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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, September 17, 2007
OK, I’m going to say it, since nobody on the Mets will dare utter it: The Mets are in trouble.
They could actually blow this now. With their lead in the NL East shrinking just like that from seven to 3½ games, they could easily flush six months of nice baseball down the drain in a matter of a couple of final weeks and find themselves out of the playoffs.
...Because they needed just a single win in this series to stave off a disastrous weekend and, for the life of them, they just couldn’t do it, playing the role of easy pushovers rather than division divas for a whole season.
At the worst of times, they suddenly look like a team that’s way too soft and too passionless and too young and too dumb.
OK, I’m going to say it, since nobody on the Mets will dare utter it: F-ner.
Repoz
Posted: September 17, 2007 at 11:46 AM | 96 comment(s)
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1. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: September 17, 2007 at 12:26 PM (#2528202)-- MWE
We'll see how good a thing that is when the Mets are down 4-0 after two innings tonight. In a sense the Marlins and Nats are scarier than the Phillies could ever hope to be. (Todd Dunwoody says hi).
If there's one positive thing here, it's that the last two World Champions went through what the Mets are going through.
Whenever I think that in some strange way it might actually make sense for the Phillies to still be in contention, I then remind myself that even Cole Hamels has been injured, and therefore it makes no sense at all.
Hamels is going to be back tomorrow, against the Cardinals' most prolific starting pitcher this season, TBA.
I blame <a href="http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070915&c>Marlon Anderson</a>. Comic Book Guy is not a model for success in your career or interpersonal relationships.
In the Mets go 7-7, Philly needs to go 12-1 to catch 'em.
That is all.
I hope this isn't the math Van Lingle Mungo Jerry was talking about.
Excuse me, but that is just utter nonsense. They are throwing a AAA pitcher tonight; it is utterly possible that the lead will be down to 2.5 by midnight. There is a good chance that El Duque may not pitch again this year, and if he does there's a better than good chance he won't be effective. Reyes is playing some of the dumbest, and oddest, baseball I've seen anybody play in a very long time. They played progressively worse in each game of the series this past weekend, culminating in the worst game of the season, in which I can't decide if it looked more like they didn't care or that they cared so much they couldn't play.
Don't get me wrong; the odds are that the Mets WILL win the East. The Phillies just haven't been good and consistent enough in the pitching department to mount the charge it would take through the end of the season. They probably have to go at least 10-3 to catch the Mets, and while that's possible, I don't think it's likely.
But to say the Mets only chance to lose the division is mathematical is just wrong. There is plenty wrong here, and enough wrong that they could Mauch it.
Well, as I have pointed out elsewhere if the games were in SD then the Brewers would have no shot. Being a team of flyball hitters the Crew's longball routine is regularly defeated by Petco. In the series earlier this year Fielder hit 3 balls that would likely have been out most other ballparks.
Milwaukee will still be challenged as those guys are legitimately good pitchers. But at least they aren't also fighting the surroundings..........
LOL!
Sorry, I got to that doing quick & dirty math in my head this AM.
More like 7-7 for the Metsies, 10-3 phor the Phils.
No disagreement, Sam- but even if El Duque is shelved, which obviously is possible, the Mets will still be throwing a quality starter nearly every time out (tonight, obviously, EXTREMEMLY excepted- where is Philip Humber?) while their opponents, well... won't. It is my hope that should Lawrence get knocked around again tonight, that Humber would get another potential replacing El Duque start (well, my backup hope- top hope is there isn't another replacement for Duque start).
But even tonight- The gap between Mets offense v. Mike Bacsik should be greater than Nats offense v. Brian Lawrence. Mind you, it may well not play out that way. This is the unpredictable nature of baseball.
Lawrence ain't no great shakes, but I can't imagine giving Humber his first ML start in the thick of a pennant race. I don't know why they're not just pitching everyone on their normal rest.
Mets.com shows Tim "Otis" Redding as the Nats probable starter tonight. Either way, if the Mets don't play decent ball, they'll be sitting by the dock of the bay come early October . . . gone fishin'.
The return of Joe Smith does, at last, give Willie Randolph an actual option other than either going to the Human Torch (a/k/a Guillermo Mota) or risk completely burning out Heilman and Feliciano in the 6th-8th innings every single day. I'm just hoping that this "I have faith in Mota" stuff is lip service he pays that, translated, means, "What the hell am I supposed to do but say I believe in him, since I can't trash the guy when I have no better option but to pitch him and pray???" Well, now he can at least try Smith and hope for a revival of his early season form. Smith and Heilman from the right side, and Feliciano (with Schoeneweis as a LOOGY) is enough depth in the set-up corps for the rest of the season. We should rarely see Mota the rest of the way unless Smith just can't get it done. If we do, Willie has no excuses.
Because that isn't in the Pedro Rehabilitation Plan™. It's pretty clear they want him on five, rather than four, days rest. Hence the need for a replacement for El Duque, AND a start from Pelfrey on Wednesday.
I like the idea of throwing Mota out there with a crazy-quick hook and a 1-inning maximum usage. When his stuff is on, he's unhittable and when he's off, everyone but Randolph seems to know about it.
I don't see what else it could be.
heh.
I don't see what else it could be.
If Willie, despite overwhelming evidence, didn't keep using him in these situations (tied, sixth inning, chance ot go up 5.5 with two weeks left), I'd agree with you.
My issue isn't with the Mets' postseason chances. It's what Willie does with Mota (and frankly, Sosa and Schoeneweis) when he gets there.
Say what you will about Sosa, but the man has always gotten righties out (career .229/.294/.373) and failed to get lefties out (.296/.385/.504). Those splits are more extreme in 2007 (.195/.245/.285, .324/.401/.545). Statistically, there was no pitcher who was a worse pick against Dobbs with the bases loaded than Sosa on the roster. None.
Schoeneweis is the problem in reverse- but Willie at least seems to better understand that than he did earlier this year (and surprise! His ERA has gone down!)
No! No, no, no, no! If we're going to have a nickname for Tim Redding, we need to call him Cannonball Tim Redding. I am unanimous in this.
Somebody get the man a spreadsheet that's not in street Spanish, for crying out loud.
I'm certainly glad to know you're not schizophrenic and at war with yourself on this profound question, Crispix.
Putting aside this three-game hiccup and cliches of the "never say never" variety, the Mets are still going to win the East. The sky is not falling.
There is a wide gulf between "there is no chance they will lose the East" and "the sky is falling." I believe my position falls into that gap: there IS a chance they could lose it, and that chance is genuine but slim. The Mets certainly could play 6-8 ball over 14 games -- it's not particularly likely, but it's also not a "no chance" sort of thing. The Phillies could go 10-3 -- again, not the most likely thing, but it's not out of the realm of possibility with their schedule. The last three days put losing the division into play. You can deny it if you like, but it's there. I'm not Chicken Little about it, but I'm not an ostrich, either, so my head's not buried in the sand.
That's definitely fair. If the Mets took 2 of the 3 games vs. Philly, it would have been in the "all but mathematical" realm. The miserable performance made it more of a "small, but still non-zero chance."
I'd be suspicious about this comment concerning any pitcher, but with Mota it seems exactly incorrect to me. There have been a number of innings where he overpowered the first two batters only to get wrecked by the next three. Or innings where he let in a run or two and finished it off by looking dominant. Mota is never on and he's never unhittable. His stuff always looks good - and he is always horrible. A reliever with an ERA over 5.00 has no business on a playoff-bound team.
Mota is useless unless
Maybe now it's not so surprising to me that Minaya and Randolph still have some faith in Mota - because people here do too apparently. Do you need to assure yourselves that he is one of those magical Rusch/Woodward/Rupe style DIPS defiers?
Guys ... Mota is a horrible pitcher, no exceptions, no "when he does this" or "if he can do that." There shouldn't be any debate about his potential or ability.
This may or may not be true. But how on earth to do risk a whole season on finding out, when there are so many better options at any point?
Well, now. As I said in the game chat yesterday, this is (to me) a staff-wide issue: too many of their pitchers simply don't throw strikes consistently. Maine. Perez. Mota. Sosa. Schoeneweis. Feliciano. Pelfrey. The Mets are fifth worst in the NL in walks allowed, better only than the Giants, Marlins, Cubs, and Nationals.
To me, this is a failure of approach from the manager and pitching coach, and a failure of execution from the pitchers -- both. Chris Dial keeps wanting to harp on Peterson/Randolph, and my disagreement with him is not on the substance but on the fact he puts it so completely on the coaching side. The pitchers have to execute the pitches, too, and they simply haven't when the need to throw strikes presents itself. It's been abysmal, and Mota is only one (and probably the worst) offender.
What Peterson does RIGHT is to emphasize mental approach, and the idea that the pitcher has to be aggressive with his best stuff. He also wants the pitcher to have solid, repeatable mechanics. I like all that stuff. But I rarely, if ever, hear him talk about throwing strikes, so if he is preaching it to the staff, he is doing it awfully quietly. And I'd guess not nearly enough. And Randolph ought to make it clear as day: pitchers who don't throw strikes won't stay on the mound very long, and if they keep it up, they won't get to the mound in the first place. Period.
But Mota, specifically? He's not going to start throwing strikes. Don't kid yourself.
That's hilarious. i can picture him singing the "Umbrella" song, saying, "worst call ever-ever-ever-ay-ay"
Absolutely.
Sublime???? Couldn't this have occurred in one of the Braves' 352 ####### consecutive division titles, rather than when the Mets are going for their first time ever trying to win back-to-back? I mean, I can think of words other than "sublime" to describe this experience, if it happens.
Glavine, 2.84 bb/9
Duque, 7.75 k/9
Perez, 8.82 k/9
Maine, 7.81 k/9
Pelfrey, doesn't have either and that's why he was demoted.
Sosa, 3.32 bb/9
Wags, has both.
Mota, has solid k/9 and bb/9 ratios but special case because his control is worse than it looks.
Heilman, 2.01 bb/9
Pedro II, 7.98 K/9
Smith, 8.47 k/9
Schoenewis, bad season overall.
You can't have everything you want most of the time. Sure, you'd like guys who strike people out and don't walk anyone but those guys don't grow on trees.
B-Pro's playoff odds:
NL East Champions
Mets 94.63930
Phillies 5.32180
That's pretty much what I was talking about with my first comment in the thread.
I think this is a terrible approach. For a team that plays generally strong defense, in a big ballpark, you do not need, and should not want, this tradeoff. The strikeouts are not worth it if they come at the expense of an inordinately high walk rate. You can pitch to contact in Shea Stadium and do just fine if you don't walk people, as Tom Glavine demonstrates. All you do with the walks is set offenses up in situations they couldn't earn with the underlying quality of their offense.
Throw some grounders. They're more democratic.
I think you use Mota until he gives up a second baserunner and then hook him. But it's not like I use him in front of Heilman, Smith, Feliciano. I use him instead of Schoenweis against a righty or Sosa vs. a lefty. He's better than Sele too. But he's not useless and he has the potential to provide value if his stuff is on.
I do, too. But I use Smith against a righty ahead of Mota. I use Collazo against a lefty ahead of Sosa. I use Heilman and Feliciano for whole innings first. I use Pelfrey at this point for whole innings first, and in the postseason.
This reminds me of the classic All in the Family episode in which Sammy Davis, Jr., visited the Bunkers, and delivered this classic riposte to Archie:
Mota ain't better than nobody.
What you are describing is precisely a pitcher without any value.
The 6th best arm in the pen, unable to go more than an inning, and subject to immediate hooks if his stuff isn't "on" (which it either never or always is depending on your point of view). A pitcher with that usage pattern could not help any team in any way.
You guys will be all right. The 2005 White Sox, with a much bigger lead, caused a LOT of anxiety before finally managing to win a game from Cleveland and ... well, you know the rest.
Cream or sugar, I believe, when he was serving him coffee. This was (of course) just after he'd warned Gloria, Mike, and Edith not to mention his eye. Great stuff. And perfectly played by that cast.
AITF was an amazing show in its first few seasons -- ground-breaking doesn't even begin to describe it. The subjects it discussed, the boldness of its characters, the willingness to show working-class people. Once Mike and Gloria left for California it lost a lot, and it became unwatchable once Edith died. But in the early days? Greatness.
And yes, Archie was a Mets' fan.
If there's anything that stops the Sox from taking the WS this year, it's got to be that the Yanks have their best bullpen since 2001. The Mets are hideously inconsistent.
Jackie Gleason says hello.
Or Bell. Or Bradford. Bradford was a major stabilizing force in the bullpen last year, especially with Willie's usage patterns.
I think it's good that Mota and Sosa are stinking out the joint right now. That way, Willie won't be crazy enough to trust them in similar situations in October. (Er, who are we kidding? Who can figure out what's running inside Willie's head when it comes to the bullpen.)
I would rather than Pelfrey start than Lawrence tonight. But first we need to get Reyes et al. back on track and play some good fundamental baseball.
He's better than Armando Benitez.
Fair enough. But The Honeymooners didn't combine that with the frank treatment of social taboos like racism, war and peace, feminism, etc. All in the Family showed audiences the fuller world in which the Kramdens/Bunkers lived, worked, and struggled.
1986! The Rematch!
Except what scares me is that Guillermo Mota might just play the role of Calvin Schiraldi, right down to the haunted, vacant look in his eyes.
Since Pelfrey is starting on Wednesday, the bigger question is why not Humber? Actually, I think the biggest question is: "Are the Mets going to pitch Pedro on regular rest at all this season?"
That isn't to say that I'd give up on him as a starter, but at worst he'd be another Jorge Sosa in the pen (which is to say, an improvement on Mota and Sele).
Absolutely.
I think in a couple years every team is going to start taking pride in having more than five guys who can be serviceable starters, instead of seeing it as an opportunity to "trade from depth". Starting pitchers get hurt, a lot.
I still like the Vargas deal, especially since his lack of velocity this year looks like it was due to injury.
The Bell deal was the one that deserves to be questioned because what Omar got in the deal was never going to help the Mets. Johnson is completely redundant in the Met organization with Milledge and Gomez in the system. That said, how do we know teams were willing to give up more than that for Bell?
Honestly, I think Omar has a different offseason if he knew Dirty was going to be out the entire season.
What are you going to do with these guys though? Schoeneweis, IMO, was going to be signed no matter what because he does get lefties out. Even this year, he is doing that. Minaya made moves this season under the assumption that Heilman, Dirty, Mota, Sosa and Burgos would be enough relief from the right side. I don't think that was faulty thinking. A lot has gone wrong in that respect.
Why trade Bell in the 1st place if you get back a player who is redundant and effectively completely worthless to the team? If you really dislike Bell that much, just cut him and save the roster spot.
And having depth should never be a problem.
Anyway, this is more of a curiosity of 'Look how badly every one of those trades worked out' than a claim that I wouldn't have made them or would have done better building a bullpen.
Bannister's peripherals don't really match his results:
Year Inn HR K BB2006 38 4 19 22
2007 159 12 42 75
His K/9 is under 4.5. His K/BB is less that 2:1. He has good HR numbers (especially considering his home park). There is no reason why he should have a 141 ERA+. So either he's better than his peripherals, or he's very lucky.
If this team does not make the post-season, it will be quite humorous.
As a side note: The Yankees currently have a better record than the Mets.
I agree with Sam's description. The show was legitimately ground-breaking, and equally important, funny as hell. The cast was excellent, especially JS (as Edith) and C O'C (as Archie). Then, Mike and Gloria left, and don't even get me started about "Archie's Place."
3 words: Winkle van Heusen. Funniest line in the history of television.
It's interesting to look back at the thread for that trade. You'll rarely see a challenge trade where both fanbases are so convinced they snookered the other side.
Of course, I myself am on record in that thread talking up the glories of Ryan Shealy. Quoting Yogi: Predicting is hard -- especially the future.
I loved this show and agree with the above. My grandfather was Archie Bunker through and through--a product of his era insofar as race-relations went but when it came crunch time, he'd come through and do the right thing.
He was a true 'meritocratic'--while he had his various racial/ethnic issues, his bottom line was that a person's character was waaaaay more important to him than his racial background.
I miss him. He died when I was 20 but he probably gave me the best piece of advice I ever received. I think I was about eight and while I was visiting him I got into some kind of trouble that eight-year olds get into and I was trying to cover my tracks.
He took me aside and told me: "Listen Johnny (yes, he called me Johnny--right up to his dying day) when you do something wrong, admit it completely, look them in the eye apologize and mean it and people will bend over backwards to forgive you."
He was right. It took me a few years of occasional attempts at butt-covering with less than optimal results before it fully sunk in. However during that learning curve every time I followed his advice things went well. Heh, I think I get my love God/hate religion mindset from him. He served overseas in WWII and became completely disgusted with the various churches for acting as recruiting agents for the army and ministers blessing the troops or splashing holy water on weapons. He felt that God was likely disgusted with both sides of the conflict and found it obscene that the clergy tried to paint is as some kind of holy war. He was proud to serve his country but didn't think God had any dog in that particular fight.
Sorry for the stream-of-consciousness monologue but whenever anybody mentions Archie Bunker it reminds me of grandpa.
Best Regards
John
Looking at the Pitch data summary I see something interesting. Mota's only throwing a strike 53% of the time on the first pitch. You need really good stuff to get away with that.
Interestingly, he's throwing a league average percentage of strikes. He's just starting out behind.
I've seen that pattern before and generally can't stand the pitchers who pitch this way. At least I assume he starts out nibbling and then switches to BP. (Don't see enough of him to know)
He's also always had an unusually low percentage of called strike 3s. No idea what this means, but I don't think it's a good thing.
You can have Trachsel back... *ducks*
I relieve my stress by watching that kid get tasered over and over again. In never gets old. "Don't tase me bro!"
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