#4784465)
Batting order doesn't matter much, or so I've heard


Well sort of. With willful stupidity and the right type of team you can cost yourself as much as 50 runs. Takes a team with extreme talents (the 1930 Cubs was the one Bill James used for his study). Bat Hack Wilson 9th (limits his PAs) and keep him away from Woody English and Kiki Cuyler (very good at getting on base, so that not only will Wilson have fewer PAs, heèll have fewer PAs with runners on)

It takes creativity to get potential batting order damage as high as 20 runs. It's mostly as simple as each batting order spot being worth ~18 PAs a year so by batting a lesser hitter up in the order you're taking a bunch of PAs away from a more talented hitter and giving them to a lesser one. It's more complicated than this, but there is roughly nothing at stake in trying to decide whether prime Mark McGwire should bat 3rd or 4th. (He'll get fewer PAs batting 4th, but more PAs with runners on)
   54. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:53 AM (#4784471)
MLB.com's playoff odds thingy has the NYY's at 3% this AM.

Of which about 2.99999% is East Coast bias. (smile)
   55. BDC Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:58 AM (#4784477)
citing nothing more than Drew's 2014 OPS+ is really bad analysis

I take your general point, Ray. OTOH, they gave Drew 80 PAs in August and he hit .153. If he was going to help them in any way, Jeter or no Jeter, that was the time to do it.
   56. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:01 AM (#4784480)
The thing about hitting Jeter #2 - presuming you must play him in the first place, because, C2ptain or whatever it is, is that Jeter is the worst hitter in the lineup. And he's 40 and hasn't hit in two years, so he has a significantly less of a chance of having a good month than the others do. His highest OPS month this year is .670 and he hasn't seen a .700 OPS month since September of 2012. Yes, he was hurt last year... but that's also sort of the point.

So the wails about "who are you going to hit second then?!" are really dumb. The answer is anyone.
   57. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:09 AM (#4784486)
I take your general point, Ray. OTOH, they gave Drew 80 PAs in August and he hit .153. If he was going to help them in any way, Jeter or no Jeter, that was the time to do it.


80 PA is a very small sample. Miguel Cabrera just had a .691 OPS August (127 PA) and no sane person thinks he can no longer hit.

Drew has 226 bad PA this year. Big whoop.
   58. flournoy Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:19 AM (#4784491)
That's literally true, isn't it? Any known exceptions until this?


Well, this year the Braves are wearing patches commemorating the 40th anniversary of Hank Aaron's 715th home run. I can let that one slide.

Unless I'm quite mistaken, the Braves did not wear Bobby Cox patches in 2010 or Chipper Jones patches in 2012.
   59. Jeltzandini Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:24 AM (#4784494)
So the wails about "who are you going to hit second then?!" are really dumb. The answer is anyone.


Last night's 6-7-8-9 were McCann-Prado-Headley-Cervelli. McCann's 237/289/392 so he's probably better off where he is. The other three are all considerably better than 2014 Jeter at all aspects of hitting.

This year's AL has about 100 runs difference between the best and worst offenses. Which granted is flukishly narrow; the RA spread is 248. But if playing Jeter/batting him 2nd only costs a few or a dozen runs, well, that's the sort of margin that teams try to wring out with all sorts of decisions. A win or two materially moves the needle on playoff chances. I don't see how the Yankees' other problems make a bad call on Jeter unimportant. All of the mediocre competitors for the last wild card spot have many problems too.

   60. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:29 AM (#4784498)
Patches are, and should be, reserved for dead guys.


More than the fact that Derek Jeter is still alive, the weird thing about it is that he's still active. So Jeter will be wearing a patch commemorating himself.
   61. BDC Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:34 AM (#4784506)
80 PA is a very small sample

Right. But it's also the time to step up and do something. Nobody helps a team win by invoking a normative extrapolation of his true talent. He has to actually hit baseballs :)
   62. BDC Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:36 AM (#4784508)
the weird thing about it is that he's still active

Reminiscent of the White Sox retiring Harold Baines's number after trading him away.
   63. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:36 AM (#4784510)
Right. But it's also the time to step up and do something. Nobody helps a team win by invoking a normative extrapolation of his true talent. He has to actually hit baseballs :)


But "step up and do something" is sportswriter talk. This is baseball. Players can't will themselves to hit. If they could, Jeter wouldn't be hitting to a .620 OPS. Why didn't he "step up and do something"? Was he not capable, or did he just not want to? Or is the notion meaningless.
   64. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:37 AM (#4784511)
So Jeter will be wearing a patch commemorating himself.


Hell, he's already worn shoes worshipping himself.
   65. BDC Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:53 AM (#4784527)
Why didn't he "step up and do something"? Was he not capable, or did he just not want to?

I assume it's one of those things. But be that as it may, the season is flying past, and Drew has done nothing to help the Yankees win.

It's like your toilet is leaking and your brother-in-law is making it worse. You call the neighbor and he breaks several things in the house just on his way to the bathroom. You can accept the neighbor's word that he's really handy, and entrust the wrench to him based on his extensive odd-job CV, or maybe it just isn't your day and you have to shut the water off at the main and wait till Tulowitzki can show up :)
   66. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:53 AM (#4784528)
C2ptain or whatever it is,


It's Captai2.

So he's wearing shoes that commemorate him, and a patch that commemorates him.
And, on the final day, there will be a whole day commemorating him, including a plaque that commemorates him, and a retired number that will commemorate him.
I wouldn't be surprised if NYC decides to rename a street around Yankee Stadium to commemorate him.

   67. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:57 AM (#4784531)
I wouldn't be surprised if NYC decides to rename a street around Yankee Stadium to commemorate him.


I fully expect NYC will name at least one street after him. I just hope they don't make it one of the numbered avenues, because those SOBs are sacred.

   68. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 12:04 PM (#4784540)
I assume it's one of those things. But be that as it may, the season is flying past, and Drew has done nothing to help the Yankees win.


I guess we just disagree as to the analysis, then. We'll leave it at that.

Simply put I see the 80 bad PA Drew has for the Yankees this year, and the 150 bad PA he had for the Red Sox, as simply part of the story, which also includes 500 PA at a 110 OPS+ last year and 330 PA at an 80 OPS+ in 2012, as well as the fact that he's nearly a decade younger than Jeter, who himself hasn't hit since 2012. Drew is a better defender as well.

It is simply flawed analysis to ignore Drew's 2013 and 2012 performances.
   69. BDC Posted: September 03, 2014 at 12:14 PM (#4784547)
I'll agree to disagree. I agree that if Drew had come in and batted .450 for August, and the Yankees had buried him because he was showing up their captain, that would stink. But it's very hard to win a job from any incumbent when you start off by doing a lot worse at it.
   70. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 12:20 PM (#4784552)
Except that it's not incumbent on Drew to "win the job." It's incumbent on management to recognize who the better player is.

But this is all pointless because obviously they know who the better player is. They're just deciding to ignore that fact so that they can serve two masters (a playoff run on the one hand and Jeter on the other). So be it. They'll be free from their second master next year and clearly they've just decided to suck it up until then.
   71. villageidiom Posted: September 03, 2014 at 12:29 PM (#4784560)
And you'd look a lot less dumb if you just admitted that even if Drew were to save a game or two with his defense, that it wouldn't make a damn bit of difference to the Yankees' nonexistent postseason chances.
If you were actually concerned for how dumb Ray would look, you wouldn't suggest the way to do that is for him to say, "It's over. It's always been over."
   72. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 12:35 PM (#4784566)
And please don't cite Drew's 2014 stat line as if 2013 and 2012, and 1983 and 1974, didn't exist.

Yes, maybe the Yankees could apply those 2013 numbers to the games of this September, while throwing out this year's meaningless stats.
This year's meaningless stats have exactly the same relation to September as those 2013 numbers do.
   73. OCD SS Posted: September 03, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4784573)
How did we get this far without a gift-basket joke? He always seemed very generous with those...
   74. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 01:31 PM (#4784623)
And you'd look a lot less dumb if you just admitted that even if Drew were to save a game or two with his defense, that it wouldn't make a damn bit of difference to the Yankees' nonexistent postseason chances.

If you were actually concerned for how dumb Ray would look, you wouldn't suggest the way to do that is for him to say, "It's over. It's always been over."


So finally someone catches the intentional allusion. Congratulations, only this time it's all over but the crying. The only thing that ever could have saved this Yankees team for the postseason would have been to go back to March and then put the clock back about five years. It's not as if nobody noticed during the offseason that a roster as stacked with aging players in the twilight of their careers was almost inevitably going to wind up half crippled and half gassed during the final months of the season.

------------------------------------------------------------

And please don't cite Drew's 2014 stat line as if 2013 and 2012, and 1983 and 1974, didn't exist.


Yes, maybe the Yankees could apply those 2013 numbers to the games of this September, while throwing out this year's meaningless stats.

This year's meaningless stats have exactly the same relation to September as those 2013 numbers do.


Nevertheless, Jeter has outhit Drew from start to finish this year. Just why anyone would expect a player (Drew) who's hovered around the .560 OPS mark for his entire season to suddenly revert to his 2013 form with just four weeks to go is one of those things that's just hard for us non-geniuses to understand. Players aren't robots (see "Davis, Chris"), and just because on average you can project performance from one year to the next doesn't mean that those projections will always hold up. Add to that the fact that Drew missed Spring training and the first two months of the season, and any supposition that he's going to change from a pumpkin to Cinderella in September becomes all the more laughable.
   75. villageidiom Posted: September 03, 2014 at 02:33 PM (#4784691)
Nevertheless, Jeter has outhit Drew from start to finish this year. Just why anyone would expect a player (Drew) who's hovered around the .560 OPS mark for his entire season to suddenly revert to his 2013 form with just four weeks to go is one of those things that's just hard for us non-geniuses to understand. Players aren't robots (see "Davis, Chris"), and just because on average you can project performance from one year to the next doesn't mean that those projections will always hold up.

It has been studied repeatedly, and each study has shown that at any point in the season a given player is far more likely to perform in line with projected performance at that point in the season than he is with his actual performance in that season. Absent any other knowledge, we should expect Drew and Jeter to perform through the rest of September in line with the current projections for Drew and Jeter, not in line with their season performance to date. This is true regardless of how they've performed to date, and regardless of how much that performance deviates from projection.

Obviously, and as you note, players aren't robots. Some outperform, some underperform. The point is that none of us - not you, not me, not Joe Girardi, not Brian Cashman - can reliably pick which players will outperform or underperform their projection. Jeter might outperform Drew this month. He might not. But given what we know about both players we should expect Drew to be a fairly similar hitter to Jeter, and far better than Jeter in the field, in September.

In neither case should we expect a Cinderella performance in September, which is what it looks like they'll need. That just emphasizes that Ray, and you, and apparently I, agree on the relevant truth. I'll leave it to you and Ray to continue arguing about the trivia of what people mentally inferior to yourselves are thinking and how smart you are to be able to tell how dumb they are.
   76. craigamazing Posted: September 03, 2014 at 04:12 PM (#4784814)
It has been studied repeatedly, and each study has shown that at any point in the season a given player is far more likely to perform in line with projected performance at that point in the season than he is with his actual performance in that season. Absent any other knowledge, we should expect Drew and Jeter to perform through the rest of September in line with the current projections for Drew and Jeter, not in line with their season performance to date. This is true regardless of how they've performed to date, and regardless of how much that performance deviates from projection.

Obviously, and as you note, players aren't robots. Some outperform, some underperform. The point is that none of us - not you, not me, not Joe Girardi, not Brian Cashman - can reliably pick which players will outperform or underperform their projection. Jeter might outperform Drew this month. He might not. But given what we know about both players we should expect Drew to be a fairly similar hitter to Jeter, and far better than Jeter in the field, in September.

In neither case should we expect a Cinderella performance in September, which is what it looks like they'll need. That just emphasizes that Ray, and you, and apparently I, agree on the relevant truth. I'll leave it to you and Ray to continue arguing about the trivia of what people mentally inferior to yourselves are thinking and how smart you are to be able to tell how dumb they are.


We could have saved a lot of time if this were post #1 on this thread. Bang on.

Can someone tell me how Derek Jeter is worth 1.3 offensive war this year? Is the current standard for ML shortstops that bad?
   77. Jeltzandini Posted: September 03, 2014 at 04:43 PM (#4784854)
Can someone tell me how Derek Jeter is worth 1.3 offensive war this year? Is the current standard for ML shortstops that bad?


Yes, there are several regular/semi-regular shortstops who are hitting worse than Jeter. Andrew Romine, Everth Cabrera, Zack Cozart, Jean Segura, Wilmer Flores, Jonathan Villar. Jeter is in a group with Alexi Amarista, Ruben Tejada, Brad Miller, and Yunel Escobar. It's pretty grim out there.
   78. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 04:48 PM (#4784860)
In neither case should we expect a Cinderella performance in September, which is what it looks like they'll need. That just emphasizes that Ray, and you, and apparently I, agree on the relevant truth.

And since a Cinderella performance on the level of Stephen Drew becoming a 1982 Robin Yount would be the minimum requirement for giving the Yankees an iron lung's chance of breathing in the postseason, it makes any talk of Jeter's "indisputable selfishness" at this point little more than one more way to engage in the BTF National Pastime of Jeter bashing.

Can someone tell me how Derek Jeter is worth 1.3 offensive war this year? Is the current standard for ML shortstops that bad?

In the AL you've only got Aybar at 106 OPS+, and Alexei Ramirez and Reyes with 105 each, and more than that below Jeter. But in the NL, there are Tulowitski (171), Henley Ramirez and Frazier (122 each), Peralta (121), Castro (113), Owings (110), and Rollins (102). Jeter's SB rate is 90% (9 of 10) and of course His Captaincy adds many important intangibles, so that may make for a sliver of an explanation that otherwise makes little sense at first glance.
   79. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 04:50 PM (#4784864)
Nevertheless, Jeter has outhit Drew from start to finish this year. Just why anyone would expect a player (Drew) who's hovered around the .560 OPS mark for his entire season to suddenly revert to his 2013 form with just four weeks to go is one of those things that's just hard for us non-geniuses to understand.


Perhaps if you understood what you've been watching your whole life.

Players aren't robots (see "Davis, Chris"),


Not sure what Davis proves, but you're the one treating Drew as a "robot," bizarrely expecting him to repeat the worst 250 PA of his career despite the fact that the entire history of major league baseball shows that that's not the way to bet.

and just because on average you can project performance from one year to the next doesn't mean that those projections will always hold up.


Strawman.

Add to that the fact that Drew missed Spring training and the first two months of the season, and any supposition that he's going to change from a pumpkin to Cinderella in September becomes all the more laughable.


Nobody "supposes" that Drew is going to change into Cinderella. The point is that the intelligent bet is that Drew will out-hit (and out-field) Jeter the rest of the way. No, that's not guaranteed. Whoop dee doo.

You really don't know how to analyze baseball, do you?
   80. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 04:55 PM (#4784869)
And since a Cinderella performance on the level of Stephen Drew becoming a 1982 Robin Yount would be the minimum requirement for giving the Yankees an iron lung's chance of breathing in the postseason,


The point is that you try to make improvements where you can to put yourself in the best position that you can.

Once more: a "Cinderella performance" from a single player won't do it, so I have no idea why you keep saying that Drew has to hit like Tulowitzky in September for the move to make sense. The Yankees would need peak-range or fluke performances from several players in September to have a shot. And since Drew's ability level is higher than Jeter's now, Drew's peak-range performance ability is higher than Jeter's as well.
   81. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 05:05 PM (#4784879)
And since a Cinderella performance on the level of Stephen Drew becoming a 1982 Robin Yount would be the minimum requirement for giving the Yankees an iron lung's chance of breathing in the postseason,

The point is that you try to make improvements where you can to put yourself in the best position that you can.


If you'd said during the offseason that the Yankees should have gone after Drew, I'd agree with your point, since with 162 games to play those projections could have well made the difference of a few games.

And if in fact you were saying that the Yanks should have signed Drew, then give yourself a pat on the back for foresight. I certainly had zero illusions back in the Spring that Jeter was going to do any better than he has, given his age and his frail physical state compared to what it was prior to his 2012 injury.

But given the Yankees' current situation, as has been obvious for some time, you yourself gave the best answer to your own point:

44. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:08 AM (#4784393)

Not that it matters anyway. The Yankees are cooked by now.


   82. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 03, 2014 at 05:06 PM (#4784881)
Except that it's not incumbent on Drew to "win the job." It's incumbent on management to recognize who the better player is.

They did. He's the one starting.
   83. Nasty Nate Posted: September 03, 2014 at 05:12 PM (#4784884)
They did. He's the one starting.

But what are his stats away from Coors?
   84. Swedish Chef Posted: September 03, 2014 at 05:20 PM (#4784888)
It's not strange that Jeter is a sacred cow with his history, but how come the Braves haven't got the guts to put an end to BJ Upton's shambolic retirement* tour?

*) Not strictly true. It just looks like it.
   85. BDC Posted: September 03, 2014 at 05:53 PM (#4784916)
I guess what I was trying to say - not that anyone but Ray disagrees - is that the Yankees did acquire Drew, and gave him those 80 PAs, 16-18 games' worth, and he stunk. Even if one accepts that there's a 57% chance he might outhit Jeter by .030 in OPS or something in September, there is no good reason to believe they're being foolish by starting Jeter at SS over Drew. The guy is just not a panacea.
   86. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: September 03, 2014 at 06:30 PM (#4784939)
Even if one accepts that there's a 57% chance he might outhit Jeter by .030 in OPS or something in September, there is no good reason to believe they're being foolish by starting Jeter at SS over Drew.

Well, especially when combined with Drew's clear defensive edge, isn't the first part of your statement the "good reason" that, in the latter part of your statement you claim is absent(speaking strictly from a baseball standpoint, that is)?


   87. BDC Posted: September 03, 2014 at 07:34 PM (#4784976)
combined with Drew's clear defensive edge, isn't the first part of your statement the "good reason" that, in the latter part of your statement you claim is absent(speaking strictly from a baseball standpoint, that is)?

If we're playing 10,000 sim seasons, sure. But this is real time with real people. I'd argue that you'd need a stronger chance at a bigger advantage to switch. Which I guess is what you mean by a purely baseball standpoint; I'm thinking more of the level of confidence one would need to sell a personnel decision. If Drew had arrived batting .350 with 20 HR or something, maybe you can tell Jeter to take a seat for the club. But of course if Drew was having that kind of year he'd never have arrived. And if they'd have installed Drew at SS on 8/1 and Jeter had watched from the bench as Drew batted .150 for the month, that would have been hard to defend even to the steeliest calculator of chances.
   88. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: September 03, 2014 at 09:29 PM (#4785030)
Well that hypothetical individual wouldn't require that a defense be made, as he'd have approved of the decision on 8/1 and not been swayed by one month of new data.

Beyond that, I get what you're saying, but I guess I disagree about its on-field importance. And even if I did agree, since there seems to be a consensus that the 2014 Yankees are all but dead, wouldn't screwing with team chemistry be a good thing, as you don't really know if the end-result will be positive or negative. "Don't rock the boat" doesn't apply when the boat is already underwater.
   89. The District Attorney Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:16 PM (#4785052)
Look, the Yankees have (according to BP, anyway) a 3% chance to make the playoffs. That is not the current goal. The product they are selling is no longer the opportunity to see the result of a competitive baseball game. The product they're selling is the opportunity to see Derek Jeter. Why is that? Because it's the correct financial decision. With the pitch that this is your last chance to see Derek Jeter, you can get 40,000 people into the park. With the pitch that this is a meaningless September game, you cannot.

Under these circumstances, not playing Jeter would be like the 1980s WWF having a show that didn't include Hulk Hogan. People came to see a specific thing, that you have the option to provide to them, and yet you choose not to provide that thing. That creates unhappy customers, and is not smart business.

If you say that it'd be a lot better to make money off competitive baseball than off nostalgia, well, I totally agree! So then critique the decisions that got us to the point where there's nothing to play real baseball for. Critique the decision not to acquire a better alternative SS in the offseason (and presumably to also make it clear that that guy wasn't going to necessarily just sit and wait for Jeter to die.) Critique the decision not to use Ryan more earlier in the season. Critique the decision not to use Drew more when first acquired, possibly adding rust to an already-rusty guy. Hell, go back decades and question Jeter's entire history with the team, like I did earlier.

That's all good... but, if you accept all the decisions made up until now as givens (and again, I encourage you not to, but it's what you all seem to be doing!)... then it's best for the Yankees at this point if Jeter finishes out the season.
   90. Baldrick Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:30 PM (#4785058)
I've said it before but will keep saying it until it stops being true:

Part of what is so infuriating about all this is that Yankees fans treat a 3% chance of making the playoffs with less than a month to go (assuming we can even be that specific) as an invitation to give up on the season. Because it's beneath them, apparently, to care about a team who hasn't blown the doors of the opposition.

I don't disagree with #89, that from an economic perspective, it's a better strategy to just run Jeter out there and accept that it hurts the team a bit. But FANS SHOULDN'T THINK THAT WAY. They ought to be angry about the team shooting itself in the foot when they've still got a chance.

It's even more aggravating when you insist on pretending that you're trying to actually make objective judgments. See, for example, Andy in this thread. Who opened by insisting that Drew is terrible, worse than Jeter, useless. But when challenged, mocks the arguments by saying 'it's all pointless anyways since the team is cooked.' Or venturing off into flights of silliness about whether Drew is going to turn into Robin Yount, as if there simply wouldn't be a point in trying to improve the team unless you can replace a 0 WAR guy with an MVP candidate.
   91. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:34 PM (#4785060)
Beyond that, I get what you're saying, but I guess I disagree about its on-field importance. And even if I did agree, since there seems to be a consensus that the 2014 Yankees are all but dead, wouldn't screwing with team chemistry be a good thing, as you don't really know if the end-result will be positive or negative.

I must be misunderstanding what you're saying here, because I know you can't be saying that benching Jeter at this late date could possibly have any significant positive results beyond a few hypothetical statistical projections that may or may not actually play out.

Look, the Yankees' prospects for season ticket renewals in 2015 are already bleak enough as it is, unless you think that Yankee fans are excited about the return of A-Rod. If longtime season ticket holders were to get the message that their favorite player was being benched for the sake of something as completely marginal as the hypothetical advantage being discussed here, you could well see a hemorrhaging of those renewals.

Of course the Yankees would never think be thinking of crude financial considerations like the effect of benching Jeter on season ticket renewals---what's really important is whether they win 84 or 85 games and finish 4 or 5 games out of the wild card race.
   92. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:46 PM (#4785071)
The bottom line for me is that they go through all this trouble -- they sign McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran before the season, they acquire Prado and Headley and McCarthy and Drew during the season -- and so they're clearly are trying like hell to make the postseason -- and then they leave their washed up SS where he is rather than play the SS already on the roster who is clearly better.

You ask Tanaka to try to rehab his injury this year, while you're not making a clear move at SS that you can make? That's a bit much. It means that the SS decision is not about doing what's best for the team on the field. Which is fine, if that's the way you want to play it. But why people are denying this is pretty obvious.
   93. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:53 PM (#4785079)
I've said it before but will keep saying it until it stops being true:

Part of what is so infuriating about all this is that Yankees fans treat a 3% chance of making the playoffs with less than a month to go (assuming we can even be that specific) as an invitation to give up on the season. Because it's beneath them, apparently, to care about a team who hasn't blown the doors of the opposition.


"More Catholic than the Pope" is a good description of that sentiment.

I don't disagree with #89, that from an economic perspective, it's a better strategy to just run Jeter out there and accept that it hurts the team a bit. But FANS SHOULDN'T THINK THAT WAY. They ought to be angry about the team shooting itself in the foot when they've still got a chance.

Either you're a Yankee fan with a particularly strong set of delusions about this team's postseason chances, or you're just a garden variety stathead of the sort who refuses to consider anything beyond a spreadsheet, and is perpetually annoyed when anyone doesn't follow that pattern of reasoning.

It's even more aggravating when you insist on pretending that you're trying to actually make objective judgments. See, for example, Andy in this thread. Who opened by insisting that Drew is terrible, worse than Jeter, useless.

I simply made the apparently heretical argument that the past three months of Drew are a fairly good approximation of what the next month is likely to bring.

But when challenged, mocks the arguments by saying 'it's all pointless anyways since the team is cooked.'

To follow the Style Manual of Strunk and Nieporent: The. 2014. Yankees. ARE. cooked. I wish it weren't so, but being delusional isn't a pre-requisite for being a fan. Maybe for a ten year old.

Or venturing off into flights of silliness about whether Drew is going to turn into Robin Yount, as if there simply wouldn't be a point in trying to improve the team unless you can replace a 0 WAR guy with an MVP candidate.

Yes, I do think it'd be stupid beyond belief to bench Jeter for the sole reason that Drew's projected September numbers have a slightly better than 50% chance of being a tad better than Jeter's. Lock me up and throw away the key.

But as YC pointed out, Drew's starting anyway. (0 for 3 again tonight, and down to .164, but he'll get em tomorrow!) So you can now tell us how much the Yankees would improve by benching Jeter in favor of Brian Roberts.

   94. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 10:57 PM (#4785081)
Part of what is so infuriating about all this is that Yankees fans treat a 3% chance of making the playoffs with less than a month to go (assuming we can even be that specific) as an invitation to give up on the season.


I'm enjoying the dissonance here because when I made my fateful claim of "it's over" I was doing it based on a less than 1% chance per the playoff odds that the Red Sox would blow it. At this exact same point in the 2011 season, on September 3, 2011, the Red Sox were 9 games up on Tampa Bay, the team that would eventually take their playoff spot. The Red Sox had a 99.6% chance to make the playoffs. So less than 1% to blow it. (Tampa Bay's calculated odds to make it were 0.5%.) And here's Andy, proclaiming that the Yankees are essentially done, despite having a 3% chance to make it. He is doing exactly what he spent three years mocking me for doing. He is saying it's over, no need to try to improve the SS position, it's just over. (Alternately he is claiming that Jeter is objectively a better player than Drew right now.)
   95. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:01 PM (#4785084)
The bottom line for me is that they go through all this trouble -- they sign McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran before the season, they acquire Prado and Headley and McCarthy and Drew during the season -- and so they're clearly are trying like hell to make the postseason -- and then they leave their washed up SS where he is rather than play the SS already on the roster who is clearly better.

Again, the time to have raised that point was during the past offseason, not at a time when the season is gone---as you yourself have acknowledged it is, even if Baldrick is still dreaming of fictional endings.

What's nice is that with both Drew and Jeter starting, we'll have a chance to run a real time test of all these projections. Not that I'd ever expect you to admit anything even if Drew goes 8 for his last 125.
   96. Baldrick Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:10 PM (#4785088)
Again, the time to have raised that point was during the past offseason, not at a time when the season is gone---as you yourself have acknowledged it is, even if Baldrick is still dreaming of fictional endings.

It's been a long time coming, but I'm just going to go ahead and use that nice ignore function. Cheers.
   97. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:11 PM (#4785089)
I simply made the apparently heretical argument that the past three months of Drew are a fairly good approximation of what the next month is likely to bring.


Yeah, that's a dumb argument. That's not how major league baseball works.

The. 2014. Yankees. ARE. cooked.


And there it is: the "It's. Over. It's always been over." of the 2014 season. Regardless of what the Yankees do from here on out, I trust you will never again try to claim my logic was flawed for saying that.
   98. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:17 PM (#4785094)
I'm enjoying the dissonance here because when I made my fateful claim of "it's over" I was doing it based on a less than 1% chance per the playoff odds that the Red Sox would blow it. At this exact same point in the 2011 season, on September 3, 2011, the Red Sox were 9 games up on Tampa Bay, the team that would eventually take their playoff spot. The Red Sox had a 99.6% chance to make the playoffs. So less than 1% to blow it. (Tampa Bay's calculated odds to make it were 0.5%.) And here's Andy, proclaiming that the Yankees are essentially done, despite having a 3% chance to make it. He is doing exactly what he spent three years mocking me for doing. He is saying it's over, no need to try to improve the SS position, it's just over. (Alternately he is claiming that Jeter is objectively a better player than Drew right now.)

Ray, I sincerely hope that you'll have the opportunity to spend the next 30 years mocking me as Drew goes on a tear and leads the Yankees to an ending that would top anything they've done since the days of Clark Griffith and Wee Willie Keeler. And I hope you understand that we all enjoyed mocking you only because you were wrong. If Papelboner had been able to get those last three outs, your magnificently quotable turn of phrase would be but a footnote to BTF history.

So as a service to you and Baldrick, here are four optional quotes about the 2014 Yankees that you can use on me for the rest of my life if they should pull a 2011 Red Sox in reverse. I'll be thrilled if you should ever have the opportunity to use them all.

1. "The Yanks is dead"

2. "The Yankees will make the postseason just before the Democrats recapture the House."

3. "The Yankees are about as alive as Elvis."

4. "The Yankees will make the postseason when Joey B learns how to wash his diapers without spitting on them."


Just don't say I don't go out of my way to be accommodating.
   99. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:23 PM (#4785097)
It's been a long time coming, but I'm just going to go ahead and use that nice ignore function. Cheers.

So I guess I'll have to contact you through Doris in Rego Park, or maybe through messages written on The Captain's sneakers.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The. 2014. Yankees. ARE. cooked.

And there it is: the "It's. Over. It's always been over." of the 2014 season. Regardless of what the Yankees do from here on out, I trust you will never again try to claim my logic was flawed for saying that.


Ray, I never once said that your "logic" was flawed. You really don't get this, do you?

All that entire episode ever represented was a perfect storm of getting a chance to mock Red Sox fans, while at the same time being able to mock you for your wonderful way of expressing yourself. It was a mocking based on love, though not of any love for the Red Sox.

   100. Howie Menckel Posted: September 03, 2014 at 11:23 PM (#4785098)

"With the pitch that this is your last chance to see Derek Jeter, you can get 40,000 people into the park."

I'd have to see the turnstile count on that on most Sept. games.


"Look, the Yankees' prospects for season ticket renewals in 2015 are already bleak enough as it is, unless you think that Yankee fans are excited about the return of A-Rod."

multiple WFAN hosts keep claiming that A-Rod will be back specifically because "he sells tickets."

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