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Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Three Moves The Red Sox Should Make - Tony Massarotti - Boston.com

1. Trade Jake Peavy.
2. Trade Will Middlebrooks, Garin Cecchini or Deven Marrero (or some combination of the three).
3. Trade Felix Doubront or Andrew Miller – or both.

1. If they can get something truly useful for him (like a good young outfielder), trade him. If not, hold onto him.
2. It’s always good to trade players when they have the most value. With Middlebrooks and Cecchini, that’s definitely not the case. Although Marrero has had a really good year, I suspect most teams are like me and would like to see him hit again next season or in the AFL before really investing in getting him.
3. Doubront is in a similar place to Middlebrooks and Cecchini. I’d try to reclaim some of his value before I ship him off. Miller, on the other hand, has never pitched better. For now, I’d keep him. If the team keeps playing well and is closer to the top of division near the end of the month, the Red Sox will certainly be able to use him down the stretch. If the team goes 0-6 the next week, by all means get what they can for him.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 22, 2014 at 08:23 AM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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   1. Daniel in Toronto Posted: July 22, 2014 at 08:44 AM (#4755589)
Should the Red Sox sell? Even with this current hot streak, they are still pretty far back. When was the last time a team was 10 under .500 in mid-July (or 5-under in late July) and made the post-season?

Should they trade Koji?
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 08:59 AM (#4755595)
Should they trade Koji?

Yes. Lackey too.
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:00 AM (#4755598)
trolololololol
   4. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:04 AM (#4755600)
Should the Red Sox sell?


I don't think so. Even if they don't get back into it (and they're only 7.5 out, the division sucks) it gets to some of Jim's intro. The guys they could get something for (Napoli, Miller, Koji, Lester) are all under contract or should be re-signed. Guys like Peavy, Gomes, etc...aren't going to bring anything in return to make it worthwhile. Obviously that's a general view. If someone overpays badly then you make a move.

Generally the best thing for the Sox is to just keep rolling with it. Punting AJ and bringing up Vazquez has been a bigger impact that I expected. Vazquez' defense and pitch framing are crazy good and he's hit so far (obviously won't keep hitting like this).

Mazz' column is my least favorite type of column. All his suggestions are worthless without getting into specifics. I mean sure, clear up the left side IF logjam but there is no rush. The Sox are probably better off hanging onto all those guys then trying to make some kind of big deal in the winter. Stanton is obviously the guy everyone is geeked up for but it doesn't have to be him. The Sox need a slugging outfielder and it's likely that the guys mentioned in item 2 are going to be part of that deal (though not the centerpieces).
   5. JE (Jason) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:05 AM (#4755601)
Should they trade Koji?

Sure, as long as they don't expect a Huston Street-like haul in return.
   6. Nasty Nate Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:13 AM (#4755603)
I was the optimist for the first few months, expecting some bounce-back just around the corner. And then they were swept at home by the Cubs and I had to concede that they should be sellers. But now they have won some games, NYY lost Tanaka, and the Jays are sinking like old truck radiators into Lake Ontario - I don't know what to think.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:15 AM (#4755605)
The guys they could get something for (Napoli, Miller, Koji, Lester) are all under contract or should be re-signed.

Napoli, I agree, since he's signed for 2015. But trading a player now doesn't preclude resigning him.

If you plan to try and resign FAs to be, trading them now makes even more sense, b/c you're not forfeiting a QO draft pick (only applies to Lester).
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:22 AM (#4755608)
If you plan to try and resign FAs to be, trading them now makes even more sense, b/c you're not forfeiting a QO draft pick


I agree. Holding onto relievers and role players just to get the edge on re-signing them as FA's is simply not good policy (although holding on to them to try to win is). Lester is a different situation, and not only because of the QO/draft pick.
   9. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:22 AM (#4755609)
Um, how is trading 6 players 3 moves? I can see it if it is trade Peavy for X, trade the middle 3 for y, trade the last 2 for z. That's 3 moves. But he just lists 6 players who should be traded and calls it 3 moves. Nit picky I know, but it's still silly.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:23 AM (#4755610)
Lester is a different situation, and not only because of the QO/draft pick.

Well, if you want to extend him, do it now. If not, ask him if he wants to go to a contender.
   11. DKDC Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:56 AM (#4755630)
They should obviously see how the next week plays out, but If they are still sitting 7+ games out of the division with 7 teams in front of them for a wild card spot, they should sell.

They've shown they can sell and go out and reload and compete and even win it all the following year, so I think the fans will get it.

And although free agency will always be the lifeblood of their talent pipeline, this is a team sorely in need of some young talent to make the job of filling out a contender with the checkbook easier.
   12. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 10:47 AM (#4755654)
Should the Red Sox sell?


Yes. They're 7.5 back of a bad division (*), are 5 games under .500, have been outscored by 17 runs on the year. Granted the second WC may change the analysis if you're close to the border, but they should just wave the white flag anyway.

(*) People think it's a good thing that they're in a bad division, but if you're in a bad division and still are far back, what does that tell you about the quality of your team?

They should look to work out trades with the following players, getting the players to agree if necessary: Napoli, Victorino, Gomes, Koji, Nava, Ortiz, Ross, Drew, Lackey, Peavy.

These players would be ok to hang onto or try to re-sign: Lester, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Bradley, Betts, Vazquez, Bucholz.

I wouldn't want to bet that Napoli will stay healthy and productive.

Doubront and Middlebrooks won't fetch much in trade so, while they may not be all that good, you might as well hang onto them.

I honestly haven't looked to see whether Brock Holt is for real, but I suspect not. If that's true maybe you shine his sparkly batting average in someone's eyes and get them to overpay for him.

Not sure what Gomes is still doing on the club. Or what Drew was ever doing on the team this year.
   13. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 10:55 AM (#4755659)
Have they been more streaky than the average middling team this year? They have a 10 game losing streak, followed immediately by a 7 game winning streak, followed immediately by a 5 game losing streak.

They also have a 3 game winning streak followed by a 3 game losing streak.

They also have a 4 game losing streak, followed by a 3 game winning streak, followed by a loss, followed by the current 5 game winning streak.
   14. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 22, 2014 at 10:57 AM (#4755660)
Or what Drew was ever doing on the team this year.

He's hitting a little last 2 weeks

I had him in my NL only Roto team a few years, he's a frustrating guy even after you realize that he's never gonna be the player some thought he'd become, he's inconsistent rate stat wise and he's gotten inconsistent with respect to staying in the lineup.

He's the type of guy who if I was a GM I'd never ever offer more than a 2 year deal tops (and whether or not he'd be subject to draft pick compensation really doesn't enter into that)

   15. Nasty Nate Posted: July 22, 2014 at 11:06 AM (#4755663)
They should look to work out trades with the following players, getting the players to agree if necessary: Napoli, Victorino, Gomes, Koji, Nava, Ortiz, Ross, Drew, Lackey, Peavy.

I wouldn't want to bet that Napoli will stay healthy and productive.

Why trade the bolded players? Why weaken the 2015 team so much?

Who is a better bet than Napoli to be productive for them at 1B in 2015 that they could plausibly acquire at a reasonable cost?
   16. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 22, 2014 at 11:09 AM (#4755664)

I honestly haven't looked to see whether Brock Holt is for real, but I suspect not. If that's true maybe you shine his sparkly batting average in someone's eyes and get them to overpay for him.


He's got a .394 BABIP so he's not .326/.369/.457 for real but I think he's a legitimate player. For a rookie who is going to be cheap for the next few years a guy who is as versatile as Holt has a hell of a lot of value even if he hits .270/.320/.400. That's a pretty nice little utility player getting 300-350 PA a year.
   17. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 22, 2014 at 11:11 AM (#4755665)
Lackey is still under that weird contract where he's earning the league minimum next year, right?

Seems like the sort of guy you'd want to hang on to.
   18. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 11:17 AM (#4755668)
Yeah, my thinking was that Lackey is getting old but I didn't realize they're only paying him 11 mil next year and they do have a neat little option for 2016:

Club option at minimum for 2015 if Lackey misses significant time 2010-2014 due to an elbow injury

Yeah, he's someone you hold onto (pending a ridiculous offer for him in return, of course, which I don't see comnig).
   19. Buzzkill Posted: July 22, 2014 at 11:39 AM (#4755677)
I love these conversations about the reigning World Champions. IMO they are playing with house money - let it ride. If Rubby and Clay keep pitching well, they can climb back up. Especially if they grow some beards.
   20. Sonic Youk Posted: July 22, 2014 at 12:02 PM (#4755689)
This team buried itself, but they're pretty worth watching right now. Jackie Bradley in particular has completely turned his season around, and has a massive change in his k rate and batted balls to back it up. Hard to believe, but he's on pace for at least a 2 win season.
   21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 12:03 PM (#4755690)
It’s always good to trade players when they have the most value. With Middlebrooks and Cecchini, that’s definitely not the case.


Just because those guys used to have more value than they do now doesn't mean that their value right now isn't as high as it'll ever be from here on out.
   22. Chip Posted: July 22, 2014 at 12:16 PM (#4755695)
this is a team sorely in need of some young talent to make the job of filling out a contender with the checkbook easier.


Obviously unfamiliar with the current Red Sox roster or the farm system.

   23. villageidiom Posted: July 22, 2014 at 12:42 PM (#4755709)
Yes. They're 7.5 back of a bad division (*), are 5 games under .500, have been outscored by 17 runs on the year.
So, it's over?
   24. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: July 22, 2014 at 12:43 PM (#4755710)
This team buried itself, but they're pretty worth watching right now. Jackie Bradley in particular has completely turned his season around, and has a massive change in his k rate and batted balls to back it up. Hard to believe, but he's on pace for at least a 2 win season.


Yeah, Bradley's defense has been crazy good. Lester should really send him a thank you card with a check in it after he signs his huge contract.

If Bradley actually hit his projections going in to the year, he'd be a 3-4 win player.
   25. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 01:19 PM (#4755731)
Top 5 "players to be named later" included in past deals per WAR:

1. David Ortiz: 46 WAR
2. Coco Crisp: 31 WAR
3. Marco Scutaro: 22 WAR
4. Gio Gonzalez: 15 WAR
5. Michael Brantley: 11 WAR

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11246571/mlb-five-top-players-named-later
   26. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 22, 2014 at 06:18 PM (#4755938)
There is no way they trade Ortiz. He's by far the best DH in the league. There's no reason to get rid of him. You won't get anyone for him that would help the team next year.
   27. Walt Davis Posted: July 22, 2014 at 07:30 PM (#4755970)
Bradley is just having a bizarre season. Since "going back to what used to work", his K-rate has gone from 30% to 15% which is pretty absurd. Meanwhile his walk rate has also been cut to 6-7%. A good tradeoff obviously as there's no way a hitter like this can survive with a 30% K-rate. But his hot streak (319/365/391) relies on an unsustainable 379 BABIP. Still, 270/320/350 is enough in today's game for a good CF.

Clearly Napoli and Ortiz aren't going anywhere. Hard to imagine anybody's interested much in Victorino until he shows he's healthy and can hit again. Drew? Ha. Guys like Gomes, Ross, Carp can be moved but won't bring anything back. Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Koji, Miller are all eminently tradable and I'd probably shift all three of the starters unless they really want Lester back (and hasn't he already turned down a decent extension offer) unless of course the offer for Lester isn't as good as the draft pick comp after the QO. Or Lackey if they can work out an extension.

In our earlier Lackey thread, most of us including me seem to be of the opinion that there is almost no chance that Lackey pitches for the minimum next year. It's just too valuable to use the leverage of that deal to get him relatively cheap for the next 2-3 seasons and either the Red Sox or some other team will want to do that. If the Red Sox genuinely believe they'll have Lackey for the minimum next year then they won't want to trade him.
   28. Dale Sams Posted: July 22, 2014 at 07:39 PM (#4755975)
1. If Holt's glove is for real then he can be Zobrist with less pop. (Provided he doesn't hurt himself. That would have been so Red Sox last night if he came down on his ankle, snapped it and was never the same)

2. I would move Drew, Doubront or Peavy, Miller or Breslow for one good prospect regardless of whether the Sox are in to win.
   29. Nasty Nate Posted: July 22, 2014 at 08:08 PM (#4755985)
It makes no sense for the Sox to trade Victorino or Napoli: they fit the Sox' situation better than other teams' and the Sox shouldn't and won't be punting 2015.
   30. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 22, 2014 at 08:53 PM (#4756005)
It makes no sense for the Sox to trade Victorino or Napoli: they fit the Sox' situation better than other teams' and the Sox shouldn't and won't be punting 2015.


I'm pretty sure you agree with me but I'll say it anyway...the Sox shouldn't be punting 2014. I don't understand this rush people have had all year to just give up on the season. Yeah they're back a bit (7 1/2 in the division) with a bunch of teams ahead of them but it's not like they are 20 games out. It's almost like people are afraid to have them do well because then they have to root for them and actually care and maybe, just maybe be disappointed in the end.

I would move Drew, Doubront or Peavy, Miller or Breslow for one good prospect regardless of whether the Sox are in to win.


Do you honestly think the Sox would get a good prospect for any of those guys? Maybe Miller but even he isn't bringing much in return I don't think.
   31. Dale Sams Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:19 PM (#4756017)
Do you honestly think the Sox would get a good prospect for any of those guys


Not any. All.
   32. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:30 PM (#4756021)
Not any. All.


A good prospect for a bunch of mediocre players? I doubt a team who didn't already have them would even want to use up roster spots for all of those players.
   33. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:33 PM (#4756023)
Not any. All.


That's a Baseball Mogul trade. When do you ever see such a deal? I can't imagine it happening. I mean hey, if someone DOES offer them such a deal by all means do it but I'd be shocked.
   34. Dale Sams Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:39 PM (#4756025)
That's a Baseball Mogul trade. When do you ever see such a deal? I can't imagine it happening. I mean hey, if someone DOES offer them such a deal by all means do it but I'd be shocked.


Oh I agree. You almost never see it. I don't know why, but you don't. I suspect that other teams rather than seeing Doubront filling in the back of a rotation, Drew filling a black hole at SS and Miller being the set-up man.... they see a big steaming pile of ####. (Other than Miller)
   35. Select Storage Device Posted: July 22, 2014 at 10:24 PM (#4756048)
Not any. All.


Heeeee Heeeee. Here, you throw this away.

I don't know why, but you don't.


Has to be a matter of: "If you need this type of trade, you must think you are a contender, but, if you need this type of trade, WHY do you think you are a contender?" At least in July.

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