This bit is pretty much what we used to call “Clutch Pitching”. I think there’s plenty of research open in this area, if you can get past the sample sizes.
One problem I have with saying Furcal is worth $18 mil is that no one gets paid $18 mil, so there’s something wonky in the math=> interpretation “based on what MLB teams paid”. There’s something off in that, but I can’t put my finger on it.
I forwarded that girlfriend link to my wife - it’s excellent.
That is sad, and I wish his family the best.
Other recent THT pieces I want to comment on, but don’t want to glut the links - Maybe I’ll do a THT blog, and critique the work weekly (and weakly):
Daily Graphing - I like this site, and had been otherwise, but I’m glad THT has highlighted it
Graphing Jacque Jones
I wonder if there is good research on a decline in LD% as one ages - I assume that is what occurs, but I don’t know for sure.
Graphing Heath Bell
Here’s where watching games matters - Bell leaves the ball up more in the majors - or did in ‘05. Hitters adjust and wait on that mistake and drive it. One of the problems with absorbing into DIPS is that you “forget” that second part - the hitter: if any pitchers throws balls in the middle of the plate, they’ll get ripped - Think of that 9-square chart of a hitter’s hot zones - Bell spent too much time in those zones. If he doesn’t *adjust*, and that isn’t a luck factor, he’ll not get back. In AAA, more players miss those pitches (as evident that the vast majority don’t make it in the majors).
Dan Fox (?)
I have some work on this to publish here, but not with this conclusion (not an opposite conclusion - I was looking at something else).
But Dan hints that managers don’t bunt with “worse” bunters often enough. I think the bunting skill isn’t as gaussian as one would assume - people who rarely bunt are particularly bad, and give up DPs at a damagingly higher rate. I assert without proof.
More THT as the weeks come.