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Monday, November 26, 2018

Thibs’ Hall of Fame Tracker

Primate Thibs’ indispensable Hall of Fame tool is back for another year.

SoSH U at work Posted: November 26, 2018 at 03:02 PM | 493 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, son of gizmo

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   201. bbmck Posted: December 01, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5792820)
Another player being trotted out to play RF is penalized by WAR. 1998 Walker is a 6.8 WAR player assuming 155 games is expected by playing 25 fewer games he gets 5.7 WAR since it's basically a counting stat. If you prefer you can additionally penalize, -1 WAR per 155 games for players being trotted out in RF that are counted against Larry.

22, 18, 12, 17, 6 (strike), 7 (strike), 72, 2, 25, 28, 68, 13, 19, 12, 73, 55 = 449 games below 155 or -2.9 WAR for his -1 WAR replacement as opposed to 0 WAR. The last two seasons are Age 37 and 38 and he probably shouldn't be expected to play 155 games, maybe one injury is "allowed" so you shouldn't count his 72 games missed and so on. But it's not much of a drop off, 69.8 WAR instead of 72.7, 66.9 if you want to use a -2 WAR per 155 games replacement.
   202. QLE Posted: December 01, 2018 at 01:30 PM (#5792828)
Bill Livingston not voting is the equivalent, for Mussina and Martinez, of gaining about three ballots. That's pretty useful, especially for Mussina.


Not really, as can be demonstrated by some simple math.

Assuming that 422 ballots are cast (the same number as last year):

A player who received 316 votes would have a percentage of 74.8815%- just missing HOF induction.

If they still get 316 votes, but only 421 ballots are cast, the percentage becomes 75.0594%- just enough for induction.

If the vote stayed at 422 ballots, however, but 319 votes were cast for our player, it becomes 75.5924%- substantially more than than if one less person voted.

Essentially, the issue involves conceptualizing the 75% level of support needed- when the number of ballots cast is as high as it is, while it is true that the level will need to be hit, any individual ballot will not swing it by that large an amount.
   203. Baldrick Posted: December 01, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5792844)
It's like adding three NEW votes, but it's not like flipping three no votes to yes.

But it's pretty obvious it's not the latter, because flipping three nos to yeses is five extra actions beyond removing one no vote.
   204. Baldrick Posted: December 01, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5792845)
My main quibble with Walker is his injury record. Yeah when healthy was pretty otherworldly, but shouldn't having to trot out lesser players to RF when he is on the DL not be factored into the calculus somehow?

This is literally what WAR does.
   205. Adam S Posted: December 01, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5792900)
My favorite Placido Polanco fact is that his nickname was Polly - and he sometimes used it in media interviews.

As for Madden, I regret clicking on the link. Clubhouse leader for worst HOF column of the year.
   206. The Duke Posted: December 01, 2018 at 04:53 PM (#5792908)
So maddens ballot is schilling, Rivera, Kent, vizquel, Polanco?

That’s different
   207. Ryan Thibs Posted: December 01, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5792909)
So maddens ballot is schilling, Rivera, Kent, vizquel, Polanco?


It's a partial ballot so far. He also voted Edgar and McGriff last year, and presumably will again. He didn't mention Doc in the column, but I'd guess there's a decent chance he votes for him too.
   208. homerwannabee Posted: December 02, 2018 at 09:54 AM (#5793124)
Why isn't this thread pinned yet by Baseball think factory? This is by far it's most popular sports thread, and yet it gets ignored. Unbelievable.
   209. SoSH U at work Posted: December 02, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5793146)

Why isn't this thread pinned yet by Baseball think factory? This is by far it's most popular sports thread, and yet it gets ignored. Unbelievable.


It is pinned. It's just not pinned the way you want it.

I initially pinned it to the top of Featured, but was asked to pin it to the top of Newstand (see Posts 2-3), which is where it is right now. If you click on Newstand, it's going to always be at the top of the page until I change it.

If there's a way of pinning it to both, I'm not aware of it.

The problem is we access BTF in different ways.
   210. Adam S Posted: December 02, 2018 at 11:32 AM (#5793147)
It is pinned at the top of the article list and has been for ages. If you also want it bookmarked on your own sidebar, you need to click bookmark (next to the number of comments in the thread header) yourself.
   211. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5793149)
My main quibble with Walker is his injury record. Yeah when healthy was pretty otherworldly, but shouldn't having to trot out lesser players to RF when he is on the DL not be factored into the calculus somehow?


I fully agree with this take, others don't. Ultimately I think Walker is probably good enough to cover that gap difference, but Edgar, Walker and Ortiz are all very borderline for me.
   212. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5793150)
This is literally what WAR does.


Not really, not when you are looking at career war and using that as an argument by creating a border of 60 is in etc.

And of course there is only so much you can help a team win while in the lineup and you are hurting the team when you are not in the lineup since they are dedicating a significant portion to a superstar for salary purposes that can't be made up by calling up minor league replacement player.
   213. The Duke Posted: December 02, 2018 at 12:35 PM (#5793160)
Ultimately, showing up every day is the biggest skill set for the Hall. Players who lose a lot of time force weaker players into the game and damage their teams’ chances. It’s why people can’t understand vizquel’s candidacy and why Molina will create the same hand-wringing. The writers put a high value on showing up year after year.
   214. bachslunch Posted: December 02, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5793163)
@213: that’s only true up to a point. Didn’t seem to help folks like Harold Baines, Rusty Staub, or Graig Nettles much. Though Vizquel and Molina have done so at premium positions, where longevity is fairly unusual.
   215. Sunday silence Posted: December 02, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5793201)
Rabbit Maranville says 'put me in.'
   216. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 02, 2018 at 06:48 PM (#5793249)
Flip Bondy adds Edgar, Schilling & Sheffield to past votes for Bonds, Clemens, Mussina, Sosa & Vizquel, as well as 1st-timers Halladay & Rivera, while dropping Manny. That's 4 pickups for Edgar in 13 votes - he needs 20, although that may not account for any of his voters no longer voting. Edgar & Rivera are at 100% in the still early voting, consistent with the predictions, here & elsewhere, that they would lead the voting.
   217. Master of the Horse Posted: December 02, 2018 at 07:17 PM (#5793252)
I thought this was cool though it's Wikipedia so who knows if it's bullshit

In August 2016, Youkilis, along with his brother Scott, purchased the Los Gatos Brewing Company, and re-opened it as the Loma Brewing Company, a brewpub in Los Gatos, California.[151][152] The brewery was subsequently named as the 2017 California Commercial Beer Brewery of the Year
   218. Rally Posted: December 03, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5793312)
And of course there is only so much you can help a team win while in the lineup and you are hurting the team when you are not in the lineup since they are dedicating a significant portion to a superstar for salary purposes that can't be made up by calling up minor league replacement player.


Compare Larry Walker, 2002, to Bobby Abreu 1999. Both have 6.1 WAR. Larry played 136 games, Bobby 152 and had 109 more PA. Does this make Bobby more valuable? Seems to me that it just means Larry did more per game when he was in the lineup. 4.4 wins above average to 4.1.

If the team gets replacement level play for the extra 16 games, that should make them even. If they are not even it just means that replacement level is set wrong.
   219. Ziggy's screen name Posted: December 03, 2018 at 12:39 PM (#5793397)
I want to say that Walker would be more valuable in that scenario. Worst case scenario they call up a replacement-level player from AAA and match the seasonal production from Abreu. But they can also trade for Jason Bay (or someone); if they do then they get better production from the position than Abreu gave his team. Basically, they have an option in a way that Abreu's team doesn't.

Sure they'll have to pay in talent for Bay, but presumably that's moving wins from the future to the present. If present wins are more valuable to you, you can do that; again, not an option if you've got Abreu out there for the full season.

I'm not claiming that this is any problem with WAR (or that the replacement level needs to be adjusted), just that what WAR measures isn't value, it's, well, wins above replacement.
   220. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 03, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5793435)
I want to say that Walker would be more valuable in that scenario. Worst case scenario they call up a replacement-level player from AAA and match the seasonal production from Abreu.

No, no, no. Worse case is a guy they think is replacement level coming up and playing to -1 WAR or something like that. When you start out a 0 exp. value, a lot of room for negative outcomes.
   221. bbmck Posted: December 03, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5793446)
2002 Rockies Batting Order (that batting order position on the season for the Rockies)
Juan Pierre 69 OPS+ (281/329/348)
Juan Uribe 56 OPS+/Brent Butler 72 OPS+ (257/309/378)
Larry Walker 151 OPS+ (335/412/606)
Todd Helton 148 OPS+ (309/411/522)
Todd Zeile 93 OPS+ (256/333/409)
Todd Hollandsworth 105 OPS+ (286/343/475)
(210/267/320)
(269/315/392)
(257/301/358)

Perceptively Walker being "only" as good as 1999 Abreu but more durable is a benefit because unless Helton and Walker are both in the line-up this team looks like toast considering those slash lines include playing in a 115 hitters park for half your games in a 4.46 runs allowed per game league. If a CF misses games it's fairly common for the replacement level player to play the corner. Without replacement level being set wrong there are still ways it's arguably more valuable to have 152 games of 4.1 WAA play vs 136 games of 4.4 WAA play and since it's arguable there is a credible basis for the opposite perspective.

If someone feels that the 152 games are more valuable simply set a -1 WAR (or whatever) replacement level to account for in theory Helton being more comfortable hitting clean-up and being moved to 3rd when Walker sits or when Rick Monday misses games and Reggie Jackson has to play CF or whatever other negative you perceive to a star player being absent. Instead of just going "not durable, no check mark" adjust career or season totals in a reasonable manner because that -2 WAR replacement player getting 16 games still only means about -0.2 WAR for Walker relative to Abreu.
   222. Bigotis49 Posted: December 03, 2018 at 01:52 PM (#5793459)
One other comment on Walker v. Abreu. It's not only the cost of a replacement player for Walker. It's the effect on the roster. If he goes on the DL, then fine, you can replace him for 15 days. But at least some of Walker's injuries were of the "day-to-day" variety. So not only are you using a replacement-level player, but you're playing a man down. Which of course hurts the manager's strategy for the game, but also makes any additional injury more of a negative.
   223. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 03, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5793460)
I want to say that Walker would be more valuable in that scenario. Worst case scenario they call up a replacement-level player from AAA and match the seasonal production from Abreu.


No, no, no. Worse case is a guy they think is replacement level coming up and playing to -1 WAR or something like that. When you start out a 0 exp. value, a lot of room for negative outcomes.

There's also the risk that the team doesn't call up anyone at all. If Walker's extra games missed occur in one block, then sure the team DLs him and calls up his replacement. But if the Rockies sit Walker for a few days so he can rest a tender ankle, they probably just play short-handed that series.

edit: beverage for bigotis.
   224. SoSH U at work Posted: December 03, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5793463)
edit: beverage for bigotis.


Oh, it's Big Otis. I thought he was a 49-year-old bigot.

   225. Rally Posted: December 03, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5793467)
No, no, no. Worse case is a guy they think is replacement level coming up and playing to -1 WAR or something like that. When you start out a 0 exp. value, a lot of room for negative outcomes.


But you might also call up a replacement player and he plays well, +1 WAR or something, and you didn't even have to trade other talent to get him. There's a whole range of outcomes centered around the 0 WAR mean.

One other comment on Walker v. Abreu. It's not only the cost of a replacement player for Walker. It's the effect on the roster. If he goes on the DL, then fine, you can replace him for 15 days. But at least some of Walker's injuries were of the "day-to-day" variety. So not only are you using a replacement-level player, but you're playing a man down. Which of course hurts the manager's strategy for the game, but also makes any additional injury more of a negative.


That's a good point. Walker's sitting the bench and can't play at all that day. Backup OF is in right field. He might be your best PH option, but now he's not available for that, so you have to go to the next guy down the list. And maybe you won't pinch hit in a spot because you're worried about running out of players later. Or you are aggressive in PH situations, then you actually do run out of players.

So how many runs is that worth? Would you prefer a durable 5 WAR player over a 130 game, 6 WAR guy? Probably not. Maybe 5.5? 5.8?
   226. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 03, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5793470)

But you might also call up a replacement player and he plays well, +1 WAR or something, and you didn't even have to trade other talent to get him. There's a whole range of outcomes centered around the 0 WAR mean.


Sure. But the statement was that "worst case" was 0 WAR. It simply isn't.
   227. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 03, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5793473)
No, no, no. Worse case is a guy they think is replacement level coming up and playing to -1 WAR or something like that. When you start out a 0 exp. value, a lot of room for negative outcomes.

Or the replacement level player could play to +1 WAR. The expectation would still be 0, otherwise replacement level is being set too high, as someone noted.

I do think, however, there is some friction cost in the roster spot usage that WAR doesn't fully take into account. If Walker goes on the DL you can call up someone else, but it may take a couple of days to get the guy there. And certainly it takes some time to trade for Jason Bay (or whoever).

Of course, every team has backup outfielders/bench players who are there to step in for a few games since very few players are in the lineup for 162 games per season. However, if Walker misses 30-40 games with various ailments spread out over the course of the season but rarely/never goes on the DL, that's probably costing you roster flexibility as your backup is now starting and you've lost a bench bat or your insurance in case one of your other outfielders also needs to miss a few games.

EDIT: Coke to Bigotis and others.
   228. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2018 at 01:07 AM (#5793641)
My main quibble with Walker is his injury record. Yeah when healthy was pretty otherworldly, but shouldn't having to trot out lesser players to RF when he is on the DL not be factored into the calculus somehow?

Not really ... or more precisely, not anymore than he is already being "punished" for limited playing time. Reduced playing time hurts Rrep. But in that reduced playing time, he put up 73 WAR and 48 WAA. That his 8000ish PAs were spread out over 16 "seasons" instead of 13-14 is pretty damn trivial -- yes there were seasons he could have helped his team more if he'd been healthy but, compared to another 8000ish PA player, he helped his team win in 2-3 years when the other guy didn't help at all.

He also gets dinged by WAR7 in JAWS since his 7 best seasons feature fewer PA (and therefore fewer Rrep) than similar quality players' peaks. By JAWS he is somewhat less impressive, just behind Heilman, just ahead of Waner and Crawford ... at least until you see he's ahead of Gwynn by WAR, WAR7 and WAA; well ahead of Winfield and way ahead of Vlad.

Vlad's a interesting comp. He crammed his key 8100 PAs into 13 seasons ... and was 15 WAR short of Walker's career. Just comping those same ages, Walker does indeed come in 2 full seasons of PA behind (about 6800) ... and has 6 more WAR. Vlad added next to nothing outside of that (1000 PA, 2 WAR) while Walker added 1300 PA, 9 WAR, 5 WAA. So the two seasons he "missed" from 23-35, he more than made up for.

So ... we should ... punish Walker by assuming that his teams trotted out players who amassed -5 WAR in two seasons worth of play over those 13 years (that would be historically awful) and that somehow it's his fault that his GMs were so incompetent ... and then, relative to Vlad, give him no credit for the "extra" 1300 PA and 9 WAR. By missing two seasons worth of play, he should be punished to the tune of 14 WAR? Tough crowd. And even if we did that, he's the equivalent of Vlad.

Or to put it another way, a healthy Walker puts up 90 WAR. That he's being evaluated at 72 WAR is what he gets for missing time. If you supported Gwynn, Raines, Edgar or Vlad and plan to support Beltran, Walker should be a no-brainer. He was the greater player and he produced more value.
   229. gabrielthursday Posted: December 04, 2018 at 06:28 PM (#5793977)
Not really, not when you are looking at career war and using that as an argument by creating a border of 60 is in etc.
60 is definitely too low for presumptive admittance. My rule of thumb is that if a player is above 70 WAR, the sceptics have a large burden to discharge to show he doesn't belong in the Hall; below 60, and there has to be something otherwise remarkable to merit inclusion. 60-70 WAR is where the really interesting discussions take place, imho.
   230. QLE Posted: December 05, 2018 at 12:30 AM (#5794051)
60 is definitely too low for presumptive admittance. My rule of thumb is that if a player is above 70 WAR, the sceptics have a large burden to discharge to show he doesn't belong in the Hall; below 60, and there has to be something otherwise remarkable to merit inclusion. 60-70 WAR is where the really interesting discussions take place, imho.


In my case, I have a bit more of a peak orientation than many here, but my comparison of my peak calculations with career WAR have led to the following calculations:

1) Indeed, everyone with 70+ WAR among the position players merits HOF induction- even the relatively weakest among them is over the line.

2) For players below 50 career WAR, there are some who clearly merit HOF induction, fitting into several categories- catchers, nineteenth-century greats, players affected by the color line, and players who, for various reasons (chiefly military service) have careers for which WAR is misleading. However, this is chiefly historical at this point, as only the occasional catcher should be expected to have this as an issue among contemporary players.

3) It is between 50 and 70 WAR that much of the debate takes place- there are players with over 60 WAR I am sure don't belong, and players not much over 50 WAR that I feel clearly do. These are the folk whose records should be examined carefully, as doing so will point better to how these folk do or do not merit induction. These, finally, are also folk for whom I expect no consensus- I'd be really surprised if anyone here had the same opinion I had on every position player in this category, and there are some for whom I still can't make up my mind even after careful consideration.

I don't expect everyone to agree with this logic, but I hope noting it will help make it more understandable.
   231. bobm Posted: December 05, 2018 at 08:06 AM (#5794063)
3) It is between 50 and 70 WAR that much of the debate takes place- there are players with over 60 WAR I am sure don't belong, and players not much over 50 WAR that I feel clearly do. These are the folk whose records should be examined carefully, as doing so will point better to how these folk do or do not merit induction. These, finally, are also folk for whom I expect no consensus- I'd be really surprised if anyone here had the same opinion I had on every position player in this category, and there are some for whom I still can't make up my mind even after careful consideration.

Hall of Famers only, 50-70 WAR sorted by WAA:

                                           
Rk              Player WAA/pos WAR/pos OPS+
1         Lou Boudreau    42.2    63.0  120
2         Ed Delahanty    41.9    69.7  152
3       Billy Hamilton    39.5    63.4  141
4      Jackie Robinson    39.3    61.4  132
5        Ryne Sandberg    38.5    68.0  114
6           Joe Gordon    37.2    57.2  120
7       Hank Greenberg    37.0    57.6  158
8       Home Run Baker    36.9    62.8  135
9           Tony Gwynn    36.8    69.2  132
10         Mike Piazza    35.9    59.6  142
11          Joe Cronin    35.9    66.4  119
12          Tim Raines    35.4    69.4  123
13        Carlton Fisk    35.3    68.5  117
14         Duke Snider    35.3    66.3  140
15         Fred Clarke    35.2    67.9  133
16          Al Simmons    34.8    68.8  133
17          Yogi Berra    34.0    59.4  125
18      Ivan Rodriguez    33.4    68.7  106
19      Roberto Alomar    32.6    67.1  116
20          Bill Terry    31.8    54.2  136
21       Pee Wee Reese    31.6    66.3   99
22         Bill Dickey    31.6    55.8  127
23      Willie McCovey    30.5    64.5  147
24        Goose Goslin    30.5    66.1  128
25       Jesse Burkett    30.5    62.7  140
26          Joe Tinker    30.4    53.1   96
27         Elmer Flick    29.8    53.2  149
28      Gabby Hartnett    29.7    53.4  126
29   Vladimir Guerrero    29.5    59.4  140
30     Mickey Cochrane    29.5    52.1  129
31        Andre Dawson    29.2    64.8  119
32        Craig Biggio    29.1    65.5  112
33      Richie Ashburn    28.7    63.9  111
34         Ernie Banks    28.5    67.5  122
35          Zack Wheat    28.4    60.2  129
36         Joe Medwick    28.2    55.6  134
37    Harmon Killebrew    28.1    60.4  143
38        Eddie Murray    27.4    68.7  129
39      Billy Williams    27.1    63.7  133
40         Bobby Doerr    27.0    51.2  115
41     Willie Stargell    26.6    57.5  147
42        Billy Herman    26.6    54.8  112
43       Jimmy Collins    26.4    53.3  113
44        Jake Beckley    26.4    61.6  125
45       Kirby Puckett    25.7    51.1  124
46          Bid McPhee    25.0    52.6  107
47       Dave Winfield    24.0    64.2  130
48        Tony Lazzeri    23.6    50.0  121
49          Joe Kelley    23.2    50.7  134
50          Joe Sewell    23.1    53.7  108
51      Enos Slaughter    22.5    55.3  124
52       George Sisler    22.5    54.0  125
53         Jim ORourke    21.3    51.5  133
54           Max Carey    21.1    54.0  108
55       Willie Keeler    20.8    54.1  127
56       Luis Aparicio    20.5    55.8   82
57      Orlando Cepeda    18.2    50.2  133
58          Tony Perez    18.0    54.0  122
59            Sam Rice    15.7    52.7  112
60        Harry Hooper    15.5    53.4  114


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/5/2018.

Not HOF and not active, 50-70 WAR sorted by WAA:

                                              
Rk                 Player WAA/pos WAR/pos OPS+
1             Chase Utley    41.7    65.4  117
2    Shoeless Joe Jackson    40.3    62.2  170
3          Edgar Martinez    38.6    68.4  147
4            Kenny Lofton    38.4    68.3  107
5            Reggie Smith    37.5    64.6  137
6            Mark McGwire    37.1    62.2  163
7         Willie Randolph    36.1    65.9  104
8          Jack Glasscock    36.1    62.0  112
9            Andruw Jones    36.0    62.8  111
10          Manny Ramirez    35.7    69.4  154
11            Jim Edmonds    35.0    60.4  132
12         Carlos Beltran    34.1    69.8  119
13           Dwight Evans    33.0    67.1  127
14             Dick Allen    32.9    58.7  156
15            Todd Helton    32.8    61.2  133
16          Graig Nettles    32.8    68.0  110
17              Sal Bando    32.7    61.5  119
18             Buddy Bell    32.6    66.3  109
19        Keith Hernandez    32.0    60.4  128
20            Bobby Bonds    31.9    57.9  129
21              Ken Boyer    31.5    62.8  116
22           Sherry Magee    31.3    59.3  137
23            Bob Johnson    30.9    57.3  139
24           David Wright    29.9    50.4  133
25             Chet Lemon    29.7    55.6  121
26             Will Clark    29.1    56.5  137
27               Jim Wynn    28.8    55.9  129
28          Robin Ventura    28.5    56.1  114
29          Lance Berkman    28.4    52.1  144
30             Sammy Sosa    28.2    58.6  128
31            Bobby Abreu    28.1    60.0  128
32            John Olerud    27.5    58.2  129
33              Joe Mauer    27.4    55.1  124
34            Brian Giles    27.4    51.1  136
35          Minnie Minoso    27.2    50.5  130
36              Joe Torre    26.8    57.6  129
37              Jeff Kent    26.6    55.4  123
38           Willie Davis    26.4    60.7  106
39                Ron Cey    26.2    53.8  121
40           Cesar Cedeno    26.2    52.8  123
41         Gary Sheffield    26.0    60.5  140
42              Norm Cash    25.9    52.0  139
43             Jack Clark    25.7    53.1  137
44              Stan Hack    24.8    52.6  119
45              Jose Cruz    24.7    54.4  120
46          Mark Teixeira    24.4    51.8  126
47          Darrell Evans    24.3    58.8  119
48              Fred Lynn    24.2    50.2  129
49            Toby Harrah    22.3    51.4  114
50          Tony Phillips    21.6    50.9  109
51        Bert Campaneris    21.4    53.1   89
52          Brian Downing    21.1    51.5  122
53            Bob Elliott    20.9    50.4  124
54            David Ortiz    20.2    55.3  141
55          Luis Gonzalez    19.9    51.8  119
56           Fred McGriff    19.9    52.6  134
57           Jason Giambi    19.6    50.5  139
58           Johnny Damon    19.4    56.4  104
59            Ted Simmons    19.0    50.3  118
60            Vada Pinson    16.6    54.3  111
61           Torii Hunter    15.8    50.1  110


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/5/2018.
   232. bobm Posted: December 05, 2018 at 08:07 AM (#5794065)
All 50-70 WAR, sorted by WAA:

                                               
Rk                  Player WAA/pos WAR/pos OPS+
1               Mike Trout    48.7    64.3  175
2             Lou Boudreau    42.2    63.0  120
3             Ed Delahanty    41.9    69.7  152
4              Chase Utley    41.7    65.4  117
5     Shoeless Joe Jackson    40.3    62.2  170
6           Billy Hamilton    39.5    63.4  141
7          Jackie Robinson    39.3    61.4  132
8           Edgar Martinez    38.6    68.4  147
9            Ryne Sandberg    38.5    68.0  114
10              Joey Votto    38.4    58.8  155
11            Kenny Lofton    38.4    68.3  107
12           Robinson Cano    38.2    69.2  127
13            Reggie Smith    37.5    64.6  137
14              Joe Gordon    37.2    57.2  120
15          Miguel Cabrera    37.1    69.4  151
16            Mark McGwire    37.1    62.2  163
17          Hank Greenberg    37.0    57.6  158
18          Home Run Baker    36.9    62.8  135
19              Tony Gwynn    36.8    69.2  132
20         Willie Randolph    36.1    65.9  104
21          Jack Glasscock    36.1    62.0  112
22            Andruw Jones    36.0    62.8  111
23             Mike Piazza    35.9    59.6  142
24              Joe Cronin    35.9    66.4  119
25           Manny Ramirez    35.7    69.4  154
26              Tim Raines    35.4    69.4  123
27            Carlton Fisk    35.3    68.5  117
28             Duke Snider    35.3    66.3  140
29             Fred Clarke    35.2    67.9  133
30             Jim Edmonds    35.0    60.4  132
31              Al Simmons    34.8    68.8  133
32          Carlos Beltran    34.1    69.8  119
33              Yogi Berra    34.0    59.4  125
34          Ivan Rodriguez    33.4    68.7  106
35            Dwight Evans    33.0    67.1  127
36              Dick Allen    32.9    58.7  156
37             Todd Helton    32.8    61.2  133
38           Graig Nettles    32.8    68.0  110
39               Sal Bando    32.7    61.5  119
40          Roberto Alomar    32.6    67.1  116
41              Buddy Bell    32.6    66.3  109
42         Keith Hernandez    32.0    60.4  128
43             Bobby Bonds    31.9    57.9  129
44              Bill Terry    31.8    54.2  136
45           Pee Wee Reese    31.6    66.3   99
46             Bill Dickey    31.6    55.8  127
47               Ken Boyer    31.5    62.8  116
48            Sherry Magee    31.3    59.3  137
49             Bob Johnson    30.9    57.3  139
50             Ian Kinsler    30.6    57.3  108
51          Willie McCovey    30.5    64.5  147
52            Goose Goslin    30.5    66.1  128
53           Jesse Burkett    30.5    62.7  140
54              Joe Tinker    30.4    53.1   96
55            David Wright    29.9    50.4  133
56          Dustin Pedroia    29.8    52.1  114
57             Elmer Flick    29.8    53.2  149
58              Chet Lemon    29.7    55.6  121
59          Gabby Hartnett    29.7    53.4  126
60       Vladimir Guerrero    29.5    59.4  140
61         Mickey Cochrane    29.5    52.1  129
62            Andre Dawson    29.2    64.8  119
63            Craig Biggio    29.1    65.5  112
64              Will Clark    29.1    56.5  137
65           Evan Longoria    28.8    51.9  122
66                Jim Wynn    28.8    55.9  129
67          Richie Ashburn    28.7    63.9  111
68           Robin Ventura    28.5    56.1  114
69             Ernie Banks    28.5    67.5  122
70           Lance Berkman    28.4    52.1  144
71              Zack Wheat    28.4    60.2  129
72              Sammy Sosa    28.2    58.6  128
73             Joe Medwick    28.2    55.6  134
74             Bobby Abreu    28.1    60.0  128
75        Harmon Killebrew    28.1    60.4  143
76             John Olerud    27.5    58.2  129
77               Joe Mauer    27.4    55.1  124
78             Brian Giles    27.4    51.1  136
79            Eddie Murray    27.4    68.7  129
80           Minnie Minoso    27.2    50.5  130
81          Billy Williams    27.1    63.7  133
82             Bobby Doerr    27.0    51.2  115
83               Joe Torre    26.8    57.6  129
84               Jeff Kent    26.6    55.4  123
85         Willie Stargell    26.6    57.5  147
86            Billy Herman    26.6    54.8  112
87            Willie Davis    26.4    60.7  106
88           Jimmy Collins    26.4    53.3  113
89            Jake Beckley    26.4    61.6  125
90                 Ron Cey    26.2    53.8  121
91            Cesar Cedeno    26.2    52.8  123
92          Gary Sheffield    26.0    60.5  140
93               Norm Cash    25.9    52.0  139
94           Kirby Puckett    25.7    51.1  124
95              Jack Clark    25.7    53.1  137
96              Bid McPhee    25.0    52.6  107
97               Stan Hack    24.8    52.6  119
98               Jose Cruz    24.7    54.4  120
99           Mark Teixeira    24.4    51.8  126
100          Darrell Evans    24.3    58.8  119
101              Fred Lynn    24.2    50.2  129
102          Dave Winfield    24.0    64.2  130
103          Ichiro Suzuki    23.8    59.3  107
104           Tony Lazzeri    23.6    50.0  121
105             Joe Kelley    23.2    50.7  134
106             Joe Sewell    23.1    53.7  108
107         Enos Slaughter    22.5    55.3  124
108          George Sisler    22.5    54.0  125
109            Toby Harrah    22.3    51.4  114
110          Tony Phillips    21.6    50.9  109
111        Bert Campaneris    21.4    53.1   89
112            Jim ORourke    21.3    51.5  133
113          Brian Downing    21.1    51.5  122
114              Max Carey    21.1    54.0  108
115            Bob Elliott    20.9    50.4  124
116          Willie Keeler    20.8    54.1  127
117          Luis Aparicio    20.5    55.8   82
118            David Ortiz    20.2    55.3  141
119          Luis Gonzalez    19.9    51.8  119
120           Fred McGriff    19.9    52.6  134
121           Jason Giambi    19.6    50.5  139
122           Johnny Damon    19.4    56.4  104
123            Ted Simmons    19.0    50.3  118
124         Orlando Cepeda    18.2    50.2  133
125             Tony Perez    18.0    54.0  122
126            Vada Pinson    16.6    54.3  111
127           Torii Hunter    15.8    50.1  110
128               Sam Rice    15.7    52.7  112
129           Harry Hooper    15.5    53.4  114


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/5/2018.
   233. villageidiom Posted: December 05, 2018 at 08:27 AM (#5794070)
I thought this was cool though it's Wikipedia so who knows if it's bullshit
It is correct.
   234. bachslunch Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:09 AM (#5794093)
Wonder how many HoFers have WAR under 50.0? My guess the list will be populated with Frisch crony mistakes and other Veteran's Committee errors, crappy pitchers like Morris and Hunter and Pennock, relievers, some 19th century players, and a few weird odds and ends like Schalk.
   235. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:12 AM (#5794096)

Not really ... or more precisely, not anymore than he is already being "punished" for limited playing time. Reduced playing time hurts Rrep. But in that reduced playing time, he put up 73 WAR and 48 WAA. That his 8000ish PAs were spread out over 16 "seasons" instead of 13-14 is pretty damn trivial -- yes there were seasons he could have helped his team more if he'd been healthy but, compared to another 8000ish PA player, he helped his team win in 2-3 years when the other guy didn't help at all.

I think the question is how often did it effectively require 2 roster spots to get that 73 WAR because you had to have a backup on hand to take Walker's place (i.e. how often was he on the roster but not actually available to play)? I generally agree with you that for a guy of Walker's quality there's no way this should be a big enough factor to keep him out of the Hall. But for someone who is more borderline I could see it being a consideration.

For what it's worth, Walker's durability looks worse than it really was due to the strike years. He played over 90% of team games in 1994-1995. He only missed 23 games in those two years, but if you just glance at his stat line it looks like he missed ~90.
   236. JL72 Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5794103)
Not HOF and not active, 50-70 WAR sorted by WAA:


I was all ready to tell bobm that his search was messed up because Whitaker does not show up. Realizing that was far less likely then my memory being wrong, I double checked and confirmed that Sweet Lou reached 75.1 WAR.

And is still not in the HOF.
   237. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 05, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5794128)
Looks like the lowest WAR for anyone elected by the BBWAA (position players) is Roy Campanella, who, of course, missed time from the front end of his career due to ww2 and the color line, and the end of his career due to being paralyzed in a car accident. I want to say Rabbit Maranville and Jim Rice are the only two other position players with fewer than 50 war that were elected by the writers. There are 41 total position players with less than 50 WAR in the HOF.

Edit: only 17 pitchers with less than 50 WAR in the Hall. John Montgomery Ward shows up on both lists of under 50, but, combined he has 62.3 WAR. Lowest 3 pitchers are Sutter, Fingers, and Hoffman.
   238. bobm Posted: December 05, 2018 at 11:21 AM (#5794131)
[237]

There are 41 total position players with less than 50 WAR in the HOF.

Sorted by WAA:

                                                                  
Player               WAA/pos WAR/pos OPS+   Age    PA          Pos
Larry Doby              30.6    49.6  136 23-35  6299    *89/H7436
Frank Chance            28.2    45.6  135 21-37  5103     *32/9H78
Buck Ewing              28.2    47.7  129 20-37  5772   2395/46871
Ralph Kiner             25.7    49.4  149 23-32  6256       *7/83H
Ernie Lombardi          24.4    45.9  126 23-39  6352          *2H
Johnny Evers            24.2    47.7  106 20-47  7212      *4/56H9
Hughie Jennings         23.3    42.3  118 22-49  5648    *63/495H7
Dave Bancroft           23.2    48.6   98 24-39  8249      *6/H457
Roger Bresnahan         23.0    40.9  127 18-36  5375 *28/H5934716
King Kelly              22.9    44.3  139 20-35  6457  *92/5643187
Earl Averill            22.8    48.0  133 27-39  7221       *8/7H9
Travis Jackson          22.7    44.0  102 18-32  6681      *65/H94
Sam Thompson            22.6    44.4  147 25-46  6525       *9/783
Deacon White            22.1    45.7  127 23-42  6973  *5293/47861
Hack Wilson             21.4    38.9  144 23-34  5556      *879/H4
Kiki Cuyler             21.2    46.7  125 22-39  8100        987/H
Phil Rizzuto            21.0    40.8   93 23-38  6719        *6/H4
Edd Roush               20.9    45.3  126 20-38  8148     *8H/7394
Chuck Klein             20.5    43.6  137 23-39  7171      *97H/83
Earle Combs             19.6    42.5  125 25-36  6513       *87/H9
Jim Rice                18.9    47.7  128 21-36  9058      *7D/9H8
Nellie Fox              18.3    49.0   93 19-37 10351       *4/H53
Hugh Duffy              18.0    43.1  123 21-39  7841    879/64532
Ross Youngs             15.7    32.2  130 20-29  5336      *9/4H87
Roy Campanella          15.6    34.1  123 26-35  4815         *2/H
Heinie Manush           15.5    45.8  121 21-37  8419      *78H9/3
George Kell             15.1    37.4  112 20-34  7529     *5/3H794
Chick Hafey             13.8    30.1  133 21-34  5115        *789H
John Ward               11.1    34.3   92 18-34  8114     64189/57
Pie Traynor             10.2    36.3  107 21-38  8297       *5/6H3
Freddie Lindstrom        9.3    28.4  110 18-30  6108    *587/9H46
Jim Bottomley            9.0    35.3  125 22-37  8354        *3H/4
Red Schoendienst         8.5    42.3   94 22-40  9224     *4H7/658
Lou Brock                8.4    45.3  109 22-40 11240        *79H8
Rabbit Maranville        7.6    42.9   82 20-43 11254       *64/H5
Rick Ferrell             5.9    29.8   95 23-41  7076         *2/H
Bill Mazeroski           5.0    36.5   84 19-35  8379        *4/H5
High Pockets Kelly       4.6    25.3  109 19-36  6570   *34/H79851
Ray Schalk               4.5    28.6   83 19-36  6239         *2/H
Tommy McCarthy           0.2    16.2  102 20-32  5739    *97/45861
Lloyd Waner             -2.1    24.1   99 21-39  8334     *8H7/945


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Generated 12/5/2018.
   239. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 05, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5794140)
apparently, Pie Traynor was elected by the Writers also.

Is there anyone else for whom the stories written about their exemplary defense are so far off from what statistics show?

from his sabr bio:

From 1923 until injuries started to take their toll around 1929, Traynor probably was the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He was 6 feet tall, which was large for a third baseman of his era, but very agile. He was brilliant at charging bunts and weakly hit groundballs, and had a knack for moving quickly to his right and making backhanded stops. "Pie had the quickest hands, the quickest arm of any third baseman," said former teammate Charlie Grimm. "And from any angle he threw strikes."13 The Cubs' Billy Herman agreed. "Most marvelous pair of hands you'd ever want to see." To columnist Red Smith, watching Traynor play third was "like looking over daVinci's shoulder." Traynor led National League third basemen in assists three times, putouts seven times, and double plays four times



bWAR rfield + rpos: 23 (-32 rfield)
fWAR defense (includes pos adj): 19.4
   240. PreservedFish Posted: December 05, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5794141)
I don't even know how they do rfield for the 20's.
   241. bachslunch Posted: December 05, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5794142)
Looks like Lou Brock and Ralph Kiner were also put in via the writers ballot as well as Traynor, Rice, and Campanella.
   242. bachslunch Posted: December 05, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5794151)
Re Traynor: per his dWAR at BBRef, he had negative such numbers early in his career (1920 and 1922; he was a regular in 1922), positive from 1923 to 1930, then negative again from 1931-32 and 1934-35. It probably all averages out to his overall dWAR of 2.1.

Remarkably, he received MVP votes in eight of his seasons, ranging from 6th to 13th, most in the 7th or 8th range.
   243. Master of the Horse Posted: December 05, 2018 at 12:29 PM (#5794164)
233--thanks!
   244. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 05, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5794166)
Even more on Traynor (and 3rd basemen in that era in general).

From 1923-1930, NL only, playing at least 80% of their games at 3rd, minimum 800 games played:

There are only 3 players that meet that requirement. Was Pie thought of as the best because he was basically the only full-time 3rd baseman in the league? :-) The other 2 are terrible HOF pick Freddie Lindstrom, and terrible defensive player Les Bell.
   245. bbmck Posted: December 05, 2018 at 12:35 PM (#5794167)
Final Year 1951-1960: To date the HoF has inducted 13 position players and 3 pitchers. There are 11 position players with 49.4+ WAR (12th is 45.5) and 10 are in the HoF, 16th Phil Rizzuto 40.8 and 20th George Kell 37.4 are in, 9th Bob Elliott 50.4, 12th Vern Stephens 45.5 and 13th Al Dark 43.2 are out. The 13th position player Hall of Famer is 26th Roy Campanella 34.1 which is the most WAR with 500+ games at C, next most is Walker Cooper 28.9. Pitching WAR is 1st Bob Feller 65.5, 2nd Hal Hewhouser 60.7 and 9th Bob Lemon 37.8 are in, 3rd Bobo Newsom 51.6, 4th Dutch Leonard 51.4 and 5th Dizzy Trout 46.2 are out. 50 WAR is a pretty reasonable cut-off if you want to induct 1.5 players a year, Lemon's seven 20 win seasons in a career delayed by military service. Kell and Rizzuto are both Vet selections, although so is 3rd Johnny Mize 70.9.

Final Year 1961-1970: To date the HoF has inducted 8 position players and 6 pitchers. There are 7 position players with 59.4+ WAR (8th is 49) and 6 are in the HoF, Vet selections 8th Nellie Fox 49 and 11th Red Schoendienst 42.3 are in, 6th Ken Boyer 62.8, 9th Gil Hodges 44.9 and 10th Rocky Colavito 44.5 are out. 7th Yogi Berra 49.4 in and T18th Smoky Burgess 33.3 out are the two highest WAR with 500+ games at C. Pitching WAR there are 8 with 52+ (9th is 46.8) and 6 are in. T5th Billy Pierce 53.2 and 7th Larry Jackson 52.7 are out, 9th Bob Friend 46.9 and 10th Curt Simmons 42.7 also out are the only others with 40+ pitching WAR. 50 WAR remains a pretty reasonable cut-off if you want to induct 1.5 players a year and other than Campanella the main vote appears like it heavily relies on the WAR leader board.

Final Year 1971-1980: To date the HoF has inducted 15 position players and 5 pitchers. Now with players who were young when the league expanded you come to a fork in the road, if you stick with around 1.5 players inducted per year there are 12 position players with 60.4+ WAR (13th is 58.7) or stick with around 50 WAR and you have 20 position players with 50.2+ WAR (21st is 48.7). So far it's 11 of 12 with 60+ WAR and 11th Willie Davis 60.7 and 2 of 8 with 50-59.9 WAR as the path of keeping inductions per year around the same is chosen. 16th Luis Aparicio 55.8 by main vote and 20th Orlando Cepeda 50.2 by Vet are in. 14th Joe Torre 57.6, 23rd Thurman Munson 46.1 and 25th Bill Freehan 44.8 who are all the players with 500+ games at C above 29.3 WAR are all out as players. 24th Lou Brock 45.3 parleys presumably the steals record into main vote induction, T36th Bill Mazeroski 36.5 parleys presumably one HR into Vet induction. 13th Dick Allen 58.7, 15th Jim Wynn 55.9 and 17th Vada Pinson 54.3 fall short of the apparent expansion era standard.

By Pitching WAR and most standards 1st Bob Gibson 81.9 (and another 7.5 from his batting) is the best pitcher from these 10 years of retirements so only 64 voters didn't feel he deserved to be inducted. 2nd Juan Marichal 61.9 by main vote and 3rd Jim Bunning 60.5 by Vet get in. 4th Wilbur Wood 52.4 out and 5th Hoyt Wilhelm 50.1 in whose 2254 IP allowed him to be fairly easily compared to contemporaries even with only 52 starts. 14th Catfish Hunter 36.6 and his five 20 win seasons in. 6th Mickey Lolich 48.2, 7th Milt Pappas 46.4, 8th Sam McDowell 43.2 and 9th Mel Stottlemyre 40.8 out are the rest with 40+ pitching WAR.

Final Year 1981-1990: To date the HoF has inducted 9 position players and 9 pitchers. 1st Mike Schmidt 106.8, 2nd Joe Morgan 100.6, 3rd Carl Yastrzemski 96.4, 4th Rod Carew 81.3, (5th Pete Rose 79.7), 6th Johnny Bench 75.2 and 7th Reggie Jackson 74 are in if eligible but sticking with around 1.5 inductions a year it's 16th Willie Stargell 57.5, 19th Tony Perez 54 and 26th Jim Rice 47.7 all inducted by the main vote as opposed to decades of the Vet making the unusual selections. 8th Bobby Grich 71.1, 9th Graig Nettles 68, 10th Buddy Bell 66.3, 11th Reggie Smith 64.6, 12th Sal Bando 61.5 and 13th Keith Hernandez 60.4 out and usually without even getting a second glance from the main vote. 24th Ted Simmons 50.3, 27th Gene Tenace 46.8, T35th Darrell Porter 40.9 and 37th Jim Sundberg 40.5 out if you want another player with 500+ games at C and over 27.4 WAR.

Pitching WAR the Top 5 are in and 82.4+ WAR, 6th Don Sutton 68.6 and 7th Jim Palmer 68 in. 8th Luis Tiant 66.1, 9th Tommy John 62.5 and 10th Jerry Koosman 57.2 out and are the rest above 48.2 WAR. 26.7 WAR and 1730.1 IP means no votes for 26th Mario Soto, 25.1 WAR, 1701.1 IP and Jerome Holtzman means induction for 29th Rollie Fingers. 32nd Bruce Sutter 24.6, 1042 IP seemingly establishes a 300 save benchmark as that and K rate are his apparent edges over 31st Dan Quisenberry 24.8 WAR, 1043.1 IP who gets 18 HoF votes.

Final Year 1991-2000: To date the HoF has inducted 13 position players and 5 pitchers. 12 of the 13 are in the Top 15 which is 64.2+ WAR along with 6th Lou Whitaker 75.1, 12th Dwight Evans 67.1 and 13th Willie Randolph 65.9. 16th Will Clark 56.5, 17th Jack Clark 53.1, 18th Brian Downing 51.5, 20th Tony Phillips 50.9, 21st Brett Butler 49.7 and 22nd Dale Murphy 46.5 around the to the BBWAA voters obvious selection of 19th Kirby Puckett 51.1. Two players with 500+ games at C inducted, Downing and 32nd Lance Parrish 39.5 are the others above 29.4 WAR.

Pitching WAR 1st Bert Blyleven 96.6, 2nd Nolan Ryan 84.1, 4th Dennis Eckersley 62.6, 13th Jack Morris 44 and 16th Goose Gossage 41.9 in. 3rd Rick Reuschel 68.3, 5th Frank Tanana 57.6, 6th Dave Stieb 56.8, 7th Orel Hershiser 51.6 and 8th Mark Langston 50.2 out and the rest of the 50 pitching WAR club. Certainly doesn't help that when you reach the ballot 4 of the Top 10 pitchers of all-time are active.

Final Year 2001-: Enter an acknowledgement of PEDs, it's difficult to evaluate the results since it requires making guesses at whether Palmeiro's 500+ HR and 3000 Hits were going to be easily inducted. Was Kevin Brown penalized for PED suspicions or was his performance simply overlooked. Or is it simply a ballot crunch based on wanting to stick to around 1.5 inductees per year and the bar keeps rising, 16 players end their careers 2001-2010 and 15 players end their careers 1941-1970 with 70+ position or pitching WAR. If WAR does all the time-lining you want to do then Johnny Damon 56.4 and Vada Pinson 54.3 have comparable careers but Pinson is one of the best of his peers not in the Hall of Fame and the same isn't true of Damon.

Applying a standard of 70+ WAR is likely in, 60+ maybe in and 50+ worth considering means about 3 inductees per year in the 21st centrury, that could be considered a good or bad thing.
   246. gabrielthursday Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5794181)
Guys like Whitaker and Rolen, with their 70+ WAR, but lack of black ink or post-season heroics, and, in Whitaker's case, a high or well-defined peak, are the kinds of players that are debatable in the over-70 WAR group. But I think both clearly should be in - in Rolen's case, he's one of the greatest defensive 3B of all-time, and Whitaker was the better half of the best keystone combination in history. The "lack of black ink" argument boils down to the idea that we should penalize players who are simply good at everything, rather than the very best in one area. I'm okay with giving extra consideration to players who are outstanding in one area (Vlad Guerrero benefited from this), but that doesn't imply that the over-all players should be penalized.

@QLE - I was brief in my outline of HOF rules-of-thumb. I agree relief pitchers and catchers are different beasts, and the changes in starting pitcher usage may require a downward shift in the benchmarks for starting pitchers.
   247. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5794200)
I think most voters are triangulating based on some combination of peak value, career value, and other considerations. I don't think there's any meaningful WAR or WAA bright line that guarantees induction -- looking at position players, it seems like below 50 WAR means you have a pretty low chance at getting in, between 50-70 means you'll get serious consideration, and above 70 means you have a very good chance. I think that's the right approach, although they haven't necessarily inducted the right guys in that 50-70 range, and the omissions above 70 are pretty glaring.

Among position players with 40-50 WAR, there are 26 guys in the HOF and 105 out.

Among position players with 50-60 WAR, there are 31 in the HOF and 44 out, with about 15 of the latter group being PED guys, not yet eligible, or currently on the ballot. (Only a few of those 15 will likely make it.)

Among those with 60-70 WAR, 29 are in the HOF and 25 are out, with 11 of those being PED guys, not eligible, or still on the ballot. (4 of those 11 will likely make it and another 4 would have if not for PEDs.)

Among those with 70-80 WAR, there are 23 guys in the HOF and only 8 out, with 5 of those 8 being PED guys, not eligible, or still on the ballot.
   248. gabrielthursday Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5794203)
A quick note on the non-voters this year, per Thibs. There are eight who voted last year but won't this year - and we know the ballots of seven of them. They voted 4/7 for Edgar and Mussina, 3/7 for Schilling, 1/7 for Walker, and none for Rolen (to take some of the players of particular interest here). That's a minor assist for Edgar, Schilling and Walker.

Also of note: Edgar is 4/4 in possible gains on the tracker, Mussina 2/4; Schilling 3/7 (4/8 if you count relative to Adam Rubin's last ballot in 2017); Walker only 2/10 (3/11 counting Rubin)

   249. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5794204)
Tracker now at 15 ballots with Steve Politi (NJ.com) voting Bonds, Clemens, Halladay, Edgar, Mussina, Pettitte, Manny, Rivera, Schilling, and (added this year) Walker. Edgar (+4) & Rivera at 100%; Mussina (+2) & Schilling (+3) making progress; and Halladay off to a strong start that suggests he'll make it next year even if he fades a bit this time.
   250. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 05, 2018 at 02:12 PM (#5794214)
Among position players with 40-50 WAR, there are 26 guys in the HOF and 105 out.


Of those 26 in the Hall, only 2 have played later than 1947 (Ernie Lombardi's last year). Jim Rice, and Lou Brock

Among position players with 50-60 WAR, there are 31 in the HOF and 44 out


23 of the 31 played prior to 1947.

From 1871-1947, there were 61 position players to retire with at least 50 WAR. 55 of them are in the Hall of Fame.

edit: screw up on the first part, missed Nellie Fox, Red Schoendiest and and Rizzuto. So, only 2 since Schoendiest (last season 1963). I really need to actually pay for the PI subscription so I can see everything in the list at once...



   251. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 05, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5794222)
From 1871-1947, there were 61 position players to retire with at least 50 WAR. 55 of them are in the Hall of Fame.


There are almost as many 50+ WAR guys in danger of getting booted this year, Lance Beckman (52 WAR), Roy Oswalt (50), Andruw Jones (62), Scott Rolen (70) as there are the five non-HOFers from before integration.
   252. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 05, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5794229)
There are almost as many 50+ WAR guys in danger of getting booted this year, Lance Beckman (52 WAR), Roy Oswalt (50), Andruw Jones (62), Scott Rolen (70) as there are the five non-HOFers from before integration.


That list was just position players. There are 16 pitchers from 1871-1947 with at least 50 WAR that did not make the Hall.

edit: and, of course, one of those 6 guys is Joe Jackson. So, only 5 eligible position players didn't make the Hall.

Bad Bill Dahlen
Jack Glasscock (should be in just on the last name alone)
Sherry Magee
Indian Bob Johnson
Stan Hack
   253. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 05, 2018 at 02:56 PM (#5794246)
The "lack of black ink" argument boils down to the idea that we should penalize players who are simply good at everything, rather than the very best in one area. I'm okay with giving extra consideration to players who are outstanding in one area (Vlad Guerrero benefited from this)


Ironically, Vlad Guerrero actually does very poorly in black ink - BB-Ref gives him 6 points of black ink (366th all-time; an avg. HOFer has 27). He never led the league in any of the Triple Crown stats: just hits (once), runs (once), plate appearances (once), total bases (twice), and intentional walks (five times) (he also led in caught stealings once and GDP's twice). Which really surprised me, because your basic point is correct: Vlad got into the Hall of Fame a lot quicker than, say, Larry Walker because he had great Triple Crown stats (without the Colorado thing hanging over them).
   254. The Duke Posted: December 05, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5794256)
Surprised we don’t hear more about Reggie Smith - what’s knock on him? Too much of a wanderer?
   255. soc40 Posted: December 05, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5794259)
16 ballots in now and Kent finally got his 1st vote. Nothing for Wagner, but I'm sure some love will eventually come his way.
Is it time to delete Berkman, Oswalt and Young from the spreadsheet? We'll be able to scan across the tracker easier then.
   256. bbmck Posted: December 05, 2018 at 04:47 PM (#5794307)
Mays 156.4 WAR, Mantle 110.3, Griffey 83.8 and Yount 77.3 are 1st ballot selections, rest of 60+ WAR or HoF who debuted in integration era and have 500+ games in CF:

69.8 Carlos Beltran - ???
68.3 Kenny Lofton - 3.2% one and done
64.6 Reggie Smith - 0.7% one and done
64.3 Mike Trout - might do well
62.8 Andruw Jones - 7.3% on 1st ballot
60.7 Willie Davis - not listed on ballot
60.4 Jim Edmonds - 2.5% one and done

66.3 Duke Snider - 17% on 1st ballot, elected on 11th
64.8 Andre Dawson - 45.3% on 1st ballot, elected on 9th
63.9 Richie Ashburn - 2.1% on 1st ballot, 41.7% best ballot result, elected by Vet
51.1 Kirby Puckett - 82.1% on 1st ballot
49.6 Larry Doby - 3.4% best ballot result, elected by Vet

500+ games at 3B, Schmidt 106.8, Ripken 95.9, Boggs 91.4, Brett 88.7, Chipper 85.2, Brooks 78.4 and Molitor 75.7 1st ballot:

117.8 Alex Rodriguez - ???
95.7 Adrian Beltre - 1st ballot lock
79.7 Pete Rose - not eligible
70.2 Scott Rolen - 10.2% on 1st ballot
69.4 Miguel Cabrera - 1st ballot lock
68.4 Edgar Martinez - 36.2% on 1st ballot, might be elected on 10th
68.0 Graig Nettles - 8.3% on 1st ballot which is best of 4 results
66.3 Buddy Bell - 1.7% one and done
62.8 Ken Boyer - 2.5% on 1st ballot, 25.5% best ballot result
61.5 Sal Bando - 0.7% one and done

96.6 Eddie Mathews - 32.3% on 1st ballot, elected on 5th
70.5 Ron Santo - 3.9% one and done, re-added 5 years later 13.4%, 43.1% best ballot result, elected by Vet
60.4 Harmon Killebrew - 59.6% on 1st ballot, elected on 4th
54.0 Tony Perez - 50% on 1st ballot, elected on 9th

500+ games at 2B, Morgan 100.6, Carew 81.3 and Jackie 61.4 1st ballot:

79.7 Pete Rose - not eligible
75.1 Lou Whitaker - 2.9% one and done
71.1 Bobby Grich - 2.6% one and done
69.2 Robinson Cano - ???
65.9 Willie Randolph - 1.1% one and done
65.4 Chase Utley - ???

68.0 Ryne Sandberg - 49.2% on 1st ballot, elected on 3rd
67.1 Roberto Alomar - 73.7% on 1st ballot, elected on 2nd
65.5 Craig Biggio - 68.2% on 1st ballot, elected on 3rd
49.0 Nellie Fox - 10.8% on 1st ballot, 74.7% best ballot result, elected by Vet
36.5 Bill Mazeroski - 6.1% on 1st ballot, 42.3% best ballot result, elected by Vet

Every other position player with 60+ WAR, debut since 1947, final year 2000 or earlier to avoid PED based balloting, not currently in the HoF:

67.1 Dwight Evans - 5.9% on 1st ballot, 10.4% best ballot result
60.4 Keith Hernandez - 5.1% on 1st ballot, 10.8% best ballot result

The obvious conclusion is that 60+ WAR at LF, RF, 1B and DH generally comes with appreciated hitting stats, 60+ WAR at SS or C generally comes with appreciated defensive contributions and the CF, 3B and 2B aren't reliably recognized unless they have HoF quality hitting, HoF hitting milestones or develop a "felt like a Hall of Famer" narrative by whatever method. Cutting off results at 2000 also means WAR has little impact on voting as a stat and simply has predictive value in that it has a high correlation with excellent play.
   257. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 05, 2018 at 05:05 PM (#5794316)
Ballot #17 (Jay Dunn) is a gain for Mussina (now +3) and a loss for Andruw Jones (-1), along with votes for Halladay, Edgar, McGriff, Pettitte, Rivera, Schilling & Vizquel. An 8-person ballot with Vizquel overlooks some better options.
   258. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 05:11 PM (#5794322)
An 8-person ballot with Vizquel overlooks some better options.

A 15-person ballot with Vizquel would overlook some better options. Maybe even 20.
   259. SoSH U at work Posted: December 05, 2018 at 05:32 PM (#5794330)
A 15-person ballot with Vizquel would overlook some better options. Maybe even 20.


It looks like 19. I'd put him in before Wagner and Michael Young.
   260. gabrielthursday Posted: December 05, 2018 at 05:36 PM (#5794332)
Mussina has now, with Bill Center's ballot, picked up 4 of 6 possible slots from last year's voters. If he gains 30% of returning voters, he should be elected, given the tendencies of departing voters and new voters.
   261. gabrielthursday Posted: December 05, 2018 at 05:50 PM (#5794340)
It looks like 19. I'd put him in before Wagner and Michael Young.
I have 21 definitely before him, ignoring PEDs, with Vizquel and Polanco in a close race for 22nd on this ballot.
   262. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 05, 2018 at 06:08 PM (#5794344)
. . . Bill Center's ballot . . .

The first "adds" for Bonds & Clemens this year, on ballot # 18. If that rate held across the entire vote, they only pick up ~ 23 votes, or around a third of what they need to be elected. I think they need to clear 60% this year to have much chance of making it by their final year on the ballot.
   263. The Duke Posted: December 05, 2018 at 07:38 PM (#5794382)
If they clear 60%, expect Joe Morgan to weigh in again. He and his buddies aren’t going down without a fight and I think they can hold these guys to less than 75%.

   264. Howie Menckel Posted: December 05, 2018 at 07:48 PM (#5794385)
"Bad Bill Dahlen
Jack Glasscock (should be in just on the last name alone)
Sherry Magee
Indian Bob Johnson
Stan Hack"

all but Johnson are in HOF iirc (wait, Magee?)

and it's "Pebbly Jack Glasscock" to you, sir
   265. The Duke Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:17 PM (#5794440)
I didn’t think Moose and Halladay would go this year but they are making a spirited run. I still think they look to fall short but sets them up to go in next year with perhaps Schilling plus any newcomers.
   266. EddieA Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:46 AM (#5794466)
Pie Traynor was the 3rd baseman on the sporting news all-time all star team in 1975 or 1976. A .320 BA used to make you the all-time great. The right answer was Eddie Mathews, but alas, .271.
   267. bachslunch Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:37 AM (#5794477)
@254: not sure what happened to Reggie Smith. My guess is a combination of factors: fine stats which come to the fore with advanced metrics but no black ink to speak of, played a good bit at a premium position much of his career with numbers that look solid for a CF but not for a corner OF (kind of the same problem with Kenny Lofton), good at things that casual fans don't notice, not much of a base stealer, not a major compiler, played much of his career in a depressed offensive era (60s and early 70s), no postseason boost. Kind of the perfect storm in some ways. Guys like Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, and Lofton share some of these issues, and they were all one and done.
   268. bachslunch Posted: December 06, 2018 at 09:24 AM (#5794502)
"Bad Bill Dahlen
Jack Glasscock (should be in just on the last name alone)
Sherry Magee
Indian Bob Johnson
Stan Hack"

all but Johnson are in HOF iirc (wait, Magee?)


None are in the HoF. All but Johnson are in the HoM.
   269. John DiFool2 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:14 AM (#5794528)
#256: I mean, we all already knew what said scorecard would look like, but it truly is a pretty shameful record of voting bias, by a group of people who should know better. I think Rolen and Miggy are the perfect pair there.
   270. homerwannabee Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:55 AM (#5794543)
For me, I think Right Field is by far the most under rated position by WAR. Just look at some of the greatest Right Fielders of all time, and you'll see that it's very rare for ANY of them to have over 10 WAR by playing the position. By the way, I think Center Field is the most over rated position in baseball. A person in right field could get more baseballs than the guy in center field, and still lag far behind a Center Fielder.
   271. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:46 AM (#5794578)
BBTF mock ballot is up. Voting will end next Monday.


   272. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5794583)
negative such numbers early in his career (1920 and 1922; he was a regular in 1922), positive from 1923 to 1930, then negative again from 1931-32 and 1934-35. It probably all averages out to his overall dWAR of 2.1.


Not a shocker here, but the Bill Doak model glove came out in 1922. Traynor was better (by the eye test) than anyone who had come before him because he was the first generation using a webbed fielding glove at 3B. That doesn't make him that much better than his peers and certainly doesn't make him better than players who came later.
   273. Booey Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5794589)
@254: not sure what happened to Reggie Smith. My guess is a combination of factors: fine stats which come to the fore with advanced metrics but no black ink to speak of, played a good bit at a premium position much of his career with numbers that look solid for a CF but not for a corner OF (kind of the same problem with Kenny Lofton), good at things that casual fans don't notice, not much of a base stealer, not a major compiler, played much of his career in a depressed offensive era (60s and early 70s), no postseason boost. Kind of the perfect storm in some ways. Guys like Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, and Lofton share some of these issues, and they were all one and done.

It's pretty easy to see what Reggie Smith's problem was/is. To sum up what you said above, his traditional stats just don't look very HOF-ey.

7 all star appearances is something, but beyond that...

.287/366/.489, 2020 hits, 314 HR, 1092 rbi, just 2 top 10 MVP finishes (258th all time in MVP shares), well below the average HOFer in all 4 Hall of Fame tracker categories: 4 pts of black ink (avg HOFer 27), 124 pts of grey ink (avg HOFer 144), 65 on the HOF monitor (likely HOFer 100), 35 on HOF standards (likely HOFer 50). None of his top 10 most similar batters are in the HOF.

He's entirely a "cuz WAR says so" candidate (and even then he's borderline). Be honest...did anyone here who saw him play think he was a HOFer when he retired? Did anyone here think he was an egregious snub before value stats like WAR and WAA were invented?
   274. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5794591)
Among position players with 50-60 WAR, there are 31 in the HOF and 44 out

23 of the 31 played prior to 1947.

From 1871-1947, there were 61 position players to retire with at least 50 WAR. 55 of them are in the Hall of Fame.


There are a couple adjustments that have to be made to WAR to properly compare across eras. WAR is a counting stat that adjusts runs to wins

1) Adjust for the length of schedule. Not fair to compare 154 game schedule totals to 162 game schedule totals. That brings the 60 WAR bar down to 57 for the early players.
2) Adjust for standard deviations in run scoring. The runs/win calculation is not constant across all eras but it is constant in WAR. Deadball / sillyball totals will be different.
3) Adjust for interrupted careers due to military service and integration. This obviously affects Campanella, Doby and Robinson but also affects Ken Boyer, Joe Gordon and Phil Rizzuto.

   275. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5794654)
2) Adjust for standard deviations in run scoring. The runs/win calculation is not constant across all eras but it is constant in WAR.

I agree with your other points, but is this one true? Just looking at a few guys from different eras:

Babe Ruth*: 1702 RAR / 162.1 WAR - 10.5 R/W
Roberto Clemente: 879 RAR / 94.5 WAR - 9.3 R/W
Frank Thomas: 768 RAR / 73.9 WAR - 10.4 R/W
Mike Trout: 632 RAR / 64.3 WAR - 9.8 R/W

* doesn't include pitching
   276. Rally Posted: December 06, 2018 at 02:51 PM (#5794709)
He's entirely a "cuz WAR says so" candidate (and even then he's borderline). Be honest...did anyone here who saw him play think he was a HOFer when he retired? Did anyone here think he was an egregious snub before value stats like WAR and WAA were invented?


I think it's mostly a matter of timing. He retired in 1982, there just wasn't much of a sabermetric community back then. Bill James had published a few Abstracts but I think it was in pre-cult following status at the time. My first Abstract was the 1984 one, and I've ready a lot of others who say that was their first introduction to James and sabermetrics. When Bobby Grich retired in 1986, there was a bit of cult following that regarded him as a HOF level player, though very small and practically non-existent in the media. I think the same group would have been down with Reggie Smith had he been 4 years older and had the same career path. But when he retired, there just wasn't anybody paying attention.

As far as "cuz WAR says so", he's one of the guys (along with Willie Davis) where you put together the framework of the stat, then run the numbers, and see him up there with guys a lot more famous. Makes you spend a few days checking for bugs. Is that legit? Didn't find any that would suggest an error was made on Reggie. Reggie kind of ticks all the boxes for things a player can do to help a team and stay unrecognized, but he was a fine player.
   277. bbmck Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5794720)
Not very HoF-ey 8019 PA, .361 OBP, .470 SLG based on:

Reggie Smith 1966-82: 8051 PA, .366 OBP, .489 SLG
Bobby Bonds 1968-81: 8090 PA, .353 OBP, .471 SLG
Jim Wynn 1963-77: 8011 PA, .366 OBP, .436 SLG
Fred Lynn 1974-90: 7923 PA, .360 OBP, .484 SLG

HoF-ey 11266 PA, .348 OBP, .484 SLG based on:

Reggie Jackson 1967-87: 11418 PA, .356 OBP, .490 SLG
Andre Dawson 1976-96: 10769 PA, .323 OBP, .482 SLG
Dave Winfield 1973-95: 12358 PA, .353 OBP, .475 SLG
Billy Williams 1959-76: 10519 PA, .361 OBP, .492 SLG

So you need 3247 PA, .237 OBP, .520 SLG, given health and opportunity another 5 seasons of .757 OPS is a pretty low benchmark, I use OBP is 1.7 times more valuable for producing runs so if you prefer .300 OBP and .413 SLG in the final 5 seasons is roughly equivalent in value to the unrealistic 237/520. If you prefer a different ratio adjust accordingly, if you prefer don't adjust and just go "no way someone will hit 237/520 dude".

If you don't like "cuz WAR says so" try "cuz Walks says so". There is also the argument of have a .713 OPS for 5 more years to earn a plaque but for some people being bad at baseball doesn't add to your Hall of Fame case even if it "solves" the problem of "only" 2020 hits.
   278. Chris Fluit Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5794726)
Edgar is now up to +5
   279. Walt Davis Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:26 PM (#5794727)
The runs/win calculation is not constant across all eras but it is constant in WAR.

It's not constant in bWAR. RAA to WAA varies. The additional PT wins (Rrep) is basically constant (I think) except for league differences (which technically should probably be in RAA but so be it).

We can see this in Bonds' record if you look at his RAA to WAA. In his first two years, it's basically 10 RAA=1 WAA. But for the next few years, he gets a WAA return better than that ... "peaking" at 7.3 WAA for 63 RAA in 1992, nearly 9 RAA = 1 WAA. The sillyball hits which seems to "peak" in 2000 with 65 RAA producing just 5.9 WAA (about 11 RAA = 1 WAA). By the time his career ends, we're back to about 10 RAA = 1 WAA.

Or comp Santo to Rolen. Nearly all of Santo's productive career was in the crap-scoring 60s. He had seasons like 62 RAA = 7.3 WAA and 30 RAA = 4.0 WAA and for his career 317 RAA = 36.8 WAA. For his career, Rolen had 457 RAA = 44.1 WAA.

EDIT: Roughly, at least in the post-integration era, RAA to WAA conversion ranges from 9 RAA = 1 WAA to 11 RAA = 1 WAA.
   280. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5794737)
I guess I don't understand what you are getting at bbmck. None of those guys in the first list were ever going to get a chance to get another 1000 PA, much less 3247.

Bonds, age 34 and 35, hit .208/.312/.343 and was done
Wynn, age 34, ba collapsed, countered by walking a ton, finished with a 107 ops+. Was definitely a last gasp though. .527 ops in part-time play at age 35 and done
Lynn, at least made it to age 38, but, last two years .689 ops in part-time play

Smith was the best of this bunch, and was a really good player until the end. age 37 - 134 ops+ in 398 PA. Looks like he could have kept going a little while longer.

   281. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5794743)
It's not just WAR. Two of the big early points of sabermetrics were recognizing the value of stat lines in different offensive parks and eras, and recognizing the value of certain defensive positions. Smith's talents would probably have been more widely recognized if people looked at something like OPS+ in his day, or recognized the value difference between a good CF and 1B/corner OF.

Looking at comparable batting lines by OPS+, Smith (8051 PA, 137 OPS+) looks like a slightly worse version of Duke Snider (8237 PA, 140 OPS+) or a slightly better version of Jim Edmonds (7980 PA, 132 OPS+). And WAR confirms this ordering (66.3 to 64.6 to 60.4). The former made the HOF but spent 11 seasons on the ballot, while the latter got virtually no support.

Smith also doesn't have any of the Duke's narrative, he didn't get anywhere near 400 HR, and he's about 240 RBI behind the Duke as well, due to being slightly worse and playing in a tougher offensive context. So it's not a surprise that he didn't get any HOF support.

Even if he were playing today, while "we" might have recognized how good he was, it's unlikely he would have gotten much HOF support -- as guys like Larry Walker (8030 PA, 141 OPS+), Scott Rolen, and Edmonds have shown.
   282. QLE Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:55 PM (#5794746)
Responding (a bit late, but I had obligations elsewhere) to the discussion I seem to have started:

#238- This list demonstrates some of my points in action- of that list, I'd argue for the merited induction of Doby (color line and a peak player who played in the 154-game era), Ewing (nineteenth-century great), Kiner (peak player in the 154-game era, and development due to WWII service), Jennings (nineteenth-century great), Kelly (nineteenth-century great), Averill (peak player in the 154-game era, and lost at least one All-Star level season in the PCL), Thompson (nineteenth-century great), White (nineteenth-century great), Duffy (nineteenth-century great), Campanella (catcher, career record affected by color line), and Ward (combine his record as a position player, his record as a catcher, and his importance to other aspects of the game, and he's a no-brainer).

@QLE - I was brief in my outline of HOF rules-of-thumb. I agree relief pitchers and catchers are different beasts, and the changes in starting pitcher usage may require a downward shift in the benchmarks for starting pitchers.


Fair point involving catchers, and I must confess here to one issue- because pitcher WAR seems to be much more highly contested than that of position players, I have never really developed a full method with them. I have done some calculations with relievers that confirm to me that only three (plus whatever we consider Dennis Eckersley) belong, but I have not managed to systematically examine all pitchers.

From 1871-1947, there were 61 position players to retire with at least 50 WAR. 55 of them are in the Hall of Fame.


True, but remember one important point- a really large number of those retirees were people who played entirely or heavily in the nineteenth-century, in seasons much shorter than even the 154-game standard. As a result, while there are clearly several undeserving HOF inductees with 50+ WAR in that group (largely a product of the general overrating of 1920s and 1930s players), I'd argue that this group in general is one better than contemporary players with the same number of career WAR.

There are 16 pitchers from 1871-1947 with at least 50 WAR that did not make the Hall.


These demonstrate the limitations of career WAR in another direction- around half of these pitchers have their career WAR totals less due to greatness and more as a reflection of how pitchers were used in the nineteenth century. In context, it is unclear if any of that group merits induction.

For me, I think Right Field is by far the most under rated position by WAR. Just look at some of the greatest Right Fielders of all time, and you'll see that it's very rare for ANY of them to have over 10 WAR by playing the position. By the way, I think Center Field is the most over rated position in baseball. A person in right field could get more baseballs than the guy in center field, and still lag far behind a Center Fielder.


If this is a matter of fielding statistics, maybe (though it could just represent the limitations of them for outfielders generally). In terms of players having HOF careers in that position, not really- by my calculations, there are more right fielders meriting HOF induction than any other position, and center field is a little short counting only MLB players (it gets a boost once the Negro Leaguers are added in).

#274- Not sure about your point 2), but points 1) and 3) are certainly well-taken and are considered in my system- for that matter, your point 1) is still a little hard of players who had any career before 1904 (when the 104-game season was established in both major leagues), and should be continually prorated downward for position players in the nineteenth century.

#277- Smith, Bonds, and Wynn merit induction, but your comparative point is unfair to Reggie Jackson, whose peak was stronger than Bonds' and Wynn's entire careers and is only a couple of WAR short of Smith's whole career- his career totals are such because he ended his career with five of his six final seasons as a below-average player.
   283. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5794749)

It's not constant in bWAR. RAA to WAA varies. The additional PT wins (Rrep) is basically constant (I think) except for league differences (which technically should probably be in RAA but so be it).

Thanks Walt, I didn't think that was the case.
   284. bbmck Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5794751)
What I'm getting at is that I don't care about end of career slop. Reggie Jackson has 2474 PA at the end of his career with .328 OBP and .411 SLG, I completely ignore that, he had health and opportunity to play like crap. His 8944 PA, .363 OBP, .512 SLG career up until that point looks a lot more like those non HoF-ey careers. Slight hitting edge and 1.5 extra seasons of volume over the other Reggie and then trust stats that do things like adjust for ballparks or attempt to evaluate the quality of the player's defense.

Even without WAR, I could and did use Total Baseball and a calculator to remove end of career slop, it's not hard. Understanding why advanced metrics suggest that Reggie Smith was good at baseball is pretty easy to do.
   285. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 06, 2018 at 04:28 PM (#5794770)
#277- Smith, Bonds, and Wynn merit induction, but your comparative point is unfair to Reggie Jackson, whose peak was stronger than Bonds' and Wynn's entire careers and is only a couple of WAR short of Smith's whole career- his career totals are such because he ended his career with five of his six final seasons as a below-average player.


This is my feeling too. The other 3 HOFers Reggie Smith compares well with. He was not particularly close to Reggie Jackson. They were exact contemporaries. Reggie J has an 8 WAR advantage in WAR7 and, about 10 WAR in WAR10
   286. Sunday silence Posted: December 06, 2018 at 04:49 PM (#5794784)
Reg Smith looks to be an excellent defender through age 28; and still good in RF after that. I can see him being worth 25 runs above avg during his peak '70-71, he has very good range, vg assists, and really good at holding runners as well. He's doing very well in all three categories.

Did he have an injury or something in '72? He only returned for one more season in CF, but wow he might be underated by defensive metrics.
   287. GregD Posted: December 06, 2018 at 05:21 PM (#5794802)
I get the points being made for Reggie Smith here, but there's something amiss about saying the two Reggies have similar peaks:

by WAR
Reggie J--9.2, 7.8, 6.7, 6.4, 5.7, 5.7....
Reggie S--6.7, 6.1, 5.6, 5.5, 5.1, 4.9....

You don't have to get into the end of career longevity (and mehness) to guess why one made the HOF easily. Whether the other one should slip in just above the line or comes just above the line is an interesting question but a fundamentally different one
   288. GregD Posted: December 06, 2018 at 05:25 PM (#5794808)
The other guys mentioned:

Jim Wynn--7.7, 7.4, 7.1, 5.5, 5.5, 5.3
Fred Lynn--8.9, 7.4, 4.7, 4.7, 4.5, 4.4
Bobby Bonds--7.8, 6.7, 6.3, 5.2, 5.1, 5.0

Wynn and Bonds stand out in this crude measure from Lynn (great 2 years! wish he had some more) and Smith (lots of real good years but no truly great years.)
   289. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 06, 2018 at 05:41 PM (#5794816)
#19, Jon Heyman: Berkman, Bonds, Halladay, Andruw, Edgar (an add!), McGriff, Mussina, Rivera, Rolen & Schilling.

I think Heyman has articulated his reason for differentiating Bonds & Clemens before, but it was so unpersuasive that I've forgotten his reasoning. He's the 1st Lance Berkman voter, and only the 2nd for Andruw. A bit of an unusual ballot, but he got everyone with a real chance to be elected this year.
   290. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 06:38 PM (#5794832)
What I'm getting at is that I don't care about end of career slop. Reggie Jackson has 2474 PA at the end of his career with .328 OBP and .411 SLG, I completely ignore that, he had health and opportunity to play like crap. His 8944 PA, .363 OBP, .512 SLG career up until that point looks a lot more like those non HoF-ey careers. Slight hitting edge and 1.5 extra seasons of volume over the other Reggie and then trust stats that do things like adjust for ballparks or attempt to evaluate the quality of the player's defense.

Not to pile on, but a 149 OPS+ vs. 137 is more than a slight hitting edge--it's nearly a win per season. Smith makes up for a lot of that with his defense, but then gives most of it back with his lack of durability. ~0.9 wins per season over 15 seasons adds up.
   291. Sunday silence Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:10 PM (#5794840)
Smith makes up for a lot of that with his defense, but then gives most of it back with his lack of durability.


how much are you devaluing him by for durability?
   292. DanG Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:16 PM (#5794842)
Smith was the best of this bunch, and was a really good player until the end. age 37 - 134 ops+ in 398 PA. Looks like he could have kept going a little while longer.
He did, for two more years. From Reggie's SABR bio:

"In 1983, Smith played in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants and in a dark literary twist of fate, ended his playing career back in a racially hostile environment.18 In spite of injury, he produced at a .285/.409/.627 rate in part-time play, with that slugging percentage rivaling the qualified leader's mark. According to the team's owner, Matsutaro Shoriki, it was Smith's contributions that led to the team's pennant. But beanball incidents, an on-field brawl, disputes with umpires' protean strike zones for African-American players, and racial epithets from fans that escalated to a physical assault on Smith and his son all cast a shadow on the contributions he made. The 1984 season was his last, cursed with injuries to wrist, shoulder, and knee, though he still slugged over .500 in his 231 AB."

It couldn't have helped his career that Smith was a black player in Boston in the 1960's-early 70's. Another bio excerpt:

"Smith hadn't been prepared for the intensity or texture of many Bostonians' primitive hate for people based on race. He'd grown up in Los Angeles when neighborhoods there were more integrated and social mores more relaxed. Like an anthropologist, he had the outsider's perspective on the behavior of this cultural island. Unlike other players, he didn't choose to suck it up and gut it out."
   293. bbmck Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:16 PM (#5794843)
Pile on to what? I explained how I compared careers ~30 years ago in reply to the claim that Reggie Smith was only a HoF candidate "cuz WAR says so" and people are posting WAR per season and OPS+. 8944 PA, .363 OBP, .512 SLG is about 1.5 more seasons of slightly better hitting than 8051 PA, .366 OBP, .489 SLG. 30 years ago I would consider that 875 vs 855, now I think it's more like 1129 vs 1111, either way slightly better. If I wanted to post OPS+ and WAR I would have but neither was listed in Total Baseball that I was using in high school.

If you want to remove Reggie Jackson the composite HoF-ey stats are slightly worse, Jackson is included and listed first to show how close he is to the average stats of the group. I was under the impression that Reggie Jackson is considered clearly above Hall of Fame in/out on career stats alone and was using him to illustrate that it was more about showing the worthiness of the first four as opposed to making a case for the unworthiness of the other three in the 2nd group.
   294. The Duke Posted: December 06, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5794863)
Thank you all for that good discussion on Smith. He played during the core of my baseball card collecting days and I remember when the Cards acquired him how lucky I thought we were as he was considered a big star. I don’t specifically remember thinking he was a hall of famer but I remember him being one of the best players on the field during the years I was paying close attention
   295. bachslunch Posted: December 07, 2018 at 07:26 AM (#5794905)
One interesting trivia piece regarding Reggie Smith. He was the opening day 2B for the pennant-winning 1967 Red Sox, and in fact played that position for the first six games of the season because Mike Andrews was sidelined with a back injury.

https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/29bb796b
   296. The Duke Posted: December 07, 2018 at 07:33 AM (#5794908)
Who is Michael Young ?
   297. Rally Posted: December 07, 2018 at 08:43 AM (#5794918)
He was not particularly close to Reggie Jackson. They were exact contemporaries.


Reggie Smith was on his way to being the hero of the 1977 world series. In the third inning of game 6, he homered to give the Dodgers a 3-2 lead. If the lead held, they would have played game 7. It was Reggie's third homer of the series.

His next 2 times up, he grounded into double plays. The other Reggie saw 3 more pitches in the game, made 3 swings, and blasted 3 homers.
   298. homerwannabee Posted: December 07, 2018 at 09:24 AM (#5794930)
Michael Young is a good example of how sabermetrics have changed voting. Back in the day he'd probably get about 20 or 25 percent of the vote. Got 200 hits in six different seasons. Got 1984 hits in a 10 year span. Has a career .300 avg. Now he's on the bubble to even get 5% of the vote. WAR wasn't even an idea, and his poor defense would be excused away because of his great offensive baseball stats.

Like I said, I still think he doesn't make it, but he's basically a slightly worse version of Steve Garvey who lasted all 15 years on the ballot.
   299. bachslunch Posted: December 07, 2018 at 09:34 AM (#5794932)
[Michael Young's] poor defense would be excused away because of his great offensive baseball stats.


Given that as a SS/3B/2B he managed to put -10.5 dWAR, he must indeed have been really bad. They give a positional boost for these positions in dWAR, don't they?
   300. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 07, 2018 at 10:12 AM (#5794940)
I get the points being made for Reggie Smith here, but there's something amiss about saying the two Reggies have similar peaks:

by WAR
Reggie J--9.2, 7.8, 6.7, 6.4, 5.7, 5.7....
Reggie S--6.7, 6.1, 5.6, 5.5, 5.1, 4.9....

You don't have to get into the end of career longevity (and mehness) to guess why one made the HOF easily. Whether the other one should slip in just above the line or comes just above the line is an interesting question but a fundamentally different one


Yeah, Smith is just not close to Jackson on peak.

Another view of that, black/gray ink: RJ 35/175, RS 4/124. RJ led the league in HR 4 times, R twice, RBI once, SLG three times, and OPS+ four times. RS led in 2B twice, OBP once, and OPS+ once.
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