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Monday, June 04, 2018

Tigers select Auburn RHP Mize at No. 1

As expected, Detroit used its top pick in Monday’s MLB Draft on Mize, adding another talented pitcher to its arsenal of young arms general manager Al Avila has been stockpiling.

Mize tossed a no-hitter against Northeastern in March, propelling him toward a season worthy of his billing. The right-hander has gone 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA in 16 starts, striking out 151 batters over 109 2/3 innings with 77 hits allowed. Just as impressive, he surrendered just 12 walks.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 04, 2018 at 07:42 PM | 57 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: casey mize, draft, tigers

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   1. Meatwad Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:04 PM (#5685928)
I will use this as a draft chatter. How far are they getting tonight? It says just the first and second round but does that include the comp picks at the end of the second?
   2. Walt Davis Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:06 PM (#5685931)
I assume Mize is no relation. If he is, I demand a better excerpt!
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:12 PM (#5685934)
Results & slot amounts, so far from ESPN:
FIRST ROUND
NO. TEAM/PICK VALUE PLAYER POS SCHOOL
1. Detroit Tigers/$8,096,300 Casey Mize RHP Auburn
2. San Francisco Giants/$7,494,600 Joey Bart C Georgia Tech
3. Philadelphia Phillies/$6.947,500 Alec Bohm 3B Wichita State
4. Chicago White Sox/$6,411,400 Nick Madrigal 2B Oregon State
5. Cincinnati Reds/$5,946,400 Jonathan India 3B Florida
6. New York Mets/$5,525,200 Jarred Kelenic OF Waukesha (WI) West HS
7. San Diego Padres/$5,226,500 Ryan Weathers LHP Loretto (TN) HS
8. Atlanta Braves/$4,980,700 Carter Stewart RHP Eau Gallie (FL) HS
9. Oakland Athletics/$4,761,500 Kyler Murray CF Oklahoma
10. Pittsburgh Pirates/$4,560,200 Travis Swaggerty OF South Alabama
11. Baltimore Orioles/$4,375,100 Grayson Rodriguez RHP Central Heights (TX) HS
12. Toronto Blue Jays/$4,200,900 Jordan Groshans SS Magnolia (TX) HS
13. Miami Marlins/$4,038,200 Connor Scott OF Plant (FL) HS
14. Seattle Mariners/$3,883,800 Logan Gilbert RHP Stetson
15. Texas Rangers/$3,738,500 Cole Winn RHP Orange Lutheran (CA) HS
16. Tampa Bay Rays/$3,603,500 Matthew Liberatore LHP Mountain Ridge (AZ) HS
17. Los Angeles Angels/$3,472,900 Jordyn Adams OF Green Hope (NC) HS
18. Kansas City Royals/$3,349,300 Brady Singer RHP Florida
19. St. Louis Cardinals/$3,321,700
20. Minnesota Twins/$3,120,000
21. Milwaukee Brewers/$3,013,600
22. Colorado Rockies/$2,912,300
23. New York Yankees/$2,815,900
24. Chicago Cubs/$2,724,000
25. Arizona Diamondbacks/$2,636,400
26. Boston Red Sox/$2,552,800
27. Washington Nationals/$2,399,400
28. Houston Astros/$2,399,400
29. Cleveland Indians/$2,332,700
30. Los Angeles Dodgers/$2,275,800
31. Tampa Bay Rays*/$2,224,400
32. Tampa Bay Rays**/$2,171,700
33. Kansas City Royals***/$2,118,700
34. Kansas City Royals****/$2,066,700
35. Cleveland Indians*****/$2,016,400
Compensation details:
*For Alex Cobb signing with BAL
**For not signing Drew Rasmussen.
***For Lorenzo Cain signing with MIL
****For Eric Hosmer signing with SD
*****For Carlos Santana signing with PHI
   4. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:15 PM (#5685935)
I'm okay with the Phils pick at 3. Bohm is supposed to be a pretty polished hitter with good power potential. Apparently he's a "third baseman"; I assume that this polished college player will be ready before Carlos Santana's contract is up. Oh well, sunk cost and all.
   5. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:29 PM (#5685945)
The Angels get another toolsy high school athlete. Billy Eppler definitely has a type.
   6. Ziggy's screen name Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:30 PM (#5685946)
I heard a lot of buzz about Royce, Greene, and friends last year. Not so much this year. Is this a weaker draft class, or have I just not been venturing out of my mom's basement quite as much this year?
   7. Ziggy's screen name Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:31 PM (#5685947)
The Angels get another toolsy high school athlete. Billy Eppler definitely has a type.


I mean, it's worked for them before.
   8. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:33 PM (#5685948)
Dan Mullen, ESPN.com

So how's this for an intriguing player? Though his professional future is likely as a catcher, Yankees' first-rounder Anthony Seigler, excelled as both a switch-hitter and a switch-pitcher in high school.

4-way players are the new market efficiency.
   9. Stormy JE Posted: June 04, 2018 at 10:00 PM (#5685967)
*For Alex Cobb signing with BAL
How'd that turn out for BAL?
   10. Walt Davis Posted: June 04, 2018 at 10:11 PM (#5685969)
How'd that turn out for BAL?

Terribly so far but it's not like this was the O's pick. The O's lost, what, a 3rd round pick?
   11. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 04, 2018 at 11:08 PM (#5686001)
Best draft? Seth Beer of Clemson?
   12. Stormy JE Posted: June 04, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5686007)
Terribly so far but it's not like this was the O's pick. The O's lost, what, a 3rd round pick?
I'm still amazed that the Orioles gave Cobb $52M/4 a week and a half after the Twins got Lance Lynn for $12M/1.
   13. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 04, 2018 at 11:52 PM (#5686013)
Someone dug up a tweet of Rockies first-round pick Ryan Rolison from election night 2012: "Well we have one hope left... if someone shoots him during his speech."

Gree-e-e-e-at.

   14. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: June 05, 2018 at 12:36 AM (#5686019)
A kid from WI at #6! Holy ####. That's a first, meaning earliest.
   15. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 05, 2018 at 12:42 AM (#5686020)
I'm okay with the Phils pick at 3. Bohm is supposed to be a pretty polished hitter with good power potential. Apparently he's a "third baseman"; I assume that this polished college player will be ready before Carlos Santana's contract is up. Oh well, sunk cost and all.

i'm happy.

there were 4 guys i wanted (mize, liberator, bohm, singer) and a 5th (bart) that i would have been okay with.


that said, there's something rotten with the phillies development system. only two guys in the entire system are hitting .300, only one has an OBP over .400, only 4 are hitting better than .270/.350/.450. their last 3 first round picks, all OFs taken in the top 10, are OPSing .513 (AA), .587 (hi-A) and .714 (hi-A). noone's hitting for average, noone's hitting for power, noone's controlling the strike zone.

too many guys are failing to develop. too many are stalling at the upper levels.

things are a lot better on the pitching side, but not nearly enough to balance out whatever ####### plague is tearing through the hitters.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: June 05, 2018 at 12:58 AM (#5686027)
So who wants to tell me what I need to know about Cub picks Nico Hoerner (#24), Brennen Davis (#62) and Cole Roederer (#77)? Other than the obvious fact that each is a future MVP.**

** for the Yanks after we trade them for 2 months of Aroldis Chapman in 2021.
   17. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 05, 2018 at 02:29 AM (#5686036)
The Angels' #1 draft pick has some serious athleticism.
   18. Paul d mobile Posted: June 05, 2018 at 09:08 AM (#5686076)
I love that the Jays took yet another son of a major leaguer (Conine). It's hilarious, and seems to be working okay so far.
   19. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 05, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5686079)
Someone dug up a tweet of Rockies first-round pick Ryan Rolison from election night 2012: "Well we have one hope left... if someone shoots him during his speech."
He's 20 now, so he would have been 14 then.

Way to raise your kids, Mississippi. Great job.
   20. winnipegwhip Posted: June 05, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5686087)
Best draft? Seth Beer of Clemson?


Especially since the draft is on the 44th Anniversary of 10 Cent Beer Night!!!
   21. Stormy JE Posted: June 05, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5686094)
So when picking Kelenic at no. 6, were the Mets finding another Nimmo?
   22. BDC Posted: June 05, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5686095)
The bonus figures look so vast to me. I assume they're rational in some sense, but … on form, 3 or 4 of those top 18 picks will never play in the majors, and another 5 or 6 will have minimal value as major-leaguers. Now, I realize that there's so much money in the sport that $3.7M for some pitcher who will flame out at the AA level is negligible, but it still seems like paying to sustain a system of prestige rather than paying rationally for return on investment.

Though perhaps that's the way to look at it. The vast "baseball community" spends tons of its own (parents') money getting kids in line for scholarships and draft bonuses. Without the big-prize incentives at the top of the draft, would there be that kind of youth-baseball infrastructure in the US?
   23. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 05, 2018 at 10:26 AM (#5686109)
Without the big-prize incentives at the top of the draft, would there be that kind of youth-baseball infrastructure in the US?

As long as the opportunity exists for social-climbing parents to sink thousands of dollars into the youth sports industrial complex for the chance to bask in the glory of their kid maybe getting an athletic half-scholarship, I think the TravelBall industry will be just fine.
   24. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 05, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5686113)
Way to raise your kids, Mississippi. Great job.


Rolison went to Ole Miss, but he's from Jackson, Tennessee. He's also yet to have an ERA below 3.00 in his college career, so I'm not all that enthused.
   25. stig-tossled, hornswoggled gef the typing mongoose Posted: June 05, 2018 at 10:42 AM (#5686118)
he's from Jackson, Tennessee


Where I left my wallet in a convenience store restroom during a drive from Little Rock to Nashville to see Yo La Tengo back in '99 or so. Got the wallet back but not the couple of hundred bucks therein. *sigh*
   26. Adam Starblind Posted: June 05, 2018 at 10:47 AM (#5686120)
Best draft? Seth Beer of Clemson?


A connoiseur would prefer a can poured into a glass.
   27. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5686124)
A connoiseur would prefer a can poured into a glass.


"Put it on a plate, son. You'll enjoy it more."
   28. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 05, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5686126)
Where I left my wallet in a convenience store restroom during a drive from Little Rock to Nashville to see Yo La Tengo back in '99 or so. Got the wallet back but not the couple of hundred bucks therein. *sigh*


Ryan Rolison was only two, so I don't think we can blame him for that.
   29. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 05, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5686146)
Ryan Rolison was only two, so I don't think we can blame him for that.

He was probably there getting some booze, smokes, and lottery tickets. Better check the security camera tapes.
   30. Adam Starblind Posted: June 05, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5686156)

"Put it on a plate, son. You'll enjoy it more."


I'd lick Heady Topper out of a dog bowl if I had to.
   31. Perry Posted: June 05, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5686157)
15. Texas Rangers/$3,738,500 Cole Winn RHP Orange Lutheran (CA) HS


Read about him in the Denver paper this morning -- he's actually from my little city in Colorado, but moved to CA for his senior year in search of more games and better competition. Looks like it paid off for him.
   32. Swedish Chef Posted: June 05, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5686234)
The bonus figures look so vast to me. I assume they're rational in some sense, but … on form, 3 or 4 of those top 18 picks will never play in the majors, and another 5 or 6 will have minimal value as major-leaguers. Now, I realize that there's so much money in the sport that $3.7M for some pitcher who will flame out at the AA level is negligible, but it still seems like paying to sustain a system of prestige rather than paying rationally for return on investment.

They're not rationally priced, they're a bargain. Look at the 2012 draft, the players from the first round and the supplementary round that have positive value has produced 125.6 WAR so far. That production would cost a billion dollars on the FA market. That some of them flame out adds risk, but doesn't alter the fact that it's a marvelous bargain in aggregate.
   33. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 05, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5686235)
The youngest of the K. Clemenses, Kody, goes to the Tigers.
   34. flournoy Posted: June 05, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5686279)
Look at the 2012 draft, the players from the first round and the supplementary round that have positive value has produced 125.6 WAR so far.


So an average of 2 WAR per player? That's nice and everything, but forgive me for not getting too excited.
   35. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: June 05, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5686285)
I love that the Jays took yet another son of a major leaguer (Conine).


I love that his team is heading to the Super Regionals! Duke had not won a tournament game since 1961.
   36. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: June 05, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5686287)
Best draft? Seth Beer of Clemson?


I hope the Brewers take him.
   37. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 05, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5686300)
Sadly the Astros took him.
   38. Rally Posted: June 05, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5686313)
So an average of 2 WAR per player? That's nice and everything, but forgive me for not getting too excited.


The ones that are actually productive probably have 3 more seasons to go before hitting free agency. First round + comp picks from 2009 have 201.6 WAR for 49 players. And 30% of that comes from Millville NJ.
   39. Rally Posted: June 05, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5686317)
The youngest of the K. Clemenses, Kody, goes to the Tigers.


Are you sure? I thought Roger's kids were like Plumlees in the NBA draft. There's always another one on the way.
   40. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 05, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5686328)
For what it's worth, Jordyn Adams (see post 17) plays about a mile away from my house.

Is this the least draft talk we've ever had on this site?
   41. flournoy Posted: June 05, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5686340)
The ones that are actually productive probably have 3 more seasons to go before hitting free agency.


Sure, that's true. Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised if the expected value of a draft pick is negative in a strictly dollars-to-performance sense.
   42. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 05, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5686344)
Jordyn Adams (see post 17) plays about a mile away from my house.

I knew of Kyler Murray first as an undefeated 3-time Texas 6-A state football champion quarterback from the town that borders mine to the southeast. Never knew he played baseball too.
   43. dlf Posted: June 05, 2018 at 03:12 PM (#5686350)
For what it's worth, Jordyn Adams (see post 17) plays about a mile away from my house.


I just learned that Ethan Hankins, the Indians #35 overall pick for having lost Carlos Santana, plays for the high school that is the rival of my daughter's school. I've seen his school play, but have no recollection of anyone on the team being an uber-prospect.
   44. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 05, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5686351)
41: Oh, sir, the expected value of a draft pick is huge... which is why the few (lesser picks) that can be traded have demonstrated value in trades.
43: Hankins was a fringe 1:1 candidate at one point...
   45. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 05, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5686356)
Is this the least draft talk we've ever had on this site?

It seems like most of the content is user-generated these days, and the delays in the submission approval process have been noted by several regulars here, which seems to have lead to fewer submissions. Less content leads to less participation. It's been going on for a while, and it doesn't look like site management is going to change anything. Game Chatters from 2014 are still prominently positioned on the home page.
   46. flournoy Posted: June 05, 2018 at 04:24 PM (#5686401)
I think "expected value" was an incorrect phrasing on my part. What I meant was average return on investment. I don't have data to back it up, and I'm perfectly happy to be proven wrong.
   47. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 05, 2018 at 04:31 PM (#5686412)

Sure, that's true. Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised if the expected value of a draft pick is negative in a strictly dollars-to-performance sense.


I would be pretty surprised. The total cost of the first round bonuses if I am reading correctly is $126.8m. That would buy you, what, 15-20 WAR on the free agent market (less than one WAR per player drafted)? But here you are talking about getting team control of the top 35 amateur players in the country. The first round of the 2015 draft has already produced 16 WAR, while 2013 and 2014 are already over 50.

It's basically an option where if the guy sucks you can release him and pay him next to nothing more, and if he's good you can pay him way less than market value while he's under team control. It's not as simple as Signing Bonus / WAR because you still have to pay the players during those years of team control, but like I said you do that based on an arb system that's designed to pay them less than fair market value.
   48. jacjacatk Posted: June 05, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5686423)
Sure, that's true. Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised if the expected value of a draft pick is negative in a strictly dollars-to-performance sense.


I think "expected value" was an incorrect phrasing on my part. What I meant was average return on investment. I don't have data to back it up, and I'm perfectly happy to be proven wrong.


I may be thinking about this wrong, but the average value/ROI of a draft pick essentially has to be positive, doesn't it? Otherwise, teams would decline to participate (well, at some point in the draft, anyway).

The median value of all the draft picks in a given year is clearly negative, teams are routinely giving money to guys who have almost no chance of producing revenue for them directly, but the value provided by the late-round picks that do make it probably swamps the money burned on those guys who don't, nevermind the enormous value provided by that portion of the super-prospects that pan out. And that's before accounting for the fact that you probably still need the best of the guys who'll never make it past A/AA/AAA to fill out those rosters for the sake of the reps the guys who will make it need.
   49. BDC Posted: June 05, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5686446)
I may be thinking about this wrong, but the average value/ROI of a draft pick essentially has to be positive, doesn't it? Otherwise, teams would decline to participate (well, at some point in the draft, anyway)

Only if you assume that all customary business practices have to be rational :)

But the idea that low-bonus late-round picks compensate for first-round wastes of money makes sense. It just means that the structure of the bonus system is odd. If it were more evenly spread across the whole draft it would look more reasonable. As it is, some of those top 18 will be hilariously overpaid, and some (while under team control) hilariously underpaid, very few paid their true value.
   50. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 05, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5686456)

It would be hard to believe that the draft bonus system benefitted the draftees, when you consider that it was collectively bargained by the teams against MLB players who have already been drafted. Amateur players had no seat at that table, whereas the guys doing the negotiating have a vested interest in screwing them over (less money for the draftees = more money for free agents).
   51. Zach Posted: June 05, 2018 at 05:50 PM (#5686474)
As it is, some of those top 18 will be hilariously overpaid, and some (while under team control) hilariously underpaid, very few paid their true value.

It's a question of whether you're forward-looking or backward-looking.

If you're backward-looking, almost any prospect who makes the majors is hilariously underpaid, and almost any prospect who doesn't is wasted bonus money (I won't say underpaid, because the salaries are very low until you reach the majors or get minor league free agency).

But since we don't know who those guys are yet, we have to be forward-looking. And first round picks are, for the most part, much more impressive at this stage of their career.
   52. Walt Davis Posted: June 05, 2018 at 06:43 PM (#5686515)
I went through this exercise the other day for Nimmo who was a #13 pick. Roughly ...

About 1 out of 8 #13 picks becomes a very solid MLer -- 20+ WAR. A couple of big stars in Manny Ramirez and Chris Sale but a reasonable number of good players like Aaron Hill and Garry Templeton. Now some of that value (a good chunk for Manny and Sale) came after FA. A typical career might have a rough start, but then figure it out and give 4 good years to the drafting team. Plus these are the prime years for most. So let's say this group of players produced something like 14 WAR prior to FA.**j

About 1 out of 8 were Rich Becker, about 8 WAR. Sometimes this was 5-6 years as a good bench player, sometimes just a couple of pretty big seasons surrounded by very little (Becker). Probably the team controlling the pre-FA period gets nearly all of this value.

About 3 maybe 4 out of 8 made the majors but did pretty much nothing, call this a 1 WAR group.

So out of 8 #13 picks, we'd expect something like 25 WAR. Based on the pricing above, 8 #13 picks would cost a max of $32 M. There are arb costs (a good bit for the first group, medium for the second, pretty much nothing for the third). Call the first guy $32 M (incl league min years), the middle guy $14 and the last 3 guys total $6. So that's another $52 M and it's 25 WAR for $84 M. That's certainly reasonable.

We're still talking an average of just about 3 WAR per player and a 75% chance of getting essentially no value. Even the 8-WAR players are not major additions -- like I said, solid bench players or maybe a solid-good starter for 3 years. So it's primarily about getting that 1 out of 8 good players. And this points out the risk and challenge of drafting -- you might miss that one good player you find every 8 drafts just out of bad luck. Not that most GMs even get 8 drafts.

Such an "analysis" is better done on a group of picks -- say #11-15 or even #11-20 -- probably using larger and larger chunks as you move down the draft order. But the #13 happened to work out to some reasonable round numbers.

** Looks like an underestimate. Hill put up 19 WAR, Templeton 22 in that time frame. So it might be closer to 30 WAR for $84 M with the average player being closer to a 4 WAR career.
   53. Walt Davis Posted: June 05, 2018 at 07:20 PM (#5686536)
Which gets us back to Phil Hughes, the Padres and $7 M for a #70 pick (or whatever it was). The marginal value of an extra pick in that group is trivial, not worth $7 M. Now there ends up being something like 80 WAR produced by #70 picks but basically that is entirely three players -- Andrelton (whose WAR might be over-stated at 32), Aaron Cook (at 16) and Britt Burns (at 18). No pick from 2011 or later has yet produced any value; the 12 picks between Cook and Simmons produced slightly negative WAR.

So all you're hoping to achieve down in #70 is to win the lottery. You pay whatever (is it $1 M down at #70?) to enter and either you win massively or you lose a little.

But why buy your way into a lottery for 8 times the price of a regular ticket? Given the vast majority of picks can't be traded, the typical price of the opportunity to buy a ticket is $0. And there's very little advantage to picking #70 instead of #90 and very little extra value in getting two picks from 60-80 than one.

If we go by average, then for 10 picks you'd spend $10 M on the bonuses plus subsequent salary (some arb) and you'd expect about 20 WAR. Still a great bargain. Buying that extra pick for $7 M plus the $1 M bonus, the Padres shift themselves to $18 M for 22 WAR. They paid $8 M for 2 WAR which is not a great return.

Or they shifted themselves from a 1/15 chance to win the lottery (at a entry cost of $15 M over 15 years) to 1.066/16 chance at an entry cost of $23 M.

The whole financial advantage of the draft is that, over time, you hit it big often enough that the return is phenomenal. But that sort of aggregate return does not reward marginal investment at an inflated price. Would you buy a $1 lotto ticket off your friend for $10?

Or let's limit supply. There's a standard deck of 52 cards. 50 of them are going to be dealt out, representing picks 51-100. Thanks to the system, you are going to be dealt 2 of those cards. Each card costs the player $1. To everybody's advantage, the game is set up such that whoever gets the ace of spades wins $200 but nobody else gets anything. (The "house" loses badly in this game.) Note only 50 of 52 cards are dealt, it's possible nobody gets the ace of spades this deal.

So the Padres get two of those cards and put up $2 for the 2 in 50 chance of winning $200. That's an average outcome of $8 so a good investment. Now the Twins offer them a 3rd card at the total cost of $8. ($7 to the Twins, $1 to the "house"). Now the Padres are up to $10 for a 3 in 50 chance of winning $200 -- an expected outcome of $12. They still come out ahead on average but they just spent $8 to increase their expected outcome by $4.

Those are all made up obviously and maybe things still work in the Padres' favor. But there's very little reason to pay good money for an extra lottery ticket, you should be able to push the trading team lower. The Twin clearly didn't mind giving up that pick for $7 M in salary relief, knowing full well that $7 M isn't going to buy them much in WAR terms.
   54. Zach Posted: June 05, 2018 at 08:03 PM (#5686556)
I enjoy reading about the draft, although I have absolutely no ability to tell who's going to be successful down the line.

I do have one pet peeve, though. During draft week, you hear a lot of "Actually, variance is good! Most prospects don't make it, so you want lots of upside and projection! Moar lottery tickets!"

Then the whole rest of the year, it's nothing but "How come we never develop anybody? Strongarm McArmstrong was supposed to be throwing 98 by now and striking out three guys an inning!"
   55. Zach Posted: June 05, 2018 at 08:08 PM (#5686559)
I think it's just that fans of bad teams like to daydream about striking it rich, or at least replacing the bums they're throwing out there today. But when's the last time a team did anything on the basis of hitting on a couple of lottery tickets? The Royals, Cubs, and Astros were made by developing lots and lots of quality young guys and getting them to the majors at about the same time.

Mike Trout is as good a player as you could ever hope to draft, and his teams have gone nowhere.
   56. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 06, 2018 at 08:42 AM (#5686801)
Here's an old article on the value of draft picks. The $ value has increased since then (as salaries have outpaced signing bonuses) -- the mean (not median) early round selection is worth quite a bit more than they are paid.

During draft week, you hear a lot of "Actually, variance is good! Most prospects don't make it, so you want lots of upside and projection! Moar lottery tickets!"

I do hear that but I also hear a lot of things like praise for what Tampa is doing this year - trying to hit a lot of singles and doubles, value plays.

No Heimlich yet. Good.

But when's the last time a team did anything on the basis of hitting on a couple of lottery tickets?

Well, it's baseball - that's how this game works - no player is magic.
   57. Zach Posted: June 06, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5687041)
Oh, I agree it's mostly harmless daydreaming. It's just irritating to me that so many people think the way to get rich is to buy lottery tickets.

Even if you do buy lottery tickets, I don't know if there's a better strategy than to simply accumulate major league talent and hope that some guys keep getting better.

The variation everyone talks about comes from the fact that very few prospects make the majors. If you take a list that's mostly zeroes, any nonzero entries will increase the variance. If you're trying to maximize variance, the best thing you could do is draft relievers and low-ceiling utility players -- that will give you all the variance you want, and then some.

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