Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Tiger Tales: Replacing V-Mart

Lee Panas projects Victor Martinez’ 2012 production, and that of some possible replacements.

Would Martinez have had a WAR of 5.0 again in 2012?  Probably not. He’d likely hit about as well overall (lower batting average, more homers).  However, he might lose a fraction of a win by not catching.  More importantly, we would not expect him to come anywhere close to his 2011 performance in situational hitting.  Even if he we think he would have hit a little better in clutch situations than other at bats in 2012, we would estimate that he would have had a WAR of about 3.0.

So, we have two questions: (1) How much will the Tigers lose going from Martinez in 2011 (5.0 WAR) to Player X in 2012?  (2) How much would they have lost going from Martinez’s expected performance in 2012 (3.0 WAR) to Player X in 2012?

fra paolo Posted: January 19, 2012 at 09:38 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, tigers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. ColonelTom Posted: January 19, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4040284)
A Pena/Raburn platoon would plug the gap nicely. Career splits:

Pena: .252/.370/.513 vs. RHP
Raburn: .270/.340/.507 vs. LHP

Pena's also a better 1B than Cabrera, so if you use his glove and have Cabrera DH, you gain a bit back there.

Alternatively, just getting a glove off Delmon Young and having him DH instead would be a huge benefit.
   2. Urkel's Boner Posted: January 19, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4040290)
Why go out of your way to give VMart credit for an extra 2 WAR via RE24 in paragraph two when you then go on in paragraph three to take that 2 WAR away because it says nothing to the WAR you would have predicted VMart for this year?
   3. Urkel's Boner Posted: January 19, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4040334)
edt: eh, nevermind
   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 19, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4040370)
Is he any relation to Racer X? Cuz I don't think Racer X could hit a curveball.
   5. DL from MN Posted: January 19, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4040434)
> getting a glove off Delmon Young and having him DH

Call Johnny Damon
   6. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 19, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4040898)
Using purely in-house options:

C - Avila
1B - Cabrera
2B - Santiago
3B - Inge?
SS - Peralta
LF - Raburn
CF - Jackson
RF - Boesch
DH - Young

That's not a terrible lineup, and could potentially even be good, depending on Boesch/Raburn/Young. All of those guys have shown the ability to be productive for extended periods, but rarely for an entire season. 3B is a problem, but that's completely unrelated to the V-Mart injury.

So barring further moves (though further moves seem likely), the impact of V-Mart's injury seems to be that Ramon Santiago will get more PA, and his bat is notably less potent than V-Mart's. However, this offensive downgrade would be offset by a defensive upgrade, as Santiago would be playing more 2B and Raburn will be playing less (big improvement), and Raburn would be playing more LF and Young will be playing less (big improvement).

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Harry Balsagne
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 8-27-15
(104 - 10:24pm, Aug 27)
Last: Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams)

NewsblogSchoenfield: Trying to figure out Don Mattingly and the Dodgers
(12 - 10:23pm, Aug 27)
Last: Vertov

NewsblogOTP - August 2015: Meet the … Baseball Owner Funding the 2016 Campaign ...
(4527 - 10:16pm, Aug 27)
Last: GordonShumway

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - August 2015
(141 - 10:08pm, Aug 27)
Last: madvillain

Newsblogred sox - The Hanley Effect has rippled through Red Sox roster, left destruction in wake - WEEI | John Tomase
(28 - 10:04pm, Aug 27)
Last: reech

NewsblogThe Pyramid Rating System: JAWS on a Career Scale – The Hardball Times
(32 - 10:04pm, Aug 27)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogSB Nation: Pirates outfielder may have made the most chill out in MLB history
(25 - 9:57pm, Aug 27)
Last: PASTE Will Notice Harper When He Hits .467 (Zeth)

NewsblogOT: Soccer August 2015
(479 - 9:49pm, Aug 27)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogAnd Now, Curt Schilling With Some Cool Thoughts About Muslims And Nazis
(122 - 9:17pm, Aug 27)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogPablo Sandoval has improved defensively - The Boston Globe
(15 - 9:05pm, Aug 27)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogThe Website MLB Couldn’t Buy
(16 - 8:53pm, Aug 27)
Last: puck

NewsblogMonth is cold one for Trout
(21 - 8:51pm, Aug 27)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogBlurry line between fantasy sites
(64 - 8:25pm, Aug 27)
Last: Shibal

NewsblogFivethirtyeight: The Happiest And Saddest Fans In Baseball
(21 - 5:23pm, Aug 27)
Last: theboyqueen

NewsblogHey, data data: MLB teams face challenge delivering info to players
(1 - 4:19pm, Aug 27)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

Page rendered in 0.1776 seconds
48 querie(s) executed