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1. DarrenA skillful GM should be able to play this off well. Now let's see what Littlefield can do.
On a side note, if they trade Melky, that means Bernie gets another 1 yr contract and is the 4th OF, right?
What are the Yankees going to do with Luis Gonzalez? They've already got a couple of left handed hitting outfielder and DH types. The already too old.
After reading the article and realizing that its about Mike Gonzalez, I'm still not impressed. Teams and agents always float these Yankee rumors when they're trying to get some negotiating leverage. Unless the Yankee scouts think this guy is Mariano's eventual replacement, I don't see the Yankees outbidding the Red Sox or anyone else in need of a closer.
He didn't do a bad job trading Seo when his value was at its peak.
He also traded Choate for John Patterson and got Livan Hernandez for Jim Brower and Matt Blank.
But, Melky hasn't really shown power at any level (other than sort-of in 120 AAA at-bats in 2006). And he hits a ton of GB, which will inhibit power going forward regardless of his age.
To me, there's a good chance what you see with him is largely what you get...he might well be a .300 hitter who'll put up a good OBP but with mediocre power and (thus far) a pretty marginal glove. And the Yankees likely know this, which is why they are marketing him now. That's a guy who doesn't start on a contender but has value to a non-contender while cost-controlled. But no more, unless he develops power or a plus glove somehow.
The Pirates are fools if they don't get someone with a good bit more upside than Melky for Gonzalez, and a bunch of contenders (including the Red Sox, for one) are fools if they let it happen. Then again, the Pirates ARE fools, so maybe they'll bite.
Thanks - I just found my new handle. It's BTF irony at its max.
That's generally how I see it. Melky is a useful player, but unfortunately, both scouts, and the numbers, seem somewhat skeptical of him developing enough power to be a good corner outfielder.
I'd be shooting for someone like Chris Garcia if I were the Pirates. A nice high upside arm, but enough of a longshot that the Yankees would be willing to part with him.
Garcia and who else? Gonzalez is already a nice high upside arm. How does this help the 'Rats.
If I was a Pirates fan, I would tempted to despise the nickname "Rats," but it's got an Oakland-Raiders-fan kind of panache. I'd support the Devil Rays changing their name to Rats.
It sucks too admit it, but Kevin Thompson can do Melky’s job next season, and Melky can bring us back value.
I think Melky/Garcia would get it done. These are the decisions G.M.'s get paid for.
By the way, if this does go down, I can’t wait for Mike and the Dog to ponder the merits of Mike Gonzalez in a big spot, followed by me screaming shut the #### up before clicking the radio off.
But if they chase upper-tier talent right now, they should get a lot of requests for Cano, Hughes, or Tabata and not a great deal of interest in the things they actually want to move.
Melky wouldn't be the worst return, but considering that they could have gotten LaRoche, that's quite a step down.
I think Gonzalez is one of the elite relievers in the game, they should be able to snag more than Cabrera for him.
On second thought, please trade Gonzalez for Cabrera. The Mets can't afford you screwing up a trade with the Braves.
He fits well in their ballpark. They shouldn't, but Littlefield's an idiot, so he might offer one of the young starters with Gonzo for LaRoche.
I want Robby Cano back for Mike Gonzalez. The Yankees are stupid if they do this, but the Pirates DO NOT have to trade Gonzo; they have him under control through 2009 (if I'm not mistaken). If it's Boston, the Bucs should ask for Pedroia. High prices, but it's the only way to stop Cashman, Eptein, et al from calling and demanding your best players for garbage in return. That kind of bluster along with occaisonal shrewd trades are what makes GM's effective.
You have a curious interpretation of 'effective'.
It's true that in the present circumstance there's no trading deadline to worry about, but Littlefield has a well-earned reputation for never doing anything until he absolutely has to, at which point he latches onto the stupidest trade offer still available. (The Braves were probably taking advantage of this reputation when they pulled out of the LaRoche deal, claiming Littlefield took too long to decide if LaRoche-for-Gonzalez was fair.) Asking for Pedroia or something is one thing, and that seems fine; refusing to do anything unless you get Pedroia is another, and that's exactly what Littlefield would do.
I propose a prediction thread, to predict who Mike Gonzalez eventually gets traded for. It should be a player who superficially appears to fill a need, but is actually too old to be a prospect while not having established himself as a good major-leaguer despite several opportunities. It will also be a player who isn't under contract very far into the future, making the trade completely pointless unless Littlefield's goal is to spend slightly more money in the short term. It also helps if they get back a player who is a cheaper and less good version of the player they traded away, thus defeating the purpose of "trading from your strength".
I say they trade Gonzalez and a prospect who later becomes an All-Star, and get Chris Burke, Dave Borkowski and a prospect who then gets lost in the Rule 5 draft.
Damon played the whole year with nagging injuries, and of course Matsui and Abreu are a year older and could benefit plenty from more days off. Torre loves the idea of a good 4th OFer that can get 300-400 PA, and I can't think of a better one in the majors save Wily Mo.
I'm torn on this. I think Gonzalez has the ability to be a pretty dominant closer, but his control looks piss poor and the most innings he's ever thrown is 54.
I love Melky, but he seems to me like the type of guy that's only really valuable when he's cheap. I don't see his body type or handsy swing ever leading to much power, and he doesn't have the range for CF either. To me he looks a lot like Coco Crisp, without quite as much power and with a much stronger arm. Do you trade that for Gonzalez when Melky still has 2 years at the minimum and at least 3-4 years of being cheap? I really don't know the answer to that.
Gonzalez for Abe Alvarez, Eric Hinske and cash? That seems like a Littlefield trade. The Pirates absolutely must receive another mediocre pitcher, because with Gonzalez gone they'd only have about 47 relievers on the 40 man roster, and that's just unacceptable. They need hitting, too, but who the hitter is or what position he plays is much less important than whether or not he's "major league ready."
As for the LaRoche/Gonzalez deal crumbling, Atlanta played Pittsburgh to get Bavasi to panic and deal Soriano. Once that was done, Atlanta backed-off.
Fake Teams
This reminds me alot about Cano and Wang last year. There was a good chance that neither was as good as they showed two years ago, but for the Yanks, right now, they need to find any quality cheap option they can right now and I think the risk of Melky collapsing in the next two years is well worth gambling on him becoming a .310/.400/.440 player in 3-4 years, which really isn't much worse then the player Abreu is right now.
He is very talented, but a little excitable, something you want to avoid in a late-inning relief guy. I like the stone-faced closers, like Rivera and Hoffman. And except for 2004 when MG had the awesome 6/55 BB/K numbers, he has had control issues. I suspect they see Capps as the next CL, with Torres doing it to start 2007.
That said, I don't think I would trade Gonzalez for Melky Cabrera+. I think Littlefield should wait. Gonzalez might be worth keeping on his own merits, even for the Pirates--cheap lefties who can throw really hard are not "fungible" and if Littlefield does want to move him, I think he could get more in the heat of the summer.
And, I don't think this is a great idea for the Yankees, either. At SOME point, the age of the core is going to start hurting them more than it has so far. Granted, Jeter, Rodriguez and Damon are all multidimensional guys with good health records and some athleticism, so it was to be expected they would age well. But I think a dropoff/age-related injury from someone among Giambi/Abreu/Posada/Matsui is very likely, so I think Cashman would be better served to kepp Cabrera and try to help the Yankee bullpen in other ways.
The Red Sox, as others said, would be likely to give up more for MG and if the Red Sox come to him about Gonzalez, Littlefield should be very demanding about it, so unless Littlefield caves a bit, I think Gonzalez will be hard to move.
This reminds me a bit of the Red Sox fan who posts here going to USS Mariner last winter to tell the Mariners' fans the Mariners were "beggars" because they went 69-93 and should take Bronson Arroyo for whatever the Red Sox deemed appropriate.
The Pirates should make the deal based on what they want to get out of it. I think the Yankees' bullpen isn't good enough to help the team as currently constructed win the 2007 World Series, so they need to offer something better than Cabrera and Cox for Mike Gonzalez.
Despite all the yapping about getting a righty first baseman with a glove, I see it very likely that Giambi spends a lot of time at first, with Matsui/Damon/Abreu getting days as DH, with Melky taking whatever outfield spot is open. I figure he's more likely to start half the games this season than less than half the games.
The only person who's going to be doing Petunia around here is kevin.
I think Pedroia is going to be a pretty good ballplayer, but he seems like another tweener type guy. Littlefield takes a lot of #### for his trades, but the real problem with the Pirates has been they haven't had any Mauer/Morneau type-scores in the draft. This is part of why I would be reluctant to move Gonzalez unless I got something really good in return--I just don't see what they could realistically get for him, particularly in the off-season, as being able to really help them. I think they should move him when someone might overpay, seeing him as the mssing piece.
Sure, but if the Pirates can get a good young everyday player or a good young starting pitcher for Gonzalez they should pull the trigger. A stud closer isn't that valuable in of itself, it's more valuable for a team that's in a pennant race and need those marginal few wins. The Pirates would be better off building a Bay/Sanchez/3rd-young-player core and upgrading the bullpen when that stage is reached. Again, how much Littlefield can bring back for trading Gonzalez will be a good measure of his trading acumen.
Yeah, but with Gonzalez' health and control record, doing that is questionable. Basically, I think they are in a weak negotiating poistion WRT MG now, so they should wait.
A stud closer isn't that valuable in of itself, it's more valuable for a team that's in a pennant race and need those marginal few wins.
Right. And no one is in a pennant race in December. And, since the "Pirates suck anyway" , what's the rush?
Whatever. Cashman's track record in trading for relief help hasn't exactly been sterling. The Pirates can reap whatever bounty they can get from the Red Sox for Gonzalez. I think the Yankees can and should plug in both Cabrera and Cox into their roster at certain points this coming year and get good production. Somehow, I'm not seeing Mike Gonzalez as the difference maker for the Yankees this post-season. One major concern for the Yankees bullpen can be alleviated if their starter can stay healthy and give them more than five innings per outing. I think buying a Barry Zito would be just as effective in fixing the bullpen and it wouldn't cost them any young and cheap players. Thereby, leaving Cabrera as a possible trading chit come the regular season.
This was a semi-parody post in response to #37.
Here is what I said from the NYY perspective, in #43:
And, I don't think this is a great idea for the Yankees, either. At SOME point, the age of the core is going to start hurting them more than it has so far. Granted, Jeter, Rodriguez and Damon are all multidimensional guys with good health records and some athleticism, so it was to be expected they would age well. But I think a dropoff/age-related injury from someone among Giambi/Abreu/Posada/Matsui is very likely, so I think Cashman would be better served to kepp Cabrera and try to help the Yankee bullpen in other ways.
I think Mahnken's 47 sums it up well.
Right--it is pretty hard to see that in Decemberm unless it is something obvious.
Yeah, and although I am biased, it is hard for me to picture Giles not signing with Padres unless someone else makes him a total blowout offer.
I also think that a lot of the skepticism about Gonzo as a closer is unwarranted. He may LOOK excitable out there, but he was 24-for-24 on save opportunities last year (and when you're closing for the Pirates, you don't have too many three-run leads to work with). He also hasn't given up a home run since the first week of May (and only gave up one the year before, as well).
In fairness, they both came in the same game, when he was doing mopup work in a game where the Pirates were already down 7-2.
Yeah, seems plausible. On a more practical level, I think the fact that he brings these qualities as a player to the table they have not had makes him more valuable to the Yankees, in Dec 2006, than he would be to the Pirates. That's part of why I don't see this trade as a hot idea for either team right now. Cashman should explore other bullpen options that do not involve parting with Cabrera, and I basically agree with Vlad about Gonzalez, although I am not quite as high on MG as Vlad seems to be.
For one, while Damon/Matsui/Abreu have been durable horses, it's just never a great idea to bet that 3 30+ year old guys will stay healthy for a full season, (or any 3 guys really) and anyone who thinks Bernie Williams would be a acceptable 4th OF next year is kidding themselfs.
I also agree with Larry that it seems farily likely that we need up with teh same 1B arrangement as this year again, having Giambi spliting plenty of time there with Phillips or Phelps. it's not optimal, but neither is signing a Shea Hillenbrand like player. and if i have to just pick one guy to throw into the lineup i would rather have Melky than Phillips/Phelps/Bernie any day from now to infinity.
Also, Melky's glove is a interesting debate, Zone ratings had him as pretty crap, but BP had him as above average, while Pinto's PMR and Bill James both had him as super good. interesting results, personal observation seems to be that his raw tools are exellent but he still occasionally take bad routs to balls, of course there's a much better chance that improves with time than the chances of Damon remembering how to throw the ball again or Matsui remembering how to run.
Gonzalez have some questions, i find him very Kyle Farnsworth like in some regards, he walks the park, and at least last year he was flyball prone, consistently surpressing SLG and HR from a pitcher with high WHIP and a lot of FBs doesn't sound like a skill.
I think he is pretty good, but not a true elite closer.
And I also agree that this is probably Littlefield overplaying his hands again and will probably end up getting a pretty crap return.
To be polite, I don't see it. To be less polite, MGonzalez is about as close to Kyle Farnsworth as I am. The only similarity they have is the propensity to walk guys. Farnsworth is much more hittable and is homer-prone - particularly at the most critical situations. MGonzalez has proven in 3 years that he's one of the toughest relievers to hit.
Frankly, I think MGonzalez is the most valuable piece in that 3-way trade. The trade may make sense for the Pirates only in that they should get everyday players first before retaining their specialists. But, if the Yanks and Braves are having cold feet, I'd welcome Gonzalez to the Mets with open arms. I think he's one of the best relievers in the game.
Plus, if Gonzalez's "unhittableness" is real and not chance, they've got themselves a bonafide Rivera heir in waiting.
It is.
they've got themselves a bonafide Rivera heir in waiting.
They don't. He walks too many to be that good. If you just mean he could be the next closer, well sure. But I think Rivera probably has 2 good years left, maybe 3, so I don't think replacing him is somnething the Yankees should be prioritizing. Gonzalez would be a big deal in the 7th and the 8th innings, not the 9th.
For 2007, though, assuming he is healthy, if I were the Yankees I would rather have Gonzalez than Adam LaRoche.
Yeah, by accident, after the Padres refused to include Sean Burroughs or Xavier Nady.
Cabrera is a good return if your scouts tell you he can play CF, or he projects to add enough power to get to 25 HR a year. I don't think he has enough playing time yet to be able to base things heavily on his stats at any level.
Laroche would also be a good return, but that puts the Pirates in a situation where they're trying to win in 2007-2009 (at which point Bay and Laroche would be free agents). The only way that is going to be possible is if they have another series of moves including some significant free agent signings. Realistically, I think the Pirates need to be planning longer term, but I doubt that is what Littlefield is thinking.
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