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Monday, January 22, 2018

The Mets Have Been Operating As A Small-Market Club For Almost A Decade

What the Mets have been doing to their fans, to baseball, and to the city of New York for the last ten years is nothing short of shameful. The evidence is right there — in public — for everyone to see. It requires no mudslinging, and no speculation.

goodfundies Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:23 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, wilpons

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   1. . . . . . . Posted: January 22, 2018 at 08:21 PM (#5611372)
self post? for shame.
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 10:26 PM (#5611448)
Seriously....how ####### stupid do you have to be to believe this comment.
A payroll that has ranked in the bottom-half of the league five years in a row.


2017...
Tm    EstPayroll
LAD      201466263
SFG      177399833
CHC      177210667
NYM      176615252
WSN      175587301
STL      129652933
ATL      119705250
MIA      111591100
COL      106650000
ARI      106580200
PIT      102953333
PHI       86841000
CIN       79315786
MIL       68439300
SDP       49248767 


I'm seeing the Mets in the top third in 2017...


Team payroll 2016
Tm    EstPayroll
LAD      231342096
SFG      177021333
CHC      176097333
NYM      155221282
WSN      152967400
STL      150353500
COL       89707000
PHI       84846666
PIT       81187933
ARI       78399500
CIN       77329561
ATL       74999750
MIA       72472000
MIL       52077500
SDP       50656166 

It's again looking like they are in the top third in payroll in 2016.

2015 they were actually in the bottom half.... so sure they were in the bottom half 3 seasons ago.... But heck when Mets fans/Republicans write, facts don't need to be involved.
   3. thetailor (Brian) Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:14 AM (#5611492)
What are you talking about Cardsfanboy? Where are you getting those cockamamie numbers? The Mets payroll ended up $154 million in 2017, 14th in MLB, which includes all of David Wright's $20 million, of which the Mets paid about $7 million. Actual payroll is closer to $141 million, which would be 18th in MLB. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2017/

As for where they were on Opening Day last year, the $155 million figure (which they got to by accident when Neil Walker unexpectedly accepted his qualifying offer) was just 12th in MLB. https://nypost.com/2017/12/21/inside-the-mets-20-million-payroll-cut-and-whats-next/ If you want a different source, Steve the Ump confirms the figure: http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm After taking away Wright, their Opening Day payroll was 14th.

The year end ranks are from Cot's Contracts, which has the Mets 15th last year and 15th the year before. http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/new-york-mets/

So be careful who you're calling a Republican...





   4. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 23, 2018 at 07:49 AM (#5611520)
Not sure exactly what #3 is objecting too, other than whether "the league" should be taken to mean MLB or the NL. 15th is in fact the top half of 30, not the bottom half. And every other team's payroll includes the dead weight, so why should we exclude Wright and Walker from the Mets'?
   5. thetailor (Brian) Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5611603)
Not sure exactly what #3 is objecting too

I'm just providing actual information and links for the payroll questions raised by #2. I am still not sure where #2 got those figures.

15th is in fact the top half of 30, not the bottom half

This is an awfully fine nit to pick, but if you'd like to have the article edited to say "15th or worse in baseball five straight years, and 18th if you consider insurance money that they knew they'd receive, and in the bottom half three times" then ok.

And every other team's payroll includes the dead weight, so why should we exclude Wright and Walker from the Mets?A

Nobody is asking to exclude Walker. As for Wright, he's a special kind of dead weight. He's a big ticket item and everyone knows he's not going to play.
   6. Private Godfrey Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:38 AM (#5611617)
whether "the league" should be taken to mean MLB or the NL

Those g----m Budshoviks and their obfuscations of eternal verities!
   7. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5611624)
He's a big ticket item and everyone knows he's not going to play.


They're still paying him.

Looks like cfb's numbers come from BBRef which shows the Mets 8th in 2017 in MLB salary.
   8. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:48 AM (#5611629)
2017 - 8th
2016 - 9th
2015 - 22nd
2014 - 23rd
2013 - 25th
2012 - 15th
2011 - 4th
2010 - 5th
2009 - 2nd
2008 - 3rd

That's their positioning (per BBRef) in salary over the last decade. There is a dip in the middle there but that doesn't look like anything close to a small market team to me. To address the specific comment quoted above they only have 3 seasons in the last ten in the bottom half.
   9. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5611632)
And one more note. If you want to find another season when they were in the bottom half of payroll you have to keep going back to 1997.
   10. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:58 AM (#5611641)
Wright's salary has been partially (maybe mostly) covered by insurance the last few years, so it definitely shouldn't wholly count in terms of what the Mets are willing to spend.
   11. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:06 AM (#5611647)
What were the Mets insurance premiums on Wright and other players?

Most people act like insurance is just money falling from the sky, but there is a huge premium cost to teams.

If you are going to include the amounts they receive, then you need to include premiums paid when comparing to other teams.

   12. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5611649)
That's their positioning (per BBRef) in salary over the last decade. There is a dip in the middle there but that doesn't look like anything close to a small market team to me. To address the specific comment quoted above they only have 3 seasons in the last ten in the bottom half.


I think it's probably accurate to say the Meta have been operating like a mid-market team for most of the past decade, but New Yorkers have historically had difficulty gauging size differences below them.
   13. Nasty Nate Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5611674)
Most people act like insurance is just money falling from the sky...
It's just a write off for them. They just write it off. Jerry, all these big companies they write off everything
   14. thetailor (Brian) Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5611717)
There is a dip in the middle there but that doesn't look like anything close to a small market team to me.

The Mets took a few years to sell off after Madoff broke in December 2008.

That's their positioning (per BBRef) in salary over the last decade.

I can't find it on the site, but those numbers are wrong. Every other source (spotrac, Steve the Ump, media reports) had the Mets starting last year at $155M and ending far below that.
   15. Conor Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:23 PM (#5611723)
the Mets ended up dumping a lot of salary last year in the middle of the year, they traded

1) Walker- saved about $5.5 million
2) Duda- $2.5 million
3) Bruce- $2.5 million
4) Granderson- $3.5 million
5) Reed- about $2.75 million

Plus Wright, I believe insurance picks up about 75% of his salary, which was about $15 million, so all in (they may have picked up a small amount of money in one of the trades) their opening day payroll overstates what they actually paid out by around $30 million.

The premium on the Wright insurance is a good point and one I never thought of before.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5611725)
The premium on the Wright insurance is a good point and one I never thought of before.

Depending on the structure of the contract, they may or may not still be paying. Some insurance policies waive the premium once you are on claim.
   17. Lassus Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:29 PM (#5611727)
That's their positioning (per BBRef) in salary over the last decade.
I can't find it on the site, but those numbers are wrong.


Oh lord, someone stop him, he's going to get the Great Forman to rain down fire on us all.
   18. Conor Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5611730)
Depending on the structure of the contract, they may or may not still be paying. Some insurance policies waive the premium once you are on claim.


Sure, but it would probably be fair to add a little to the payroll # for the previous years, depending on how significant the premium was.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5611733)
Sure, but it would probably be fair to add a little to the payroll # for the previous years, depending on how significant the premium was.

Yup.
   20. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5611758)
The Mets took a few years to sell off after Madoff broke in December 2008.


Forgot about that.

I can't find it on the site, but those numbers are wrong. Every other source (spotrac, Steve the Ump, media reports) had the Mets starting last year at $155M and ending far below that.


This intrigues me. All these sites have differences and I'd be interested to know where they come from and what makes you confident that those other sites are correct and BBRef is not. I'm not disagreeing, I just want to know why this is the case.
   21. Lassus Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5611791)
I always thought COTS was the go-to.
   22. thetailor (Brian) Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5611828)
I always thought COTS was the go-to.

Yep. And Cot's concurs.

Meanwhile, Jeff Wilpon is throwing gasoline on the fire as we speak.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5611978)
b-r salary numbers have always been a bit wonky. Upon a time, although the "headline" number on total years/$ was correct, the annual salary numbers seemed to miss signing bonuses -- looks like that's cleared up now. But based on a couple of examples, what they do now seems to be to talking the signing bonus, spread it evenly across the life of the contract, add that to a specific year's salary, ignore any salary deferments. That would seem to mean their payroll numbers are neither the numbers used for lux tax calculations nor the actual amounts a team pays out.

What they seem to have done is reasonable given the limits of the level of detail they want to provide but it does mean they will disagree with other sources. For something as complicated as the Scherzer contract, their portrayal of its structure ends up being wrong in many ways.

On the Mets, insurance, etc. the point is that if you're going to adjust the Mets' payroll spending for insurance money received, guys traded mid-season, etc. then you need to do this for every team before you make the comparison. That's fine if you've got the info and want to do the legwork. Most of us are too lazy and using opening day payroll is a lot easier. It is also likely more reflective of what a team's intentions were -- the Mets were willing to spend $X in hopes of a winning season; when that season didn't materialize, they sensibly traded off pending FAs to save money and acquire a smidgen of talent.

While any sensible front office of course realizes that trading off that payroll is a fall-back position -- i.e. telling owners to spend $150 M to win but, if it doesn't work, you can at least probably cut that back to $135 through trades; if it does work, they might have to fork over another $5-10 M to add talent at the deadline -- this is the Mets we're talking about so the assumption of sensibility is not a given.

Nevertheless, opening day payroll is likely a better indicator of a team's intentions than adjusted payroll, possibly with the caveat of a rebuilding team like the White Sox who I think knew they weren't going to compete but held onto "pricey" players because they didn't get an offer they liked during the offseason so hoped they'd get a better offer mid-season. Still, it's not clear whether they would have traded Quintana last year even without a good talent return -- I suspect not.
   24. J in the Slope Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:12 PM (#5612178)
I don't see how anything in this article is particularly controversial. I've long thought that the Wilpons aren't cheap -- they're broke (relatively). They always spent like they had the second biggest market share in baseball (after the Yankees) and the biggest in baseball. Until the Madoff stuff happened. The Mets should rightly be in the SPEND, SPEND part of their success cycle, but they aren't.

Team spending since the Wilpons became sole owners (via Stevetheump):
2003 2nd (1st in NL)
2004 4th (1st in NL)
2005 3rd (1st in NL)
2006 5th (1st in NL) - Won NL East
2007 3rd (1st in NL)
2008 2nd (1st in NL)
2009 2nd (1st in NL)
BERNIE MADOFF
2010 5th (3rd in NL)
2011 7th (3rd in NL)
Wilpons settle Madoff claims
2012 14th (7th in NL)
2013 23rd (10th in NL)
2014 22nd (11th in NL)
2015 21st (10th in NL) - Won NL Pennant (time to SPEND!)
2016 19th (9th in NL) - Payroll goes down. Won WC (Spend!)
2017 12th (6th in NL) - less $10m to $15m for David Wright, less deadline salary dumps

For fans it is the stark difference pre-Madoff and post-Madoff. The Mets were the mini-Yanks (and BoSox) in terms of payroll and almost always led their league in spending. As well they should have (or been close). They're in the biggest market in the NL (35-40% of the NYC area) and never bottom out in attendance. There has pretty clearly been a change in spending since the Madoff scandal happened.
   25. thetailor (Brian) Posted: January 24, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5612489)
Thanks, J.
   26. formerly dp Posted: January 24, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5612544)
It looks like they're still in on Frazier...not sure how I feel about that, with Bruce and Gonzalez now on the roster, and Rivera and Flores on hand for 3B/2B. For his career, Frazier hits RHP decently well (.244/.320/.441, but he was pretty bad in 2017), and crushes LHP (.250/.322/.513). But unless the Mets just don't trust his defense at 3B, Flores should be the guy at 3B against LHP--.274/.318/.520 for his career. Flores wasn't terrible against RHP in 2017 (.262/.306/.459), but it's the first time he's shown anything like that level of ability, and while it's not out of the realm of possibility that he took a step forward at 2015, not sure they should bank on it. Projections have Frazier with a very slight edge on Flores. Rivera's an interesting case, 29 this year and coming off 2 years of sustained MLB success, albeit in part-time/injury shortened seasons.

Haven't heard much Reyes chatter, but at this point it seems like they'd add one of Frazier or Reyes, but not both...and given the likely salary difference/positional flexibility, Reyes *might* be the better fit. I dunno...they def need to add another infielder, no confidence in a Flores/Cabrera/Rivera rotation between 2b/3b, esp if Flores is sliding over to 1B to spell A-Gon or Smith against RHP.
   27. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5612586)
I always thought COTS was the go-to.

Spotrac appears to be in near real time and is very easily sortable, breaks money out into the active 25 man, 40 man, dead weight, etc. It's really useful.
   28. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:53 PM (#5612966)
Dumb article and worse comments.
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:17 AM (#5613071)
It looks like they're still in on Frazier...not sure how I feel about that, with Bruce and Gonzalez now on the roster, and Rivera and Flores on hand for 3B/2B. For his career, Frazier hits RHP decently well (.244/.320/.441, but he was pretty bad in 2017), and crushes LHP (.250/.322/.513). But unless the Mets just don't trust his defense at 3B, Flores should be the guy at 3B against LHP--.274/.318/.520 for his career. Flores wasn't terrible against RHP in 2017 (.262/.306/.459), but it's the first time he's shown anything like that level of ability, and while it's not out of the realm of possibility that he took a step forward at 2015, not sure they should bank on it. Projections have Frazier with a very slight edge on Flores. Rivera's an interesting case, 29 this year and coming off 2 years of sustained MLB success, albeit in part-time/injury shortened seasons.

I think Frazier's a great fit for the Mets. If Flores hits, Asdrubel Cabrera sit, what's the big deal?

If Flores can't outplay Cabrera, then his PT isn't something you worry about.

Also, I'm not seeing this "slight edge" you talk about. Zips has Frazier at 3.5 WAR, Flores at 1.6, and A Cabrera at 1.2. It's only Steamer where the edge is small.

   30. McCoy Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:18 AM (#5613173)
Cot's and BRef will take bonuses and spread the cost out to all the seasons. So if a player has a 10 million dollar bonus on his 5 year contract Cot's will add 2 million dollars to each yearly salary regardless of the payout actually happening once in 2018 and once in 2020.

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