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Friday, December 04, 2009

THT: Wyers: When is a fly ball a line drive?

Let’s talk about parallax.

Simply put, parallax is a phenomenon in which the apparent position of an object can change based upon the location of the observer. ...

Baseball fans will be most familiar with the effects of this phenomenon when it comes to calling balls and strikes off the television feed; most broadcasts use an offset camera angle that distorts our view of the strike zone. But what else could it affect?

Most of what we know about batted balls comes from stringers who score games. Typically those stringers are given a spot in the press box. Now, because of the way different stadiums are constructed, the view from the press box shifts around.

For those who don’t want to read the article - for press boxes between 40 and 70 feet in height, raising the press box a foot results in an estimated .002 rise in the observed rate of line drives.

CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: December 04, 2009 at 07:06 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

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   1. BringBackTimTeufel Posted: December 04, 2009 at 10:24 PM (#3403695)
When Chip Caray sees it.
   2. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: December 04, 2009 at 10:29 PM (#3403704)
I've also mentioned that there is a chance that the result of a play (base hit/out) could have a subconscious effect on how the scorer scores the hit type. Unless he can somehow get it in before he knows whether it will be caught or not (unlikely) that's a difficult potential bias to deal with.
   3. plim Posted: December 04, 2009 at 11:09 PM (#3403800)
i'll double post (hopefully this is not faux pas):

Peter said...
I think we’re missing something really important here - When do stringers move between parks?

If stringer A only scores at Wrigley field, then his perspective/parallax never changes. So he should always be judging under the same conditions.

If the ballpark moves the press box in the middle of a season, or if a stringer scores consecutive seasons in different stadiums with different perspectives (like shea/citi, oys/nys), then you might have a year-to-year issue.

but I hardly doubt there’s a contingent of mobile stringers hopping from stadium to stadium and having different judgements.

Now announcers who do jump from stadium to stadium, yes, it could affect the quality of the broadcast (that could be mitigated by good broadcasters who remember fenway is higher than citi). But overall, this should *not* affect stringers who stay in 1 park.

now, if you want to talk about multiple stringers scoring different games within the season and stringer A’s perception of a line drive differs from stringer B’s perception, then you’re on to something.
   4. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: December 05, 2009 at 12:36 AM (#3403902)
but I hardly doubt there’s a contingent of mobile stringers hopping from stadium to stadium and having different judgements.
Baltimore/DC has five stringers who split the games between the two ballparks.
   5. plim Posted: December 05, 2009 at 12:41 AM (#3403909)
Larry--

thinking about that again, you're right. they could be cross-scoring in say NY, OAK/SF, chicago, etc, assuming the teams let them (which, obviously, is the case in bal/dc)

but that goes to another commenter on the original site talking about small sample size - the only "valid" points are multi-stadium individual markets where they share stringers (and he was originally stating that there weren't enough points even with all the stadiums)

and it also goes to my comment about announcers: hopefully these guys would be cognizant of the differences between the 2 stadiums enough to alter accordingly.

but that still doesn't warrant a coast to coast statistical analysis (albeit a pretty sound one).
   6. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: December 05, 2009 at 12:47 AM (#3403912)
assuming the teams let them
The teams? We don't work for the teams, we work for MLBAM. Obviously we are there are the pleasure of the teams, but barring exceptional circumstances, the teams don't care who it is.

From experience, it is often hard to tell the difference between a line drive and fly ball at Nationals Park. We're waaaaaaaaaaay up there, so we're essentially looking down on the field from above, as an almost two-dimensional thing. It takes a while to learn to judge them there.
   7. CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: December 05, 2009 at 02:05 AM (#3403968)
plim, I don't quite get what your point is. The theory is that scorers in different locations will have a different perspective of the same reality - the same ball will "look" different in different parks, despite being the same batted ball and having the same flight path. That creates a persistent bias - and would do so even if we were magically able to have all games scored by the exact same person.
   8. plim Posted: December 05, 2009 at 09:00 PM (#3404455)
CW--

the point is that if Larry sees a line drive in RFK, he's not going to misjudge pop fly in Wrigley because it's so much lower - because he would never score a game in wrigley. hopefully a scorer would get to know his home park(s) well enough to figure it out over time. but it's not like we have to have "park effects" for scorers in different parks for line drives vs fly balls - which is where i thought the article was eventually leading towards.
   9. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:55 AM (#3404629)
Also, all scorers at all stadiums in utilize replay, unless they are idiots.

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