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Thursday, December 06, 2012

The Zo Zone—Sources: Phillies Acquire Revere

We got the centerfielder right here, the name is Ben Revere, and here’s a guy who says if the Roster’s clear, can do, can do…

The Phillies will not leave the Winter Meetings empty handed.

Multiple sources confirmed to MLB.com this morning the Phillies have acquired outfielder Ben Revere in a trade with the Minnesota Twins. CBS’ Danny Knobler reported Vance Worley is part of the trade.

Revere hit .294 with 13 doubles, six triples, 32 RBIs, 40 stolen bases and 70 runs scored in 511 at-bats last season. He also carried a .333 on-base percentage and a .342 slugging percentage.

“If they get him, based on what’s available, they did all right,” one high-ranking American League executive said this morning. “He’s a solid average player. That’s how I look at him. He’s above average defensively. He can run. My biggest question, considering his size (5-foot-9, 170 pounds), is if he can play 145, 150 games. But he puts the ball in play better than I thought he would.”

 

AndrewJ Posted: December 06, 2012 at 01:27 PM | 70 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, trades, twins

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   1. jacjacatk Posted: December 06, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4318763)
So, start contract dumping in June?
   2. RJ in TO Posted: December 06, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4318772)
I really like this trade for the Twins. Not so much for the Phillies.
   3. jacjacatk Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4318776)
I mean, unless Revere is a stunningly good defender in CF (doesn't appear to be the case at first glance) and they're doing this to help cover Ruf in LF, this is a terrible trade.

More likely, it's just more evidence that they aren't going to spend real money to fix their current problems and that the Howard contract is going to continue to kill them. Well, that, and the fact that Amaro just isn't much of a GM.
   4. Dan Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4318781)
3. Bill Liming Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4318776)
I mean, unless Revere is a stunningly good defender in CF (doesn't appear to be the case at first glance) and they're doing this to help cover Ruf in LF, this is a terrible trade.


Revere has really good range, but his throwing arm is on the level of Johnny Damon, which limits his overall defense n center. He has literally no power, so if he isn't hitting .300 he's not producing. This trade doesn't really look inspiring for the Phillies.
   5. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4318782)
I'd like to know the full details on this, because though Revere is a decent enough player, Worley and May seem like an awful lot for a guy with as little upside as Revere has (and as much as Worley and May have). I think the best the Phillies can say is that Worley and Revere are a wash (and I think that's a stretch), so having to give up someone like May as well seems overkill.
   6. AROM Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4318788)
Revere has really good range, but his throwing arm is on the level of Johnny Damon, which limits his overall defense n center. He has literally no power, so if he isn't hitting .300 he's not producing.


Phillies fans just watched a full season of Juan Pierre, so this should be familiar.
   7. Gamingboy Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4318791)
   8. RJ in TO Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4318793)
What's the upside for Revere? If everything breaks right, he has a couple seasons like standard Juan Pierre, or peak Otis Nixon? That's a useful player, but not the sort of thing you trade a solid starter and a good prospect for.
   9. formerly dp Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4318794)
#7: I hate you for that.
   10. Cris E Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4318796)
Upside? Revere might learn to hit more doubles into the corners. His weak arm might not be as exposed in CF as it was in RF last year. His terrific CF defense could continue to improve in a full-time role. He could steal more bases. It's not hopeless or anything, but he's not a big guy and he's still learning the game. But you're right, Ryan got a great deal. Amaro must have felt like he needed to do something.
   11. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4318804)
Trading from strength to get ... a player who is not very good. The consequences of trading every prospect in the farm system except Domonic Brown and then having him turn into a bust continue to snowball.
   12. Cris E Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4318805)
Need to find the video of the tumbling triple...
   13. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4318807)
Revere is really fast and has improved his route-taking and his throwing. Not going to be an elite defender but will be above average. Good baserunner and basestealer but his offense is based on batting average. No power aside from leg doubles and few walks.

If everything breaks right for Revere you get one of Juan Pierre's best seasons. If he tears an ACL you have Jason Tyner.
   14. Cris E Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4318808)
   15. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4318813)
The Phillies have had the whole range of speedy center fielders recently, from Chris Roberson through Greg Golson to Michael Bourn. Revere seems like a nice guy. If he can throw.
   16. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4318814)
I guess the twins decided to clean house regarding center fielders. I am not a Ben R guy, so it works for me.
   17. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4318818)
His throwing improved dramatically as the year went on. He's getting his legs into the throw now and is pretty accurate hitting the cutoff. Still will be below average for a CF so it may pull the SS/2B farther out into the outfield.
   18. PreservedFish Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4318820)
Francoeur really looks inept in that video.
   19. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4318825)
Can someone post all the highlights from all the series last year between the Twins and the Royals?

Oh wait, someone just did. Nevermind.
   20. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4318826)
As far as Twins trading centerfielders to the NL East, it looks like the Nationals gave up a lot less than the Phils did, for a better player.
   21. andrewberg Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4318828)
Very excited about Twins new top 10 prospects. Something like: Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, May, Gibson, Rosario, Berrios, Meyer, Kepler.
   22. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4318830)
The Nationals also gave up a lot less in terms of 2013. If the Phillies were making the move to stay even with Washington they're doing it wrong.
   23. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4318832)
Is there a chance Revere is the new leadoff hitter? He had a better OBP and more steals than JRoll last year.

The Nationals also gave up a lot less in terms of 2013. If the Phillies were making the move to stay even with Washington they're doing it wrong.

Worley's the fourth or fifth starter if they have any chance of winning the division. No huge loss for this team in particular.
   24. Steve N Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4318835)
Thanks for the triple video. At the very least Revere looks to be a fun player to watch. His D in center would seem to be a plus and he's quite young. He also fits into a Phillies tradition of light hitting CF who get on base, Ashburn being the best but also Roy Thomas and Dode Paskert (these 2 go back quite a ways.) Don Locke sort of fits.

I'm not as high on Worley as most seem to be and know nothing of the prospect. I like it for the Phils.

Now, now, Voros, lets not be petty.
   25. eddieot Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4318836)
Is there a chance Revere is the new leadoff hitter? He had a better OBP and more steals than JRoll last year
.

Is there a doubt?
   26. Spivey Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:44 PM (#4318838)
I think people are a little down on Revere here. He had a 2.4 bWAR last year and a health amount of that came from offense. Seems to me like without too much changing he could turn into Michael Bourn.
   27. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4318840)
Well, they had the original Ben Revere last year, Juan Pierre, who spent 80% of his career as a leadoff hitter, and they only put him at leadoff 20 times.
   28. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4318842)
So who's playing CF for the Twins now?
And man, Francoeur looked bad on that play.
   29. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4318845)
When Terry Ryan said he was going after pitching I guess he was not kidding. I guess the future Twins OF backlog is much lower now. Thinking about the now Twins OF though ... let's talk about the future Twins OF.
   30. Cris E Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4318851)
April-June 2013: Mastroianni/Benson trying to cover for Willingham in LF and Parmalee in RF. But once the super 2 thing passes and Hicks proves he can play in AAA he'll get the call.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4318852)
I think people are a little down on Revere here. He had a 2.4 bWAR last year and a health amount of that came from offense. Seems to me like without too much changing he could turn into Michael Bourn.

Bourn has at least a little pop (.093 ISO) Revere has none (.044 ISO). And Bourn has pretty much always had a ~9% BB-rate. Revere is closer to 5%.

   32. andrewberg Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4318855)
So who's playing CF for the Twins now?


I am guessing Mastoianni gets first crack. If he can't hack it, they may try Joe Benson. If things get really messy, they might give Hicks a shot. A lot of my friends think this means Hicks is freed, but I think the opposite- if they are playing the long game and acquiring future assets, there is no reason to rush Hicks to the majors, start is service clock, and risk stunting his fragile development.

Edit: Coke to Chris.
   33. steagles Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4318857)
by one very simple measure ((TB + BB + SB - CS)/(PA)), ben revere rates as a .425. as a comparison, this past year domonic brown was a .448, john mayberry was a .436, juan pierre was a .453, and someone who was actually good (mike trout) was a .667.

also, in comparison to other NL east CFs, michael bourn was at .487, shane victorino was a .471, bj upton was a .521, and denard span was a .461.

and in comparison with other top of the lineup hitters, jimmy rollins was at .510, chase utley was at .500, coco crisp was at .531, and colby rasmus was at .438.


so basically, out of every option available, ben revere appears to have been the least desirable. wonderful.


as for what the phillies gave up, vance worley wasn't that good in the 2nd half of the season and was shut down in august with elbow problems. and trevor may has almost no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. so, while this looks like an overpay on paper, it is a definite possibility that the twins get no production out of this deal either.


it's still a shitty trade, though.
   34. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4318859)
Future Twins CF prospects: Buxton, Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, Max Kepler, Daniel Ortiz, Nate Roberts and Eddie Rosario if he can't stick at 2B. Then there's busted prospect Morales and the two guys they draft in the next couple seasons. They can't come out of a draft without a CF lately.

Oswaldo Arcia looks like a RF.
   35. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4318863)
I think people are a little down on Revere here.

It's not that, it's that Worley had 3.2 WAR in 2011 and his 2012 numbers were only a hair worse except for the ridiculous .351 BABIP. Revere's a decent player, but then so is Worley, and the other guy was in BA's Top 100 going into last year. It's not so much "why Revere" as it is "why so much to get him?"
   36. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4318864)
I'd certainly go with Mastro in CF if I only had to give up Revere to get Worley. Mastro sucks, but he's basically the same player as Revere.

Edit: that may be a bit harsh, but the upside for both is likely a 100 OPS+ with good D. Its taking some time to get used to the lower offensive numbers in MLB.
   37. JJ1986 Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4318866)
I'd try to pick up Drew Stubbs for a song. The pitchers already need all the help they can get, might as well have a real CF.
   38. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4318872)
The sheriff's after him for what he did to his daughter.
   39. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4318878)
Maybe that's it, he's been hitting with a wiffle-ball bat.
   40. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4318890)
Mastro sucks, but he's basically the same player as Revere.


Mastroianni's not lefthanded but otherwise, yeah.
   41. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4318891)
They got two pitchers for Revere so I guess that means "by sea".
   42. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4318895)
So the best hope for the Phils winning this trade is that Worley and May implode? Be still my heart.

The Phils have some money -- how about Greinke for the reenactment of the "4 aces, except one of them might broken"?
   43. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4318900)
#41 for the win
   44. JRVJ Posted: December 06, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4318911)
The Phillies commentariat (or at least what I've read - Crashburn, Good Phight and Phillies Nation) seem Ok with the deal, FWIW.
   45. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4318926)
If everything breaks right, he has a couple seasons like standard Juan Pierre, or peak Otis Nixon?


Accurate assessment.

Terry Ryan has announced that Hicks will compete with Mastroianni and Benson for the starting CF job. I'm guessing that Cris E and andrewberg have it pretty much pegged as far as the pecking order goes. Mastroianni is 2 1/2 years older than Revere with the same basic skill set. Benson's 2012 was a wasted season between injury and general suckitude but he has shown good power and patience in the past and if he shows any sign of recovery he probably should get the shot. Hicks, I think, really needs AAA time.

-- MWE
   46. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4318927)
So the best hope for the Phils winning this trade is that Worley and May implode? Be still my heart.

To be fair, Worley may have already imploded, as he was shut down in August after pitching badly for two months, as noted above by STEAGLES.

Thus yesterday's Daily News explained that it would be good to trade him, May and another prospect for Justin Upton.
   47. Sean Forman Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4318928)
Maybe the Twins go after Bourn now.
   48. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4318941)
Crispix, yeah, that's true enough. But if he is really hurt, presumably the Twins have checked him out. Amaro might be seeing Worley as the reincarnation of JA Happ and thought he'd better trade him while the tradin' was good.

What are the odds that Manuel bats Revere second behind Rollins? That's where he mostly batted Pierre last year.
   49. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4318945)
Ben Revere has 275 hits in his career.

33 of them have gone for extra bases (12%). 0 of them have gone over the fence.
   50. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4318946)
Re-posting from the Lounge:

It’s pretty clear that there’s a baseline level of power you need to have to play regularly in Major League Baseball (let’s call it the Otis Nixon Line, and say that you need 13% of your hits to go for extra bases), and that—right now—Ben Revere is below it.

Of course, he’s very young, and could develop some more power later on.

So, I wondered, have there been other players who have started their career hitting for as little power as Revere (<13% XBH rate) who then started hitting for power later on? So I got a list of players who had seasons with XBH rates as low as Revere’s was. There are some interesting names on it:

* Kirby Puckett, 1984. His rookie year, he had 150 hits—12 doubles, 5 triples, no homers (11%). In ‘85 he bumped it up to 23%, and in ‘86 he hit 31 homers.

* Pete Rose, 1964. As a 23 year-old, Rose had 139 hits—13 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 homers (13%). The next year he made the All-Star team, and had 35 doubles, 11 triples and 11 homers.

* Elvis Andrus, 2010. The 21 year-old Andrus had 156 hits—15 were doubles, 3 were triples (11.5%). Over the last 2 years, he’s bumped it up to 21.3% and 23.9%.

* Omar Vizquel, 1992-1993: 25-26 year-old Vizquel had 34 doubles, 6 triples, and 2 homers among his 285 hits (14.7%). He would go on to establish himself as a consistent 30 double/5 triple/5 homer player over the rest of his career.

* Don Kessinger, 1966-68: His 23-25 year seasons saw him record just 50 extra base hits (out of 437 total). In 1969 he finished 2nd in the league in doubles with 38, and continued to produce at a 20% XBH rate for the rest of his career.
   51. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4318951)
Davo, if you are really Darin's brother I feel bad about what I said in 36 (although I put in the edit before I saw your post in the other thread). I get so used to judging baseball players compared to MLBers, not the thousands they've outplayed to make it here in the first place. But if you are related to Joey Jeremiah, I take it all back!
   52. Bug Selig Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4318955)
0 of them have gone over the fence.


That fence is far away, man.
   53. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4318964)
But if you are related to Joey Jeremiah, I take it all back!


Man, I loved the original show when I was 10 years old.
   54. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4318968)
51. I am as much related to Darin Mastroianni as you are to Rance Mulliniks, I suspect.
   55. Greg K Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4318971)
I'd try to pick up Drew Stubbs for a song.

Sure, but please god not another one by Beyonce.
   56. spycake Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4318974)
Interesting list in #50.

Revere didn't have much (if any) XBH power in the minors though either.

Denard Span was pretty low-power (not as low as Revere, but low) and took a big step forward in power (and basically his all-around hitting) around his 24th birthday. (Although he looks to have regressed a bit after age 25)

Revere is 24, turns 25 in May 2013. I don't think he will ever hit with any power. He's really just a younger, faster (and better defensive?) Jason Tyner, when Tyner was at his late career ~85 OPS+ "peak" with the Twins.
   57. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: December 06, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4318983)
56--

Yeah. Over his last 1200 minor league PAs (high A, AA, and AAA ball), Revere had 40 extra-base hits.

I'm just not seeing any scenarios in which he becomes even an ML regular. I'd love to be wrong, since he's a lot of fun to watch, but I can't see it happening.
   58. Bourbon Samurai Posted: December 06, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4318995)
Aaron hicks is One of those baseball mogul guys I always need a second to remember isn't a huge star
   59. andrewberg Posted: December 06, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4319033)
Hicks, I think, really needs AAA time.


He has taken time to adapt to each level as he has been promoted. That does not strike me as the profile of a player who will do well being rushed.

51. I am as much related to Darin Mastroianni as you are to Rance Mulliniks, I suspect.


So what you're saying is that you ARE Darin Mastroianni posting under a poorly disguised pen name?
   60. Walt Davis Posted: December 06, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4319109)
Looking at it slightly differently, an XBH/PA rate between .03 and .04 seems the minimum in the expansion era. Dal Maxvill is the only guy with a reasonable career below .03. Bill North and Otis Nixon are the only CF I noticed, mostly 2B/SS/C. Anyway, 22 players with at least 3000 PA and a rate under .04. There are 69 players between .04 and .05 and a reasonable number of CF so that is where Revere needs to get. Tom Goodwin at 268/332/339 can be added to the Nixon comp.
   61. Walt Davis Posted: December 06, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4319164)
Sorry, unclear (and too late to edit) ... North and Nixon were the only CF I noticed between .03 and .04 XBH/PA.
   62. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4319168)
Most of his XBH are leg doubles. To be fair to Ben he's really good at stealing bases so a bunch of those singles end up with him at 2B.
   63. PreservedFish Posted: December 06, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4319170)
I was looking at similar numbers the other day when I wanted to see how powerless Josh Thole had been last year. I learned that Revere and his teammate Jamey Carroll were MILES ahead of every other qualified batter in the lowest isolated power title battle.
   64. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 06, 2012 at 10:19 PM (#4319192)
Worley and May for a return engagement with Big Ben Rivera? We need a 3B too, how about Kyle Kendrick for Kim Batiste?
   65. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:29 AM (#4319252)
Aaron hicks is One of those baseball mogul guys I always need a second to remember isn't a huge star


That game really had high expectations for Scott Moore for a few years.
   66. DA Baracus Posted: December 07, 2012 at 09:18 AM (#4319299)
So, I wondered, have there been other players who have started their career hitting for as little power as Revere (<13% XBH rate) who then started hitting for power later on? So I got a list of players who had seasons with XBH rates as low as Revere’s was. There are some interesting names on it:


Good stuff. I wouldn't hold my breath on Revere doing it. All of those except Kessinger showed some power in the minors, and Revere hasn't.

MiLB XBH%:

Revere 16
Puckett 23
Rose 29
Andrus 22
Vizquel 23
Kessinger 14

And at 25 I disagree with those who say he is "very young." At 25 (in May) you are about to enter your prime.
   67. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 07, 2012 at 10:05 AM (#4319315)
I guess this makes sense if the Phils go with Darin Ruf in LF and Domonic Brown in RF. Revere will have to catch the balls that Ruf can't get to and chase down the balls that Brown misplays. He'll be worn out by July.
   68. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: December 08, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4320133)
Re: Bourn comparisons.

The AP story went there.

In many ways, Revere is a younger, cheaper version of Bourn, who was drafted by Philadelphia and traded to Houston for Brad Lidge before the 2008 season when the Phillies won the World Series.
Both are speedy, small and left-handed hitters. Revere is listed at 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, two inches shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Bourn.
Bourn had a .261 average, .325 on-base percentage, 61 extra-base hits and stole 102 bases in his first two full seasons -- both with the Astros. Revere had a .281 average, .322 on-base percentage, 33 extra-base hits and 74 steals in his first two full seasons. Perhaps the biggest difference between the two is bat control. Bourn struck out 251 times to only 100 for Revere.
A former first-round pick by the Twins, Revere is a .278 career hitter with 64 RBIs in his two-plus seasons with Minnesota. He has zero home runs in the majors in 989 at-bats and only five in 2,573 professional at-bats.


I put the important parts in bold.
   69. steagles Posted: December 08, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4320177)
I put the important parts in bold.
not to defend this trade, because i'm still not much of a fan of it, but bourn was 25 and 26 in the 2 years that excerpt refers to, whereas revere will only turn 25 this season. revere now has ~1000 PAs, but at the same age, bourn had only 150.
   70. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:24 AM (#4320200)
At age 23 Bourn had 22.6% EBH/H in four minor league seasons while Revere had 15.8% EBH/H

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