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Tuesday, March 14, 2017

The win-now and win-later windows of the 2017 baseball season

The Giants come close, but baseball really doesn’t have a team that’s analogous to the 2011 Phillies, which means we’ll focus on that scrum closer toward the top of the Y-axis. Here’s a quick thumbnail sketch of why each of those teams are so high on the window-shut-o-meter:

The Tigers are old and they have a bunch of long-term contracts on the books
The Royals have a bunch of free agents after the season, and they’ve already spent a lot more than they normally do
The Mariners are surprisingly old, both in the rotation and lineup
The Blue Jays are less surprisingly old, though they have some youth in the rotation
The Orioles are either going to lose Manny Machado or buy him an island, and they’re on the older side, too.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 14, 2017 at 01:46 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: grant brisbee, win

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   1. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: March 14, 2017 at 03:09 PM (#5417270)
I think they give the Reds too much of a chance....
   2. Man o' Schwar Posted: March 14, 2017 at 03:49 PM (#5417287)
That bottom left quadrant is a sad and lonely place. I hope the Cubs, after spending so many years there, at least left some beer in the fridge.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: March 14, 2017 at 03:57 PM (#5417292)
What is the 'window' based on? The Marlins, for example, have a good young outfield, but older pitching and a terrible farm system.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 14, 2017 at 04:19 PM (#5417310)
What is the 'window' based on?

Stare at an organizational depth chart for a while.
Look at every team’s contract situation.
Peek at how many of the team’s top prospects will be in Double-A or above.
Drink more than my doctor recommends.
Pretend like I know what’s going to happen in the upcoming season, even though I’m bad at this.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: March 14, 2017 at 07:06 PM (#5417405)
Houston looks way too far to the right. They're a solid team but their chance at contending is not close to Cubs, Dodger, Red Sox, Nats, Indians. I don't know what the Mets are doing that high either -- also a solid team. That's not a knock (well, not much of one) on either team, just a statement that they are much closer to the fringes of contention than those top teams. They should be back closer to the Giants, Rangers, Pirates, Cards, Yankees end.

Fair enough, fg projects the Astros to 91 wins, same as the Nats ... I have my doubts but whatever ... but the Mets at just 85 wins and the 2nd NL wild card, one game ahead of the Cards, three ahead of the Pirates, 2 behind the Giants. I can't find many areas of disagreement with their Astros projection, maybe a couple of wins so possibly the Astros are a bit better than I thought.

Did fangraphs lower replacement level again? They've got the Astros projected to 46 WAR and 91 wins, suggesting replacement is at 45. The Cubs come in at 50 WAR and 95 wins ... but the Dodgers at 51 WAR and just 94 wins. Or is this just the projected win totals taking account of things like schedule variation, etc?
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: March 14, 2017 at 07:20 PM (#5417415)
This thing is somewhat a joke. How in the world is the Cardinals "window closing"? They have the top rated catching prospect in baseball ready to take over for their aging catcher, their veteran pitchers are younger than the veteran pitchers of the Cubs, their youth pitchers are better than the young pitchers of the Cubs(or most other teams) they have a rookie shortstop that made the all star team last year, they have several young outfielders, etc. etc. etc. And of course they have proven time and time again that they will make the moves that need to be made.

I do not see any way the Pirates have both a better shot of contending this year and a better window open.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: March 14, 2017 at 09:17 PM (#5417465)
Which reminds me that the window open/close axis is oddly oriented. In such a graph, usually "good/best" is the upper right quadrant not the lower right. "Window open" is positive, not negative.

I do not see any way the Pirates have both a better shot of contending this year and a better window open.

Maybe you need to switch to his doctor.
   8. depletion Posted: March 14, 2017 at 09:38 PM (#5417479)
I don't see the Mets as equal to the Nats in "should contend" but lower in the "window open" dimension. David Wright and Curtis Granderson are the only important players in decline phase; they got almost nothing out of Wright last year and still contended, kind-of. Aren't the Nats considered stronger contenders in 2017?
   9. Bote Man Posted: March 14, 2017 at 10:29 PM (#5417496)
There's a school of thought that the notion of a "window" is a fallacy. That, just like New York City is in constant rejuvenation in one part or another, it's not like a team can't contend while it's saying goodbye to veterans with expiring contracts and calling up the youngsters. It's broader, depending on the quality of scouting and analytics, their farm system, the savvy of their management, and probably other factors.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: March 14, 2017 at 10:50 PM (#5417504)
Which reminds me that the window open/close axis is oddly oriented. In such a graph, usually "good/best" is the upper right quadrant not the lower right. "Window open" is positive, not negative.


That was the other thing it took me a minute to orientate myself on... that is a bit weird, you would imagine that the "best" scenario would be top right, not bottom right, so the first time I looked at it, it seemed a bit odd, my assumption is that the Cubs are widely considered both the best team right now and going forward, not sure about the other two(Red Sox and Dodgers, both seem to have more issues than the Cardinals going forward, but who knows)


There's a school of thought that the notion of a "window" is a fallacy. That, just like New York City is in constant rejuvenation in one part or another, it's not like a team can't contend while it's saying goodbye to veterans with expiring contracts and calling up the youngsters. It's broader, depending on the quality of scouting and analytics, their farm system, the savvy of their management, and probably other factors.


To an extent that is true, but in this sense, Window means what it feels like if no other changes are made to the organization going forward. You look at their prospects, you look at their age, you look at their recent history of willingness to spend...

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