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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

The Perpetual Post: Megdal & Pummer: Unlikely Buyers: Reds or White Sox?

The Inside World of the Central…

Megdal:...The leadoff hitter and center fielder, Willy Taveras, couldn’t be sabotaging the Reds more if he had been paid off by gamblers. He’s hitting .224/.274/.278, and doing it out of the leadoff spot! Alex Gonzalez is having a similar season at shortstop, hitting .214/.256/.302. Fangraphs has both players’ UZR at slightly above average, but not nearly high enough to justify a lineup spot with their putrid production.

Upgrading either or both positions thus would not only help the Reds tremendously, but the production from both players is so poor that a trade-deadline pickup doesn’t need to be a star to dramatically upgrade the positions. Finding a .750 OPS center fielder or shortstop isn’t very difficult, but would represent a 150-200 point pickup for the Reds.

With a young team, the Reds shouldn’t be mortgaging the whole future for 2009. But as good as they already are, they owe it to themselves and their fans to see if they can grab a flag in this mediocre National League that will fly, I am told, forever.

Repoz Posted: June 23, 2009 at 01:40 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: reds, white sox

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1. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: June 23, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3229205)

Taveras was doing fine until the hammy started barking a few weeks ago. Dusty's inabilty to recognize that Taveras is sub-replacement level when not fully healthy has really hurt the lineup. Chris Dickerson may not be a long-term solution (that's hopefully Drew Stubbs) but he's a viable placeholder at CF/leadoff hitter, with high OBPs in limited time this and last year. At SS, they need Gonzalez to start hitting or play Paul Janish, but either way they'll be below average at that position.

2. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: June 23, 2009 at 02:44 PM (#3229216)

Finding a .750 OPS center fielder or shortstop isn’t very difficult

Is that true? A .750 OPS CF or SS with even league average defense is pretty valuable.

3. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: June 23, 2009 at 02:46 PM (#3229223)

Does Chris post here? If so, that's a pretty spot-on analysis about the White Sox. I could see them doing either, depending on what the trade market is looking like. If he can get a good (whatever "good" means in KW's lexicon) haul for someone like Jenks, I could definitely see him pulling the trigger. On the other hand, if an opportunity presents itself like the Peavy deal did -- the Sox seemed to only be giving up Poreda, although Richard has a chance to stick as a back-of-the-rotation type or a good reliever -- I could similarly see the Sox 'going for it.' The fact of the matter is that the division is (again) very winnable and you're not likely to get much in return for the guys who will be gone at the end of the year, so why not take another shot at it?

4. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: June 23, 2009 at 02:49 PM (#3229228)

Finding a .750 OPS center fielder or shortstop isn't difficult? Who out there that fits that description is currently available in trade?

The White Sox should probably stand pat, actually. The pieces are falling into place for 2010 and beyond, and there's really not a clear upgrade candidate that can be had without hurting that future.

5. rfloh Posted: June 23, 2009 at 02:55 PM (#3229239)

Finding a .750 OPS center fielder or shortstop isn’t very difficult

BPro has all MLB SSs posting a 0.265 0.326 0.383 line. CFs, 0.264 0.339 0.417.

At least so far this season, CFs are hitting as well as 3bs. 3bs, 0.266 0.340 0.418

6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 23, 2009 at 03:39 PM (#3229313)

Just throwing it out there, but the Pirates would probably be willing to trade both Nyjer Morgan and Jack Wilson. Nyjer's a career .280/.345/.369 hitter with speed, and he's a good glove for CF. Jack's only got a .685 OPS, but UZR loves the #### out of his defense, which would make up some of the remaining gap.

7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 23, 2009 at 03:42 PM (#3229316)

Why would the Pirates trade Morgan? Isn't he a rookie?

8. Kiko Sakata

Posted: June 23, 2009 at 03:43 PM (#3229318)

Nyjer's a career .280/.345/.369 hitter with speed, and he's a good glove for CF. Jack's only got a .685 OPS

Nyjer's numbers there add up to .714. Morgan and Wilson are fine players and would be decent upgrades for several teams, but doesn't this pretty much just prove the point: CF/SS's w/ .750 OPS's are few, far between, and not available in mid-season trades.

9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 23, 2009 at 03:51 PM (#3229330)

"Why would the Pirates trade Morgan? Isn't he a rookie?"

He's 28, and in his third (partial) season with the club. That, and his glove's kind of wasted in LF, and he's certainly not displacing McCutchen from CF any time soon.

Oh, and the club still needs lots of stuff, so if they can get value for him, it wouldn't be a bad idea.

"Morgan and Wilson are fine players and would be decent upgrades for several teams, but doesn't this pretty much just prove the point: CF/SS's w/ .750 OPS's are few, far between, and not available in mid-season trades."

True, of course. I was just throwing him out there as a potential solution to the need mentioned in the article, even though he's not a .750 guy.

10. vortex of dissipation Posted: June 23, 2009 at 07:37 PM (#3229702)

With the return of Joey Votto, their best hitter in 2009, Edwin Encarnacion, their best hitter in recent years, and Edinson Volquez, their best pitcher last season, the rotation becomes stronger, while a lineup that had been weak becomes considerably deeper.

Encarnacion was transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day last week, so he's not going to return for a while.

11. Chris Pummer Posted: June 23, 2009 at 11:23 PM (#3230012)

Keith -- I do post here, and thanks.

You've also mentioned a couple things I didn't because I thought things were running a little long. The Sox wouldn't get much for Thome, Dye, Dotel or Podsednik. If that's the case, why would you decide to deal any of them when you are 1) in a two-team market and 2) capable of making a run even if you just stand pat.

I don't see Jenks going anywhere at the trade deadline unless KW is offered some really nice pieces in return. If the return is only a bag of crap, might as well wait until the offseason to do it. The market might even be more roubust then as some other teams that see themselves as contenders in 2010 might decide to get involved.

12. HowardMegdal

Posted: June 24, 2009 at 03:54 AM (#3230532)

Encarnacion was transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day last week, so he's not going to return for a while.

I'm pretty sure you're wrong.

And I agree that Chris is spot-on. Made a Tigers fan very upset with his analysis at a book signing tonight.

13. vortex of dissipation Posted: June 24, 2009 at 04:01 AM (#3230535)

Encarnacion was transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day last week, so he's not going to return for a while.

I'm pretty sure you're wrong.

That is strange. It certainly sounds like he's close to returning, from the info in the article that you linked. But they did put him on the 60-day DL three days ago, on June 20:

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=cin#month=6&year=2009&team_id=113

Perhaps that's retroactive to the date of the injury, and is just a move to free up space on the 15-day DL?

14. HowardMegdal

Posted: June 24, 2009 at 04:04 AM (#3230537)

That is strange. It certainly sounds like he's close to returning, from the info in the article that you linked. But they did put him on the 60-day DL three days ago, on June 20:

That would be my guess- maybe Alex Gonzalez-based?

I could check into it, but instead I'm going to sleep. Good news though, Edwin Encarnacion fans (and count me among them)!

15. Danny Posted: June 24, 2009 at 04:36 AM (#3230543)

Perhaps that's retroactive to the date of the injury, and is just a move to free up space on the 15-day DL?

He was transferred to the 60 day DL, which reverts back to the date he was originally put on the 15 day DL (4/28). So he should be eligible to return June 28th or so.

16. shattnering his Dominicano G Strings on that Mound Posted: June 24, 2009 at 05:35 AM (#3230575)

I'm still trying to understand how Edwin Encarnacion has been their best hitter in recent years...

17. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: June 24, 2009 at 06:23 AM (#3230596)

I'll never forget the night that Brenneman and Brantley trashed Encarnacion when he came up in the ninth (or maybe in extras), for being "unclutch," and he suddenly hit a game-winning homerun. It was the most awesomest thing ever.

18. Dunn Deal Posted: June 24, 2009 at 01:56 PM (#3230763)

I'll never forget the night that Brenneman and Brantley trashed Encarnacion when he came up in the ninth (or maybe in extras), for being "unclutch," and he suddenly hit a game-winning homerun. It was the most awesomest thing ever.

I agree; that was simply perfect. Although to be fair, Thom Brenneman actually seemed to be defending Edwin, at least a little.

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The Perpetual Post: Megdal & Pummer: Unlikely Buyers: Reds or White Sox?

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