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Tuesday, January 10, 2006

The Writers: Rosen: Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Bob Rosen, of the Elias Sports Bureau (who knew?)...with his ballot of Rice, Belle and Garvey.

Steve Garvey was one of the best all around players of his era when he played. He had wonderful batting statistics and statistics are my love and my profession. He was also an excellent fielder at first base. He appeared in several postseason games which proves his contribution to his team. He was also an All-Star several time which goes to show his achievements as a player. I think that he deserves HOF consideration for his overall excellence in general.

And after 92! ballots…the top ten are.

72.8%- Gossage
71.7%- Sutter
60.8%- Dawson  
55.4%- Rice
48.9%- Blyleven
44.5%- Lee Smith
40.2%- Morris
22.8%- T.John
15.2%- Trammell
14.1%- Garvey

Repoz Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:59 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:17 PM (#1814370)
What wonderful batting statistics did Garvey have that Don Mattingly and Will Clark did not?

The love for Garvey and Dawson in these ballots is just perplexing.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:21 PM (#1814377)
Don Mattingly graciously retired to allow Derek Jeter to step into the spotlight in NYC. That alone is HOF worthy.
   3. sygamel Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:27 PM (#1814390)
Thanks again for all the updates Repoz. My current exposure:

Blyleven No 2000 to win 250
Gossage No 175 to win 75
Sutter No 24 to win 46

I have to think Garvey's popularity stems precisely from his postseason appearances (4?).
   4. ThereGoesMoseby Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#1814394)
I RTFA... and wow. It reads like a YardWork article.
   5. Bob T Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:29 PM (#1814397)
Garvey appeared in five postseasons: 1974, 1977, 1978, 1981, and 1984.
   6. John Northey Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:29 PM (#1814398)
Rice Belle and Garvey? What a weird little ballot that was. One wonders somedays about these voters. Interesting that he mentions Blyleven as his top non-pick. To me voting for Rice over Dawson always seems odd, and picking Garvey at all is very odd. Albert Belle did have a killer peak though.

Ah well. Just an hour and a half until we know who is in and who waits for another year (or two or three or ...)
   7. Steve Treder Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:31 PM (#1814401)
He had wonderful batting statistics and statistics are my love and my profession.

OK, which is it?
   8. BDC Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:44 PM (#1814422)
In the late 1970s, Garvey was very much on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He got 200 hits every year, batted .300, drove in 100 runs, and played just brilliantly in All-Star and postseason games. In fact, he is one of the few clear examples of players who absolutely took it up a notch against better competition. You'd see him and Pete Rose take the field in an All-Star game and it was clear the American League was doomed.

But after he went to San Diego, though the postseason heroics resurfaced in 1984, he just wasn't much good anymore. He got hurt and lost his bid (it was serious, if far short) to pass Lou Gehrig's streak. He became a .280 hitter who drove in 80 runs, and that didn't impress anybody. He was seen as sticking around hoping to eke out 3,000 hits, and that turned people off. And then he was washed up well short of 3,000 hits or 1,500 RBI.

If you are still running on impressions accumulated in 1974-80, though, Garvey still looks like a Hall of Famer to you, no doubt.
   9. jmac66 Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#1814432)
Garvey still looks like a Hall of Famer to you

it's so cute, in a way..Elias spends all this time and money compling statistics (which they very snottily refuse to share with anyone), and they don't have the slightest (forgetting) idea what the statistics MEAN
   10. salvomania Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:53 PM (#1814441)
From the article: ...the DH has been a part of baseball for over forty seasons
and why punish a player who did his job as a DH with excellence?


The DH was introduced into MLB 33 seasons ago... was it an established part of collegiate or minor-league ball prior to that?
   11. Repoz Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:54 PM (#1814442)
statistics are my love and my profession

and you can't have them...nyah, nyah...nyah, nyah, nyah!
   12. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#1814448)
Garvey appeared in five postseasons:

As did Will Clark.
   13. Paul M Hates Krispy Kreme Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#1814462)
Plain and simple: Clark>Mattingly>Garvey.
   14. sasquatch83 Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:06 PM (#1814466)
That graph quoted above reads horribly.

In essence

"I like Steve Garvey. He had ___. He was ____. He did ____. He had ____. I like Steve Garvey."

It also doesn't help that two of his four reasons are valuing postseason appearances (he could have at least mentioned performance) and AllStar appearances.

And while I'm being snarky, his language gets weaker - he doesn't talk about how many times Garvey played in the postseason (55), doesn't mention how MANY times he was an All Star (10), has a typo in that sentence, and ends with "I think he deserves consideration," which is about the weakest conclusion I can think of.

Ok, I'm done.
   15. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:07 PM (#1814471)
What's it they say about "lies, damned lies, and . . . ?"

Seriously, if this guy loves statistics so much, he ought to pick up a book sometime and figure out how they're actually useful.
   16. Moloka'i Three-Finger Brown (Declino DeShields) Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:20 PM (#1814512)
Hey, give the guy a break. He said he loved statistics, not that he knows anything about them.
   17. DCA Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:24 PM (#1814524)
kind of like most of us, and women
   18. Artie Ziff Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:41 PM (#1814551)
I agree that Blyleven and Dawson are way too high on that list. If they get in, it is not really a Hall Of Fame anymore. Gossage and Sutter are borderline, but they will make it when everyone realizes how big saves were at that time.
   19. Repoz Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#1814557)
After 92 ballots...I'm going to sleep.


72.8%- Gossage
71.7%- Sutter
60.8%- Dawson
55.4%- Rice
48.9%- Blyleven
44.5%- Lee Smith
40.2%- Morris
22.8%- T.John
15.2%- Trammell
14.1%- Garvey
10.8%- Belle
8.7%- Murphy
6.5%- Mattingly
5.4%- Parker
4.3%- Hershiser
3.3%- Concepcion
1.0%- W.Clark
1.0%- McGee

3.2%- P. Rose (write-ins)
   20. "Catching Dianetics" by Dr. L. Ron Karkovice Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#1814558)
Does Bruce Sutter get statistical credit for Strike-Outs credited to future pitchers who used his patented split-finger fastball to whiff batters. It seems like we should give partial credit for these strikeouts, say 80% (the pitchers did, after all, have to actually throw the pitch!). Sutter retired in 1988. From 1989-2005, Pitchers have struck out approximately 442,000 batters. Let's be conservative and assume that the devastating split-finger fastball accounts for 60% of all pitcher's strikeouts. So Sutter was indirectly responsible for 80% of 48,400 strikeouts, or 38,700 strikeouts from 1989-2005. Tack on the 861 Strikeouts Sutter accomplished during the brief portion of his career where he actually had to throw pitches to accumulate statistics (1976-1986, 1988) and Sutter has totalled 39,561 Strikouts in only 1042 innings pitched. This statistic leads to several obvious conclusions.

1. Sutter is clearly Hall Worthy. Nolan Ryan is generally recognized as the greatest pitcher of all time despite racking up a paltry (in comparisson) 5700 strikeouts. Sutter, by comparisson, racked up nearly 7 times this many strikeouts. And unlike Ryan, who needed 5386 Career innings to accomplish his feat, Sutter was able to far exceed Ryan's career total while pitching in over 4000 fewer innings. Ryan is in the Hall, I think Sutter belongs as well.

2. Sutter accomplished his remarkable Strikeout feat in an era where closers were frequently asked to go 2, 3 or even 4 innings at a time. This was back in the days when Closers had lots of facial hair and great, burly nicknames (and physciques to match)like Goose, Rollie, or the Mad Hungarian. No left handed releif specialists, no 8th inning set-up men, just starters and finishers. If the game was on the line, Sutter was the go-to guy day in and day out.

3. Sutter's 39,561 Strikouts in 1024 innings comes out to over 40 strikeouts per inning. By comparison, Randy Johnson, the so-called "Big unit" because of his "mythical" dominance has averaged just over 1 strikeout per inning over his career. This leads us to a few simple conclusions. Randy "myth of dominance" is just that....a myth! Secondly, Sutter's split-finger fastball must have been absolutely devastating. He struck out nearly 40 batters per inning. The devastating pitch had so much movement, that few catchers could track it coming to the plate, resulting in lots of passed ball third strikes, and lots of embarrassed strikeout victims, made to look like whiffle-ballers by the devastating force that was the Sutter Split-finger!
   21. Bad Doctor Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:47 PM (#1814561)
He appeared in several postseason games which proves his contribution to his team.

In Repoz's spare time, he enjoys throwing the carcasses of small animals into piranha tanks.
   22. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:47 PM (#1814562)
I suggest that we ask the Justice Department to prosecute Artie Ziff under the new "anonymous harrass or annoy over the internet" laws.
   23. Halofan Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:49 PM (#1814564)
OLD COOT DON'T KNOW CRABOLA 'BOUT NO BAYBALL, WHAT DA HAY HE BOTIN' FOR DAM COOPISTOWN
   24. Steve Treder Posted: January 10, 2006 at 06:53 PM (#1814572)
The DH was introduced into MLB 33 seasons ago... was it an established part of collegiate or minor-league ball prior to that?

No.
   25. Moloka'i Three-Finger Brown (Declino DeShields) Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:01 PM (#1814584)
17: Ah! I'm glad someone took the empty HOV lane!
   26. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:03 PM (#1814587)
Congratulations to Bruce Sutter.
   27. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#1814589)
I really don't understand how Sutter got in and Gossage didn't.

(And Blyleven, of course.)
   28. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#1814591)
My God - Blyleven skyrocketed up to 58.3%!

He just might get in yet!
   29. "Catching Dianetics" by Dr. L. Ron Karkovice Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#1814592)
Sutter is in
   30. Moloka'i Three-Finger Brown (Declino DeShields) Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:05 PM (#1814594)
   31. Dread Pirate Dave Roberts Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:05 PM (#1814595)
HOF announces it's Bruce Sutter.
   32. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#1814598)
Sutter? Seriously?

A surprisingly strong showing for Rice, as well.

But out of Sutter, Gossage, and Lee, I'd probably vote for Sutter last.
   33. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#1814602)
Sutter 76.9%
Rice 64.8%
Gossage 64.6%
Dawson 61.0%
Blyleven 58.3%
Then Smith, Morris, John, Child Moletsing Nazi War Criminal, & Trammell in the top ten.

Hershiser 11.2%
Belle 7.7%

That's all I can get to get now.
   34. The Balls of Summer Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:09 PM (#1814606)
Sutter. The guy that probably doesn't deserve it over guys that do (Gossage, Blyleven, Trammell).

Oh well.
   35. WillYoung Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:35 PM (#1814669)
The Thrill drops off after his first ballot along with the guy who is currently having his name custom-sewn onto the back of my powder blue Twins jersey (Gaetti).
   36. Traderdave Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:47 PM (#1814689)
I'd love to hear a voter stand up and publicly explain/defend his choice of Sutter over Gossage, or several others for that matter. That would be entertaining.
   37. jmac66 Posted: January 10, 2006 at 08:10 PM (#1814753)
I'd love to hear a voter stand up and publicly explain/defend his choice of Sutter over Gossage

as I said in a post a couple months ago, Sutter became a concept rather than a former pitcher

"we don't have enuff relievers in the hall...who was a good reliever..first guy to be used in the modern mode..Sutter..Sutter?...OK, Sutter"


Fingers (Gossage) Sutter Eckersly
   38. Old Matt Posted: January 10, 2006 at 08:15 PM (#1814767)
Doc didn't get enough votes to stay on, that disappoints me.
   39. John Northey Posted: January 10, 2006 at 08:40 PM (#1814840)
So, the shifting of votes...

Sutter - 66.7% to 76.9% (up 10.2%)
Rice - 59.5% to 64.8% (up 5.3%)
Goose - 55.2% to 64.6% (up 9.4%)
Dawson - 52.3% to 61.0% (up 8.7%)
Blyleven - 40.9% to 53.3% (up 12.4%)
Smith - 38.8% to 45.0% (up 6.2%)
Morris - 33.3% to 41.2% (up 7.9%)
John - 23.8% to 29.6% (up 5.8%)
Garvey - 20.5% to 26.0% (up 4.5%)
Trammell - 16.9% to 17.7% (up 0.8%)
Parker - 12.6% to 14.4% (up 1.8%)
Mattingly - 11.4% to 12.3% (up 0.9%)
Concepcion - 10.7% to 12.5% (up 1.8%)
Murphy - 10.5% to 10.8% (up 0.3%)
McGee - 5.0% to 2.3% (down 1.7%)

Wow, just one guy went down year over year (McGee). Biggest gainer was Blyleven, the only one in double digits outside of Sutter. I suspect only Goose has a shot next year of this group though as outfield voters will go for Gwynn over Rice & Dawson, while power hitter fans go for McGwire (Ripken is an all-around overall pick so shouldn't 'hurt' any of the others). Goose also will have one less competitor for the 'reliever vote' (figuring some voters pick no more than one of each type of player each year). Blyleven might also gain more ground with one less pitcher on the list.

Lee Smith is the one to watch next year as other relievers get close to his record (Hoffman could catch him next year with 42, Rivera is still 99 away). This could either help (brings more attention) or hurt (record not that impressive if guys 'already' are about to break it).
   40. jmac66 Posted: January 10, 2006 at 09:04 PM (#1814904)
actual

<i<Sutter - 66.7% to 76.9% (up 10.2%)
Rice - 59.5% to 64.8% (up 5.3%)
Goose - 55.2% to 64.6% (up 9.4%)
Dawson - 52.3% to 61.0% (up 8.7%)
Blyleven - 40.9% to 53.3% (up 12.4%)
Smith - 38.8% to 45.0% (up 6.2%)
Morris - 33.3% to 41.2% (up 7.9%)
John - 23.8% to 29.6% (up 5.8%)
Garvey - 20.5% to 26.0% (up 4.5%)
Trammell - 16.9% to 17.7% (up 0.8%)
Parker - 12.6% to 14.4% (up 1.8%)
Mattingly - 11.4% to 12.3% (up 0.9%)</i>


vs Repoz compilation of writers published votes
72.8%- Gossage
71.7%- Sutter
60.8%- Dawson
55.4%- Rice
48.9%- Blyleven
44.5%- Lee Smith
40.2%- Morris
22.8%- T.John
15.2%- Trammell
14.1%- Garvey
10.8%- Belle
8.7%- Murphy
6.5%- Mattingly


so Gossage did much worser and Bert actually did better (as did Rice)

and whither Lee Smith?
   41. Christopher Linden Posted: January 10, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#1814908)
... Sutter became a concept rather than a former pitcher

That, in a nutshell, describes a good deal of the Hall of Fame voting. It's a waste of time asking these guys to explain their logic; even if one were to step forth (and let's face it, to some degree they DO step forth, since they're writing columns about this stuff all the time) they wouldn't have any logic to explain, because logic is not the primary basis on which they make their decisions.

HOF votes -- and some voters had admitted/confessed to this -- are largely about perceptions and feelings. Who was it* who said that he looks down the ballot and simply asks himself "did this guy feel like a Hall of Famer?" Drawing logically-consistent conclusions based on vigorous research and rational analysis simply ain't what these guys do. Sutter is remembered by BBWAA types as a dominant, unhittable reliever in his day, the guy who invented the split-finger fastball, which was THE pitch of the eighties, and a major force for the world-champ '82 Cards ("We wouldn't have won it without Bruce. He was the glue that held us together. We looked at him, sitting in the bullpen, not doing much of anything except scratching himself, cleaning his spikes, maybe munching on a Snickers, and all us guys felt more confident 'cause we knew he was on our side. And he had 36 or whatever saves and all of them were huge.")

Happy Base Ball

*I want to say Bruce Jenkins
   42. jmac66 Posted: January 10, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#1814910)
Dawson, Morris, and Lee Smith were nailed on the nose
   43. Bunny Vincennes Posted: January 10, 2006 at 09:14 PM (#1814928)
Ugh. Garvey. What a miserable prick.
   44. Repoz Posted: January 10, 2006 at 11:15 PM (#1815196)
The official final end-all Primer HOF poll (2 came in just before the deadline...next time Mel Antonen...announce your picks well before you start a live chat at USA Today...jeesh)

94 Ballots

72.3%- Gossage
72.3%- Sutter
61.7%- Dawson
56.3%- Rice
50.0%- Blyleven
43.6%- Lee Smith
41.4%- Morris
22.3%- T.John
17.0%- Trammell
13.8%- Garvey
10.6%- Belle
8.5%- Murphy
6.3%- Mattingly
5.3%- Parker
4.2%- Hershiser
3.1%- Concepcion
1.0%- W.Clark
1.0%- McGee

3.1%- P. Rose (write-ins)

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