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EDIT - AFAICT, the smallest market, according to this proxy, is KC. This is not surprising.
Wonder who'll get Wieters next year?
The San Francisco metropolitan area is around 7 million people, bigger than all but NY, LA, Chicago, and I think DC. For some dumbass reason the CMSA was changed, with San Jose and some other place I don't remember taken out.
IIRC, though, Detroit's CMSA number doesn't count anything in Canada. That still wouldn't bring it up to NY/LA/CHI/SF/DC levels (not that those are all equal), but it is still quite a big market.
I'm not sure how much of an effect this has but the Tigers have not been afraid to spend money since the NHL has introduced a salary cap.
I have also been intrigued by this. Seriously, it is as if Ilitch just took his Wings money and put it right into the Tigers.
I think so, and Detroit doesn't have as much problem with running into other markets as say, Philly does. As Flynn said, the Tigers have all of Michigan until you get to the far southwest corner, where you get Cubs fans, and that is more than negated by the Tigers getting Toledo.
This seems like a Maury Brown issue.
Royals (Small metro area, state is widely biased towards Cards, adjoining areas mostly rural)
Reds (Generally same as above - I assume the Tribe is more popular in a huge state, though Cleveland is also small)
Pirates (Eastren edge of seaboard, lack of fan interest)
Rockies (Could be debatable, since they have a very large area to themselves)
Twins (Little support outside metro area)
DRays (No built-in fan base, general FL sports apathy outside of college football)
Marlins (Same)
And that may be it. I guess you could include the Nats, since they have not been in DC for very long. Detroit would fall into the bottom of the big-market giants, or the very top of the mid-markets, like San Diego and Seattle. I would postulate that Houston is the outlier in terms of population not equating to revenue.
28 Kansas City MO–KS 1,967,405
...
38 Milwaukee–Waukesha–West Allis WI 1,509,981
39 Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin TN 1,455,097
The Brewers' AAA team is located in almost the same size market as the MLB affiliate, which has to be a rarity.
I think this is a good argument for why the NL Central sucks - three small market teams, one midmarket, and two big markets, one of which "plays" smaller than the numbers say. The Cubs have no excuse.
Any news on the Kyle Blair front with the Dodgers?
Guts--Who in the NLC, other than the Cubs, do you consider "big market?"
I'm curious - why does the greater Boston area include New Hampshire, Maine, and half of CT, while the Detroit area doesn't include much or all of Michigan? Is it a distance thing, or what?
Just unbelievable.
Only if you believe the Sox were willing to actually take and sign an 18 yr old HS pitcher to a 7M MLB contract. I don't think it's at all obvious that they would have been.
The Lugo cost the Sox Porcello whining is already lame and boring (and likely wrong).
he can't hear you he's busy playing madden!
In the 1960s and early '70s, the Twins had a lot of fans throughout the upper Midwest, and that revived to a lesser extent during the Kirby Puckett years. Much of this was due both to having WCCO as the flagship and building a large radio affiliate network of stations in Minnesota, Iowa, the Dakotas and even western Wisconsin (especially the era in between the Braves' departure and Brewers' arrival). This was nothing new for Calvin Griffith, whose Senators had a large network of affiliates in Virginia and the Carolinas (although they didn't have the on-field product to really exploit it). The owners of the expansion Senators gradually let that network dissipate, and now the Nats' radio network is relatively small (although Stan Kasten is doing what he can to expand it throughout Virginia and over on the Eastern Shore).
I agree. Porcello is a great talent, no question, but it's highly unlikely that Boston would have taken him IMO - handing out major league contracts with huge bonuses doesn't seem to square with their philosophy on player development.
I really don't think Porcello's deal changes things significantly for the top picks. Porcello is clearly a special case, and there's little incentive for this year's top picks to wait until next year, especially with MLB likely to reduce the slot numbers even further.
-- MWE
I guess by keeping information from the public they think they can minimize fan pressure to sign a player.
Does anyone else think its a bad idea to give a high school kid a MLB contract? He has to be optioned every year to the minors now, right? So he pretty much has to stick in the big leagues by 2011, or they have to try to pass him through waivers, right? Seems like a bit of a gamble.
Couldn't agree more. Signing talent out of the draft has to be easier for "smaller" market teams (hell, for any team) than signing free agents. Isn't that sort of the whole point of the draft?
Boston absolutely would have drafted Porcello. They would have negotiated of course in their best interest, but in all likelihood would have met his number.
I know this to be true, and would not pull this card but for your silly statement written with such conviction and condescension.
What the Red Sox likely would have done with the money if they hadn't signed Lugo is a separate question from what the poster or anyone else thinks they should have done with the money. I think the Orioles should have a firesale and trade everyone over 25. Of course they're not likely to do that, but that fact standing alone doesn't mean my argument is wrong.
edit: And, of course, if MSB is right, you might be completely wrong about what they would have done.
Yeah. Nashua, NH is about the same distance from Boston as Ann Arbor, MI is from Detroit (43-44 miles). Flint, MI is included in the Detroit CMSA, and Flint is 68 miles away. Go 68 miles from Boston and you could be in Maine or Connecticut.
Detroit gets a pretty big metropolitan area, but Michigan is reasonably big. Grand Rapids, for example, is 157 miles from Detroit. Go 157 miles from Boston, and you are in about Bridgeport, CT, just over 50 miles from Yankee Stadium.
Why did so many large market teams pass on Porcello though?
I always hear "the draft is a crapshoot". Why invest such money in a crapshoot?
As someone who lives in one of those suburbs/exurbs (my trip to the downtown stadium is about an hour), I'm don't think this effect is that great. I go to several games a year, and know others who do. Beyond that, wouldn't this 'exurb effect' be true of several other markets (Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix)? And Houston's city limit ranking (4th) is higher than its metro area ranking, which runs counter to your theory. Finally, a large portion of revenue comes from TV/radio deals, which wouldn't be affected by this at all.
I have never quite gotten that either. It is as if Chicago got its metro area defined first without any regard for Milwaukee, and when they got to Milwaukee, they just said \"#### it, they get the leftovers - stop it at Racine."
I am pretty sure one can take a Metra commuter train from Kenosha to work in Chicago, though. Can Milwaukee offer that? Huh?
Three words: Major league contract.
-- MWE
The closest I can think of is the Mets low-A club in Brooklyn, which has to be part of the same market as the major league club.
The draft already suffers significantly in terms of helping somewhat to boost the weakest teams, but if this stuff becomes commonplace, even with great management, teams like the Royals and Pirates will never be able to draft the best players. That's bad for baseball, I think.
If you factor in that the A's have half (probably less than half) of the SF-Oakland market (4.1 million), then could you make the argument that the Sacramento market (2 million) is probably larger than the A's? I don't know the area all that well.
As I said above, the 4.1 million figure doesn't reflect the market. The San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose metro area has about 7 million people.
A quick and simplified analysis would give Alameda County and Contra Costa County (around 2.5 million total) to the A's. Yeah, there are a lot of Giants fans there, but the A's are also going to draw some fans from San Jose and from Solano County.
I've never lived in the western part of the state, but I know that at least until a few years ago, Kalamazoo had a Cubs radio affiliate, and there were a few Brewers affiliates further up the coast as well.
In the blog that Callis linked here, he mentions that the 9-12 picks want 2006 slot money, which is around $200,000 more than 2007 slot money. I can't speak for the other teams, but the Dbacks would be silly to let Parker go for mere $200,000 or so. Methinks they'll sign him.
I consider Houston, the #6 metro area in the country, big market.
I meant, how much of a sure thing is Porcello? I don't know anything about this guy. Is he definitely going to be Beckett? If so, it's a good signing. But I remember people carving Hall of Fame plaques for Todd Van Poppel, too.
Three words: Major league contract.
Why do young players insist on this? I mean, I know why. But why? I'm sure they have the confidence that they will be ready for the majors very soon. But their agent or some smart adviser should be able to take a longer view and realize these contracts can hurt their development. It's possible Wily Mo never developed as he should have, because Cincy couldn't let him play in the minors when he was 20 so he just sat on the bench. But who knows for sure...
Well, if it works out, it should work out spectacularly well for him (he'll hit the Free Agent market at, what, 25?), and even in a worst-case scenario, he'll get Major-League money for a little while.
FWIW, it has Houston 9th and Detroit 12th.
How long have high schoolers been getting major league contracts? I think it's a fairly new phenomenon, so we won't really see these stalled careers for a couple more years.
Pena is one example of a team being forced to carry their guy, but what about the players who go through the minors in 3 years and come up to the bigs on merit? Those players would love to hit free agency three years earlier.
In the 2003 draft, players like Delmon Young, John Danks, Lastings Milledge, Chad Billingsley, Adam Miller, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Adam Jones would have benefitted from hitting free agency early and not been hurt by being in the majors.
Of course, there's also guys like Ian Stewart where the team has decided that he's not ready yet and he might have sat on the bench if they were forced to keep him.
And then there are the flameouts where the players might get extra benefit from having a major league contract if they never get to the show. I don't know what those benefits are, though. And of course most of the players in that draft that would be considered flameouts are the college players because the high school players aren't old enough to be considered busts just yet.
A major note for the Jays though is that the group who owns them also owns the sports channel that shows the games across the entire country which has a population of 32,989,100 and no other team can claim ground here. Seattle games are shown out west in the Vancouver area, but on the station that shows Blue Jay games (ie: if they choose to they can show just Jays there). The Tigers have a fan base in the southern tip of Ontario but they only see games on the Detroit stations. Likewise Boston on the east coast of Canada. Thus, for local tv rights (the biggest $ area it seems) the Jays owners have almost a monopoly on nearly 33 million viewers, more than any metro area in the US by over 50%. Potentially, if fully exploited, the Jays could have more revenue via tv than anyone else. The Yankees will always be #1 most likely due to their infestation throughout the US (and the world when it comes to baseball recognition) but the Jays have more potential growth than anyone else.
Bottom line? If anyone claims the Jays are not large market they are not checking the facts. It also doesn't hurt to have our dollar closer to par with the US dollar than it has ever been in the Jays existance, with further growth likely (our federal government is paying off debt, we export more than we import, most provinces are paying off debt, we have as much oil potentially as Saudi Arabia). Should be fun being a Jays fan again if they can just sign someone who can hit this winter.
If they are forced to the bigs, their service clock starts, and they hit free agency faster.
Awesome. I can't wait.
Awesome. I can't wait.
Oh, and by the way. I thought the Giants had the best draft, but the rumor is that they won't sign Bumgarner at #10, so that might make me rethink what team had the best draft. Oh, and also, I think I finally found some Zito footage although I'm not sure how usable it'll be...
Looking forward to the article.
Benefits...
1) Team will not hesitate to call you up as your service clock already has started
2) If your team decides to leave you in the minors for whatever reason (including that the management is addicted to an old vet or two) then you get to escape to free agency a whole lot faster than you otherwise would, thus giving you a shot at a career as something other than what a AAAA guy gets
3) All of the above equals more money quicker, and given most baseball careers are short (around 6 years iirc) you want it as quick as you can
Costs...
1) Could be rushed through the minors and reach the majors unprepared
2) ... er ...
Most top level athletes will think they can handle anything, it is just part of what makes a top athlete successful. To them being rushed is not viewed as a serious issue and telling the team they can keep you down for just 3 years before you are in the bigs to stay is a very strong incentive for the player to sign. If I ran a team I'd avoid these deals like the plague as it does tie your hands. What MLB should try to do is make it so players drafted cannot sign major league contracts or clauses that basically make their contract a ML one (ie: guaranteed September call-up in year one). I suspect the union could be talked into this one as it keeps current ML'ers on the roster longer (keeps slots open) while not costing money in an obvious way.
True. But as you go on to note, a lot of Canada isn't made up of Jays fans, because of regional loyalties or anti-Toronto sentiments. B.C. has a ton of Mariners fans; Southwestern Ontario has Tigers fans; Quebec and the Maritimes have a lot of Red Sox fans; Manitoba has Twins fans and it goes on and on. Most fans won't switch their loyalties, even if the Jays are on TV 140 times a season. This is especially true in an era of MLB Extra Innings, MLB.com TV and so on. All of this is a country that cares relatively little about baseball compared to the United States.
Toronto is a large market, for sure. But Canada isn't a vast territory of Jays fans just waiting to watch 100+ a games a year.
That is correct, and I wonder if that has anything to do with Kenosha's designation as part of the Chicago metro area. Northwest Indiana (also connected to Chicago by commuter rail) is also considered part of the metro area. (Then again, that makes more intuitive sense than Kenosha; there's no Milwaukee-esque city to compete with Chicago in NW Indiana.)
Your service clock has not started til you are on a big league roster. Getting a MLB contract does not change that.
I imagine the whole MLB contract thing is usually leverage to get more money. I'm just surprised a team actually caved in and gave it a high school kid.
I'll include them now...
Crosby-bleh, he's a "nice" pitcher I guess. Long arm action, tall and fall guy, just not enough 'oomph' for my liking. I see him and I see Mark Hendrickson at best. I was more excited about Hamilton than Crosby. OK pick, but the feeling I get is that he's overhyped, but at least not as overhyped as Matt Harvey.
I grew up in the Kalamazoo area, which is definitely Tiger country. I think ex-pat Giants Fan's characterization of "far southwestern Michigan" as Cubs' country is right on (with the emphasis on "far"--K'zoo is basically "central" southwestern Michigan)--in talking about "far" southwestern Michigan, we're basically talking Berrien County, which only has about 160,000 people, and that's the only part of Michigan where I'd say the Cubs/Tigers split is even 50/50.
You are correct that for a while, WQSN in Kalamazoo was a Cubs radio affiliate. There are some Cub fans in Kalamazoo (I was, for one, because of WGN's one-time pervasiveness), but they're a small minority.
Call me stupid, but I need an explanation about this. Your service time starts when you get to the 25-man roster?
Getting a major league contract puts you on the 40-man right away, correct? How does that affect options and such? I'm confused now. I thought a MLB contract started you arb clock...
It's a bit more complicated than that, but more or less, yeah. MLB service time is time spent in the majors, not time on the 40-man.
Getting a major league contract puts you on the 40-man right away, correct? How does that affect options and such? I'm confused now. I thought a MLB contract started you arb clock...
It is very confusing. As far as I know....
A MLB contract puts you on the 40 man roster. This does not start your service time. Being on the active roster starts your service clock. Arbitration is determined only on your service time, as is free agency. But if you are on the 40 man roster you must be optioned to the minors if you are not going to be on the active roster. So players with MLB contracts get their option years started right away, as opposed to other draftees whose option years do not begin until a team places them on the 40 man roster (has to be within four years otherwise they are exposed to the Rule 5 Draft). After three option years, a player must be exposed to waivers to be sent to the minors.
Teams hesitate to call guys up if they are not on the 40 man in order to keep those extra 3 years of minor league time available normally, and if you are already on the 40 man then the team might go 'hey, bonus kid is doing well in AA/AAA lets use him for two weeks rather than the AAAA guy who isn't on the roster already' instead of 'bonus kid is doing well, but he isn't on the roster yet so rather than have to protect him this winter lets call up AAAA guy'. I figure most teams won't worry too much about giving a kid 2 weeks of service time early as odds are it won't impact free agency/arbitration if you intend for the kid to spend part of the next season in the minors.
The big gain is getting those options used up. Take two players signed at 19
Player A: On 40 man - options used up after age 21 season and must be left in the majors or allowed to leave via waivers, still has time to become a regular elsewhere
Player B: Not on 40 man - options not used up until after age 25 season, now has very small window to become a regular or can only be a sub for the rest of his career
Shift by 2-4 years for a college player and the case gets very strong for the player to push hard for that roster spot.
No matter how good a guy is he can easily be trapped due to the team having a star at his position and must count on an injury or good luck via a trade to get a shot (see Ryan Howard for an example here). Say you are a shortstop and the Yankees draft you out of college. Odds are you will never get a shot in the majors unless Jeter breaks his leg or something until your options are used up, which will take 6 years. That could mean you are in the late stages of your prime and you are now screwed if you wanted to be an everyday player.
Any agent worth their salt will push for that 40-man slot if at all possible. To do otherwise is to limit your clients potential earning power drastically.
That's true in theory, but in practice, if you're good enough to make the majors and you're blocked by Jeter, the Yankees would either try having you playing a different position or they'd trade you for someone they can use.
He would not be a FA at age 25 unless he is in the ML fulltime starting next year. Which shouldn't happen.
From MLB rulebook
Keith Law article
You know tons more about this stuff than I do, but I wanted to ask you about your dislike for the 'tall and fall' guys. There are major leaguers with success doing this - isn't it possible that Crosby, or Brackman, or whatever, will too?
Your timing is excellent.... I submitted a Hughes vs. Chamberlain article that I finished YESTERDAY at The Hardball Times. I expect it to come out either tomorrow or the day after, depending on the editors' schedules. To answer your question: Yes, they have changed significantly....here's a sneak peek....
Joba 06 vs. 07
Thanks, CBW.
You know tons more about this stuff than I do, but I wanted to ask you about your dislike for the 'tall and fall' guys. There are major leaguers with success doing this - isn't it possible that Crosby, or Brackman, or whatever, will too?
Very valid question. Yes, there's examples of "tall and fall" the bigs as well. I prefer the hard-throwing, quick-tempo varieties and believe that those are more likely to keep their stuff as they age. That's my main thing....
I hated Joba Chamberlain last year and I'm generally skeptical of organizations that they diagnose mechanics properly. In Joba's case above, he turned from a "hang over the rubber"-type to a quick-tempo, use your momentum type. And I think that has a significant effect on velocity (on most everybody).
Are there organizations that do a better job with this than others? The Tigers have developed a ton of good young pitchers in the past few years, but that is probably more about getting the right guys than making adjustments to maximize talent.
I take it the Tigers can avoid burning an option on Porcello this year by sending him to "extended spring training" or something of the sort (or just giving him the rest of the season off) instead of shipping him immediately to their rookie league team for the last 6 weeks of the season?
Otherwise, he'd burn options in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010, and would thus have to be on the active roster for good by 2011.
Either that, or his major-league contract doesn't start until 2008.
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