Yeah, who could have forseen that Troy Glaus would get hurt?

I thought that the Jays were exploiting a new mkt inefficiency.

Ricciardi, while raising a valid point, sounds like a guy about to get fired.

I thought that the Jays were exploiting a new mkt inefficiency.

The one where all your good players get hurt? The A's have have been doing that for years now. The student is not yet the master.

How has this guy not been fired? He reminds me of Kevin Malone in some ways.

All he needs to to is trade Glaus for a young shortstop.

I don't normally put too much weight in the stereotypes and characterizations that float around the online baseball community pretty freely. It's those stereotypes that allowed reasonable and well informed fans to think that Kenny Williams was an idiot or that, for example, Bill Stoneman or Dayton Moore are currently idiots. These characterizations generally have the effect of putting blinders on otherwise intelligent and passionate fans, whether they relate to players or front offices.

Now, with that disclaimer out of the way, I firmly believe that J.P. Ricciardi is a petulant whiner, and that the Toronto front office is filled with loose cannons with no long term plan, no short term plan, no hindsight and no ability to take a critical look at themselves. I'll go so far as to make a prediction, albeit a subjective one: The Jays will not have success until they fire their GM.

Does this post signify the first turning of the worm indications for the SABR-friendly GMs here?

What?

"Does this post signify the first turning of the worm indications for the SABR-friendly GMs here?"

First of all, I don't think JP has been all that supported on this site.

Secondly, Kevin, you know me, we don't like each other, but you know that I hardly toe the Sabr line, I think DIPs is a crock of ####, I believe in clutch and intangibles, and I've been arguing against Jeter projections since I got to this site. So what I say hardly has to do with mainstream SABR thought on this board.

“A left-fielder, a catcher, a set-up guy, a closer, a f------ third baseman—who’s got those replacements?” Ricciardi asked yesterday, growing more frustrated with each question. “The Red Sox got those f------ replacements?

Yes, because the Toronto Blue Jays are the only team to suffer a ton of injuries this year.

Yup, the Red Sox got those replacements, JP.

Mirabelli is in no way a legit full-time catcher.

Okajima has one month experience; it's a little soon to say he's a legit closer. NTM, the 8th inning is questionable if he moves.

And oh yeah...the Sox spent far more money than the Jays can, too.

I mean...the Sox bench is better than other high-budget teams but I don't think it really refutes what Ricciardi is saying, either.

I wonder what Keith Law would have to say about all this.

Yeah, that was a particularly dumb comparison to make. His more general point has relevance (it's tough to field a good front-line and have good fallbacks on a limited budget), but I wouldn't've compared picked the Red Sox as my point of reference.

The worm turned years ago when Ricciardi started ######## about the Batter's Box guys criticizing him.

Sabermetrics isn't a mature science at the major league level until the realization set in that there are good GMs that understand sabermetrics and bad GMs that understand sabermetrics.

I think clearly, Ricciardi has shown that he's probably better as a skilled helper rather than heading up a front office. The public relations game is part of the job and J.P.'s long-range planning has really gone downhill - when something doesn't go according to plan, i.e. Hinske being injured and then disappointing, the organization tends to freak out and go for random quick fixes.

Frankly, I think this tendency of the Jays has gotten a lot worse since Keith Law left. While a certain poster will constantly bring up Keith's evaluation of one particular prospect over another, I've always gotten the impression from interacting with Keith over the years that he's a big picture thinker. The completely uncreative way the Blue Jays decided to plug the shortstop hole with Royce Clayton should be downright embarrassing to an organization that claims to be forward-thinking. And when the team does snag a low-risk, decent-upside guy like Gaudin or Doug Davis, they have about a 2 week window of opportunity on the team before the Jays lose patience.

The proverbial worm turned on Ricciardi here about three years ago it seems. He has very few defenders left anywhere it seems, even on this site.

pkb33 is right though - the Red Sox hardly have the depth to weather the degree of injuries which the Jays have experienced this year. We witnessed that last year, albeit to a slightly more extreme degree. While I don't think Ricciardi is a good GM, the Jays really have been hit hard with injuries. That the A's have also been hit hard doesn't make it any less true for the Blue Jays either.

It's part of the game, and ######## about it doesn't help, but it doesn't make it any less true.

Yes, because the Toronto Blue Jays are the only team to suffer a ton of injuries this year.

The Orioles have been trying to spin to local media that the injuries to Kris Benson and Jaret Wright are the unluckiest things to happen in human history.

The Orioles have been trying to spin to local media that the injuries to Kris Benson and Jaret Wright are the unluckiest things to happen in human history.

Hey, Leo kept Wright healthy once before!

And why do you say I don't like you? I think you're a Yankee fanboy who let's his fanboyishness get in the way of critical thinking sometimes but that doesn't mean I don't like you. I do.

Get a room, you two.

Kevin, JP hasn't been considered a SABR GM for a long time. After hiring Law, he looked like he was going to be for one year, and since then, the only SABR thing he's done is draft college players. This has been gone over many times on this site.

He's got a big payroll now, and he's spent it poorly. Having money actually hurt him- he dealt for Overbay, when he could've had Gabe Gross, David Bush and some cash, he dealt for Glaus, which necessited dealing away Koskie and giving up Hudson in the process, which created the need to shift Hill to 2B. He brought in Thomas after his bargain year, and overpaid him for at least the second year of the deal to hopefully provide good production at DH. But when a guy like Thomas or Glaus goes down, or your 36 year-old catcher, or AJ Burnett, you can't act all shocked. JP lives in a hell of his own creation. He's squandered a good deal of talent and wasted the most productive years of Wells and Halladay's careers. He makes it really easy to dislike his personality, but then goes on about how much he values character guys- drafting Hill and Adams, ditching a very young and talented Felipe Lopez for a couple of mediocre college players.

Whatever- I root for the team, I like the city and I like their fans, but JP has become too much of a lightning rod as GM without the results to back it up.

Yeah, the fact that the Sox collapsed greatly due to injuries in 2006 kind of undercuts the argument that they could weather such a storm.

But if you remove the Red Sox from the equation, JP is the one who spent all that money on the players, and one of the things you pay pitchers for is durability. The bigger problem up in Toronto, though, seems to me to be the lack of a plan - I never saw what kind of team JP wanted to build, or how he was going to go about doing that. I know that Darren has argued that the Jays' plan is to win 84 games and turn a profit, but I'm both skeptical that's the case and certain that Toronto can support a big payroll winner if they'd just get around to winning.

Anyone know anything about the Toronto training/conditioning staff? I know the White Sox have a really good one, and keeps their injuries down, and the Cubs' have an Idiot Brigade.

Dan, to me the 3B situation epitomizes JP's problem- between Hinske, Koskie and Glaus (and keeping Hillenbrand as insurance for Glaus), the Jays sunk almost $16 M into the position b/c JP couldn't fix the problem. Then he signed Thomas to a 2-year deal, whcih locks up the DH. So in the event that Glaus is hurt too much to play the field, he can't move to DH. Stupid move- I don't know why they screwed around with Hillenbrand instead of going after Thomas for '06 when he was cheap. For that matter, the way he handled the Delgado situation was just embarassing. JP was complaining about how players didn't want to come to TO, then he let one who by all accounts loved the city walk away with no compensation, without even a serious and respectful offer. It was a joke.

Sure, Marty Miller would listen if the Blue Jays called.

The Leafs don't whine this much.

Dan, to me the 3B situation epitomizes JP's problem- between Hinske, Koskie and Glaus (and keeping Hillenbrand as insurance for Glaus), the Jays sunk almost $16 M into the position b/c JP couldn't fix the problem.

I'm not sure what JP did that was wrong here:

Hinske sucked in Toronto and was going to be sitting on the bench doing nothing, just like in Boston (where he's still sucking).
Koskie is out of baseball.
Hillenbrand both sucked and was an ass.
Glaus played almost injury-free in 2006, so it looked like the switch in field-turf did him some good. He produced in 2006 and he's producing in 2007 (when healthy).

And why do you say I don't like you? I think you're a Yankee fanboy who let's his fanboyishness get in the way of critical thinking sometimes but that doesn't mean I don't like you. I do.

I feel the urge to sing "Guy Love" again.

There's no need to clarify, (Oh no?)
Just let it grow more and more each day.
It's like I married my best friend,
But in a totally manly way!

It's guy love,don't compromise,
The feeeling of some other guy,
Holding up your heart into the sky.

I'll be there to care through all the lows.
I'll be there to share the highs.
It's guy love, between two guys.

He's clearly a sub-par GM. A lot of the Blue Jays sites I'm on use the excuses of injuries, but is that really not his fault? Look at the pricey core of players he's purchased: BJ Ryan (had concerns with his awkward delivery and high usage, signed to 5 year lucrative conract), AJ Burnett, Frank Thomas, Troy Glaus, and Corey Koskie (still on payroll).

The Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay trades are perfect examples of how he is inefficient.

- For 10 mil/year injury prone, poor defensive 3b, you trade a great defensive, cheaper 2b, for which no apparent replacement was ready. They kept overrated Hillenbrand for $6 million, and traded Koskie for nothing with $7 million. At the time, Russ Adams had come off a 26 error (or so) season in which he had an OPS+ of 87, and in 2006 had an OPS+ of 54. Everyone at battersbox was saying Adams should start at 2b to start the season with Hill at short. Sure enough, Adams tanked, and was eventually tried at 2b, showing their lack of foresight and poor drafting.

-Lyle Overbay is a solid player. But Dave Bush created a HUGE hole in the rotation (and had many years of service time left), Gabe Gross would have been our 4th OF, and Zach Jackson likely in the bullpen (as he's outpitching Ty Taubenheim in the minors by a lot). Hinske, Koskie or Hillenbrand would all be marginal, not severe downgrades at 1b without Overbay.

The other thing that bugs me are that his emotions seem to dictate his decisions. He's impatient and seems to be as short-sighted as a 2-year old sometimes.

- Last year Frasor was sent down to AAA early on in a fit of rage, as Baseball Prospectus put it at the time. Hinske was traded because he was an overall disapointment, yet would be great depth while Glaus was down and as a 4th OF this year, since all that was received was the right to pay him half of his contract. Schoeneweis struggled last year, prompting JP to say to other GM's: "whoever wants him can have him" in which the Reds picked him up for a now released player. Chad Gaudin is tearing it up with the A's...not sure why he traded him for Dustin Majewski when he did.

My last criticism is that his farm system has been focusd on getting college players up here fast, in larger quantities. The result, is a 5th starter and mediocre position player factory. THey just churn them out. In fact, the only pitchers JP has really developed successfully so far in 5 years are two decent reliever in Casey Janssen and Shaun Marcum. He initially wanted this idea because Billy Beane had taught that cheap service time years are important, college picks are safer and faster, etc. But when your competing with a mid-market payroll (50-80 million) against two 150+ million bohemoths, having several mediocre players fill in holes is exactly what you don't want, because you'll just keep chuggling along as a mediocre team on the whole. What you want are future stars to help carry your team.

Some additional points:

- its not just his emotions, but the horrible way he deals with PR. Standing by Gibbons after last year's embarassements shows what kind of class he has.

- the farm system is clearly mediocre. Any good points were from the previous regime. The poorness of the system will be felt in later years. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are success. But Ricky Romero is unhealthy and more of a 3rd round pick than a 6th overall pick. David Purcey is pitching well, but I'm skeptical. Once again, these guys are taking longer than even a high schooler would take. Also, the goal of drafting quick to the majors, safe college players is something he reiterated even in an interview last night on the Fan 590 (www.fan590.com)

Koskie's actually supposed to be back in June.

Chad Gaudin is tearing it up with the A's...not sure why he traded him for Dustin Majewski when he did.

If I remember right, there wasn't a spot for Gaudin on the 40 man and the Jays knew he wouldn't pass through waivers so they had to trade him. He was a 'tweener at the time--not good enough to trade for anything good, but not bad enough you could sneak him through waivers. Of course, the question remains who did the Jays keep that they didn't ahve a spot for Gaudin? I let my friends to the North answer that one as I don't know. A nifty pick up for Beane. I wished he'd traded Tim Hudson for Gaudin so that trade wouldn't look so awful.

Kevin. I agree with the roster mistakes point. But all or many of these roster mistakes I've outlined I could see coming from a million miles away. They shouldn't be so obvious that at the time, I and many other fans are thinking, what the hell? They are more than mistakes, they show his ineptitude as a GM.

It would be better for JC to do that, rather than whine about how unfair the world is to him.

Basketball's really torn the Union apart!

Honest question: What kind of manager was Buck Martinez?

Buck frequently gets in some veiled shots at Ricciardi on the O's broadcasts and the XM morning show, and it's always struck me that Ricciardi's first PR mistake might have been firing a popular media personality like that.

I think Gaudin had an option year left in his first year with the A's. I was under the impression that at first, he was traded because he was out of options. But I recall him being optioned down last year....as for the 40-man, I don't know who was on it a couple of years ago, but I can assure you with the drek that's in the system, there were some easy choices to waive. A whole bunch of them now could pass waivers.

Koskie's actually supposed to be back in June.

He was supposed to be ready in the offseason.
He was supposed to be ready for Spring Training.
He was supposed to be ready for Opening Day.

As a hockey fan, I've seen my share of players suffering from post-concussion problems. I'll believe he's coming back when I see him out on the field for at least 10 games in a row.

Relapses (see Rick DiPietro) happen all the time.

I'm just waiting for him to get fired. Gibbons is bad too, but if he's fired that's just PR and doesn't fix the problem. The thing is ownsership likes him because he made the team real cheap a few years ago when the dollar and attendance was bad. Now those things are better, payroll increases, etc...I looked it up and he probably isn't making much more than $1.5 million per year. He's signed through 2010, so it'd be kicking the can on about $5 million. So what? I hope they turn on him and realize he's not good. Poor Ted Rogers, such a good and loyal owner...

I wonder what Keith Law would have to say about all this.

He seems to be going out of his way to pile on. In yesterday's ESPN chat, Law opened by saying that he wanted people to know that the back injury he had in the spring really was a back injury. On an answer in which he was evaluating a team's starting rotation, he suggested one guy would suffer a spring training back injury in 2008 or 2009. When he was asked how soon before Gibbons was fired, he said it wouldn't be a surprise if Gibbons or some of his coaches were fired soon, but it would be a mistake since the problem is the composition of the roster, which is clearly a slam at the GM. Ricciardi may fully deserve all the criticism he gets, but it seemed somewhat tacky for Law to use the forum to continue what has pretty clearly become a feud with his ex-boss.

Buck Martinez is a fine commentator. I wouldn't want him managing my team though.

He'd do fine if he was asked to catch 100 games.

Uhhh, what the f&*k are you basing that on? His OPS+ last season was 53.

Yeah Boston has those replacements, but to say they wouldn't be in a world of trouble is asinine. Let's say they lost their closer, setup man, catcher, 3rd baseman and LF. Now, their lineup looks as such:

SS Lugo
1B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
RF Drew
LF Pena
3B Hinske
CF Crisp
C Mirabelli
2B Pedroia

That lineup is awful from 6-9.

The bullpen would also suffer significantly with an injury to Papelbon. Yeah Okajima could replace him, but who would replace Okajima? Donnelly? Then who replaces him? The cascading effect would be significant. Plus, as others have said, Boston's payroll is significantly higher than Toronto's.

Toronto needed a lot to break right to compete with Boston and New York this season. Nothing has.

I'm on Keith Law's side. Law for GM 2008! It also seems weird to me that someone in charge of handing out hundreds of millions of dollars only makes slightly more than the manager, only in the couple of million dollar range.

They should fire Ricciardi and replace him with a guy who's bad at PR, but is actually able to field a good team. He works for the Padres at the moment, and what he really needs is a job where management is behind him and the papers don't really care all that much. Toronto seems perfect.

Mirabelli is barely ok for the 40 games he plays; at 100 he'd be a disaster.

Brendan Donnelly is not much of an 8th inning option at this point; he's no better than Jeremy Accardo is, at least, in my book. He's a 6th 7th guy and a decent one at that, but part of why the Angels gave him away is that he's just not a great swing and miss guy anymore, either. I didn't forget about Okajima's Japanese work; I simply don't think we can take that and a month here and say he would be a legit stud closer, either.

As an aside, keep in mind that the Jays are effectively paying Hinske this year to be the Sox multiposition backup, too...he's on the Sox cap for something like $100 k this year (though more in actual salary).

The Jays lost their closer (Papelbon), set-up guy in Brandon League (Donnelly), their best AAA lefty in David Romero for the year (Okajima), leadoff man and RF (sort of like Coco Crisp), 3b for two weeks (Lowell), catcher (Varitek), and 4th starter in Chacin (don't know who's really equivalent here because he's a poor starter, but let's just say Wakefield).

Papelbon, Donnelly, Okajima out for the year, Coco Crisp and Varitek out for 2 months, Lowell our for two weeks, and Wakefield out for ???.

Apparently you missed the 2006 season, Kevin. Because, see, when Mirabelli had to play often he WAS a disaster. We don't have to speculate, we just saw it actually happen! I don't think 25 ABs this year changes two years and 320 of increasing suckage.

It ain't 2001 anymore. Or 2004, even.

We all like Dougie (and his diary). But he's a marginal guy at this point, and absolutely not a regular catcher for a remotely serious team.

It's those stereotypes that allowed reasonable and well informed fans to think that Kenny Williams was an idiot or that, for example, Bill Stoneman or Dayton Moore are currently idiots.

Who thinks that Dayton Moore is an idiot? (Not asked accusingly, I'm honestly curious as to who thinks he's bad.) I think the KC fanbase at least likes the guy, if only because of what he represents and how he speaks. I think he's a GM with a plan, and he is involving himself so deeply at so many levels that the Royals' success or failure will hinge on him, and that doesn't really scare me.

And this year it's 136. So what?

Unless Mirabelli has a season ending injury today, there's not much chance he finishes anywhere near that mark. Mirabelli's career OPS+ is 91. What's the odds that he has his career best year at age 36? Mirabelli's performance may be adequate as a backup, but it would certainly go down if he caught every day.

The Brewers seem to have gone the opposite direction than the Jays. The Jays have talent, but they're front loaded. The Brewers ought to have Ryan Braun up to replace Koskie, but it's an option for them and they have plenty of options around the outfield and pitching staff. Thanks in large part to the Jays and valuing depth in the first place.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/as_acquired_gaudin/

That's the Transaction Oracle comment for the Gaudin trade.

"And Mirabelli has a 136 OPS+ THIS YEAR."

In 25 ABs, spread out over 10 games. This is the guy who calls me a fanboy. Sheesh.

There's no question Mirabelli can walk and has some pop, but it's impossible to know how he'd hold up as an everyday catcher. He's never caught more than 80 games in a season, and the last time he exceeded 66 was six years ago.

And Mirabelli has a 136 OPS+ THIS YEAR.

And? Jamie Burke has a 148 OPS+ this year. Is he, too, a capable everyday catcher?

"OK. Let's say he hit that as the full time catcher. What's wrong with that? How many American league catchers are hitting over that right now?"

This is the same line of thinking that led to "Oh yeah, Jason Michaels would be a great full time player".

That's the Transaction Oracle comment for the Gaudin trade.

Whew, I was worried that I was really positive about it for the Jays at the time or something.

Mirabelli is not a good option as a full-time catcher -- yeah, there's always the chance that he'll catch lightning in a bottle, but when that happens it's a miracle. You can sometimes win when miracles happen, but I wouldn't want to rely on them.

That said, I think kevin is still basically right that the Sox are better-positioned to absorb these losses than the Jays are. If we're going to discount the notion that Mirabelli can hit this well as a full-time catcher (which I think is wise), we also need to assume that Crisp and Hinske are going to hit a lot closer to their career averages (which are 96 and an even 100, respectively) as full-time players. That's not great, but combined with the rest of the lineup and the rotation they're throwing out there, it's not 10 game losing streak bad, either.

As an aside, it's hilarious that we're talking about hypothetical injuries to a Red Sox starting outfielder, and it's not J. D. Drew.

Ah, that Gaudin thread says it all. 40-man was tight, but he still had options left. JP gave up on him after 15 innings or so, even with 12 k's, 6 walks, and albeit 6 homers and a 15 ERA. And it also brought up another one of my favourite trades: Tom Mastny for John McDonald. Does he think solid major league relievers grow on trees?

Does he think solid major league relievers grow on trees?

No, that's John Schuerholz you're thinking of.

Mike Hampton...

if the Red Sox had the injuries I've outlined above, I'd probably think they were a .500 team. Mainly because our rotation is awful and the Red Sox is quite good. That would be the difference, but having the bad rotation and the injuries has led to the 9 game losing streak. The Sox are 10+ over .500, but with their rotation mainly in tact I'd see them as .500 with all these injuries. Or around there.

He works for the Padres at the moment, and what he really needs is a job where management is behind him and the papers don't really care all that much.

I'm not sure that the papers in Toronto are as nice as people seem to think. There's 4 major dailies, plus two free ones, 3 all sports TV stations, and one radio station. There's not that much content to go around, they will get on the Jays' case.

I'm not saying it's NY or BOS, but I think it's more pressure than people give it credit for.

Whew, I was worried that I was really positive about it for the Jays at the time or something.

Nope, you nailed it. Huzzah!

There is a great mailbag where Jeff Blair, the best Blue Jays writer, answers all these questions. The first one asks how long Rogers can go before firing JP since it's clear he's not a good GM.

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070511.wsptblair11/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home/?pageRequested=all

Yup, the Red Sox got those replacements, JP.

Yeah, but it's only because of the Red Sox payroll advantage, so Ricciardi has every right to whine about it.

There is a great mailbag where Jeff Blair, the best Blue Jays writer, answers all these questions. The first one asks how long Rogers can go before firing JP since it's clear he's not a good GM.

That's an interesting point about how when a GM is hired, he might still have all the old regime's people in place, so it takes awhile to really overhaul a franchise.

But JP has his guys in place, so he really is out of excuses at this point.

Late to the game here, but it is unfair to say the Blue Jays could be as good as the Red Sox or Yankees, if they merely made perfect decisions every time on spending on the players that they needed to spend on. They are at an unfair advantage, because the Red Sox and Yankees spend money time and time again on players that do not work out, and those mistakes get buried, when they can go buy someone else. Toronto's spending mistakes become their starters, because that is all they have to spend.

I would hate to be a fan of a team in this division that didn't play in Boston or NY. I would feel about the way i would as a Royals fan; let's see if we can play .500 ball this year, maybe, if a bunch of stuff breaks right (as, with the Jays, it does on occasion).

Well, MSI might be better informed than I but I thought Martinez was a horrible game tactician. He was always bunting and giving outs away and #### like that.

SH in the AL in 2001, Martinez's only full one as manager:

CWS 63
Cle 49
Sea 48
Ana 46
TBD 45
Det 41
Bal 38
KCR 36
Tor 34
NYY 30
BoX 28
MN 25
Oak 25
Tex 25

Not the full story, but that's the only thing I know about who was giving outs away in 2001.

I don't think Ricciardi is a "bad" GM, but I think these kinds of outbursts are not what you want in a leader. It is bad PR and indicates an inability to take repsonsibility and an inability to play public politics. Not what you need in the big chair.

As far as his actual performance, the main problem has been the failure to secure high-level pre-arb talent either through the farm system or trading for guys still in the minors. Teams with mid-range to to low-range payrolls have to be able to do this to at least occasionally to be at a 90-win talent level: Atlanta, Minnesota, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Cleveland (if we assume Milwaukee and Cleveland will each win 90 this year, and I think they will) are all examples. I think that Ricciardi, in spite of his scouting background, has followed the "sabermetric" drafting model too far. I believe that it is absurdly obvious that a combined approaches (eyeballs/tools + numbers/performance) is the way to go, but it is even more important in evaluating amateurs and guys in the lower levels of the minors. Ricciardi really doesn't have, say, a Bonderman, or a Sizemore.

If I recall correctly Martinez was blasted for the job he did managing the US team in the WBC, though I don't remember the particulars.

Late to the game here, but it is unfair to say the Blue Jays could be as good as the Red Sox or Yankees, if they merely made perfect decisions every time on spending on the players that they needed to spend on.

The Jays don't need to make "perfect decisions" to contend - they merely need to stop making poor decisions (cf. the aforementioned examples involving BJ Ryan, The Shea Hey Kid, Koskie, Glaus, among others), & not go "WHA HAPPEN" when these decisions end up biting them in their Canadian bacon.

you trade a great defensive, cheaper 2b, for which no apparent replacement was ready

Speaking of which....



O-Dawg? O-[bleep] I was afraid of this.

Best Regards

John

Late to the game here, but it is unfair to say the Blue Jays could be as good as the Red Sox or Yankees, if they merely made perfect decisions every time on spending on the players that they needed to spend on.

By that rationale, the Red Sox and Yankees should have the two best records every year, and that's not the case. The Red Sox and Yanks have an advantage, but its not an advantage that is impossible to overcome.

That work better?

Best Regards

John

Regarding a GM being saddled with the previous GM's people: Would this include being saddled with Halladay and Vernon Wells? Don't this wrong AGordon Fan. What you are saying is correct and any excuses by Riccardi have worn out including the previous regime. It wasn't like he was taking over an empty shell but he did clean house in the front office once he took over as well.

That said, I think kevin is still basically right that the Sox are better-positioned to absorb these losses than the Jays are.

I think the Sox bench is a real strength; that doesn't make it one that Toronto could get.

The Sox have two legit starters and a quasi-legit starter in Cora on their bench. But they also spent real assets to get Pena and took on Hinske's deal this year (thought from a cap perspective in a very favorable way, since his money is backloaded). Toronto decided they couldn't afford to keep Hinske on their bench and wasn't really situated to get or maintain a fourth OF like Pena.

Compare the Jays bench to the Yankees, though...Toronto's is as good or better isn't it?

Regarding a GM being saddled with the previous GM's people: Would this include being saddled with Halladay and Vernon Wells? Don't this wrong AGordon Fan. What you are saying is correct and any excuses by Riccardi have worn out including the previous regime. It wasn't like he was taking over an empty shell but he did clean house in the front office once he took over as well.

Yea, I wasn't meaning it as an excuse as to why you wouldn't win, I was just meaning its a factor to consider when evaluating a GM's moves, particularly drafts early in his tenure.

Maaaaaa, the software isn't playin' nice!

 AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BA  OBP SLG *OPS+
137 19 45   9   1    5  27 .328 .390 .518   134

Best Regards

John

Y'know sumthin'? O-Dawg is havin' a heckuva year, yup yup, he shore is! Yup!

Best Regards

John

Granted its tough to be in the same division as NYY and BOS, but the Jays did beat Boston last year. They missed the playoffs because they couldn't beat Minnesota or Detroit.

IIRC, we actually held a formal on0site vote to expel JP from the sabermetric club when he signed Hillenbrand.

As to the comment about Koskie being out of baseball, you can't judge a move by the fact that the player involved had a freak career threatening injury. It was still a bad move necessitated by another bad move. And it goes further to JP's b*tching about players not wanting to come to Canada- Koskie did, he had an off year, and was run out of town less than a year after he came with all of JP's fanfare about him being the type of Canadian player the Jays needed. He's just two-faced about everything, and long-term that's going to impact players signing with the team.

Koskie is out of baseball.

Well, on the DL and still on the Jays payroll for like $5 mil or so.

Remember, Koskie didn't just get traded for literally nothing, the Jays also paid most of his salary as well.

Toronto decided they couldn't afford to keep Hinske on their bench and wasn't really situated to get or maintain a fourth OF like Pena.

Just to be clear, I'm not arguing that Toronto should have or could have had a bench as strong as Boston's; just that Boston was a bad team to pick (this year) when trying to make a point about how injuries can screw you.

Compare the Jays bench to the Yankees, though...Toronto's is as good or better isn't it?

Ironically, JP might have made his point better if he'd asked whether the Yankees have those replacements.

I say we blame JP for this, too:

I'm here in the press box, and they just made the following announcement:

Toronto Blue Jays have placed Roy Halladay on the 15 day Disabled List. He is having surgery for acute appendicitis. It is estimated he will be out for 4-6 weeks.

JP asks who is prepared for injuries? Well, look at his mentor's team.

The A's have lost their starting outfield, and only recently got 1 of their starting OF's back. That outfeilder is Nick Swisher, who is their 3rd String CF but because of a hamstring injury, isn't playing CF!

On the DL:
CF Mark Kotsay
CF Milton Bradley
DH Mike Piazza
SP Rich Harden
SP Esteban Loaiza
OF Bobby Kielty
OF Chris Denorfia

Injured on Active Roster, or just returned:
OF Chris Snelling (Day to Day)
OF Travis Buck (Day to Day)
Nick Swisher (Hamstring)
Shannon Stewart (Ankle)
Justin Duchscherer (Hip)
Dan Johnson (Torn Labrum in Hip)

And the A's have managed to stay around .500 despite all that.

And now Glaus just left the game with a leg injury, per Rotoworld.

Just terrible.

My pet theory is that when JP was working under Beane, a lot of the Moneyball(TM) concepts were still not widely held nor understood. When JP got the Jays job, no doubt part of his plan to compete against the Yanks/Sox had to be that he, Billy, and not too many others had the secret decoder ring. Unfortunately, soon enough the formerly undervalued guys were now valued by lots of teams, and JP didn't have a plan B.

Without being able to pluck talent nobody else valued, the Ricciardi plan seems to be a) let the team stagnate for a couple of years, replacing overpriced junk like Agonz and Mondesi with cheap replacements. Result: cheaper team, same results, owners happy. b) presumably build a decent to solid core of young cheap talent. JP whiffed big time here. c) Add in a bunch of top dollar guys to supplant the core and carry the team over the top. Since JP failed miserably at b) the rest is basically the types of moves any perosn who plays in a roto league could do, like paying top dollar for players like Glaus, Burnett, Ryan, Thomas, trading young guys then paying Overbay, etc.

For a guy with Moneyball roots, I count two guys on the Jays roster who are good value relative to performance, Halladay and Hill. The rest, for 2-3 years running, is paying max dollar for player of X value, and that's never going to cut it in the AL East, and is unlikely to cut it for all but a handful of really high-spending teams.

Of course it's the %$$^@%@!$% Red Sox and Yankees fault. And this guy will still be at it 3 years from now, and at some point, there will be a call to send JP and Matt Millen off on a barge together so sports fans can all move on to other things.