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Thursday, August 04, 2011

The Messiah is coming

Brett Lawrie has been called up by the Jays.

Travis Snider is headed back to Las Vegas.

Carlos Villanueva is headed to the DL.

Luis Perez is recalled but will pitch out of the bullpen.

Paul D(uda) Posted: August 04, 2011 at 09:26 PM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, minor leagues

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Eric P. Posted: August 05, 2011 at 04:11 AM (#3893211)
Submitted this one, too. Much excitement brewing in Canada for the Great Maple Hope.

Hard to imagine Snider will still be here next year. Another abrupt, failed stint at the big league level. Horrible, horrible plate discipline this time around (33 K's, 1 BB in 24 games).
   2. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: August 05, 2011 at 04:20 AM (#3893213)
Saw the headline on the sidebar and thought "what the ####, I sat through the entire Yankee post-game and there was nothing about Jesus being called up."
   3. PepTech Posted: August 05, 2011 at 04:21 AM (#3893214)
Hmmph. Here I assumed it was Strasburg.
   4. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: August 05, 2011 at 04:27 AM (#3893215)
False prophet! Smite him!
   5. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: August 05, 2011 at 04:28 AM (#3893216)
Saw the headline on the sidebar and thought "what the ####, I sat through the entire Yankee post-game and there was nothing about Jesus being called up."


Same.
   6. The District Attorney Posted: August 05, 2011 at 05:04 AM (#3893221)
2B Johnny Giovatella was also called up, for KC... and when the alternative is Chris Getz, anyone looks like a messiah.
   7. Obo Posted: August 05, 2011 at 05:24 AM (#3893225)
Too bad about Snider, I thought he was going to be a good one. Maybe a change of organization would be best for him at this point.
   8. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: August 05, 2011 at 05:34 AM (#3893226)
Too bad about Snider, I thought he was going to be a good one. Maybe a change of organization would be best for him at this point.


This seems like a good point for Beane to bring him in and have the A's coaching and medical staff put the final touches on the death of his career.
   9. Ryan Lind Posted: August 05, 2011 at 05:50 AM (#3893229)
Huh, this came kinda fast for Snider didn't it? Last time I was paying attention he was killing the ball. Hit like 10 doubles his first 15 games back or something. That's really disappointing.
   10. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: August 05, 2011 at 07:24 AM (#3893238)
He's still only 23.
   11. cabintwelve Posted: August 05, 2011 at 10:09 AM (#3893244)
So what are people expecting from Lawrie?

I've heard a lot of "he's going to hit a ton in the big leagues" OR "he's only putting up those numbers because he's in the PCL." But not much in between.

Would love to hear some of the prospect hounds opinions.
   12. zack Posted: August 05, 2011 at 01:57 PM (#3893296)
Who loves you, and who do you love?
   13. The_Ex Posted: August 05, 2011 at 02:35 PM (#3893325)
Lawrie is a Canadian being called up by Canada's team. The hype and expectations on him are enormous. The media have been asking John Farrell daily, for the last three months, for a Lawrie update.

Lawrie seems to have a F-you personality which in this case might bode well for him, a player with a less forceful personality could get overwhelmed.
   14. Matthew E Posted: August 05, 2011 at 02:53 PM (#3893341)
Way too early to give up on Snider, and I have to believe that the Jays are of my way of thinking. If he was in another organization, Anthopoulos would be trying to trade for him; as it is, all he has to do to acquire him is to not trade him.

Lawrie's numbers in Vegas are league- and park-inflated, but even if you let the air out of them he still had a great season there. I'm willing to believe he's ready for the major leagues, and it wouldn't surprise me if he became an instant star. (It also wouldn't surprise me if he fell flat on his face. Or anything in between.) Looking forward to tonight's game!
   15. Hit by Pitch Posted: August 05, 2011 at 03:06 PM (#3893350)
Snider is just 23! Look at his b-ref similar batters through age 22:

Ruppert Jones (976)
Pete Incaviglia (971)
Steve Kemp (971)
Willie Horton (968)
Willie Mays (967) *
Dave Winfield (963) *
Jeff Burroughs (963)
Harold Baines (960)
Ron Fairly (956)
Max West (956)


On average those players went on to play an additional 14 years posting an OPS+ of 126. Also those similarity scores are pretty high.
   16. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: August 05, 2011 at 03:37 PM (#3893379)
98
113
111
123

Those are the OPS+ of the first four guys on your list through their age-23 seasons. Put another way, b-ref similar batters is just about useless given the changes in offensive environment.
   17. Hit by Pitch Posted: August 05, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#3893483)
b-ref similar batters is just about useless given the changes in offensive environment.


Isn't the logic behind normalizing OPS to adjust for changes in offensive environment?
   18. Rants Mulliniks Posted: August 05, 2011 at 07:06 PM (#3893513)
Snider has been exceedingly disappointing this year with the bat. His power is completely gone (only 5 homers in almost 400 ABs between Toronto and Vegas).
   19. vortex of dissipation Posted: August 05, 2011 at 07:22 PM (#3893532)
So what are people expecting from Lawrie?


That he'll never be half the player his sister is?
   20. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: August 05, 2011 at 07:34 PM (#3893537)
Or half the man.
   21. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: August 05, 2011 at 07:49 PM (#3893555)
Isn't the logic behind normalizing OPS to adjust for changes in offensive environment?

Sure, but IIRC, sim scores are based off of raw totals.
   22. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: August 05, 2011 at 07:59 PM (#3893561)

This seems like a good point for Beane to bring him in and have the A's coaching and medical staff put the final touches on the death of his career.


No no no, we'll mess with him and then trade him. Then he'll be good.
   23. Gamingboy Posted: August 05, 2011 at 08:11 PM (#3893564)
Given the previous record of AL East Messiahs (non-Yankee/Red Sox category), expect Lawrie to be a all-star in 2013 at the earliest.
   24. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: August 05, 2011 at 08:41 PM (#3893581)
I hope Lawrie's good. He's replacing Michael Brantley on my fantasy team. Not that it's going to make a difference this year with my team buried in the standings but maybe as a keeper for next year.
   25. Greg K Posted: August 05, 2011 at 08:42 PM (#3893582)
Huh, this came kinda fast for Snider didn't it? Last time I was paying attention he was killing the ball. Hit like 10 doubles his first 15 games back or something. That's really disappointing.

You haven't been paying attention in a while then.
.218/.222/.321 in the past 28 days (with 28Ks and 1 walk!)
.167/.167/.194 in the past 14

It's seemed like he's been getting nothing but curve balls for a month, and so far hasn't come to close to hitting a single one of them.
   26. Ryan Lind Posted: August 05, 2011 at 09:37 PM (#3893619)
That's one way to look at it.

He hit .357/.356/.625 his first 13 games after his most recent call-up. He's hit .172/.169/.259 in 11 games since.

He had raised his BA from .184 up to .252 before the last 2 weeks has plummeted it back down.

I stand by what I said.
   27. Greg K Posted: August 05, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3893626)
Oh I agree, I didn't mean to come off too advesarially. It was a delight to see him come back and immediately smack the ball around. (He hit 11 of his 17 extra-base hits for the year in that 11 game span). The heroic effort required to have his BA higher than his OBP wasn't a great sign, but really who's going to complain about that?

Snider still has a lot of promise, the Jays really seem at a loss in terms of what to do with him this year. My inclination would be to just let him figure things out at the major league level. He's going to have to do that eventually, and 2011 is the perfect year (contending time table wise) to see if he can. He has looked so SO bad in the past two weeks though. To be fair though, this is mostly an accident of timing. I was following the Jays through box scores mostly for his hot steak, and have been watching more games in the past couple weeks.

I guess the most important thing is getting Snider to bat every day. With Lawrie coming up and Encarnacion being hot they must figure AAA is the best place for him to do that. I'd have thought about maybe sending Thames down instead.

EDIT: Speaking of selective end points, Edwin Encarnacion since July 7 is hitting .349/.432/.566 and is 3/3 stealing!
   28. NTNgod Posted: August 06, 2011 at 01:01 AM (#3893871)
So far tonight for Lawrie - first hit, first RBI... and first error. Yup, he was a Brewers draftee, alright :P
   29. RobertMachemer Posted: August 06, 2011 at 01:58 AM (#3893997)
So far tonight for Lawrie - first hit, first RBI... and first error.


He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy.
   30. Dan Posted: August 06, 2011 at 02:50 AM (#3894068)
Since this is a Jays thread, and I was looking at his stats tonight, I'll leave this here: AA is a good GM, but he really ###### up by trading Napoli for Francisco. Napoli is hitting .299/.394/.626 while Francisco has been mediocre.
   31. Matthew E Posted: August 06, 2011 at 03:32 AM (#3894078)
Yeah, but Napoli would have been scrambling for playing time if he had stayed in Toronto. They've got Lind at first, Encarnacion at DH, and Arencibia behind the plate. I would have liked to have kept him, too, but I can't fault Anthopoulos for thinking he needed the reliever more.
   32. The District Attorney Posted: August 06, 2011 at 04:30 AM (#3894088)
Napoli is better than Encarnacion.
   33. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: August 06, 2011 at 05:11 AM (#3894096)
Snider's breakout will be in 2012. This is because I have drafted him each of the last three seasons, and have no intention of doing so next year.
   34. Greg K Posted: August 06, 2011 at 08:36 AM (#3894123)
Well Lawrie certainly came as advertised, he acts like he belongs in a major league batters box. He looks like a perpetual ball of energy, although it seems like it might be an adventure at 3B. He showed some nice range, but had one error, couldn't handle a tough one that I think was scored a hit and threw a low one to Hill on a potential DP.

On the other front I thought Rasmus had a good game. That was the best bent I've seen in a while, and he even managed to do enough to break up a double play at 2B (take that Andy Van Slyke!). Has there been any word on why he was taken out in the 8th? Was he hurt on that slide into home?
   35. Greg K Posted: August 06, 2011 at 08:41 AM (#3894124)
Since this is a Jays thread, and I was looking at his stats tonight, I'll leave this here: AA is a good GM, but he really ###### up by trading Napoli for Francisco. Napoli is hitting .299/.394/.626 while Francisco has been mediocre.

I thought it was a bit of a dud trade at the time. I can understand why he'd flip Napoli, Toronto isn't the best fit for him, but I thought he could have gotten a better player than a decentish reliever for one year in Francisco (who as it turned out is having a less than decentish season).

Maybe every GM in the league and not just Scoscia was undervaluing Napoli?

As you say, along with the two year John McDonald extension, the Napoli trade makes up the headscratchers AA has made. Of course when those are the worst crimes a GM has committed, he's doing a good job.
   36. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 06, 2011 at 09:50 AM (#3894131)
Given the generally blah nature of DHs in MLB it defies explanation that a guy with a career slugging percentage of .500 and who hits 37 homers per 600 at bats cannot find a regular place in a team's lineup

As for catching, Mike Napoli may not be Del Crandall behind the plate but nor is he Mike Stanley.
   37. Random Transaction Generator Posted: August 06, 2011 at 01:26 PM (#3894167)
On the other front I thought Rasmus had a good game. That was the best bent I've seen in a while, and he even managed to do enough to break up a double play at 2B (take that Andy Van Slyke!). Has there been any word on why he was taken out in the 8th? Was he hurt on that slide into home?

The replays looked like his hand got stepped on when he took 2nd base on the pop fly.
It was probably precautionary.
   38. Greg K Posted: August 06, 2011 at 01:40 PM (#3894179)
Whoops, just caught that. Best BUNT I've seen in a while.

I see better Bents every day.

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