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1. andrewberg Posted: September 29, 2010 at 06:04 PM (#3651339)I find it really annoying when A's fans say things like this. Of course it would help my argument if Hunter, Jackson, Henderson and Giambi hadn't ended up with the Yankees, and Foulke, Damon and Scutaro with the Red Sox.
But we got to keep Chavvy and Mitchell Paige.
(checks BB-ref)
Yes, except for Lance Berkman. And possibly Jose Cruz Jr. although his career was not what one would hope for from the 3rd overall pick.
If you had pick #1 and a genie guaranteed you the nth best player in the draft, what's the highest n for which you'd make the deal?
Or convert Rendon into a low-ceiling minor league reliever.
That was the famous Moneyball draft. The Pirates were applauded for taking a college player while other teams wasted their first round picks on high schoolers like Scott Kazmir, B.J. Upton and Prince "too fat for the A's" Fielder.
I looked at #1s the other day in the dugout. Prior to Griffey, MLB did a terrible job (or had terrible luck) with #1 picks. From 1965 to 1986, the most WAR by a #1 was Strawberry at 43; no pitcher topped 25 WAR (Moore, Belcher and Bannister basically all tied). Over that time period, the 22 picks amassed only 300 WAR (give or take some rounding) or less than 14 per. 8 of the 22 delivered essentially no value.
From 1987 to 2007 (Price, the last one with a fair shot at reasonable MLB time), those 21 picks have amassed about 436 WAR and still counting. If you look from 87 to 98 (Burrell), you've got the set who have pretty much completed compiling WAR (except for AROD) and those 12 picks compiled 376 WAR. Of course most of that is Griffey, Chipper and AROD.
So you might expect 30 WAR from a #1 these days which, I'd guess, has to be close to the typical 2nd or 3rd best career in a draft. But, the post-98 bunch is probably not as impressive. Mauer is the true stud and Adrian Gonzalez could have an HoF career. The best of the rest are Hamilton (who got lost on the way), J Upton (should be solid but not on a star track yet), Price, Strasburg and maybe Harper. Hochevar, Bush and Bullington are pretty much already complete busts and Delmon Young ain't looking so good (neg WAR career, only .5 this year due to apparently horrible defense ... YMMV).
Note, even if you swap out Bullington, Bush and Hochevar as signability picks, things look a lot better but not necessarily awesome. The #2s behind those guys are BJ Upton (8.8 WAR; Greinke at #6 with 20 would be a stretch); Verlander (14.4); and Greg Reynolds (who? -1.4 WAR; Longoria at #3). So Upton, Verlander, Longoria is plausible and Upton should have a decent career and the latter two are in the Gonzalez camp where you can certainly imagine an HoF career. But then you could also argue that Prior was the "true" #1 instead of Mauer.
I wouldn't be surprised if that 87-98 run goes down as historic (moreso with different endpoints) and it's impressive that they did so despite having 3 busts in those 12 picks (Anderson, Wilson, Taylor).
To get back to your question, just quickly using the 94-98 drafts, that 25ish WAR range seems to be about the 3rd best player in the first round. Assuming 1 or 2 freakish later round picks, that's probably the 4th-5th best player in the whole draft. So that's probably about the break-even point. So unless you're extremely risk-averse, you might as well gamble you're gonna get the next Griffey/Jones/AROD/Mauer unless the genie is gonna guarantee you the #2, maybe #3 player in the draft.
Note, I've made no allowance for signing bonuses, how long you keep the player, long-term costs, etc. If the genie offers me the #4 with the career WAR front-loaded at half the price of Strasburg ...
Speaking of which, another interesting thing about #1 overall is that the best pitcher so far is Andy Benes at 29.6 WAR. Through 2006 (Hochevar, pre-Price), 12 pitchers have gone #1 and 6 of them have been complete busts, including 5 of the last 6. Let's hope Price & Strasburg do better.
Ooh, it would be nice if P-I had draft/signing year as a search criteron.
Year Rnd DT FrRnd RdPck Tm Pos WAR G AB HR BA OPS G W L ERA WHIP SV Type Drafted Out of1973 1 FrRnd 3 Brewers Robin Yount SS 76.9 2856 11008 251 .285 .772 HS Taft HS (Woodland Hills CA)
1977 1 FrRnd 3 Brewers Paul Molitor SS 74.8 2683 10835 234 .306 .817 4Yr University of Minnesota (Minneapolis MN)
1986 1 FrRnd 3 Giants Matt Williams 3B 43.9 1866 7000 378 .268 .805 4Yr University of Nevada Las Vegas (Las Vegas NV)
1974 1 FrRnd 3 Phillies Lonnie Smith OF 37.2 1613 5170 98 .288 .791 HS Centennial HS (Compton CA)
1997 1 FrRnd 3 Angels Troy Glaus 3B 33.9 1535 5409 320 .254 .847 4Yr UCLA (Los Angeles CA)
1995 1 FrRnd 3 Mariners Jose Cruz OF 22.0 1388 4724 204 .247 .783 4Yr Rice University (Houston TX)
1965 1 FrRnd 3 Senators Joe Coleman RHP 20.3 279 462 0 .106 .289 484 142 135 3.70 1.33 7 HS Natick HS (Natick MA)
1990 1 FrRnd 3 Phillies Mike Lieberthal C 15.3 1212 4218 150 .274 .783 HS Westlake HS (Westlake Village CA)
1981 1 FrRnd 3 Angels Dick Schofield SS 15.0 1368 4299 56 .230 .624 HS Griffin HS (Springfield IL)
1985 1 FrRnd 3 Rangers Bobby Witt RHP 13.1 62 64 1 .141 .399 430 142 157 4.83 1.57 0 4Yr University of Oklahoma (Norman OK)
1988 1 FrRnd 3 Braves Steve Avery LHP 12.1 232 437 4 .174 .446 297 96 83 4.19 1.35 0 HS Kennedy HS (Taylor MI)
1978 1 FrRnd 3 Mets Hubie Brooks OF 10.6 1645 5974 149 .269 .717 4Yr Arizona State University (Tempe AZ)
2006 1 FrRnd 3 Devil Rays Evan Longoria 3B 10.4 430 1606 82 .283 .881 4Yr Long Beach State University (Long Beach CA)
1993 1 FrRnd 3 Angels Brian Anderson LHP 10.3 171 255 1 .137 .354 291 82 83 4.74 1.34 1 4Yr Wright State University (Dayton OH)
1972 1 FrRnd 3 Phillies Larry Christenson RHP 10.0 243 427 11 .150 .462 243 83 71 3.79 1.28 4 HS Marysville HS (Stanwood WA)
1994 1 FrRnd 3 Padres Dustin Hermanson RHP 9.9 274 322 2 .093 .278 357 73 78 4.21 1.36 56 4Yr Kent State University (Kent OH)
1996 1 FrRnd 3 Cardinals Braden Looper RHP 6.3 646 186 0 .215 .517 670 72 65 4.15 1.37 103 4Yr Wichita State University (Wichita KS)
1998 1 FrRnd 3 Cubs Corey Patterson OF 5.6 1093 3791 112 .253 .697 HS Harrison HS (Kennesaw GA)
1980 1 FrRnd 3 Braves Ken Dayley LHP 3.0 378 81 0 .210 .483 385 33 45 3.64 1.38 39 4Yr University of Portland (Portland OR)
1970 1 FrRnd 3 Expos Barry Foote C 2.4 687 2127 57 .230 .645 HS Smithfield-Selma Sr HS (Selma NC)
1967 1 FrRnd 3 Red Sox Mike Garman RHP 2.0 291 42 0 .119 .238 303 22 27 3.63 1.41 42 HS Caldwell HS (Caldwell ID)
1966 1 FrRnd 3 Astros Wayne Twitchell RHP 1.5 278 260 0 .127 .310 282 48 65 3.98 1.43 2 HS Wilson HS (Portland OR)
1976 1 FrRnd 3 Braves Ken Smith 3B 0.2 83 56 1 .268 .706 HS Youngstown East HS (Youngstown OH)
1989 1 FrRnd 3 Mariners Roger Salkeld RHP 0.1 29 32 0 .031 .092 45 10 10 5.61 1.62 0 HS Saugus HS (Saugus CA)
2000 1 FrRnd 3 Cubs Luis Montanez SS -0.1 93 251 4 .223 .579 HS Miami Coral Park HS (Miami FL)
1983 1 FrRnd 3 Rangers Jeff Kunkel SS -0.3 357 867 18 .221 .614 2 0 0 13.50 2.63 0 4Yr Rider University (Lawrenceville NJ)
1971 1 FrRnd 3 Brewers Tommy Bianco SS -0.3 18 34 0 .176 .469 HS Sewanhaka HS (Elmont NY)
2004 1 FrRnd 3 Mets Philip Humber RHP -0.3 5 1 0 .000 .000 26 2 1 5.26 1.62 0 4Yr Rice University (Houston TX)
2005 1 FrRnd 3 Mariners Jeff Clement C -0.3 129 363 14 .223 .664 4Yr University of Southern California (Los Angeles CA)
1987 1 FrRnd 3 Twins Willie Banks RHP -0.4 85 68 0 .176 .428 181 33 39 4.75 1.53 2 HS St.Anthonys HS (Jersey City NJ)
1984 1 FrRnd 3 Cubs Drew Hall LHP -1.8 87 16 0 .063 .229 125 9 12 5.21 1.43 5 4Yr Morehead State University (Morehead KY)
1991 1 FrRnd 3 Twins Dave McCarty 1B -2.3 630 1493 36 .242 .676 3 0 0 2.45 0.82 0 4Yr Stanford University (Stanford CA)
1999 1 FrRnd 3 Tigers Eric Munson C -2.6 361 1056 49 .214 .683 4Yr University of Southern California (Los Angeles CA)
1982 1 FrRnd 3 Padres Jimmy Jones RHP -3.1 131 193 2 .166 .439 153 43 39 4.46 1.39 0 HS Thomas Jefferson HS (Dallas TX)
2001 1 FrRnd 3 Devil Rays Dewon Brazelton RHP -4.0 11 6 0 .167 .500 63 8 25 6.38 1.68 0 4Yr Middle Tennessee State University (Murfreesboro TN)
1992 1 FrRnd 3 Expos B.J. Wallace(minors) LHP 4Yr Mississippi State University (Mississippi State MS)
1979 1 FrRnd 3 Blue Jays Jay Schroeder(minors) C HS Palisades HS (Pacific Palisades CA)
2002 1 FrRnd 3 Reds Christopher Gruler(minors) RHP HS Liberty Union HS (Oakley CA)
2003 1 FrRnd 3 Tigers Kyle Sleeth(minors) RHP 4Yr Wake Forest University (Winston-Salem NC)
1975 1 FrRnd 3 Tigers Les Filkins(minors) OF HS George Washington HS (Chicago IL)
1969 1 FrRnd 3 White Sox Ted Nicholson(minors) 3B HS Oak Park HS (Laurel MS)
1968 1 FrRnd 3 Astros Martin Cott(minors) C HS Hutchinson Technical HS (Buffalo NY)
2010 1 FrRnd 3 Orioles Manny Machado(minors) SS HS Brito Miami Private HS (Miami FL)
2008 1 FrRnd 3 Royals Eric Hosmer(minors) 1B HS American Heritage School (Plantation FL)
2009 1 FrRnd 3 Padres Donavan Tate(minors) CF HS Cartersville HS (Cartersville GA)
2007 1 FrRnd 3 Cubs Josh Vitters(minors) 3B HS Cypress HS (Cypress CA)
Longoria will pass him soon, but he should be able to hang on to #7 for a few more years...
(checks BB-ref)
Yes, except for Lance Berkman. And possibly Jose Cruz Jr. although his career was not what one would hope for from the 3rd overall pick.
What Rice hitters besides Berkman and Cruz have ever had the hype to best busts to begin with?
Vince Sinisi I'll give you. He was a big time guy in HS, had a monster freshman year at Rice, and got a million dollar or more bonus but hes really the only one unless I'm blanking on something. I can't think of any first round Rice hitters besides Berkman and Cruz considering that Savery was drafted as a LHP.
All of Rice's other position player prospect have been considered "good but not great" types, 2nd to 5th rounders, and they've generally been like that in the pros. Paul Janish is a MLB useful SS. Josh Rodriguez could have a career. Brian Friday is a nice SS and was in AAA this year but doesn't hit a ton. Aaron Luna is a power+walks LF who is more athletic than you think, played some 2b at Rice, has some Jonny Gomes in him. Those are all 2nd to 5th round guys, and they've all played about like that... useful guys but not stars.
I can't think of any other highly drafted hitters from Rice his decade, so how could they be overhyped busts?
And as another poster mentioned, anyone with reasonable expectations can't be disappointed by Cruz at 3. A guy who was decent and sometimes quite good MLB regular for more than a decade is a great draft pick, even if he went #1 overall.
Terrence Long in pinstripes, karmic revenge.
that was an AMAZING team - glad i got to watch them. i would have bet that chris kolkhorst would be the guy to make the majors
not paul janish, who really should have been the starting SS on the reds
and i thought fer SHER that townsend and humber would be ace pitchers in MLB by 06 at the latest.
wrong
of course, there were no pitch counts and the pitchers were rode hard and put away wet
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