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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, December 06, 2012
We got the centerfielder right here, the name is Ben Revere, and here’s a guy who says if the Roster’s clear, can do, can do…
The Phillies will not leave the Winter Meetings empty handed.
Multiple sources confirmed to MLB.com this morning the Phillies have acquired outfielder Ben Revere in a trade with the Minnesota Twins. CBS’ Danny Knobler reported Vance Worley is part of the trade.
Revere hit .294 with 13 doubles, six triples, 32 RBIs, 40 stolen bases and 70 runs scored in 511 at-bats last season. He also carried a .333 on-base percentage and a .342 slugging percentage.
“If they get him, based on what’s available, they did all right,” one high-ranking American League executive said this morning. “He’s a solid average player. That’s how I look at him. He’s above average defensively. He can run. My biggest question, considering his size (5-foot-9, 170 pounds), is if he can play 145, 150 games. But he puts the ball in play better than I thought he would.”
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1. Bill Liming Posted: December 06, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4318763)More likely, it's just more evidence that they aren't going to spend real money to fix their current problems and that the Howard contract is going to continue to kill them. Well, that, and the fact that Amaro just isn't much of a GM.
Revere has really good range, but his throwing arm is on the level of Johnny Damon, which limits his overall defense n center. He has literally no power, so if he isn't hitting .300 he's not producing. This trade doesn't really look inspiring for the Phillies.
Phillies fans just watched a full season of Juan Pierre, so this should be familiar.
If everything breaks right for Revere you get one of Juan Pierre's best seasons. If he tears an ACL you have Jason Tyner.
Oh wait, someone just did. Nevermind.
The Nationals also gave up a lot less in terms of 2013. If the Phillies were making the move to stay even with Washington they're doing it wrong.
Worley's the fourth or fifth starter if they have any chance of winning the division. No huge loss for this team in particular.
I'm not as high on Worley as most seem to be and know nothing of the prospect. I like it for the Phils.
Now, now, Voros, lets not be petty.
Is there a doubt?
And man, Francoeur looked bad on that play.
Bourn has at least a little pop (.093 ISO) Revere has none (.044 ISO). And Bourn has pretty much always had a ~9% BB-rate. Revere is closer to 5%.
I am guessing Mastoianni gets first crack. If he can't hack it, they may try Joe Benson. If things get really messy, they might give Hicks a shot. A lot of my friends think this means Hicks is freed, but I think the opposite- if they are playing the long game and acquiring future assets, there is no reason to rush Hicks to the majors, start is service clock, and risk stunting his fragile development.
Edit: Coke to Chris.
also, in comparison to other NL east CFs, michael bourn was at .487, shane victorino was a .471, bj upton was a .521, and denard span was a .461.
and in comparison with other top of the lineup hitters, jimmy rollins was at .510, chase utley was at .500, coco crisp was at .531, and colby rasmus was at .438.
so basically, out of every option available, ben revere appears to have been the least desirable. wonderful.
as for what the phillies gave up, vance worley wasn't that good in the 2nd half of the season and was shut down in august with elbow problems. and trevor may has almost no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. so, while this looks like an overpay on paper, it is a definite possibility that the twins get no production out of this deal either.
it's still a shitty trade, though.
Oswaldo Arcia looks like a RF.
It's not that, it's that Worley had 3.2 WAR in 2011 and his 2012 numbers were only a hair worse except for the ridiculous .351 BABIP. Revere's a decent player, but then so is Worley, and the other guy was in BA's Top 100 going into last year. It's not so much "why Revere" as it is "why so much to get him?"
Edit: that may be a bit harsh, but the upside for both is likely a 100 OPS+ with good D. Its taking some time to get used to the lower offensive numbers in MLB.
Mastroianni's not lefthanded but otherwise, yeah.
The Phils have some money -- how about Greinke for the reenactment of the "4 aces, except one of them might broken"?
Accurate assessment.
Terry Ryan has announced that Hicks will compete with Mastroianni and Benson for the starting CF job. I'm guessing that Cris E and andrewberg have it pretty much pegged as far as the pecking order goes. Mastroianni is 2 1/2 years older than Revere with the same basic skill set. Benson's 2012 was a wasted season between injury and general suckitude but he has shown good power and patience in the past and if he shows any sign of recovery he probably should get the shot. Hicks, I think, really needs AAA time.
-- MWE
To be fair, Worley may have already imploded, as he was shut down in August after pitching badly for two months, as noted above by STEAGLES.
Thus yesterday's Daily News explained that it would be good to trade him, May and another prospect for Justin Upton.
What are the odds that Manuel bats Revere second behind Rollins? That's where he mostly batted Pierre last year.
33 of them have gone for extra bases (12%). 0 of them have gone over the fence.
It’s pretty clear that there’s a baseline level of power you need to have to play regularly in Major League Baseball (let’s call it the Otis Nixon Line, and say that you need 13% of your hits to go for extra bases), and that—right now—Ben Revere is below it.
Of course, he’s very young, and could develop some more power later on.
So, I wondered, have there been other players who have started their career hitting for as little power as Revere (<13% XBH rate) who then started hitting for power later on? So I got a list of players who had seasons with XBH rates as low as Revere’s was. There are some interesting names on it:
* Kirby Puckett, 1984. His rookie year, he had 150 hits—12 doubles, 5 triples, no homers (11%). In ‘85 he bumped it up to 23%, and in ‘86 he hit 31 homers.
* Pete Rose, 1964. As a 23 year-old, Rose had 139 hits—13 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 homers (13%). The next year he made the All-Star team, and had 35 doubles, 11 triples and 11 homers.
* Elvis Andrus, 2010. The 21 year-old Andrus had 156 hits—15 were doubles, 3 were triples (11.5%). Over the last 2 years, he’s bumped it up to 21.3% and 23.9%.
* Omar Vizquel, 1992-1993: 25-26 year-old Vizquel had 34 doubles, 6 triples, and 2 homers among his 285 hits (14.7%). He would go on to establish himself as a consistent 30 double/5 triple/5 homer player over the rest of his career.
* Don Kessinger, 1966-68: His 23-25 year seasons saw him record just 50 extra base hits (out of 437 total). In 1969 he finished 2nd in the league in doubles with 38, and continued to produce at a 20% XBH rate for the rest of his career.
That fence is far away, man.
Man, I loved the original show when I was 10 years old.
Sure, but please god not another one by Beyonce.
Revere didn't have much (if any) XBH power in the minors though either.
Denard Span was pretty low-power (not as low as Revere, but low) and took a big step forward in power (and basically his all-around hitting) around his 24th birthday. (Although he looks to have regressed a bit after age 25)
Revere is 24, turns 25 in May 2013. I don't think he will ever hit with any power. He's really just a younger, faster (and better defensive?) Jason Tyner, when Tyner was at his late career ~85 OPS+ "peak" with the Twins.
Yeah. Over his last 1200 minor league PAs (high A, AA, and AAA ball), Revere had 40 extra-base hits.
I'm just not seeing any scenarios in which he becomes even an ML regular. I'd love to be wrong, since he's a lot of fun to watch, but I can't see it happening.
He has taken time to adapt to each level as he has been promoted. That does not strike me as the profile of a player who will do well being rushed.
So what you're saying is that you ARE Darin Mastroianni posting under a poorly disguised pen name?
That game really had high expectations for Scott Moore for a few years.
Good stuff. I wouldn't hold my breath on Revere doing it. All of those except Kessinger showed some power in the minors, and Revere hasn't.
MiLB XBH%:
Revere 16
Puckett 23
Rose 29
Andrus 22
Vizquel 23
Kessinger 14
And at 25 I disagree with those who say he is "very young." At 25 (in May) you are about to enter your prime.
The AP story went there.
I put the important parts in bold.
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