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1. Artie Ziff Posted: March 12, 2010 at 02:56 PM (#3477967)Agreed. I think he has no chance at the HOF, rightly or wrongly.
He wouldn't be an embarassment to the Hall (except in a 'Wow, wasn't he the guy tossing around his girlfriend at some dive bar' way), but there are much better players who suffered similar fates.
If he were somehow elected to the HoF, would that automatically invalidate those annual "Brian Giles is the most underrated player in the game claims?"
He was good out there, but he's not Ozzie Smith.
(I checked Rally's WAR to be sure that at least some numbers line up with my thoughts, and Omar is 20 wins behind Ozzie -- 64.7 to 43.9. Not to mention, at least Ozzie posted above average OBPs towards the end of his career -- Vizquel was league average or worse).
I'd be stunned if he did. He may get elected if he's mistaken as Ozzie II, but I can't imagine he'll be ushered right in.
Giles 7835 PA 287 HR 1078 RBI 291/400/502 136 OPS+
Smith 8050 PA 314 HR 1092 RBI 287/366/489 137 OPS+
WClark 8283 PA 284 HR 1205 RBI 303/384/497 137 OPS+
J Clark 8225 PA 340 HR 1180 RBI 267/379/476 137 OPS+
Giles has got no business in the HoF, and won't get in. His slash lines look gaudy, but that's just the era he played in.
He needed 2000-3000 more PA, or to play further up the defensive spectrum to belong.
Or things won't happen like that at all. It's probably too early to tell.
I agree with your last part (he won't get in), but depending on the size of your HoF, he's got a reasonable case. Two of the three guys you compare him to - Reggie Smith and Will Clark - are in the Hall of Merit, for example. Smith played a fair bit of CF and Clark's got 450 PAs on Giles, so I could see seeding him behind both of them. And Jack Clark seems to get no Hall-of-Merit love. But I think Giles will at least warrant a serious conversation at the Hall of Merit five years from now.
Giles ain't got a chance in hell.
(None of this being a "wrong or right" judgment on my part, just my perception of the media and how this'll swing out)
Well, it would have to be a pretty big Hall, and I'm no more than a medium-Hall guy.
The only RF/LF/1B type with similar PA/OPS+ in the HoF is Bill Terry, who seems like a pretty weak HoFer to me. Although, I'm not really sure why he didn't get a real shot at MLB until he was 27.
It just seems like all the guys in his OPS+ range that are actually in the HoF have either a lot more quantity (Reggie, Kaline, Paul Waner) or play a premier defensive position (Vaughan) or both (Brett).
Who is they? Some small subset of the rather large pool of guys with HoF votes, the vast majority of whom we have no idea where they stand on Vizquel.
Yes, a few guys believe Omar's definitely a Hall of Famer. Twenty-two percent of the electorate thought Jack Morris was a Hall of Famer when he first appeared on the ballot, and he's still not in and not likely to get voted in by the BBWAA. Add to that the electorate is changing. Advanced metrics are slowly gaining acceptance in the mainstream. Rob and Keith and others like them will be voting a few years into Omar's candidacy. And when he does appear on the ballot, there may still be a substantial backlog of deserving candidates the electorate is sorting through.
I'm not saying he won't go in. I'm saying it's way too early to tell, regardless if a handful of guys are already convinced of his Cooperstown bonafides.
How different would Giles's case look if the Pirates hadn't been so determined to push him out of CF after ~300 games?
Not that there's any shame in that, but that would really take the wind out of an HoF sails -- he's such a poor hitter he almost has to be Ozzie's equal with the glove to have a case. (Actually, per Rally's WAR, he'd have to be an even better fielder. Eek)
Fair enough, but from the way I see him generally treated in the media, it leads me to believe he'll pretty easily get in. Of course any number of things could happen between now and then - hell, a steroids revelation could come out or something stupid.
But if the discussion is about whether, as of right now, you think Vizquel will get in or not, I see far more reason to lead toward the "in" side.
And I think you're giving the pace of change within the BBWAA way too much credit.
"Rob and Keith and others like them" still represent a laughably smaller subset of the voting population than the Jack Morris types.
And there is absolutely no way Giles can get in before Jim Edmonds who is way more underrated in my book given his fielding contribution (WAR = Edmonds - 66.6, Giles - 42.7)
I also can't say Vizquel going in before Tejada. They come out about even in WAR but Tejada's MVP and offense would seem to be preferred. They are both borderline and Tejada's B-12 shots and Vizquel's shots at Jose Mesa aren't going to help their causes...
Obviously, but in a system where 75 percent of the voters have to approve a guy's candidacy, then the movement into the BBWAA of more analytical types is going to have a greater impact on keeping undeserving guys out (and less of an impact on getting deserving guys in).
"At the tail end of a Hall of Fame-caliber career, Omar Vizquel..."
ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/news/story?id=4980542
"While Vizquel would love to add 3,000 hits to his long list of accomplishments that likely will make him a first-ballot Hall of Famer..."
MLB.com (Gammons): http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100302&content_id=8650316&vkey=news_mlb&fext;=.jsp&c_id=mlb
"José Iglesias, the 20-year-old Cuban refugee shortstop with the hands of future Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel...."
NESN: http://www.nesn.com/2010/03/newlook-white-sox-to-rely-on-strong-pitching-improved-defense-in-2010.html
"Future Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel will spend his 22nd..."
All in the past month.
Giles actually played a decent amount of CF in his earlier years with the Pirates, but not as much or as well as Smith.
But if the discussion is about whether, as of right now, you think Vizquel will get in or not, I see far more reason to lead toward the "in" side.
Two things about Omar's chances... first, it's unlikely that the ballot will have cleared up much by 2016, or whenever he's first eligible. It's one thing to write "Omar Vizquel, Future HOF" articles; it's another thing entirely to actually use one of your 10 votes on him in the middle of an incredibly deep field of candidates.
Second, Omar received virtually no MVP support during his career. If I'm not mistaken (it's been a couple years since I first looked at this), he would be the first (position player) BBWAA electee who did that badly in the MVP voting.
Omar feels like an old school VC choice. But given that we don't have the old school VC any more, who the heck knows.
On the other hand he has a bad knee. Who is to say that if he played CF his whole career he wouldn't have ceased being a strong offensive player 5 years younger like, for example, Bernie Williams? It's worthy of debate, but you have to consider both sides of the coin.
Another fair point, but right now, the general media sentiment seems to be overwhelmingly in his favor.
I also said I would be shocked if it took more than 3-5 tries, but I also wouldn't at all be shocked if it took, say, the full five. The backlog is going to clear up eventually. And however incredibly deep the field may be, 10 votes leaves a whole lot of breathing room for the guy you pegged as a future Hall of Famer only five years ago.
Omar Vizquel ain't going in my Hall of Fame, but I'll be floored if he doesn't get into Cooperstown.
edit: I suppose I'd let him into my "Hall of Fun to Watch" though.
Well, he's not on the ballot yet. Just how many "Omar Vizquel, a guy who's had a nice career but shouldn't sniff the Hall of Fame" columns are you expecting while the guy is still active?
Not until he was old, though. I was imagining a world where Giles played CF until the trade to SD, say. A half-and-half career, like Andre Dawson.
With the possible sole exception of Kenny Lofton in 2003, Giles was certainly the best CF option the Pirates had during all the years he played LF/RF for them.
Well none. But by the same token I don't expect to see a guy referred to as future Hall-of-Famer every which way that they don't intend to put in the Hall. You don't see anyone writing "future Hall-of-Famer Carlos Delgado," do you? A striking portion of the mainstream media act like it's a foregone conclusion. Maybe they're wrong about it, but that'd be a lot of incorrect high-profile proclamations.
It may be a simple case of guys figuring Omar is a Hall of Famer and the rest of the voters must obviously think of him the same way.
I will concede you do see more mentions of "Future Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel" than you do of other guys of his general Hall of Fame worthiness. I'm just not sure how much we can extrapolate from that. I wouldn't be surprised if MSM members are as prone to assume their views are widespread as we are to do the same.
I'd be very surprised if Vizquel doesn't make the HOF - but I also would be shocked if it happened quickly. 10-12 years on the ballot and he'll probably make it.
Fair enough. But I think you may be overestimating Vizquel's support. I would bet that Jack Morris was called a future Hall of Famer a few times near the end of his career, and he hasn't made it yet.
I have no doubt that Vizquel will get more votes than he deserves. He'll likely outpoll clearly superior players such as Edmonds, Walker, and Brown. But that still leaves a lot of ground to cover before he gets to 75%.
As for the media assuming he's a future hall of famer, we've seen that before (Mattingly, Garvey, Wills, EDIT: yes, Morris). These types usually draw their peak support early on, but the weakness of their case ultimately becomes the story.
That's not a bad comparison, although Indian Bob's best season gets a significant war discount, and Giles's peak is better even without that. Also, I'd be interested to hear the HOM take on how much minor league credit Giles should get.
Also there is there is a domestic abuse case to think about - I don't want to get into whether or not that labels Giles anything for the rest of his life - but I think he has had some off-the-field issues.
From the HOM the interesting comparables were Charlie Keller (in) and Darryl Strawberry (out).
Prior to the knee injuries , Bay was actually a solid fielder. He came up through the minors as a CF, after all. But he had knee surgery in the offseason before the '07 season, which ended up killing his range. And then after '07 was done and it was clear that he'd lost a couple steps, there wasn't much point in moving him if he was going to get traded in a couple of months anyway - and his rag arm would've posed a serious RF issue regardless (not that it stopped them from using Lawton in RF in 2005).
But it's been pretty standard team practice since they changed parks in '01, and not one that's common knowledge outside of Pittsburgh. It's why Nyjer was in LF last year, and why Milledge is there this year, and why they used guys like John Vander Wal and Matt Stairs and Craig Wilson in RF.
This may no longer be true by the time his name is on the HOF ballot.
Well Maranville did it and yes he's in the Hall of Fame but he's not in the Hall of Merit. Pretty good comp for Omar, but I'm inclined to give Maranville a defensive edge (and therefore an overall edge) though who really knows.
However, 'deserving' or not, Brock, Rice, and Puckett all had careers with the intangibles that HOF voters have tended to embrace. No news in that. But Giles? Even with the continuing maturation of the HOF voters, the fact that the primate population is generally iffy about him doesn't speak well for his chances.
If you read Rabbit's entry in the NBJBA, you'll agree he belongs in the Hall on sheer awesomeness alone...
Ozzie was not before my time enough to say I didn't see him play, but I didn't get to appreciate him in the same way I did Omar, as I was older. With that caveat, and highlights, and in a way I can't describe spending three minutes posting, Vizquel really seemed more solid to me as a spectator. Especially overall. Ozzie was the "I can't BELIEVE he got to that ball and made the play" guy, a shock, a wow. Vizquel was a "I have never seen anyone look that perfect making an impossible play, or EVERY play" guy, fielding as artwork as opposed to a show. I think Ozzie inspired and gave us the Rey Ordonez's of the world, but Omar just struck me dumb with his beauty of motion.
Again, this is all anecdotal memory and impressions with the stated caveats. He barehanded a high-hopper in the rain in the Boston playoffs Pedro game (series?) that I will never forget. I'm convinced he was looking at first before the ball hit his hand.
Vizquel is a lot closer(if not inferior) to Concepcion than he is to Ozzie. I like Vizquel, and think he should become the poster boy for the underrated hall of merit style players, but in my opinion Trammell, Whittaker, Santo and even Simmons need to go in before we waste time with anything resembling a Vizquel campaign(not to mention Raines and Blyleven) Trammel is so far ahead of Vizquel that it's embarassing talking about his campaign.
Don't really disagree with a single word of this. I was definitely just going for my impression of Omar vs. Ozzie in the field.
As a Mets fan, allow me to say that Mex was every bit his equal. :-)
Whoa. How did this end up up here?
I echo the sentiment that Giles was a fine player, but will never sniff the Hall. When there's serious doubt about Edmonds' candidacy with eight Gold Gloves and comparable offensive achievements, I can't imagine why any traditional voters would bring in a corner OF with fewer than 300 career HR.
As for Vizquel, I can't help but view him as the SS equivalent of Don Sutton. He's not great and never has been, but there's a place in the Hall for pretty good players who maintain that talent level for 15 years.
It'd be a shame were he to go in prior to Edmonds, Raines, or Walker, but the Hall is little more than a tourist trap and doesn't count for much in my book.
Oh please.
If you have something of value to contribute, please feel free.
On the other hand, if you haven't conducted any research into the origins of the Hall, educate yourself before you correct someone who's bothered to crack a book or two about the subject.
FWIW, "future Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel" gets more google hits than "future Hall of Famer Alex Rodriguez". This is depressing..."
That isn't depressing. It's meaningless. You probably don't get a lot of google hits for "future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols" yet either. If you open your handy-dandy sports writer cliche book you will find out that the adjective "future Hall of Famer" isn't to be used until the writer believes the player is in his last couple seasons.
Beyond that, it is senseless to discuss Omar Vizquel's candidacy. He is never retiring and last I checked you have to be retired for 5 years. Actually, my guess is he will retire the day after getting his 3,000th hit after coming into a game as a defensive replacement for the expansion Indianapolis Hoosiers in support of Jamie Moyer's 300th win.
My basic point, along with the fact that a certain amount of debate and weight goes into the Hall and its members, and has every year since its inception. No matter how many Kirby Pucketts and Jim Rices are elected, there is considerable gravity to the process. If you're going to wave away the yearly debate about the Hall and its contents to the trash heap of "tourist trap" as you mean it, your extensive research into the origin of the hall is weighted down considerably by your personal opinions. I understand your point, but I think the dismissive height from which you seem to be judging is simply not objective..
On the other hand, if you haven't conducted any research into the origins of the Hall, educate yourself before you correct someone who's bothered to crack a book or two about the subject.
Mr. DeMille is dead.
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