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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Torii Hunter to Tigers

From the Robothal Twitter feed:

Torii to #Tigers. Two-year agreement, pending physical.

 

Gamingboy Posted: November 14, 2012 at 01:15 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: tigers, torii hunter, transactions

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Tim D Posted: November 14, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4302596)
No-brainer for the Tigers. Personality off the charts, a good RF, all-around ballplayer, will help them vs. lefties, only 2 years, they have need at the position, etc. They need to find a platoon partner for Dirks so A Garcia and N Castellanos (being groomed for the OF) can spend the year playing full time in the minors.
   2. Tripon Posted: November 14, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4302603)
Castellanos being groomed for the OF is a mistake. Just move Caberera to LF where he belongs.
   3. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 14, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4302604)

I agree. Cody Ross would be nice in that role but probably too much $$$. What other lefty mashing OF are available this winter?
   4. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 14, 2012 at 03:34 PM (#4302618)
I knew he wasn't coming back, but I'm saddened to learn that he's officially no longer an Angel. Really good player and (from the outside) seems to be even a better guy and teammate. Definitely an upgrade for Detroit, on and off the field.
   5. AROM Posted: November 14, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4302672)
I'll miss Torii. He did everything the Angels could have possibly expected and more. Not just the production, but the selfless move to right when Bourjos and then Trout were ready to take over CF.

It looks like the Angels planned on Torii, age 37 now, to be finished at the end of the contract. With trades and signings the Angels had already built the lineup and payroll for the 2013 team with no room for Torii. He surprised them by playing like a man 10 years younger than his birth certificate.

Good luck with the Tigers Torii, and if you had to leave, thank you for not signing with Texas.
   6. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: November 14, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4302698)
Torii could be as popular as Quintin Berry, with the added advantage that Hunter can, you know, actually play baseball.
   7. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 14, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4302750)
Any other "ii" players besides Larry Biitner come to mind?
   8. JJ1986 Posted: November 14, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4302759)
Any other "ii" players besides Larry Biitner come to mind?


Former Dodgers pitcher Kaz Ishii.
   9. Derb Posted: November 14, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4302773)
They need to find a platoon partner for Dirks


Why do people say that Dirks isn't an everyday player?

Last year, he triple slashed .336/.375/.515 vs righty's and .274/.354/.397 vs. lefty's.

Yeah, his slugging was real low, but everything else looks fine. Put him a little lower in the lineup against lefty's, and he'll help you out.
   10. Wilson Posted: November 14, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4302788)
Also Masato Yoshii and Keiichi Yabu.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4302794)
There are also two t's in Biittner.

Pretty obvious signing for Detroit ... now where's that FA thread, where'd I foolishly say he'd end up?
   12. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4302797)
Here it is. I had Red Sox.
   13. kthejoker Posted: November 14, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4302804)
Masato Yoshii, too.

All Double Vowel Team?

In the vein of the birthday teams, I snuck some gooduns in at positions they only played a "wee" bit.

C Bob Boone
1B Hank Greenberg
2B Hank Aaron
SS Pee Wee Reese
3B Willie Keeler
LF Goose Goslin
CF Torii
RF Harry Hooper

Bench: Magglio Ordonez, Boog Powell, Rob Deer

SP: Tim Keefe
SP: Dwight Gooden
SP: Wilbur Cooper
SP: Sam Leever
SP: Harry Brecheen

RP: Wilbur Wood

Manager: Frank Selee
Owner: Bill Veeck (just beating out Harry Frazee)
   14. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 14, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4302807)
I think Brooks Robinson beats out Wee Willie at third base.
   15. Effervesoteric Posted: November 14, 2012 at 07:00 PM (#4302916)
I remember when Hunter signed his contract very few people here expected him to be anywhere near worth the money. We were all wrong.
   16. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 14, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4302966)
How does Magglio Ordonez make the double-vowel bench? :)
   17. Shredder Posted: November 14, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4302973)
Another Angels fan wishing Torii well in Detroit.
   18. AROM Posted: November 14, 2012 at 09:00 PM (#4302983)
"How does Magglio Ordonez make the double-vowel bench? :)"

If you think of him as one word, Magglioordonez?
   19. Willie Mayspedester Posted: November 14, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4303002)
What about Boob Feller?
   20. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 14, 2012 at 10:10 PM (#4303020)
Boob Feeler goes on the list.
   21. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: November 14, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4303059)
What other lefty mashing OF are available this winter?


Jonny Gomes
   22. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 14, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4303068)
Torii is an allowable Scrabble word. It's the gate to a Shinto temple.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: November 15, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4303090)
How does Magglio Ordonez make the double-vowel bench? :)

It didn't get as much press but at the same time Pluto got downgraded from being a planet, they decided g is a vowel.

I blame Obama.
   24. shoewizard Posted: November 15, 2012 at 05:30 AM (#4303178)
Bill James projections up at FG, .271/.336/.428 and I think thats generous as they give him a .323 BABIP

Last year with a .389 BABIP Tori had a .322 BABIP on ground balls, when avg is usually around .235 or something.
His BABIP on FB was .235 when avg is usually around .140

I can easily see Tori's numbers slipping to .260/.325/410 in 2013

It's only a 2 year deal, not crazy money, but I'm betting on a pretty quick fade into the sunset for Tori....two very mediocre years and then see ya.

   25. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 15, 2012 at 09:07 AM (#4303204)

Well, his approach changed. Dave Cameron has a good piece on what to expect from Torii here.

Even if Hunter can repeat his batted ball distribution from 2012, he’s not going to get those same results. He’s not going to post a 130 wRC+ again. The Tigers shouldn’t have any illusions that they’re getting a guy capable of repeating his +5 win season. But, there’s enough left that a 100-110 wRC+ a reasonable expectation, and with his speed, defense, and durability, he should still project as an average or slightly above average player. In 2014, maybe he slides to being a bit below average, and all told, he produces +4 WAR over the next two years. At $26 million, that’s not any kind of bargain, but it’s also not a drastic overpay. It’s maybe a couple million higher than what you’d hope for, but it’s an overpay that has a chance to put wins on the board at a time when the Tigers badly need wins.


Even a .750 OPS with his defence and baserunning is a 3-4 win upgrade over what the Tigers ran out (mostly Boesch) in RF this year.
   26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 15, 2012 at 09:24 AM (#4303209)
I can easily see Tori's numbers slipping to .260/.325/410 in 2013
That would be a couple runs below league average for a corner outfielder in the current offensive environment. Add on Hunter's above average defense and baserunning, that's a perfectly solid contributor at a reasonably fair price. And that's your "I can easily see" pessimistic case.
   27. shoewizard Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:47 AM (#4305770)
Matt, it's not that pessimistic. He just put up his lowest ISO and lowest HR% since 2000. And he'd already seen a fairly significant drop in his ISO the previous two seasons as well. So 2012 was the tail end of a 3 year trend, not a fluke outlier.

Thats nearly a collapse in power. If that ISO doesn't rebound, coupled with the expected regression to his BABIP, I think what I forecasted is a median projection, neither pessimistic or optimistic.

You want pessimism, I'll give you pessimism. ;) .245/.295/.385 .680

I know 3 or 4 years weighted models are not going to return that kind of a projection. But this is the age when models start to break down, as do bodies.

This isn't a horrible signing, and if his power can rebound a bit, and his body holds up, then the Tigers might break even, or not come up too far short, like Cameron says above.
But personally I see a guy about to step off a pretty large cliff. We'll see next year if I'm right.

Hope not. Tori is a good guy.

   28. shoewizard Posted: November 19, 2012 at 02:38 AM (#4305777)
ISO Trend line Chart here

BABIP Trend Chart Here

BB/K rate chart here

FB rate drop, GB rate increase chart here

These things, one by one, or individually, don't mean all that much. But taken together are just the type of things I look for when trying to gauge if a guy is going to suddenly collapse. When the music stops on Tori's productiveness, it's very likely the Tigers are going to be left standing without a chair in the game.
   29. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: November 19, 2012 at 08:49 AM (#4305787)
I'd substitute Saduharu Oo for Greenberg at 1B.
   30. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 19, 2012 at 09:33 AM (#4305792)
johnny gomes is no more an outfielder than prince fielder is a speedo model
   31. DL from MN Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4305856)
Mike Cameron put up a good age 36 season, then faded pretty quickly. Ron Gant and Devon White were done at age 38 also.
   32. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4305861)
in his last season with the brewers mike cameron had one month where he was really good at the plate and the rest of the time he couldn't hit a good fastball to save his life. it was tough to watch
   33. RJ in TO Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4305865)
Ron Gant and Devon White were done at age 38 also.

Devon White retired at age 38, but he probably wasn't realistically done. He put up a 108 OPS+ in that final season, and went 18/3 on the basepaths. He was in a "retired, because he wanted to retire" rather than a "retired, because no one wanted him anymore" retirement.

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