Just because the White Sox have never had a .538 W-L% season…is no reason to hold that against them.
This year they’ve predicted the White Sox to win 77 games. This should be great news for White Sox fans because Baseball Prospectus has consistently predicted the Sox to be worse than they eventually end up.
...What is it about the White Sox’s rosters and farm system that Baseball Prospectus doesn’t like?
To answer that question, I decided to do research on who writes these inaccuracies year after year. What I found shocked and disturbed me.
It’s Nate Silver.
My whole world of reality collapsed at that moment.
How could it be the guy I religiously read for pinpoint accuracy in politics? How could it be that Silver is an accuracy genius in politics, but yet when it comes to the White Sox he transforms into the accuracy of a Republican pollster?
After composing myself, I discovered a possible reason. Silver lived in Chicago for many years near Wrigleyville and is rumored to be a Cubs fan.
Maybe being a Cubs fan is a weighted bias even Silver’s methodology can’t overcome.
Repoz
Posted: February 18, 2013 at 08:10 AM |
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1. Hack Wilson Posted: February 18, 2013 at 10:16 AM (#4371257)But apart from that, yeah, totally, Cubs Fan Nate Silver's PECOTA system is totally biased against the 2013 White Sox.
Egad. This is the analysis of a "business news producer"? Is that what they call the guy who gets the donuts?
Did they outperform pythag?
If not that, is PECOTA under projecting the hitters? The pitchers?
Once you know that, any specific player types?
His departure also coincided with PECOTA going from best projection system available to worst.
Actually, yes, almost all the time under Guillen
Ventura
2012 -3
Ozzie
2011 +4
2010 +2
2009 -1
2008 0
2007 +5
2006 +2
2005 +8
+20 wins over Pytahg from 2005-2011. Only one season under pythag, and that was just -1.
Thats actually pretty impressive. Kevin Towers/Kirk Gibson, eat your heart out.
That would seem to insinuate that I'm not very bright, sure, but I really can't figure out what this guy thinks "Nate" (or me) would get out of cooking the books to slant the numbers against the White Sox on purpose.
Do you think Vegas looks at PECOTA to inform their lines? I could see a good opportunity here for you.
So he wanted to get back at notorious homophobe Ozzie Guillen.It almost makes sense.
Yes.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/ofman_pecota_likely_wrong_about_cubs_sox_predictions
...so Silver engineered outrageously high expectations for the Marlins, leading inevitably to their fire sale and Ozzie's firing. Brilliant!
If you want to outperform your Pythagorean record, the best thing to do is to find a really crappy pitcher and put him in the game whenever you are down by a bunch of runs. That way you add to your runs against without changing any outcomes. The 2012 Blue Jays underperformed their Pythagorean record by one game. If they'd only given up 18 extra meaningless runs in blowouts then they'd have outperformed Pythagoras by one game. If John Farrell had managed to find more a bunch more mopup innings for Jesse Chavez, or had put Omar Vizquel on the mound a few times, then he would've outperformed Pythagoras and been a certifiable genius. Hopefully now that he is in to a more saber-aware organization he'll take such steps to improve the team's performance vis a vis Pythagoras.
EDIT: And Guillen's run, I think, was significant. That's not what I'm babbling about.
This explains why the Dbacks have Adam Eaton on the roster. But in typical wacky Dback style they hired the wrong Adam Eaton.
They've already drafted the wrong Ryan Zimmerman.
That would make sense, as managers do throw in the towel at some inning/run-difference point. Then the guys who need work come into the game and the star players come out.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-white-sox-and-beating-projections/
Nah. I don't think major media outlets are biased against the Cubs one bit. In fact, they'd all go sorta nuts in celebration if the Cubs ever pull it off.
They've already drafted the wrong Ryan Zimmerman.
They also barely missed with this guy
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