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Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Tim Tebow earns each team in the South Atlantic League an extra $44,200 a night

According to Baseball America, the Tebow bump for other teams in the South Atlantic League is real and quite measurable.

Based on the April attendance data, the Tebow effect appears to be roughly 2,210 fans per night. Minor league teams estimate that the average fan will spend $20 per person if they come to the ballpark. That counts ticket sales, concessions and souvenirs. So Tebow is worth roughly an additional $44,200 per night.

As I argued at the time, Tebow had the athleticism to win a danged Heisman Trophy, so it’s not that weird to gamble on him. There are about 330 players in the typical minor-league organization. About 290 of them will flame out before reaching the majors. Kids are drafted because they’re tall, with the hope they’ll add velocity. They’re drafted because they’re fast, and the organization hopes they will teach them how to hit.

If the players can’t do these things, they’re kicked out of the airplane. It’s cruel, but so is the entire industry. In this context, it’s not that strange to see if a football player can baseball better than he could football.

Now add in the money. That sweet, sweet cash. This doesn’t include all of the Tebow merchandise the Mets are grifting from fans who either don’t quite understand how far away he is from the majors or love a semi-ironic shirsey as much as the rest of us. These are benefits that, say, the Twins didn’t get when they kept the manager’s kid around in the minors. This is that, but more athleticism and a helluva lot more money.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 17, 2017 at 09:22 AM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, minor league attendance, tim tebow, tim tebow tim tebow tim tebow tim tebow tim tebow tim tebow

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   1. Cargo Cultist Posted: May 17, 2017 at 10:20 AM (#5457313)
Cha-CHING!!!
   2. Bote Man Posted: May 17, 2017 at 10:33 AM (#5457317)
I wonder how much people would pay for a plug-in that filters out all mentions of Tebow??
   3. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 17, 2017 at 10:27 PM (#5458082)
People said giving Tebow $100k was dumb by Mets, they'll turn a profit 3 home games after promoting him to one of their own minor league franchises.
   4. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 18, 2017 at 06:04 AM (#5458156)

People said giving Tebow $100k was dumb by Mets, they'll turn a profit 3 home games after promoting him to one of their own minor league franchises.

I agree, although the average fan spending $20 doesn't mean that they make $20 in profit per fan -- presumably there are costs to providing concessions and souvenirs. But yeah, the point still stands. And while he's not hitting well, it's not like Tebow is embarrassing himself out there.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: May 18, 2017 at 08:10 AM (#5458185)
What would the baseball equivalent of Tim Tebow's NFL career be?
   6. dlf Posted: May 18, 2017 at 08:19 AM (#5458190)
Jeff Francouer
   7. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 18, 2017 at 09:18 AM (#5458224)
Jeff Francouer

Yep, and they even look alike.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: May 18, 2017 at 10:00 AM (#5458267)
Huh. That's a good answer.
   9. Lassus Posted: May 18, 2017 at 10:16 AM (#5458282)
Seems like Francouer had a lot more MLB success than Tebow had NFL success.
   10. base ball chick Posted: May 18, 2017 at 11:29 AM (#5458356)
Lassus Posted: May 18, 2017 at 10:16 AM (#5458282)

Seems like Francouer had a lot more MLB success than Tebow had NFL success


- most definitely
AND frenchy was like 10 years younger when he started in the minors

i disremember - did michael jordan get this kind of attention when he went to play minor league baseball?

of course i am not exactly a football fan, but i am not getting why on earth this guy, who, according to every male i know who knows anything about football, this guy was such a lousy football player, has such a fan following with BASEBALL fans

   11. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 18, 2017 at 11:35 AM (#5458366)
i disremember - did michael jordan get this kind of attention when he went to play minor league baseball?


Hell yes. Probably more.
   12. dlf Posted: May 18, 2017 at 11:36 AM (#5458368)
i disremember - did michael jordan get this kind of attention when he went to play minor league baseball?


Yes, absolutely. He was, for example, on the cover of Sports Illustrated and covered pretty much every day on ESPN. The Birmingham attendance skyrocketed, even at that crappy little Hoover park they used to have in the suburbs. The fact that he and some AA teammates went to Sammy's, a third-rate strip club in B'ham, was in the regional news for days. Then there was all the speculation about gambling suspension and discussion of his father's death.

   13. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: May 18, 2017 at 11:43 AM (#5458378)
What would the baseball equivalent of Tim Tebow's NFL career be?


Mark Fidrych. Short careers marked by success despite unsustainable statistics. Signature mannerisms (talking to the ball, "Tebowing" and the jump-pass).

   14. dlf Posted: May 18, 2017 at 11:52 AM (#5458395)
Mark Fidrych. Short careers marked by success despite unsustainable statistics. Signature mannerisms (talking to the ball, "Tebowing" and the jump-pass).


And both of them threw a ball that didn't move very fast, and wobbled and dove on its way to its intended destination.
   15. base ball chick Posted: May 18, 2017 at 12:25 PM (#5458468)
question

did tebow himself have NFL success or was he on TEAMS that had NFL success despite his suckage?

i asked my brother about comparing him to any ballplayer and he said - think of any, uh, pimpee who was high on the prospect list, who was brought up multiple times and could not avoid ML bats or hit ML p[itching

brandon wood, sean burroughs, dewon brazelton

but probably not even then because they were superstars in the minors and my brothe3r the football fan says that tebow wasn't actually any good in the minors (college) - kind of like a pitcher who throws 99 but has no breaking ball
   16. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 18, 2017 at 12:34 PM (#5458481)

Mark Fidrych. Short careers marked by success despite unsustainable statistics


This is really unfair to Fidrych, who was a legitimately outstanding pitcher for a season. Fidrych led the AL in WAR by a huge amount in 1976.
   17. dlf Posted: May 18, 2017 at 12:37 PM (#5458483)
my brothe3r the football fan says that tebow wasn't actually any good in the minors (college)


He was very good in college, but it took a different skill set than in the NFL. He didn't need quick decision making or accurate passes. But he was as good a running back as any in the SEC then and with Urban M's wide open short passing had a lot of open looks. It isn't a perfect analogy, but his college performance and lack of transition to the pros is more akin to an excellent cricket bowler not being able to make it in baseball - similar sport with many of the same physical challenges but sufficiently different that mastering one doesn't mean mastering the other.

This isn't too uncommon for even Heisman winning college QBs as Charlie Ward, Andre Ware, and many others would attest and as shown by the greater NFL than college success of folks from Johnny Unitas to Tom Brady.
   18. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 18, 2017 at 12:41 PM (#5458487)
This is really unfair to Fidrych, who was a legitimately outstanding pitcher for a season. Fidrych led the AL in WAR by a huge amount in 1976.


I was just going to say that. If you want a guy with a short career, lots of hype, but not really that good, maybe Joe Charboneau.
   19. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: May 18, 2017 at 12:49 PM (#5458502)
but probably not even then because they were superstars in the minors and my brothe3r the football fan says that tebow wasn't actually any good in the minors (college) - kind of like a pitcher who throws 99 but has no breaking ball


That's not entirely true. Tebow was a great college player (he won the Heisman as a sophomore for goodness sake), but his success at Florida was outsized in comparison to his skill level. Urban Meyer (his coach at Florida) ran an innovative offense isn't really run at the pro level (especially not at that time). Meyer spread the offense out and then let Tebow run the ball a great deal of the time on read options. Tebow is built like a Mack truck and could run over smaller college teams and withstand the blows from bigger teams without suffering serious injury. NFL defenses are so fast and strong that Tebow's effectiveness running the ball was never going to translate to the pro game. Meyer also surrounded Tebow with a great offensive line, a bunch of playmakers on offense, and good defenses, too. At the college level, I would compare him to Jim Palmer. Both were great players, but played on teams that maximized their successes well beyond their skillsets. Tebow had an innovative coach, a great supporting cast, and his strengths played perfectly into the game he was asked to play. Palmer had an innovative manager, an all-time great defense behind him, and his strengths played perfectly into the game he was asked to play. Jim Palmer is a legitimate hall of famer. He's just not as good as he might appear on the surface. Tebow is a legitimate hall of famer at the college level. He's just not as good as he might appear on the surface.

At the professional level, Tebow was probably pretty similar to Brandon Wood or someone like that. Both were legitimate standouts one level below the top, because both had skillsets tailored to their situation at the AAA/college level. However, both of them had flaws that were exposed at the top level. Both of their strengths were neutered or became ordinary at the next level. Tebow was no longer bigger than a lot of the guys on the other side of the ball. No one runs the spread run in the NFL. He's not good at the highly accurate throws that NFL quarterbacks are expected to make with a quick release. He had never had to fit the ball into tight windows, because (1) Urban Meyer's offense didn't ask him to throw into tight windows, and (2) his receivers were two steps ahead of their defenders in a lot of college games. Brandon Wood could afford to strike out too much in the minors, because he crushed the ball when he made contact. But major league pitchers don't make as many mistakes. Major league pitchers strike out even more batters. And guys who can crush mistake pitches are a dime a dozen in the majors.

EDIT: Coke to dlf, who said what I said but much more succinctly.
   20. GGC for Sale Posted: May 18, 2017 at 12:55 PM (#5458509)
Graham, that's too nuanced for a sportswriter ;). I think there's also guys who couldn't make the transition from elite college basketball player to NBA success.
   21. base ball chick Posted: May 18, 2017 at 02:33 PM (#5458668)
graham

very interesting. my brother said something, uh, not nice (ahem) um, about how any GRRRRRL softball player throws better than tebow and a QB who can't throw is, uh, um, lacking - yeah, that is the word. and tebow is, from what i have seen, TERRIBLE at throwing a baseball, too

ida know bout jim palmer except that he was absolutely impossibly handsome and smoking HOTTTTTTTTT - well, i mean, uh
about his ground-ball iness

but i would compare him to chris sampson, a really good sinker-ball GB pitcher who seldom got Ks, who required elite defense to be good, who sank when his elite quality SS got hurt - seeing as how he had a subpar defender at second AND 3rd

but maybe not - IF a major league QB is required to be a great thrower and tebow couldn't throw, how he EVER got a major league job i do not know

why on earth didn't he transition to something he COULD do like be a running back or corner back? i mean, there are all kinds of position players who transitioned to pitching when they couldn't hit better quality pitching
   22. villageidiom Posted: May 18, 2017 at 02:45 PM (#5458681)
why on earth didn't he transition to something he COULD do like be a running back or corner back?
If any team has had a knack for converting NFL players to different positions it'd be the Patriots. They found no use for him.
   23. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: May 18, 2017 at 02:59 PM (#5458703)
Fidrych did have a legitimately great rookie season, but he also struck out 3.5 batters per 9 innings and the number of pitchers who have had sustained success with so few strikeouts has got to be a pretty short one.
   24. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: May 18, 2017 at 03:35 PM (#5458756)
Fidrych did have a legitimately great rookie season, but he also struck out 3.5 batters per 9 innings and the number of pitchers who have had sustained success with so few strikeouts has got to be a pretty short one.


I'm messing around with play index to find out a reasonable ceiling for this type of player. 3 < K/9 < 4 and sorted by WAR returns a pretty equal mix of deadball era and 19th century players plus some '20s-'30s pitchers. The top guy is Cy Young with a K/9 of 3.4 and 170.1 WAR. That's not very useful.

If I move the cutoff to 1901 to present, then I pick up some more deadball era guys plus a lot more '20s-'30s players. The top guy is Pete Alexander with a K/9 of 3.8 and 116.9 WAR. That's also not very useful.

If I move the cutoff to 1947 to present, then the list starts to take much better shape, but you still pick up several players who are more closely associated with the 1940s rather than the '70s or today. You have an aging Dutch Leonard, Mel Parnell, Eddie Lopat, Murry Dickson's* from ages 30 - 42, and Ken Raffensberger. The top guy is Ned Garver with a K/9 of 3.2 and 38.6 WAR. That still doesn't feel like what we're looking for.

If I move the cutoff to 1961 to present, then I think I've finally found the list we're looking for here. There is only one pitcher with 30+ WAR (and by the skin of his teeth, no less) and seven others that eclipse 20 WAR. Here's the top 20 by WAR:

Rk Player          WAR  SO9  From To   Age  W L W-LSV IP ERA ERA+
1  Jim Barr        30.6 3.23 1971 1983 23-35 101 112 0.474 12 2065.1 3.56 105
2  Dan Quisenberry 24.8 3.27 1979 1990 26
-37 56  46 0.549 244 1043.1 2.76 146
3  Bob Stanley     23.9 3.65 1977 1989 22
-34 115 97 0.542 132 1707 3.64 118
4  Paul Splittorff 22.5 3.72 1970 1984 23
-37 166 143 0.537 1 2554.2 3.81 101
5  Larry Gura      21.8 3.52 1970 1985 22
-37 126 97 0.565 14 2047 3.76 106
6  Bill Lee        21.3 3.30 1969 1982 22
-35 119 90 0.569 19 1944.1 3.62 108
7  Geoff Zahn      20.7 3.43 1973 1985 27
-39 111 109 0.505 1 1849 3.74 107
8  Scott McGregor  20.2 3.80 1976 1988 22
-34 138 108 0.561 5 2140.2 3.99 98
9  Bob Forsch      19.2 3.65 1974 1989 24
-39 168 136 0.553 3 2794.2 3.76 98
10 Randy Jones     19.0 3.42 1973 1982 23
-32 100 123 0.448 2 1933 3.42 101
11 Mike Caldwell   18.8 3.51 1971 1984 22
-35 137 130 0.513 18 2408.2 3.81 99
12 Carl Morton     17.7 3.55 1969 1976 25
-32 87  92 0.486 1 1648.2 3.73 102
13 Jim Slaton      17.3 3.99 1971 1986 21
-36 151 158 0.489 14 2683.2 4.03 94
14 Greg Minton     17.0 3.81 1975 1990 23
-38 59  65 0.476 150 1130.2 3.1 118
15 Jim Colborn     16.5 3.88 1969 1978 23
-32 83  88 0.485 7 1597.1 3.8 98
16 Kirk Rueter     16.0 3.84 1993 2005 22
-34 130 92 0.586 0 1918 4.27 97
17 Al Fitzmorris   16.0 3.23 1969 1978 23
-32 77  59 0.566 7 1277 3.65 101
18 Dave Rozema     15.9 3.65 1977 1986 20
-29 60  53 0.531 17 1106 3.47 118
19 Ed Figueroa     15.9 3.92 1974 1981 25
-32 80  67 0.544 1 1309.2 3.51 105
20 Aaron Cook      15.6 3.70 2002 2012 23
-33 76  79 0.49 0 1406.1 4.6 103 



*Dickson looks like a good player, but I had never heard of him before now.
   25. Greg Pope Posted: May 18, 2017 at 03:36 PM (#5458758)
why on earth didn't he transition to something he COULD do like be a running back or corner back? i mean, there are all kinds of position players who transitioned to pitching when they couldn't hit better quality pitching

I think he could have transitioned to running back. I seem to recall him refusing to do it. Although that might be a little strong. I don't know that any of him teams asked him to (in public anyway). I think it was more media suggestions and he responded that he wasn't interested in doing that.
   26. base ball chick Posted: May 18, 2017 at 04:06 PM (#5458804)
i remember kirk reuter
hard to believe he ever got anyone out - his stuff didn't LOOK very good

and he's a guy who has a really good W/L record in spite of being league average or just below league average
   27. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: May 18, 2017 at 04:09 PM (#5458808)
He was too slow to be an HB, but he maybe could've played fullback. Just not much money or glory or playing time involved in that. He did Sa he wasn't interested.
   28. base ball chick Posted: May 18, 2017 at 04:19 PM (#5458820)
27. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: May 18, 2017 at 04:09 PM (#5458808)

He was too slow to be an HB, but he maybe could've played fullback. Just not much money or glory or playing time involved in that. He did Sa he wasn't interested.


very interesting

here and i thought his selling point is that he is so Umble
   29. GGC for Sale Posted: May 18, 2017 at 04:52 PM (#5458871)
I mainly recall Murry Dickson for the way his name is spelled.
   30. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 18, 2017 at 05:09 PM (#5458889)
Fidrych did have a legitimately great rookie season, but he also struck out 3.5 batters per 9 innings and the number of pitchers who have had sustained success with so few strikeouts has got to be a pretty short one.


You really need to adjust for era here. When Fidrych struck out 3.5 per 9 innings, the AL average was 4.7, so Fidrych had 75 percent of the league average. The AL K/9 this year is 8.2; 75 percent of that is 6.15, which is about the level of Danny Duffy or Dylan Bundy.
   31. Greg Pope Posted: May 18, 2017 at 05:54 PM (#5458930)
very interesting

here and i thought his selling point is that he is so Umble


I'm not a fan of Tebow, but to be fair, I don't think it was the money/glory. I think he said that he didn't want to put his body through that kind of punishment.
   32. bigglou115 Posted: May 18, 2017 at 06:07 PM (#5458939)


He was very good in college, but it took a different skill set than in the NFL. He didn't need quick decision making or accurate passes. But he was as good a running back as any in the SEC then and with Urban M's wide open short passing had a lot of open looks. It isn't a perfect analogy, but his college performance and lack of transition to the pros is more akin to an excellent cricket bowler not being able to make it in baseball - similar sport with many of the same physical challenges but sufficiently different that mastering one doesn't mean mastering the other.


Thems fighting words. My razorbacks had 2 better running backs than Tebow, and if DMC, Hillis, or Felix had been given the ball in scoring chances as often as Tebow then McFadden wins that Heisman. In point of fact, if that hack coach out of Carolina hadn't excluded McFadden from his ballot out of spite from the 325 yards he put up against his gamecocks then McFadden does win the Heisman anyway.
   33. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: May 18, 2017 at 08:45 PM (#5459034)
I'm not a fan of Tebow, but to be fair, I don't think it was the money/glory. I think he said that he didn't want to put his body through that kind of punishment.

Yeah. My post didn't come across the way I intended it to. Didn't mean to be criticizing Tebow.

This is the only quote I can find from him on the subject: “For me it’s always about pursuing what’s in your heart, what you love, what you’re passionate about, and I love the game of football but what I really love doing is playing the quarterback position. I’ve had a lot of good opportunities to play another position but that just wasn’t in my heart. It wasn’t something I wanted to do. If I was going to make a change I’d rather make a change to baseball.”

Nothing wrong with that at all. Besides, it's not like traveling around playing A-ball is garnering Tebow more money/attention than playing FB or TE in the NFL would.

And for the record, I would not be willing to play fullback in the NFL either, though it's beginning to look unlikely that anyone is even going to offer me the opportunity.
   34. Jesus Frankenstein Posted: May 18, 2017 at 08:58 PM (#5459043)
These threads demonstrate the same outsized fascination with Tebow you see in the attendance figures.
   35. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 18, 2017 at 09:30 PM (#5459061)
In point of fact, if that hack coach out of Carolina hadn't excluded McFadden from his ballot out of spite from the 325 yards he put up against his gamecocks then McFadden does win the Heisman anyway.


How many votes did this coach for Carolina have?

   36. greenback fixes the cable Posted: May 19, 2017 at 12:23 AM (#5459118)
the greater NFL than college success of folks from Johnny Unitas to Tom Brady.

I shouldn't dispute the fundamental insight here, but Brady was a great college quarterback. I will go to my grave thinking that if Lloyd Carr had had the sense to play Brady the full game against Illinois and against State, then Michigan would have been undefeated at the end of the regular season. Since Florida State was awfully damn good, I won't go so far as to say Michigan would've beaten them in the Sugar Bowl. But, again, Brady was not some sort of inverted Tebow.
   37. GGC for Sale Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:28 AM (#5459140)
Are there NBA stars who struggled or didn't excel in college? I recall that Allen Barra once called Unitas the first football player who was famous as a pro despite being virtually anonymous in college.


34. Like Flies On Sherbert Posted: May 18, 2017 at 08:58 PM (#5459043)
These threads demonstrate the same outsized fascination with Tebow you see in the attendance figures.


I'd rather post here than that Pillar thread ;_). I don't see how that would end up well. This discussion about success at different levels is more interesting to me.

   38. Jesus Frankenstein Posted: May 19, 2017 at 08:42 AM (#5459163)
Are there NBA stars who struggled or didn't excel in college?


Dean Smith held Michael Jordan to under 20 ppg. Or take another Heel, the versatile Danny Green, who has never been a star but a key component in both an NCAA and NBA championship.

What anyone does in college now is largely irrelevant to what they do in college. (see Westbrook, Russell)
   39. Jesus Frankenstein Posted: May 19, 2017 at 09:04 AM (#5459173)
Look up Robert Parish in the NCAA record books.
   40. AROM Posted: May 19, 2017 at 09:32 AM (#5459187)
Parish played four years and averaged 21 points and 17 rebounds. Or is that one of those records that the NCAA tries to revise out of history?

Westbrook barely played his first year at UCLA, then averaged 12/4/4 in 33 minutes a game his second year. He's upped the usage rate just a bit.
   41. Jesus Frankenstein Posted: May 19, 2017 at 09:44 AM (#5459195)
Or is that one of those records that the NCAA tries to revise out of history?

Worse. Back in the day, the NCAA would have cut the baby in half.

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