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Friday, March 29, 2013

Tigers, Justin Verlander Agree To Contract Extension

And Kate Upton won the Sun’s “best cleavage” poll. Life is good.

The Tigers announced that they have agreed to terms with Justin Verlander on a five-year contract extension through the 2019 season with a vesting option for the 2020 season.  Verlander will earn $180MM over the next seven seasons and the option is worth $22MM, meaning that he can earn a total of $202MM under terms of his new deal, sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com (on Twitter).

Including the vesting option, the SFX client has achieved his stated goal of becoming baseball’s first $200MM pitcher.  The guaranteed $180MM portion of the deal makes Verlander the highest paid pitcher of all-time by every measure, as it surpasses the six-year, $175MM deal obtained by Felix Hernandez earlier this winter.

The District Attorney Posted: March 29, 2013 at 01:25 PM | 51 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: justin verlander, tigers

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   1. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:13 PM (#4399209)
Paging Dr. Jobe...
   2. eddieot Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4399210)
Well deserved. It's official. Baseball is just printing money. Hope Justin's celebration includes Kate Upton rolling naked in piles of hundreds. Or, um, something equally fun.
   3. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:21 PM (#4399215)
I assume he'll only pitch 180 innings a year to protect their investment.
   4. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4399216)
As outrageous as the money is that Hernandez deal probably made this inevitable. The two pitchers similar enough that it probably became pretty easy for Verlander's agent and the Tigers to start with a pretty solid understanding of what a deal would probably look like.

I like Verlander and the Tigers so I hope this works out well for them.
   5. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:25 PM (#4399221)
Hope Justin's celebration includes Kate Upton rolling naked in piles of hundreds. Or, um, something equally fun.

That would be unpossible
   6. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:35 PM (#4399229)
The Tigers will regret this deal.
   7. Swedish Chef Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4399243)
If you're going to do megadeals, do it with outstanding players rather than the Werths of the world. Sure, the risk is great and it may not be rational, but at least you get to watch some exciting baseball while you worry about something going 'pop'
in their limbs.
   8. Spectral Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:54 PM (#4399250)
If I'm reading this correctly, they basically added 5 years, $140 million to his deal, plus the vesting option. If he's anywhere near the pitcher he's been over the last 7 years during those 7 years, this will look like a very, very good deal. That said, it seems to me like an overpay, but I'm always more inclined to hang onto the flexibility of having him for the next two years at his current rate and seeing whether he has injuries to deal with. That said, I understand the desire to lock up their franchise player, and I think it probably is the sort of thing that relevant for adding goodwill with fans.

I'm still more inclined to agree with the sentiment that the Tigers will regret this though.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:57 PM (#4399254)
Its the going rate and if I were Mr. Moneybags, I'd probably pay it too. Tigers fans should hope that Mike Ilitch lives forever.
   10. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: March 29, 2013 at 02:58 PM (#4399255)
Agreed completely with #7. If you're spending 100m or more, give it to a stud. Yes, they could get hurt and the deal could thus work out poorly, but I'd rather take my chances giving a Johan Santana 137m than a Jayson Werth 127m.
   11. The Good Face Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:06 PM (#4399259)
I'm with 7 and 10. If you're gonna write a huge check, give it to the absolute most elite talent you can find, and Verlander qualifies.
   12. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:09 PM (#4399261)
Agreed completely with #7. If you're spending 100m or more, give it to a stud.


Never give 10 year deals to 30 year old pitchers. Ever.
   13. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:14 PM (#4399267)
Never give 10 year deals to 30 year old pitchers. Ever.


Then it's a good thing that this contract is for 7! (With a vesting option for year 8.)
   14. Dan Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:15 PM (#4399268)
Looks like Posey just signed an 8 year $159M deal. Big day for contracts.
   15. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:22 PM (#4399271)
Then it's a good thing that this contract is for 7! (With a vesting option for year 8.)


Kevin Brown + inflation.
   16. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:36 PM (#4399280)
Kevin Brown + inflation.


The Tigers would be happy if they got Brown's age 30-37 out of Verlander. In that span Brown made 223 starts and threw 1561 innings with a 152 ERA+, good for 44 WAR. The problem was that his big contract covered ages 34-40.

Verlander's #3 comp at BBREf is Ramon Martinez. This is a wonderful example of two players with similar results with totally different physiologies. Verlander is built like a prototypical power pitcher, while Ramon Martinez (6-4, 165) was built like a prototypical paperclip.

EDIT: Don't get me wrong, this is a huge risk. But if Verlander leaves they aren't replacing him, and Ilitch certainly has the cash to spend.
   17. Gamingboy Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:44 PM (#4399284)
Anything that will keep Verlander and Posey as far away from the Yankees as possible (since they will apparently be back in spending mode after they've been under the tax a few years), I support.
   18. Sean Forman Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:54 PM (#4399287)
Would the price have been any more at the end of this season?
   19. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: March 29, 2013 at 03:58 PM (#4399291)
Nice job by the Tigers. Sure it's a huge risk but this is the guy to take it on.

I should just become a Tigers fan. Really. I've been teamless for several years since dumping Frank Wren, I grew up in Michigan, my Dad is a Tigers fan (although he's admittedly gone a little cold on baseball), I'll argue Whitaker and Trammell's HOF cases with anybody, why not? Sure, I hate the DH as much as the next right thinking individual, but nothing's perfect I guess. I'm thinking about it. Is there an application to fill out?
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 29, 2013 at 04:03 PM (#4399295)
So Felix, Verlander and Posey. Who's next?

Top 10 players according to WAR, not eligible for free agency, not signed to a multi-year deal:
Mike Trout
Chase Headley
Jayson Heyward
Austin Jackson
Giancarlo Stanton
Bryce Harper
Josh Reddick
Darwin Barney
Brett Lawrie
Jason Kipnis

Pitchers
David Price
Clayton Kershaw
Jordan Zimmerman
Kris Medlen
Max Scherzer
Jarrod Parker
Wade Miley
Doug Fister
Craig Kimbrel
Jeremy Hellickson

Also, Mat Latos is only on a two year deal through 2014
   21. Darren Posted: March 29, 2013 at 04:06 PM (#4399297)
Seems like a floodgate is opening and the massive amounts of money coming into baseball is finally making their way to the players a little bit.
   22. billyshears Posted: March 29, 2013 at 04:16 PM (#4399302)
I don't really understand giving out this kind of money two years before a decision point. Why bet $140 mil that Verlander is not going to get hurt or decline in his age 31 and age 32 seasons when you don't have to?
   23. greenback calls it soccer Posted: March 29, 2013 at 04:19 PM (#4399304)
I don't really understand giving out this kind of money two years before a decision point. Why bet $140 mil that Verlander is not going to get hurt or decline in his age 31 and age 32 seasons when you don't have to?

Because if you're Verlander, why would you sign an extension a couple of months before you can play the Yankees off the Red Sox?
   24. JE (Jason) Posted: March 29, 2013 at 04:35 PM (#4399314)
I don't really understand giving out this kind of money two years before a decision point. Why bet $140 mil that Verlander is not going to get hurt or decline in his age 31 and age 32 seasons when you don't have to?

Maybe Dombrowski is more worried about Ilitch's long-term health than Verlander's?
   25. Walt Davis Posted: March 29, 2013 at 05:12 PM (#4399327)
In general agreement. I'd rather spend it on an elite hitter than an elite pitcher but gamble on the elite either way ... and there are no elite hitting FAs coming anytime soon.

And might I note he's guaranteed through the magical age 36 season. :-)

A slightly different take on AG's list, 2010-12, 29 or younger, 5 or fewer years in the league, min 1500 PA:

Only 21 players qualify, 11 of them have 8+ WAR over the last 3 years. Earliest possible FA year:

Longoria -- 2023
McCutchen -- 2018
Jackson -- 2016
Heyward -- 2016
CarGo -- 2018
Wieters -- 2016
Panda -- 2015
Andrus -- 2015
Span -- 2015 (option)
Bruce -- 2017 (option)
Castro -- 2020 (option)

Below this you get some nice players like Neil Walker (7 WAR, only 27 this year), Escobar, Desmond, etc. Probably the only one with star potential is Rasmus who will be 26 this year so he'd better star potential it quick. I expect the Pirates will double-dip on McCutchen in a couple of years and the Tigers are probably just waiting to see if Jackson hits like he did last year and will at least try to sign him mid-season or next offseason. Wieters, Panda, Andrus and Span could all be available though.

Obviously this list excludes 2 or less service year guys like Trout and Harper but those guys don't hit FA until 2017-18 at the earliest. I'm a little surprised the Braves haven't tied up Heyward yet.

On the starter side (using 450 IP), there are 20 qualifiers with the top 11 going down to Bumgarner at 7 WAR (next guy is 3 WAR behind).

Kerhsaw -- 2015
Price -- 2016
Gio -- 2017 (options for 17 and 18)
Cueto -- 2015 (option)
Matt Harrison -- who knew? 2018 (option)
Fister -- 2016
Cahill -- 2016
Latos -- 2016
Scherzer -- 2015
Romero -- 2016 (option ... oops)
Bumgarner -- 2018 (option for 18 and 19)

It's up to the 2016 crew to bring back the glory days of free agency!

There are some 2014 ones (Timmeh!) but apparently 2012 was the 6th "season" for all of them. And no doubt there are a number who were 30+ in 2012.
   26. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: March 29, 2013 at 05:21 PM (#4399329)
Verlander needs exactly 100 wins to be the Tigers' all-time leader in that category.

Hooks Dauss...you're effing toast.
   27. Brian White Posted: March 29, 2013 at 05:29 PM (#4399337)
Top three headlines on ESPN.com right now:

"Verlander gets record $180M deal"
"Giants lock up Posey on 9-year, $167M deal"
"Romo to receive $108M extension"

My thoughts: WTF, Sergio Romo is worth a 9-figure contract?



note: It turns out Romo getting the extension is Tony, not Sergio.
   28. JJ1986 Posted: March 29, 2013 at 05:33 PM (#4399340)
and there are no elite hitting FAs coming anytime soon.


Dave Cameron agrees.
   29. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: March 29, 2013 at 06:38 PM (#4399365)

WOOOO!!!

He'd get way more than this if he ever made FA. Waaaay more. Great move.
   30. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: March 29, 2013 at 06:40 PM (#4399367)
Yeah, and unlike Romo the Posey and Verlander contracts are guaranteed. Should play baseball, kids! There's way more money in it.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: March 29, 2013 at 06:41 PM (#4399368)
Dave Cameron agrees.

Fair enough, I should have said "young" elite hitting FAs. Cano, if not extended, will be 31 for 2014 -- not bad but nearing the end of prime time. Also Cano is entering his 9th season of playing time, he's already had one buyout. He's a lesson in what's going on. He'd have made the lists similar to the above after 2008 and 2009 ... but he was extended after the 2007 season through 2013. Basically, he was McCutchen.
   32. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: March 29, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4399372)
Seems like a floodgate is opening and the massive amounts of money coming into baseball is finally making their way to the players a little bit.


To the players who would have tons of money anyway, of course. Not the rest of the players.
   33. Tripon Posted: March 29, 2013 at 07:02 PM (#4399382)
Clayton Kershaw, come on down.
   34. cardsfanboy Posted: March 29, 2013 at 07:22 PM (#4399390)
I don't really understand giving out this kind of money two years before a decision point. Why bet $140 mil that Verlander is not going to get hurt or decline in his age 31 and age 32 seasons when you don't have to?


Plenty of people have pointed out that there seems to be a flooding of money to the teams coming in. If that is the case, and you are an owner and know this, history says that pay goes up drastically with an influx of money to the owners. If, as an owner, you know this, you could be potentially saving serious cash on a contract like this.

   35. Tim D Posted: March 29, 2013 at 09:25 PM (#4399471)
This is a good deal for the Tigers. Ilitch can raise the price of the Hot and Ready to $6 and pay for the deal in no time. The Tigers are going to be sold out the next couple of years at least, ticket prices have been raised, and they are going to sell about a million more Verlander jerseys.

As pitchers go, Verlander seems a better risk than most. He has never had a serious arm injury, gets stronger as the game (and season) go on, and fits the prototype of power pitchers perfectly. He is a reasonably good risk to be effective at least into his late 30s, ala Clemens, Seaver, Carlton et al.

The only test required to be a Tigers fan is to attach yourself irrationally to some player of dubious value (Don Kelly, Brandon Inge, Bobby Higginson, Enos Cabell, Don Wert, etc) and make out that they are a vastly important player because of their intangibles: grit, versatility, leadership, defense, etc. You must defend this to the death even when they are hitting .160. Mine was Ray Oyler. Welcome.
   36. robinred Posted: March 29, 2013 at 09:38 PM (#4399477)
@35

Nice post, but I can't help but feel that since he is not on the list, what you describe should be called "Brookens Syndrome."
   37. Darren Posted: March 29, 2013 at 09:41 PM (#4399482)

To the players who would have tons of money anyway, of course. Not the rest of the players.


What do you mean? Like minors leaguers or do you mean young pre-arb guys or mediocre FAs?
   38. Dr. Vaux Posted: March 29, 2013 at 09:42 PM (#4399485)
Mine (well, one of them) was Mike Heath, but was he really that bad?
   39. Tim D Posted: March 29, 2013 at 09:58 PM (#4399499)
AKA "Babe" Brookens to my wife....
   40. shoewizard Posted: March 30, 2013 at 12:31 AM (#4399586)

Because if you're Verlander, why would you sign an extension a couple of months before you can play the Yankees off the Red Sox?


Not that it's a very relevant question on my part, but I have the perception that playing for the Yankees or the Red Sox would seem to be less enticing for a FA then it was 3 or 4 years ago, and those teams are certainly looking less willing to be the biggest spenders lately.

Is the sentiment in the quote slightly outdated perhaps ?
   41. ASmitty Posted: March 30, 2013 at 01:15 AM (#4399591)
AKA "Babe" Brookens to my wife....


My mother STILL carries a torch. Tommy must have been quite the dreamboat in his day.
   42. DanG Posted: March 30, 2013 at 03:49 AM (#4399607)
Most pitching WAR, ages 27-29, past 70 years

Rk             Player  WAR ERA+    IP From   To  W  L
1       Roger Clemens 27.3  180 746.1 1990 1992 57 27
2      Pedro Martinez 26.5  246 547.0 1999 2001 48 13
3        Sandy Koufax 26.1  166 869.2 1963 1965 70 18
4         Greg Maddux 24.0  219 678.2 1993 1995 55 18
5      Fergie Jenkins 23.5  130 927.1 1970 1972 66 41
6          Tom Seaver 21.9  131 788.0 1972 1974 51 33
7       Juan Marichal 21.2  154 805.0 1965 1967 61 29
'8   Justin Verlander 20.4  150 713.2 2010 2012 59 22'
9         Frank Viola 19.9  136 768.0 1987 1989 54 34
10      Johan Santana 19.6  151 687.0 2006 2008 50 26
11      Rick Reuschel 19.6  127 754.2 1976 1978 48 37
12         Ron Guidry 19.3  147 729.2 1978 1980 60 21
13      Steve Carlton 19.1  125 930.2 1972 1974 56 43
14       Brandon Webb 19.1  150 698.0 2006 2008 56 25
15      Teddy Higuera 19.1  125 722.1 1985 1987 53 29
16         Roy Oswalt 18.5  144 674.1 2005 2007 49 27
17        Mel Parnell 18.0  144 765.1 1949 1951 61 28
18          Jose Rijo 17.9  148 640.2 1992 1994 38 25
19        CC Sabathia 17.6  142 720.2 2008 2010 57 25
20         Bob Feller 17.1  131 950.2 1946 1948 65 41 

Same guys ages 32-34

Rk           Player  WAR ERA+    IP From   To  W  L
1     Roger Clemens 21.5  155 646.2 1995 1997 41 25
2       Greg Maddux 16.4  152 719.2 1998 2000 56 27
3        Tom Seaver 16.0  131 736.0 1977 1979 53 26
4    Pedro Martinez 13.4  123 566.2 2004 2006 40 25
5        Ron Guidry 11.3  107 705.0 1983 1985 53 26
6       Frank Viola 11.1  130 452.2 1992 1994 25 21
7     Steve Carlton 11.1  127 781.1 1977 1979 57 34
8    Fergie Jenkins 10.1  110 672.0 1975 1977 39 39
9        Roy Oswalt  7.6  115 409.2 2010 2012 26 26
10    Juan Marichal  5.9  103 686.2 1970 1972 36 37
11    Rick Reuschel  3.6  115 177.0 1981 1983  9 12
12    Teddy Higuera  2.8  101 206.1 1990 1991 14 12
13       Bob Feller  1.4   93 617.0 1951 1953 41 28
14    Johan Santana  0.2   79 117.0 2011 2013  6  9
15      Mel Parnell  0.2  100 269.2 1954 1956 12 16
16     Sandy Koufax  0.0
17     Brandon Webb  0.0
18        Jose Rijo  0.0 
   43. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: March 30, 2013 at 04:05 AM (#4399608)
@42: great lists. Interesting that Maddux (Maddux!!) from 32 through 34 wouldn't even crack the first list.
   44. Walt Davis Posted: March 30, 2013 at 08:13 AM (#4399623)
Why ages 32-34? The extension covers 32-36. Clemens put up 33 WAR, not shabby. 5/$140 is just massive but, assuming inflation, the break-even point is probably around 22 WAR (move it up or down 2 if you want). Heck, even Jim Kaat and Doyle Alexander were worth 22 WAR from 32-36. It's not that rare surprisingly. He just needs to be those guys or Mussina, Cone, Blyleven. Even David Wells, Chuck Finley or Al Leiter would be far from disasters. I'll take my chances on Verlander being that good.

Ahh, crap, I guess this is all new WAR. I'm not sure what new WAR does to our $/WAR calculations.
   45. bobm Posted: March 30, 2013 at 08:57 AM (#4399627)
[42, 44]

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1943 to 2012, For players in the saved report : (, From 1943 to 2012, From Age 27 to 29, (requiring WAR_pitch?17), sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers: Results), From Age 32 to 36, sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers
                                                    
Rk           Player  WAR From   To  W  L     IP ERA+
1     Roger Clemens 32.5 1995 1999 75 41 1069.0  145
2     Steve Carlton 26.8 1977 1981 94 47 1275.1  137
3       Greg Maddux 25.9 1998 2002 89 44 1152.0  152
4        Tom Seaver 21.7 1977 1981 77 36 1070.1  126
5    Fergie Jenkins 18.3 1975 1979 73 61 1180.0  111
6        Ron Guidry 16.3 1983 1987 67 46 1015.0  108
7    Pedro Martinez 13.6 2004 2008 48 32  703.2  113
8       Frank Viola 10.4 1992 1996 26 25  497.1  119
9     Rick Reuschel  9.6 1981 1985 28 25  463.1  115
10       Roy Oswalt  7.6 2010 2012 26 26  409.2  115
11    Juan Marichal  7.1 1970 1974 52 53  951.1  101
12       Bob Feller  3.4 1951 1955 58 35  840.0   99
13    Teddy Higuera  1.4 1990 1994 16 20  295.0   86
14        Jose Rijo  0.4 2001 2001  0  0   17.0  221
15    Johan Santana  0.2 2012 2012  6  9  117.0   79
16      Mel Parnell  0.2 1954 1956 12 16  269.2  100


   46. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 30, 2013 at 09:05 AM (#4399628)
Not that it's a very relevant question on my part, but I have the perception that playing for the Yankees or the Red Sox would seem to be less enticing for a FA then it was 3 or 4 years ago, and those teams are certainly looking less willing to be the biggest spenders lately.

Is the sentiment in the quote slightly outdated perhaps ?


I certainly hope so. That horse has been dead for years, yet some people keep beating it.
   47. bobm Posted: March 30, 2013 at 09:21 AM (#4399635)
For players in the saved report : (From 1943 to 2012, From Age 32 to 36, (requiring WAR_pitch >=15), sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers: Results),

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1943 to 2012, From Age 27 to 29, sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers

                                                            
Rk              Player  WAR From   To   Age  W  L    IP ERA+
1        Roger Clemens 27.3 1990 1992 27-29 57 27 746.1  180
2          Greg Maddux 24.0 1993 1995 27-29 55 18 678.2  219
3       Fergie Jenkins 23.5 1970 1972 27-29 66 41 927.1  130
4           Tom Seaver 21.9 1972 1974 27-29 51 33 788.0  131
5           Ron Guidry 19.3 1978 1980 27-29 60 21 729.2  147
6        Steve Carlton 19.1 1972 1974 27-29 56 43 930.2  125
7           Jim Palmer 16.2 1973 1975 27-29 52 32 798.0  145
8        Gaylord Perry 16.1 1966 1968 27-29 52 40 839.1  125
9        Larry Jackson 15.7 1958 1960 27-29 45 39 736.0  119
10          Bob Gibson 14.7 1963 1965 27-29 57 33 841.0  119
11          Don Sutton 14.4 1972 1974 27-29 56 28 805.0  132
12         Jim Bunning 14.2 1959 1961 27-29 45 38 769.2  123
13        Mike Mussina 14.1 1996 1998 27-29 47 29 674.1  120
14        Warren Spahn 14.1 1948 1950 27-29 57 43 852.1  117
15        Chuck Finley 14.0 1990 1992 27-29 43 30 667.2  118
16          David Cone 13.4 1990 1992 27-29 45 34 694.0  119
17        Roy Halladay 13.2 2004 2006 27-29 36 17 494.2  142
18          Luis Tiant 12.8 1968 1970 27-29 37 32 600.2  124
19       Randy Johnson 12.1 1991 1993 27-29 44 32 667.0  115
20          Nolan Ryan 12.1 1974 1976 27-29 53 46 815.0  107
21            Jim Kaat 11.9 1966 1968 27-29 55 38 776.0  119
22         Whitey Ford 11.4 1956 1958 27-29 44 18 574.1  159
23         Kevin Brown 10.5 1992 1994 27-29 43 32 668.2  111
24        Preacher Roe 10.4 1944 1945 28-29 27 24 420.1  130
25         Tom Glavine 10.2 1993 1995 27-29 51 22 603.1  123
Rk              Player  WAR From   To   Age  W  L    IP ERA+
26      Mariano Rivera 10.0 1997 1999 27-29 13  7 202.0  243
27       Bert Blyleven  9.9 1978 1980 27-29 34 28 697.2  109
28       Andy Pettitte  9.5 1999 2001 27-29 48 30 597.0  108
29           Al Leiter  8.4 1993 1995 27-29 26 24 399.2  112
30      Curt Schilling  8.3 1994 1996 27-29 18 23 381.2  119
31         Phil Niekro  8.2 1966 1968 27-29 29 24 514.0  131
32           Ted Lilly  6.7 2003 2005 27-29 34 31 502.0  101
33        Kenny Rogers  6.3 1992 1994 27-29 30 24 454.1  107
34      Harry Brecheen  5.9 1943 1944 28-29 25 11 324.2  134
35       Jerry Koosman  5.8 1970 1972 27-29 29 30 540.2  107
36       Tom Candiotti  5.7 1986 1987 28-29 23 30 454.0  105
37         David Wells  5.6 1990 1992 27-29 33 25 507.1  106
38           Jimmy Key  5.3 1988 1990 27-29 38 26 502.0  101
39           Jim Perry  4.1 1963 1965 27-29 27 19 411.2  110
40       Virgil Trucks  3.6 1945 1946 28-29 14  9 242.0  115
41   Ken Raffensberger  3.4 1945 1947 27-29 16 29 368.0   93
42          Sal Maglie  3.0 1945 1945 28-28  5  4  84.1  166
43          Early Wynn  2.9 1947 1949 27-29 36 41 609.2   89
44     Doyle Alexander  2.8 1978 1980 27-29 28 28 536.0   93
45       Murry Dickson  2.8 1946 1946 29-29 15  6 184.1  120
46     Dennis Martinez  2.0 1981 1983 27-29 37 33 584.0   91
47           Rick Reed  1.6 1992 1994 27-29  5  8 124.2  102
48         Jamie Moyer -0.5 1990 1991 27-28  2 11 133.2   79


   48. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 30, 2013 at 09:36 AM (#4399636)
Deleted.
   49. Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: March 30, 2013 at 10:38 AM (#4399661)
the massive amounts of money coming into baseball is finally making their way to the players a little bit.

ROFL. Good one.
   50. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 30, 2013 at 11:31 AM (#4399676)

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1943 to 2012, For players in the saved report : (, From 1943 to 2012, From Age 27 to 29, (requiring WAR_pitch?17), sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers: Results), From Age 32 to 36, sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers


Rk Player WAR From To W L IP ERA+
1 Roger Clemens 32.5 1995 1999 75 41 1069.0 145
2 Steve Carlton 26.8 1977 1981 94 47 1275.1 137
3 Greg Maddux 25.9 1998 2002 89 44 1152.0 152
4 Tom Seaver 21.7 1977 1981 77 36 1070.1 126
5 Fergie Jenkins 18.3 1975 1979 73 61 1180.0 111
6 Ron Guidry 16.3 1983 1987 67 46 1015.0 108
7 Pedro Martinez 13.6 2004 2008 48 32 703.2 113
8 Frank Viola 10.4 1992 1996 26 25 497.1 119
9 Rick Reuschel 9.6 1981 1985 28 25 463.1 115
10 Roy Oswalt 7.6 2010 2012 26 26 409.2 115
11 Juan Marichal 7.1 1970 1974 52 53 951.1 101
12 Bob Feller 3.4 1951 1955 58 35 840.0 99
13 Teddy Higuera 1.4 1990 1994 16 20 295.0 86
14 Jose Rijo 0.4 2001 2001 0 0 17.0 221
15 Johan Santana 0.2 2012 2012 6 9 117.0 79
16 Mel Parnell 0.2 1954 1956 12 16 269.2 100


Seems like a pretty reasonable distribution.

25% chance this is a good deal (assuming salary inflation), 25% it's disappointing but acceptable, and 50% chance it's a complete horror show.

I do find it a little amusing that this is announced one day after the effective end of Johan Santana's career after his age-33 season (and he hasn't been good since 31).

If I were the Tigers, I would have offered to tear up the current contract and start the 5/140 today. I skip the age 35-36 risk, Verlander guarantees an extra $100M now, and he has a much better chance of getting a rich 3-4 deal at age 34, than at age 36.
   51. Squash Posted: March 30, 2013 at 12:06 PM (#4399691)
He'd get way more than this if he ever made FA. Waaaay more. Great move.

Do we really think this? Even assuming no injuries, by the time he got to FA he would have been a 32 year old pitcher. I doubt anyone would have given him a ton more than $202m at that point. This looks like about market value more or less with all the normal caveats.

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