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Monday, July 16, 2012

THT: Jaffe: The great 28 (part 1 of 2)

Chris explains…“This is one I’ve been looking forward to for a long time - and I think some BTFrs might like it, given that it’s based on an old thread there.

It’s called “The great 28, part 1 of 2” and it’s me asking SG to put 28 of the best teams of all-time in his 1,000 season simulator to see who is the best.  The same thing happened in Count the Rings years ago, but this time I get to do all the choosing (and next week I’ll provide the results of the 1000 sims, and I know from CTR years ago many were uncertain what the results of the 1000 sims were).”

1961 New York Yankees (109-53 actual record, 103-59 pythag record)

Despite winning 109 contests, I considered leaving this team out. Or I considered leaving them in and pushing the 1953 Yankees out as there is some overlap between the squads with their key players, Hall of Famers Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, and Whitey Ford. But if we’re going to bend the overlap rule a little bit, this is the time to do it. The Yankees won 14 out of 16 pennants from 1949-64, so giving them two representative from eight years apart seems reasonable.

1968 Detroit Tigers (103-59 actual record, 103-59 pythag record)

Though not usually thought of as a historically great team, they led the league in runs scored, fewest runs allowed, had a great actual record, a great pythag record, and won a world title. That’s a nifty combination.

1969 Baltimore Orioles (109-53 actual record, 110-52 pytahg record)

Damn few teams win 109 games while underachieving their pythag record. They won 108 games and a world title in 1970, but with “only” 104 pythag wins in that season.

Repoz Posted: July 16, 2012 at 11:07 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, sabermetrics

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   1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 16, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4183784)
When this was tried back in the day at the Count the Ringz blog here, it was a clear failure. The 1954 Indians dominated by virtue of the clever deployment of Joe Ginsburg (1-for-2 with a triple in 1954) and Jim Dyck (1-for-2 with a walk) as the ultimate high-leverage pinch hitters.

I'm interested, but I'm surprised Chris didn't mention any plans to fix that bug.
   2. Sunday silence Posted: July 16, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4183811)
Isnt there a general problem here because a teams record is very much related to the level of competition; and how do you separate out the talent on the team from the level of competition they are playing against. If you are attempting to compare across eras this problem seems almost insurmountable. Say a 108 win Yankee team from the expansion era vs a 95 win team from a highly competitive era. It seems like there is no way to separate out which of these is the cause.

Or rather than that, they simply plug in plausible line ups and see where the positive events bunch up and where the runs score and whoever has the best record at this? But then how does one account for pitching changes? Seems difficult task.
   3. SG Posted: July 16, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4183818)
I'm interested, but I'm surprised Chris didn't mention any plans to fix that bug.


The bug was fixed.
   4. Damon Rutherford Posted: July 16, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4184004)
I believe the outcome will be considerably dependent upon each team's Manager Profile (MPs) with the Diamond Mind Baseball game, especially since the selected 28 teams are all very good to excellent and thus have a thin line between them.

Unless I overlooked it, I believe Jaffe has not (yet) presented any details regarding how these were set. The MPs can be very specific with regards to individual player and team settings for a multitude of choices, such as stealing, being aggressive on the base paths, platooning, frequency of pick-offs, guarding the corners on defense, swinging away on 3-0 pitches.

You can also set how often your backup catcher starts and other bench guys, late-inning defense replacements, injury replacements, six different saved lineups vs LHP and/or RHP and vs DH and/or no-DH, four-man or five-man rotations with a strict or skip option, various relief pitching roles, etc., etc.

Are these MPs painstakingly set for each contending team and its players, with, of course, an emphasis on accounting for the strengths and weaknesses of each? And by strengths and weaknesses, that includes ALL of them. For example, is each SP's hold rating for possible base stealers considered, and his propensity to throw to first increased or decreased accordingly? Are excellent base stealers told to run at will while the rest of the team is told to NEVER steal? Will the hit-and-run setting be adjusted to account for the speed and contact ability of each team?

It is also difficult for SP with real-life 250+ IP to effectively match their sim total with their real-life total, especially if their profiles are not set properly.

And if many of these strategies and profiles are not set properly for a team, that team will easily suffer within the sims.

Thus (1) more details please regarding how the sim is conducted; or a link to a past article explaining this and (2) I am skeptical of the results, even with the disclaimer that "Now, admittedly, this isn’t scientific, and the debate will always go on as to what the best teams are." Although you could make it scientific if one had the patience, skills, knowledge, and intelligence.
   5. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: July 16, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4184070)
You can also set how often your backup catcher starts and other bench guys, late-inning defense replacements, injury replacements, six different saved lineups vs LHP and/or RHP and vs DH and/or no-DH, four-man or five-man rotations with a strict or skip option, various relief pitching roles, etc., etc.

Holy crap, really? Admittedly I haven't upgraded OOTP since version 8, but maybe I should switch to DMB. That sounds awesome.
   6. Dag Nabbit has the talking pillow Posted: July 16, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4184156)
Damon,

I haven't presented any detail on manager setting. I don't know the details. I just gave a list of teams. I've never played, owned, or even seen a DMB league or game in my life.

It's not scientific, as I noted, and even with your specifications I still don't think it would be scientific. The whole debate over the best/worst teams ever is not scientific. It's water cooler conversation. It's fun.

   7. thetailor Posted: July 16, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4184200)
While acknowledging that this is for fun and not scientific, etc... I agree with #2 above about the issue with shifts in talent across eras. I don't think anyone here thinks that a team from the 1950's or 1920's has a chance in hell against a team of super-athletes from 2012.

That said, I think the assumption of the simulation will be that these teams will be judged on how they performed against their competition at the time. And that's great. However, it doesn't seem fair to have that standard applied to teams pre-1910 when baseball was barely baseball ... I'm willing to discount training/integration/conditioning for teams from the 1920's and forward, but it'd be a really disappointing sim if some team of sharecroppers from 1898 was competitive IMO.
   8. Sunday silence Posted: July 16, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4184355)
the 1869 Red Stockings might still be the best...
   9. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 16, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4184387)
geez damon, not everything requires serious protocols

um, its called 'fun'

check it out
   10. Best Regards, L.M. Posted: July 16, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4184411)
I'm interested, but I'm surprised Chris didn't mention any plans to fix that bug.
Since it was written at THT, not BTF, I'm not surprised he didn't mention that the bug was fixed.
   11. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: July 16, 2012 at 10:08 PM (#4184426)
What always interested me about this sort of undertaking is doing it with a True Talent Level spin. IE, somehow coming up with actual talent levels for the players on each team based on everything you know about them and then having the contest. Removing the Johnny Blanchard factor so to speak.

Now how the hell you pull that off, I don't begin to know, but I think that might be closer to being what we think of as the best team ever.
   12. Damon Rutherford Posted: July 16, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4184496)
geez damon, not everything requires serious protocols

um, its called 'fun'

check it out


Yes, but when I play RISK, I don't simply attack willy-nilly at whatever damn country/territory/region I please, and hope it all works out in the end. It is more fun for me to think a few moves ahead, to carefully deploy my army, and to attack with purpose and when the odds are in my favor.

Thus, if I am going to use a baseball simulator for an exercise to see how the best teams of all time fare against each other, then I am going to use the simulator's settings to the best of my ability and take the time to give each team any advantage I can.

And why should prepping Diamond Mind baseball for this exercise be considered a "serious protocol"? If you're going to use DMB, at least use it to its fullest extent and do it ####### right.

And perhaps it was. Pretty please with a cherry on top, provide some of that information.





   13. Damon Rutherford Posted: July 17, 2012 at 12:03 AM (#4184501)
What always interested me about this sort of undertaking is doing it with a True Talent Level spin. IE, somehow coming up with actual talent levels for the players on each team based on everything you know about them and then having the contest. Removing the Johnny Blanchard factor so to speak.

A couple of ways you could do this:

1. For each player on each of the hand-selected "best" teams, take the best True Talent Level season of his career and add that to the "team". If you had all of the DMB season disks, I believe you can copy and paste players from one season disk to another. So you could start with a "blank" season disk and copy and paste hundreds of players into it, forming your best teams.

2. You could start with the league file already created by SG that contains all the best teams, and you could tweak each player's multitude of ratings, batting table, and/or pitching table to adjust his value to a "True Talent" level. One tricky part would be re-doing the batting and pitching tables with regards to which park factors to use. Might be easier to copy and paste like in (1) above and then do some tweaking.

This would take a lot of time, but I would bet, for some, it would be FUN to do.
   14. Dag Nabbit has the talking pillow Posted: July 17, 2012 at 12:21 AM (#4184511)
Damon,

As I noted above, I've never played, owned, or even seen Diamond Mind Baseball. I wouldn't even know where to begin with all this, and I'm not going to purchase it just for a few articles.

I feel I impose enough on SG by asking him to run these things. He's a busy man and I always appreciate it when he does any of these favors. So I don't get into asking a bunch of questions on settings - because I literally have no idea what I'm asking about. Again, I don't really know anything about DMB.

If that's not good enough for you, then I'm sorry. Feel free to ignore this and next week's article.
   15. The District Attorney Posted: July 17, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4184513)
Alternatively, please use Universal Baseball Association rules.
   16. Damon Rutherford Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:03 AM (#4184528)
You can also set how often your backup catcher starts and other bench guys, late-inning defense replacements, injury replacements, six different saved lineups vs LHP and/or RHP and vs DH and/or no-DH, four-man or five-man rotations with a strict or skip option, various relief pitching roles, etc., etc.

Holy crap, really? Admittedly I haven't upgraded OOTP since version 8, but maybe I should switch to DMB. That sounds awesome.


Really, really.

I recently joined an OOTP 13 league, and I'm curious to see how OOTP's latest and greatest compares to DMB v10a.
   17. KJOK Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4184529)
I think SG does make some tweaks to the Manager Profiles for the yearly pre-season forecasts, but for this the default settings, as long as they're the same for every team, along with using the 'real-life playing time' Diamond Mind options, should work just fine.

What always interested me about this sort of undertaking is doing it with a True Talent Level spin. IE, somehow coming up with actual talent levels for the players on each team based on everything you know about them and then having the contest. Removing the Johnny Blanchard factor so to speak.


About the only good option (that wouldn't take a year or more) would be to use the historical Marcels:


Historical Marcel Forecasts

There's a way to import them into DMB, but then you still have to manually fix all the fielding ratings, pitcher durability, baserunning ratings, etc. But it is doable.

   18. Damon Rutherford Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4184539)
As I noted above, I've never played, owned, or even seen Diamond Mind Baseball. I wouldn't even know where to begin with all this, and I'm not going to purchase it just for a few articles.

The basic game without any season disks is $30. $155 for the eight "All time greatest teams" sets, which is think by my quick estimated count, runs you about $1 per team. I'm curious to see if one of your selected teams is NOT included in the sets, which would be odd likely in DMB's selection, not yours.

So, yes, $185 can be considered pricey.

I feel I impose enough on SG by asking him to run these things. He's a busy man and I always appreciate it when he does any of these favors. So I don't get into asking a bunch of questions on settings - because I literally have no idea what I'm asking about. Again, I don't really know anything about DMB.


At the least, if SG is pulling the best teams from season disks, especially the "deluxe" ones, then I believe DMB DOES INDEED have MPs already in place for each team. That's pretty cool. For example, for the 1948 Indians (the Kiddo Davis Baseball League is currently re-playing the 1948 season), Lemon threw 290 IP. DMB in the '48 season disk has set the "Using relievers" and "Using closers" options to NEVER for Lemon, while the team selection for the two aforementioned settings are LESS FREQUENT and LEAST FREQUENT, respectively. The Indians are also on a four-man TIME rotation.

I also see team settings vary slightly from team to team for their '48 season settings, thus they're not simply selecting NEUTRAL for all and expecting the user to tweak 'em all as desired (which one certainly could still do).

Thus at first glance, it appears DMB already does the bulk of the work (whether it is mostly sound choices or not remains to be determined) for simming purposes.

But I can see why previous sim attempt(s) had/have recruited "owners" for each great team to tweak the MPs before the simming occurred. That perhaps becomes an exercise in "gaming the system" though to take what is given and use one's knowledge about DMB and its tendencies and biases to maximize one's team's production. But that is what a Manager is suppose to do, yes!?

So I likely answered my own questions above, but HW can still go suck a lemon!

   19. The District Attorney Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4184540)
How about an onion? He wears one on his belt.
   20. Damon Rutherford Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:48 AM (#4184541)
Heh, now I will picture HW looking like Liam Cunningham playing Davos Seaworth, aka The Onion Knight, on "Game of Thrones."
   21. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4184543)
About the only good option (that wouldn't take a year or more) would be to use the historical Marcels:


You'd use the Marcels for the following year, right?
   22. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:26 AM (#4184545)
The only problem with the historical Marcels is that for say the 1921 season, I'd also like to use info from 1922 and 1923 as well as 1919 and 1920.
   23. KJOK Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:54 AM (#4185743)
You'd use the Marcels for the following year, right?

That's how I would do it.


The only problem with the historical Marcels is that for say the 1921 season, I'd also like to use info from 1922 and 1923 as well as 1919 and 1920


yes, that might be even better, but you'd have to average the 5 seasons together first, then import them into a shell of the Lahman database, then import that into DMB, AND THEN you still have to set up all the ratings like fielding, baserunning, bunting, pitcher durability, etc. - that's a LOT of work in Diamond Mind - enough that you'd probably want to use OOTP or something that allows easier data importing to get to a useable file.

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