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Thursday, December 14, 2006

The Official Matsuzaka Prediction Thread

Here we go. Winner recieves an 8x10 Pete Rose print.

Wins / Losses / Innings Pitched / ERA / Strikeouts / Walks

Get at it.

Johnny Two Screens Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:50 PM | 144 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: japan, projections, red sox

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1. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:09 PM (#2261156)

16/9/195/3.25/200/50

2. Nate Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2261158)

19-8, 227 Innings Pitched, 3.31 ERA, 191 Strikeouts, 49 Walks.

3. bunyon Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2261159)

14 / 6 / 173 / 4.01 / 142 / 44

4. Johnny Two Screens Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:13 PM (#2261161)

17-9 /201 / 4.25 / 180 / 51

5. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:14 PM (#2261163)

15/5/210/3.90/195/65

6. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:14 PM (#2261164)

18-7, 3.75, 200, 160/50

7. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:14 PM (#2261165)

22-5/ 231 innings/ 2.89 era/ 188 K's /42 walks

8. plim Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:15 PM (#2261167)

18 / 7 / 214.2 / 3.64 / 220 / 55

9. Cabbage Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:20 PM (#2261171)

13/6/195/3.55/185/60

4 CHB hints that he lacks the heart and desire to truly compete on the biggest stage in the world, following a rough patch in late July.

10. sasquatch83 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#2261176)

18 / 8 / 208 / 3.73 / 198 / 48

11. pv nasby Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:25 PM (#2261179)

15-10 215 3.90 200 80

12. Toby Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#2261182)

14/8/196/3.32/176/66

13. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:29 PM (#2261187)

14/11/187.3/4.30/150/45

14. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:32 PM (#2261189)

14/8/200/3.70/180/55

15. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:34 PM (#2261193)

13/8/206/4.32/167/74

16. Sean McNally Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#2261196)

I didn't click the link, but I can already tell you I hate that picture.

Wins / Losses / Innings Pitched / ERA / Strikeouts / Walks

14-9 195.3 4.30 175/80

17. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:36 PM (#2261197)

8/4/105/4.11/93/46

18. TomH Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:37 PM (#2261198)

11/8/165/3.95/150/65 Hey guys, injuries happen. As will a few blown leads in late innings, costing him a win or three.

19. pounceanalogica Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:37 PM (#2261199)

19-8 212innings, 3.46ERA, 178k 67BB.

20. CFiJ Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:39 PM (#2261200)

18 / 10 / 191 / 3.24 / 180 / 47

ROY, finishes 3rd in Cy Young voting.

21. Best Regards, L.M. Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:39 PM (#2261202)

0/0/3/0.00/9/0

22. Sam M. Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2261206)

16-6/200.3/3.42/195/81

23. The Artist Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2261208)

16-9, 204 IP, 3.77ERA, 183K, 61BB

24. Raskolnikov Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2261209)

15-9/195IP/3.16/230K/52BB (More Ks than most here have predicted.)

25. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2261210)

22-5/ 231 innings/ 2.89 era/ 188 K's /42 walks

Is that the official CFBPS line?

26. Kyle S Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:44 PM (#2261212)

14 / 10 / 185 / 4.20 / 155 / 60

27. PJ Martinez Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:44 PM (#2261213)

18-7/204.1/3.87/178/51

28. Craig in MN Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:50 PM (#2261219)

5 / 3 / 72.2 / 4.12 / 61 / 22

29. HowardMegdal

Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:50 PM (#2261220)

14-9/179IP/4.12/166K/57BB

30. winnipegwhip Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:51 PM (#2261221)

29-4/256.2/2.23/201/32

He throws a wild pitch to lose 1-0 in game 162 (and a postseason berth) and all of New England blame Red Sox management for such a stupid signing.

31. Frisco Cali Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:52 PM (#2261222)

21-4/246/2.78/236/62
Cy Rookie of the Young Award

32. Jonny German Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2261225)

10 / 5 / 160 / 4.45 / 110 / 65

33. Sam M. Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2261226)

I would be awfully curious to peek in on the alternate universe in which the Yankees got Matsuzaka and see the alternate Larry Mahnken's prediction for his first-year performance ... ;-)

34. hpt150 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:55 PM (#2261230)

17W 8L 197IP 3.67ERA 174K 54BB

It's going to be interested to see the bidding war for free agent-to be Koji Uehara 12 to 14 months from now. Older than Matsuzaka by 6 or 7 years I think, and not quite the same caliber stuff, but a fine hurler in his own right. Uehara's control is nothing short of amazing.

35. Best Regards, L.M. Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:56 PM (#2261232)

I would be awfully curious to peek in on the alternate universe in which the Yankees got Matsuzaka and see the alternate Larry Mahnken's prediction for his first-year performance ... ;-)

It's going to take me a couple of innings to set the sight on the rifle, thus the 3-inning prediction.

If he was on the Yankees:

5/15/140/5.20/130/100

36. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:08 PM (#2261247)

17-9, 211.2IP, 3.91, 190K, 58BB

37. Dave Cyprian Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:08 PM (#2261248)

15-8 / 166 / 3.86 / 132 / 44

38. realteamcoach Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:09 PM (#2261249)

16-9 204 IP 4.09 ERA 148/59

39. bibigon Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:12 PM (#2261250)

15-8/200/4.00/195/60

Considered a failure.

40. PleasePassTheGravy Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:19 PM (#2261261)

0/1/3/15.00/2/4

Gives up 5 runs over 3 innings against Kansas City. Strikes out Angel Berroa twice before leaving game. Doesn't pitch again in '07...

41. Tim M Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:32 PM (#2261276)

9-7, 4.40, 135 IP, 103/41, misses time w/ arm problems.

I don't actually think that will happen, and I REALLY hope not, but I am taking the "under" trying to win that splendid Rose pic.

42. CFiJ Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:33 PM (#2261279)

Older than Matsuzaka by 6 or 7 years I think, and not quite the same caliber stuff, but a fine hurler in his own right. Uehara's control is nothing short of amazing.

Five years (although his birthday is in April, and Matsuzaka's is in September). He's quality. U.S. baseball fans may have seem him shut down Team Korea in the WBC.

43. tfbg9 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:40 PM (#2261291)

20-9/210.1/3.60/187/65 Breaks The Jete's right hand, his bodyguard wave-over hand.

44. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:41 PM (#2261294)

16-11, 5.01 ERA, 204.6 IP, 158/74 K/BB, 36 HR.

called a "bilious frog" by John Henry late in the season when his 3 IP, 11 ER, 4 HR performance against the yankees eliminate the sox from the wild card chase.

45. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:42 PM (#2261295)

Oh, and my prediction includes the Cy Young award.

46. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:42 PM (#2261297)

And the ROY.

47. winnipegwhip Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:49 PM (#2261311)

29-4/256.2/2.23/201/32

Finds cures for cancer and Aids, finds Osama Bin Laden, conclusively solves who killed JFK and stops Global Warming. Oh yes convinces Yankee and Red Sox fans to form a chain between Fenway and Yankee Stadium to sing koombaya and demand world peace.

48. Kiko Sakata

Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#2261313)

10-12 168 IP 4.45 ERA 155/92 K/BB

49. bunyon Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:55 PM (#2261322)

It's going to take me a couple of innings to set the sight on the rifle, thus the 3-inning prediction.

If he was on the Yankees:

5/15/140/5.20/130/100

What, Larry, you winged him in the alternate universe?

50. dr. scott Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:31 PM (#2261354)

1 dollar! Wait, I think you have to bid last for that to work...

still Im going with

6-4/80/4.6/35/29

ww, I was all happy till I saw the ida of a bunch of yankee and sox fans holding hands and being happy... that just cant be a good thing.

51. Latnam's first name is Bob Lemon's middle name Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:41 PM (#2261373)

W 17/ L 8/ IP 185.6/ ERA 3.54/ K 187/ BB 76

52. Andere Richtingen

Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:51 PM (#2261388)

15/9/201/3.88/188/67

53. RickG Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:57 PM (#2261399)

17-12, 267.0, 3.77, 287/144

That's what he did in the RLPA in 2007...why not replicate it.

54. Pete Rose Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:09 PM (#2261416)

Winner recieves an 8x10 Pete Rose print.

Oh man, I'm in!

7-11, 140 IP, 4.63 ERA, 90 K, 150 BB

Anybody want to start some kind of side bet?

Come on, side bet!

55. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:17 PM (#2261425)

41-12, 454.7 IP, 1.82 ERA, 239 K, 88 BB, 4 HR allowed, 51 starts

He's this generation's Jack Chesbro. Book it!

56. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:26 PM (#2261443)

15-9, 178, 4.1 ERA, 201 K, 50BB.

57. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:28 PM (#2261447)

18/8/212/3.88/202/44

And someone better remind us about this prediction thread at the end of the season. I never remember to come back to these things and look at how I did...

58. Free Rob Base Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:36 PM (#2261456)

20/7/215/3.15/200/40

59. Steve Threadair Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:46 PM (#2261460)

5/11/111/5.11/51/11

60. Obo Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:57 PM (#2261467)

Larry stole my thunder, but I'm still going with

0/0/0/-/0/0

61. Best Regards, L.M. Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:04 PM (#2261477)

What, Larry, you winged him in the alternate universe?

In the alternate universe, he pitches for my team, and therefore sucks.

62. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:09 PM (#2261480)

13 9 173? 4.14 159 68

63. Шĥy Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:13 PM (#2261485)

11/7/142/4.38/121/49

64. AJM Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#2261486)

16/8/207/3.89/192/52

65. S. Ransom Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:22 PM (#2261491)

8/14/175/5.03/112/75

"Bilous frog" it is. He'll likely do better than this of course, but a few more people have got to bring the thread averages down for common sense's sake.

66. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:31 PM (#2261503)

In my universe, he is injured by Jorge Cantu during a bench-clearing brawl in a game against Tampa Bay on July 5.

67. kthejoker Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2261521)

Throwing out Larry, Obo, Rod Bradeln, Gonfalon, and PleasePassTheGravy's "guesses", the average consensus is:

15.6 - 7.8, 194.3 IP, 3.78 ERA, 175 K, 59 BB

Throwing out everybody who predicted 105 innings or less (not that they're bad predictions):

16.3 - 8, 202.3 IP, 3.75, 183 K, 61 BB

I dunno, sounds a little optimistic.

68. DCA Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:39 PM (#2261569)

13-10 198.0 4.50 220 96

69. Guapo Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:51 PM (#2261577)

13-8 178 3.79 141 53

70. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:58 PM (#2261584)

Throwing out Larry, Obo, Rod Bradeln, Gonfalon, and PleasePassTheGravy's "guesses", the average consensus is...

Okay, fine, round down my IP estimate to an even 454.

71. Srul Itza Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:09 PM (#2261595)

17-8 190 2.90 192 70

72. baudib Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:16 PM (#2261604)

17-9 210 3.60 185 65

He will start the All-Star Game.

73. Buzzards Bay Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:29 PM (#2261621)

14-8 182 3.54 166 66

74. Matt Waters Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#2261642)

11-4/110/3.87/72/38

Starts off fantastic, misses some time with an injury, tails off slightly at the end of the season. Huge year [Cy Young?] expected in 2008.

75. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2261646)

Wins / Losses / Innings Pitched / ERA / Strikeouts / Walks

12-12 185.2 4.65 170 60

76. Steve Threadair Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:49 PM (#2261652)

Starts off fantastic, misses some time with an injury, tails off

and is traded to the New York Yankees for Emil Brown and Angel Berroa.

77. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:01 PM (#2261664)

16/8/194.3/3.78/175/59

78. 3Com Park Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:10 PM (#2261682)

30/4/228.7/2.83/216/61

79. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:21 PM (#2261698)

14/8/188/3.83/167/42
He's good, but not out-of-our minds good.

80. StrangeBrewer5 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:30 PM (#2261710)

18/10/202/3.22/172/30..........
and eats 54 hot dogs in twelve minutes to take the world record from Takeru Kobayashi.

81. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:39 PM (#2261719)

14/12/180/4.30/140/75

82. PhillyBooster Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:43 PM (#2261724)

13/ 9/ 170.3/ 5.50/ 150/ 84

(These is also Jose Contreras's combined 2004 CHI/NY line.)

83. CraigK Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:44 PM (#2261726)

Wins / Losses / Innings Pitched / ERA / Strikeouts / Walks

12-3, 149.1 IP, 1.98 ERA, 133-29 K/BB

84. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2261745)

13/ 9/ 170.3/ 5.50/ 150/ 84

(These is also Jose Contreras's combined 2004 CHI/NY line.)

I neglected to mention that my guess (#36) was Clemens's line from his last season with the Yankees.

Also, could we get a ruling on whether innings should be divided using .1/.2 or .3/.7? I don't know if Strunk & White, Business Writers, the AP, or any universities have weighed in on the subject.

85. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:03 AM (#2261750)

Baseball-reference uses .3/.7, so it's the standard as far as I'm concerned. Plus, it's the form that's mathematically correct. .3 is a third of an inning, and .7 is a rounding-up of two-thirds. No pitcher ever pitched one-tenth of an inning.

86. CrosbyBird Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:09 AM (#2261757)

My collection of abacuses connected with copper wire and monkey semen produced this:

17W/9L/203.3IP/3.98ERA/211K/105BB

87. Willie Mayspedes Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:16 AM (#2261765)

No pitcher ever pitched one-tenth of an inning.

And no pitcher has ever pitched both halves either.

88. Sparkles Peterson Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:19 AM (#2261768)

10W/4L/134.3IP/4.22ERA/110K/63BB

Periods of domination followed by periods of giving up way too many HRs followed by one long period of recovering from Tommy John surgery.

89. Guy Fawkes Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:23 AM (#2261777)

15W / 10L / 180K / 3.65ERA / 140K / 60BB

he's a strikeout pitcher, he's a high ball pitcher, bad combination in the MLB. He's going to give up alot of longballs, but will win plenty thanks to the Red Sox lineup. I can't see him being that unbelievable dominant ace that some say he will be, but I do see him as a pretty good No. 2 after a year or two in the majors.

90. bunyon Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:27 AM (#2261783)

Do folks who follow the Japanese game have any thoughts as to how the strike-zone differs (if it does)? I've read a lot about his being a high ball pitcher. In MLB those aren't strikes. Are thye in Japan? That could really kick his butt.

91. Darren

Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:44 AM (#2261800)

11/11/111.1/1.11/111/11

92. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:50 AM (#2261808)

Where's the Bonds prediction thread from last year? That should be fun....

93. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:52 AM (#2261811)

4 CHB hints that he lacks the heart and desire to truly compete on the biggest stage in the world, following a rough patch in late July.

Wasn't he MVP of the biggest stage in the world last year?

94. Rough Carrigan

Posted: December 15, 2006 at 01:10 AM (#2261822)

18-7/202 IP/3.22 ERA/187 K/47 BB

95. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: December 15, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2261823)

I'll go with the group. I was going to wait until there were a hundred predictions and then take the average, but kthejoker did the work for me ahead of time and says the consensus is:

15.6 - 7.8, 194.3 IP, 3.78 ERA, 175 K, 59 BB

I guess I have to round off, so here's my guess:

16-8/194.3IP/3.78ERA/175K/59BB

96. The Mohole* of David Wells (* - Piehole)

Posted: December 15, 2006 at 01:56 AM (#2261858)

19-4/212 IP/3.07 ERA/205 K/ 55 BB
2nd in Cy Young, Wins ROY

97. number 6 Posted: December 15, 2006 at 02:34 AM (#2261896)

15/9/175/3.59/189/63

98. number 6 Posted: December 15, 2006 at 02:35 AM (#2261897)

15/9/175/3.59/189/63

99. kirkhead Posted: December 15, 2006 at 02:48 AM (#2261910)

16-8/186/3.81/188/68

100. Vin Middle Posted: December 15, 2006 at 03:18 AM (#2261942)

21/5/201.2/3.21/197/52

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