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Thursday, January 19, 2012

Tiger Tales: Replacing V-Mart

Lee Panas projects Victor Martinez’ 2012 production, and that of some possible replacements.

Would Martinez have had a WAR of 5.0 again in 2012?  Probably not. He’d likely hit about as well overall (lower batting average, more homers).  However, he might lose a fraction of a win by not catching.  More importantly, we would not expect him to come anywhere close to his 2011 performance in situational hitting.  Even if he we think he would have hit a little better in clutch situations than other at bats in 2012, we would estimate that he would have had a WAR of about 3.0.

So, we have two questions: (1) How much will the Tigers lose going from Martinez in 2011 (5.0 WAR) to Player X in 2012?  (2) How much would they have lost going from Martinez’s expected performance in 2012 (3.0 WAR) to Player X in 2012?

fra paolo Posted: January 19, 2012 at 10:38 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, tigers

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   1. ColonelTom Posted: January 19, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4040284)
A Pena/Raburn platoon would plug the gap nicely. Career splits:

Pena: .252/.370/.513 vs. RHP
Raburn: .270/.340/.507 vs. LHP

Pena's also a better 1B than Cabrera, so if you use his glove and have Cabrera DH, you gain a bit back there.

Alternatively, just getting a glove off Delmon Young and having him DH instead would be a huge benefit.
   2. Urkel's Boner Posted: January 19, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4040290)
Why go out of your way to give VMart credit for an extra 2 WAR via RE24 in paragraph two when you then go on in paragraph three to take that 2 WAR away because it says nothing to the WAR you would have predicted VMart for this year?
   3. Urkel's Boner Posted: January 19, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4040334)
edt: eh, nevermind
   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 19, 2012 at 02:44 PM (#4040370)
Is he any relation to Racer X? Cuz I don't think Racer X could hit a curveball.
   5. DL from MN Posted: January 19, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4040434)
> getting a glove off Delmon Young and having him DH

Call Johnny Damon
   6. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 20, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4040898)
Using purely in-house options:

C - Avila
1B - Cabrera
2B - Santiago
3B - Inge?
SS - Peralta
LF - Raburn
CF - Jackson
RF - Boesch
DH - Young

That's not a terrible lineup, and could potentially even be good, depending on Boesch/Raburn/Young. All of those guys have shown the ability to be productive for extended periods, but rarely for an entire season. 3B is a problem, but that's completely unrelated to the V-Mart injury.

So barring further moves (though further moves seem likely), the impact of V-Mart's injury seems to be that Ramon Santiago will get more PA, and his bat is notably less potent than V-Mart's. However, this offensive downgrade would be offset by a defensive upgrade, as Santiago would be playing more 2B and Raburn will be playing less (big improvement), and Raburn would be playing more LF and Young will be playing less (big improvement).

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