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Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Tony Wolters’ big hit sends Rockies to NLDS | MLB.com

So it begins. Tough time of year for me. First I have to deal with withdrawals from the end of the season. Next I have to deal with little sleep as I **try** to stay awake until the end of playoff games. On the bright side, I get to play around with the end of season data to scout players for next year’s sim and fantasy leagues. TINO!!

Jim Furtado Posted: October 03, 2018 at 08:28 AM | 56 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs, rockies, wild card

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   1. McCoy Posted: October 03, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5759175)
This makes my October planning much easier.
   2. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:11 AM (#5759192)
Always nice to see bad things happen to Joe Maddon.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:14 AM (#5759195)
So, what's everyone's rooting hierarchy right now?

I think I'm at 1. Yankees, 2. Indians, 3. Brewers, 4. A's, 5. Rockies, 6. Astros, 7.-9. Earth gets destroyed by a meteor.
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5759209)
For me, it's:

A's
Brewers
Indians
Dodgers
Yankees (only that high because it'd be nice for Cutch to get a ring)
Rockies
Astros
   5. BDC Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:33 AM (#5759221)
Really leaves only the Astros that I positively like. Mostly neutral on the rest, though I would rather the Brewers/Rockies winner take the NL than the Braves/Dodgers. This probably ensures a Dodgers/Yankees World Series :)
   6. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:34 AM (#5759222)
The MLB Network guys are criticizing Maddon for taking out Rizzo for the pinch runner (Gore) last night. And at first I figured it’s just “results-oriented thinking” ya know cuz Gore wound up having to bat in the 11th and 13th innings. But the analyst had an interesting take:

The Rockies reliever (Ottavino) on the mound after Rizzo got on is basically the worst in baseball at holding on runners. Like, by his traditional numbers (runners stole 24 bases in 27 attempts against him—24 steals is ABSURD for a reliever!) and then the advanced analytics showed why (his time to home plate was like 1.5 times slower than average.) And we kinda saw that when Gore stole second without a throw.

The analyst’s take—and he posted it at the time—was that any reasonably athletic guy can steal off Ottavino, and since Rizzo is reasonably athletic (he’s stolen 16 bases over the last 2 years), they should have just had him try to steal second. Using Gore only boosts your chances of a steal from like 98% to 100%, and comes at the cost of removing one of your best hitters from the game.)

I thought it was interesting.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:38 AM (#5759226)
I thought it was interesting.

Definitely interesting. Where do you get "time to home" stats for pitchers?
   8. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5759228)
1. Indians
2. Brewers
3. A's
4. Rockies
5. Astros
6. Meteor
7. Dodgers
8. Braves
9. Zombie Apocalypse
8972578987253789. Yankees or Red Sox. They're the same thing.
   9. McCoy Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:46 AM (#5759238)
I think the two issues with that view of Gore/Rizzo is that it doesn't factor in what happens once Rizzo is on second. I also don't know if Rizzo would be a 98% for stealing second base. Perhaps he's a 66% chance and perhaps instead of Baez letting the pitch go by so Gore could advance he protects Rizzo by swining and fouling it off. Perhaps he does it a few times and Rizzo never gets the chance to steal second by the time Baez hits his double (and perhaps he never hits the double) and it is Rizzo on third and Baez on second with no runs in. Say he does steal second and Baez doubles. What is the chance that Rizzo makes it home safely? 66%? 90% I don't know but with Gore it was 100% I can't say the same with Rizzo. Perhaps I can do something with the data on BRef.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5759243)
Revised answer, since I forgot about the Braves and Red Sox:

A's
Brewers
Indians
Dodgers
Yankees (only that high because it'd be nice for Cutch to get a ring)
Braves
Red Sox
Rockies
Astros
   11. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5759245)
Having Wolters and Parra on the roster all year was enormously frustrating, so it was nice that they came through last night. Maybe Ian Desmond and Bryan Shaw will make a positive contribution at some point.
   12. Batman Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5759258)
I don't care about any of the teams either way, but I like seeing postseason games at Fenway. I'm just rooting for a lot of games like yesterday's except some of them can be 15-14 instead of 2-1.
   13. BDC Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:58 AM (#5759260)
I did predict in the other thread that the best games would be going on long after I fell asleep, and yesterday was no exception: I didn't make it past the Cubs tying it in the eighth inning.
   14. PreservedFish Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:00 AM (#5759263)
[teams I'd be happy for]

A's
Indians
Brewers
Dodgers
Astros

[meh]

Red Sox
Rockies

[actually rooting against]

Braves
Yankees
   15. PreservedFish Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5759268)
Gore/Rizzo: I remember Bill James took a very hard line on questions of this sort, strongly in favor of leaving in the slugger. David Ortiz was the guy he was talking about, and the simple argument was "you're gonna want your best hitter later."
   16. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5759269)
The Rockies executed a lesser version of the same strategy, bringing in Gerardo Parra for defense with a one-run lead in the 7th. But I think we're all happy with the way that turned out.
   17. , Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5759276)
Sure, you always want your best hitter later. But that was a pretty specific situation: supremely great and fast baserunner in a situation where you need one run or you die.

The Cubs had loads of chances to score additional runs without Rizzo and failed. Having Rizzo later guarantees nothing at the cost of a much reduced chance to score the single run you must have to keep playing.
   18. McCoy Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5759281)
If Rizzo wanted to stay in he should have done better than to hit a first pitch weakly into a double play with a runner in scoring position in the sixth. Just saying.
   19. puck Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5759285)
Having Wolters and Parra on the roster all year was enormously frustrating, so it was nice that they came through last night. Maybe Ian Desmond and Bryan Shaw will make a positive contribution at some point.


Is Shaw doing laundry? I noticed he wasn't even on the roster for last night. But Musgrave and Johnson were.

If you play Desmond every game, sooner or later he'll have to do something.

Did Black carry the 3 catchers just for the double-switching? It's not like he was pinch-hitting for them. I wonder if they'll have 3 catchers NLDS.

Black said Senzatela is the likely game 1 starter. I wonder if Gray will get a start? Or will Anderson start game 2 instead?
   20. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5759299)
Brewers
A's
Rockies
Indians
Braves
Dodgers

Astros, I guess

Apocalypse

Red Sox (mostly because two guys I know are COMPLETELY insufferable. Team is a meh)

Watch my kids get their skin flayed off

Yankees

   21. BDC Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:30 AM (#5759303)
People really don't like the New York Yankees.
   22. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5759305)
Is Shaw doing laundry? I noticed he wasn't even on the roster for last night. But Musgrave and Johnson were.

Did Black carry the 3 catchers just for the double-switching? It's not like he was pinch-hitting for them. I wonder if they'll have 3 catchers NLDS.


I didn't see the roster from last night, but I hope they left Marquez and Anderson off of it, since the chance of them appearing was vanishingly small. If they did, that made room for the three catchers. I don't see any reason to carry three catchers if one of them is Butera. The other two guys do everything Butera does: Ianetta provides the veteran leadership, Wolters provides the good defense, Wolters provides the lack of hitting ability. If they need someone to commit catcher's interference, they can activate Tom Murphy.
   23. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5759310)
People really don't like the New York Yankees.

Most people have a soul and are decent human beings.

As for the rest....
   24. Scott Ross Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5759312)
as I **try** to stay awake until the end of playoff games


Come root for the Red Sox by my side here in London.
   25. Astroenteritis Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5759314)
Rooting order, this is not easy, but...
1. Astros (of course)
2. A's
3. Indians
4. Rockies
5. Brewers
6. Braves
T7. Dodgers
T7. Red Sox
T7. Yankees
   26. Man o' Schwar Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5759321)
These Cubs never really felt like they were going to have a big postseason run in them. Wildly inconsistent all year on offense, and the bullpen was going to be a question mark without Morrow and Strop being healthy. All in all, they had the best record (tied) in the NL despite getting basically nothing out of Darvish, losing Bryant and Morrow for big chunks of the season, having Chatwood be useless, and seeing offensive struggles from a lot of guys (not just Heyward, but Happ, Contreras, Russell, Rizzo in the first half, and Schwarber to an extent). I'm not sure what the answer is, but this isn't a tear it up situation. They do need to do something about the hitting though - a lot of regression from young hitters all at once is not a great sign. Aside from Baez, pretty much everyone was worse than they were last year (I guess Schwarber as well, but he was so terrible last year he had nowhere to go but up).

At least there are a lot of young and interesting teams in the playoffs this year. Brewers, Rockies, Astros, A's, Braves would all be fun. Indians would be OK. I'd be fine getting rid of Boston, NYY, and the Dodgers (so of course this is going to be Yankees/Dodgers WS).
   27. spycake Posted: October 03, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5759329)
People really don't like the New York Yankees.

Most people have a soul and are decent human beings.

As for the rest....


I enjoyed this dramatization of that gif:

https://www.progressiveboink.com/2012/5/31/2995814/yankeesfans-gif-animated-yankee-enthusiasts-story
   28. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: October 03, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5759336)
I'm a Red Sox fan, but how could anybody not want to see Cleveland, Colorado, or Milwaukee win the World Series? When Boston won the whole thing in 2004, the positive effect it had on so many of us in the fan base was palpable. It remains one of the best memories of my life, and I would love to see every fan base get to feel that joy at least once.

Those Brewers fans are pretty awesome, and in the history of Milwaukee baseball, they've been to the WS three times: 1957 (won a seven-game series), and 1958 and 1982, when they lost a seven-game series. It's been 36 years since they went to a WS, and 61 years since they won a WS. They've lost a franchise to Atlanta, gained one from Seattle, switched leagues, and probably been one of the most demographically-precarious markets of the last 30+ years. If Bud Selig hadn't been the owner, they probably would've left town long before now...

Of course, Cleveland winning would be awesome for obvious reasons, but LeBron bringing home a ring takes a little of the edge off of the urgency...
   29. PreservedFish Posted: October 03, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5759339)
I don't like Colorado's uniforms.
   30. rconn23 Posted: October 03, 2018 at 12:35 PM (#5759354)
"People really don't like the New York Yankees."

Well, as far as the players on the roster - with the obvious exception of Chapman - this is easily the most likable Yankees roster I've seen in my lifetime.
   31. GuyM Posted: October 03, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5759384)
Gore/Rizzo: Seems like the real problem here is that the Cubs didn't have a good roster for this game. Only 14 position players (I think), which is really sub-optimal, so they were forced to let Gore bat twice. Nothing wrong with replacing Rizzo in that situation, but you should have an MLB hitter available to replace him the next time his spot in the lineup comes up.
   32. Buck Coats Posted: October 03, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5759391)
As I said in the other thread, they did - they had Schwarber. But instead of double-switching Schwarber in, they let him PH for the pitcher and then leave the game.
   33. vortex of dissipation Posted: October 03, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5759398)
When the Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee, I swore I would never root for the Brewers, and I remember rooting for the Cardinals in the 1982 World Series. But this postseason, I guess time heals old wounds, because I'm rooting for the Brewers...
   34. GuyM Posted: October 03, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5759419)
As I said in the other thread, they did - they had Schwarber. But instead of double-switching Schwarber in, they let him PH for the pitcher and then leave the game.

That's fine. But it still seems the Cubs needed at least one more competent hitter. You don't need 11 pitchers for one game, especially if you are going to carry a pinch runner specialist, have several players with big platoon splits, and have to keep a backup catcher on the bench.
   35. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: October 03, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5759427)
Rooting order:

1. Indians - my dad was born and raised in Cleveland. He was 3 in 1948. Would love for him to be able to see his team win the WS.
2. Brewers - one of my best friends was born and raised in Milwaukee.

big gap

3. Rockies - all for teams that have never won to get a Championship
4. Athletics - they have to win an elimination game at some point, don't they?
5. Astros - i feel like they have won it all recently. let someone else have time at the top.
6. Braves - meh

the above 4 teams could really be 3a-3d.

7. Red Sox - meh. 3 wins in the last 15 years is enough, i think
8. Dodgers - Still dislike from their days in the NL West with the Reds
9. Yankees - they have won enough to last about a millennium
   36. salvomania Posted: October 03, 2018 at 02:32 PM (#5759485)
All in all, they had the best record (tied) in the NL

No, they were tied until the last regular-season game, which they lost. Game 163 counts as a regular-season contest.
   37. Perry Posted: October 03, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5759553)
I don't like Colorado's uniforms.


Their basic home white pins and road grays are fine, as are the caps. I don't like baseball teams wearing softball-style colored jerseys, but at least their purple is unique. The black vests, which fortunately they almost never wear any more, need to go far away and never come back.
   38. Perry Posted: October 03, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5759581)
1. Rockies -- of course
2. Indians -- I'm a native Ohioan, my brother's a fan, 1948 is too long ago, and 1997/2016 were so painful their fans really deserve one.

big gap

3. A's -- the biggest underdog left other than the Rox
4. Brewers -- no strong feelings either way, really

gap to teams I actually dislike

5. Dodgers
6. Astros -- I do like Altuve
7. Braves -- nothing against the team themselves, but I wouldn't mind if the the whole SE US disappeared
8. Red Sox -- like a lot of people, I was kind of fond of them for a long time, but not since 2004. Love watching games from Fenway though.

gap

9. Yankees
   39. JAHV Posted: October 03, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5759597)
Generally like:
1. Dodgers - I'm an Angels fan but grew up watching the Dodgers and still have fond memories of their 1988 run. I like Kershaw and would love to see him get some redemption.
2. Rockies - They haven't won one and I like Bud Black and Nolan Arenado. Plus games in Coors Field are always fun.
3. Brewers - I like rooting for teams that haven't won, and they have some fun players.
4. Indians - Again, a team that hasn't won in a while and Kluber is kind of an AL version of Kershaw.

Don't care:
5. Braves - Meh. I know Acuna is awesome, but otherwise I just don't care. As long as it's been, there's still some leftover Braves fatigue from the Cox era.

I could hold my nose:
6. Astros - They won last year, so I'm generally against them winning. But I LOVE Altuve. So, I guess I could stomach them winning another one.

Rooting for a meteor to hit tonight:
7. Yankees - I hate them.
8. A's - But not as much as I hate the A's. As an Angels fan, these guys with their scrappy, scraggly, low-payroll, Moneyball-themed crap...ugh. No thanks.

9. The postseason is canceled and baseball ceases to be a sport when aliens invade the planet and force us to watch nothing but soccer for the next millenium.

10. Red Sox

(Edited because I forgot the Astros)
   40. Spahn Insane Posted: October 03, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5759609)
Their basic home white pins and road grays are fine, as are the caps. I don't like baseball teams wearing softball-style colored jerseys, but at least their purple is unique. The black vests, which fortunately they almost never wear any more, need to go far away and never come back.

Still better than those godawful sharkskin-and-teal-and-some-random-reddish-thing unis the D'Backs sometimes wear. Man, those are hideous.
   41. Rally Posted: October 03, 2018 at 04:44 PM (#5759637)
1. Indians
2. Brewers
3. Rockies
4. Yankees
5. Braves
6. Astros
7. A's
8. Dodgers
9. Red Sox
   42. Rally Posted: October 03, 2018 at 04:48 PM (#5759644)
3. Brewers - I like rooting for teams that haven't won, and they have some fun players.


Agree on the Brewers, I've got them #2, so 2 high ratings coming from Angels fans. That tells me I am completely over 1982. But not 1986. And I don't think it's possible that the Red Sox will rank high on my list 4 years from now.
   43. McCoy Posted: October 03, 2018 at 05:00 PM (#5759649)
That's fine. But it still seems the Cubs needed at least one more competent hitter. You don't need 11 pitchers for one game, especially if you are going to carry a pinch runner specialist, have several players with big platoon splits, and have to keep a backup catcher on the bench.

Russell wasn't playing and indeed they just announced a 40 game suspension for him so that pretty much left I think Bobby Wilson as the only other possible positional player they could have used.
   44. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 03, 2018 at 05:04 PM (#5759651)
A's
Braves
Indians
Dodgers
Brewers
Rockies
Astros
Meteor
Yankees
Red Sox
   45. McCoy Posted: October 03, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5759656)
wrong thread
   46. DCA Posted: October 03, 2018 at 05:10 PM (#5759659)
A's - hometown team
Astros
Indians
Braves - got on the bandwagon in May 1991; beating the Giants in 1993 sealed it
Brewers
Dodgers
Red Sox - outside of genuine rooting interests, I generally prefer for quality to be rewarded, but I really don't like Bos/NYY
Yankees - don't like wild cards winning, unless Oakland of course
Rockies - undeserving and unlikable
   47. , Posted: October 03, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5759672)
I'm a Braves fan, so Braves.

I have a lot of cousins who are lifelong Astros fans. They had theirs, but I like them, and I'll be eternally grateful for the Astros winning a month before my uncle passed. He knew he didn't have long and was desperate (too strong a word) to last through the postseason. I have a great picture of them all celebrating. So, they'll be my AL team for a long time to come.

I don't actually like the Red Sox that much, but they clearly had the best season in MLB. So if they win it won't tear me up.

I have a lot of friends from Cleveland, so I wouldn't be broken-hearted to see them win.

All that means is that, probably, the Yankees will win the AL pennant.

I don't actually hate any of this year's entries and there could be some nice stories out of some teams.
   48. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 03, 2018 at 05:32 PM (#5759687)
Oh let’s see. I haven’t really thought about it much—I just want close games and series. But

1. Brewers (they have Cain and Moustakas)
2. Athletics (win one for Beane!)
Gap
3. Red Sox (I like it when the best team wins it all)
4. Dodgers (I like Kershaw a lot, plus all their weird guys who became stars out of nowhere like Muncy, Turner, Taylor, Stripling, etc)
5. Braves (like all the young guys, hate their evil ownership)
6. Indians (eh. They’re fine. But they always beat up on the Royals so it don’t feel right)
7. Rockies (I occasionally forget they’re a team)
Gap
8. Yankees (cuz they’re the Yankees)
9. Astros (cuz they won it last year and they traded for Osuna)
   49. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 03, 2018 at 05:33 PM (#5759688)
1. Indians
2. Brewers
3. Rockies

Division rivals
4. A's
5. Astros

Meh
6. Braves

Local rival
7. Dodgers

I won't root for the Sox or Yanks under any circumstances.
   50. Perry Posted: October 03, 2018 at 05:57 PM (#5759705)
Rockies - undeserving and unlikable


Um, what? Undeserving I get in some sense, they have the Pythag of a .500 team although at the end of the day your record is your record. But how are they unlikable? Maybe I'm blinded by fandom, but I genuinely don't get it.
   51. puck Posted: October 03, 2018 at 06:14 PM (#5759716)
Perry, Ian Desmond played 160 games! So unlikable!
   52. Perry Posted: October 03, 2018 at 06:23 PM (#5759723)
Perry, Ian Desmond played 160 games! So unlikable!


That has to be it.
   53. Walt Davis Posted: October 03, 2018 at 07:23 PM (#5759772)
Rooting interests (I suspect I'll barely be paying attention):

1. A's
2. Indians
3. A's
4. Indians
5. A's
6. Indians
7. Brewers
8. Red Sox
9. Astros
10. Trump cancels the postseason via the Presidential Alert System in a fit of pique over Kavanaugh's nomination failing
11. Braves
   54. Astroenteritis Posted: October 03, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5759954)
I don't like Colorado's uniforms.


Ha, purple is my favorite color, so if I was rooting based on uniform it would be all Colorado!
   55. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 04, 2018 at 12:58 AM (#5759964)
1. Brewers
2. Indians
3. Dodgers
4. can't imagine giving a ####
   56. PreservedFish Posted: October 04, 2018 at 07:11 AM (#5759989)
I like purple, and I think the Rockies chose a handsome shade of purple, but the only one of their uniforms that I like are the home ones that are almost all purple. Not into the pinstripes, I think the purple and the away gray clash, and the black vests are repugnant.

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