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Sunday, December 30, 2012

Track the Hall of Fame vote at BBTF

While the official results of the 2013 BBWAA Hall of Fame vote won’t be announced until Jan. 9, Baseball Think Factory is thankfully going to the trouble of adding up the publicly disclosed ballots. Thus far, they’ve turned up 67 such ballots, which, based on 2012 voting totals, means that 11.5 percent of “precincts” have reported.

BBTF has just been recognized by a major news source!

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 30, 2012 at 11:35 PM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Lassus Posted: December 31, 2012 at 07:55 AM (#4335182)
Step inside, step inside!
   2. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: December 31, 2012 at 08:04 AM (#4335187)
I don't know, the last time this place got attention in the media, my handle was mocked and I was accused of being sexist. Screw the rest of the internet!
   3. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 31, 2012 at 08:23 AM (#4335195)
Soooo, brass tacks: does having a publicly tracked ballot total help or hurt Jack Morris's chances?

   4. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: December 31, 2012 at 08:33 AM (#4335203)
Soooo, brass tacks: does having a publicly tracked ballot total help or hurt Jack Morris's chances?


I think it's a non-factor. The folks who would say "oh, Jack really needs my vote" were already going that way and the folks who would say "oh, he might get in" weren't going to vote for him anyway. In political terms I think the people who would be impacted by this are the extreme wings of their "party".

I'm pretty sure that Repoz' tally for Morris has typically been considerably lower than Morris' final tally. I think if Repoz has him at 65% when all is said and done Morris gets in.
   5. Lassus Posted: December 31, 2012 at 08:37 AM (#4335204)
I think if Repoz has him at 65% when all is said and done Morris gets in.

I hope this is true of Piazza.
   6. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 31, 2012 at 08:41 AM (#4335208)
@5: well played.

   7. John DiFool2 Posted: December 31, 2012 at 08:45 AM (#4335211)
Step inside, step inside!

If you mean is it an Atrocity Exhibition, then yeah.
   8. depletion Posted: December 31, 2012 at 08:59 AM (#4335218)
Where exactly is the Track Hall of Fame?
   9. depletion Posted: December 31, 2012 at 09:00 AM (#4335219)
Step inside, step inside!

This way to the egress!
   10. Lassus Posted: December 31, 2012 at 09:08 AM (#4335220)
Where exactly is the Track Hall of Fame?

I do not know, but I CAN tell you that the long-distance running HOF is in Utica, NY. Two or three doors down from Utica's one strip club, Peepers.
   11. vagab0nd is still a champion Posted: December 31, 2012 at 10:09 AM (#4335242)
Where exactly is the Track Hall of Fame?


It's in Manhattan, between 168th and 169th St. It's a pretty small hall of fame, but there is definitely some neat stuff in there.

National Track & Field HOF wiki
   12. you mess with the meat you get the wada Posted: December 31, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4335317)
BBTF has just been recognized by a major news source!

Does it count that it was a primate who posted it?

   13. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: December 31, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4335326)
Where exactly is the Track Hall of Fame?


Jack Morris ran only fast enough to win.
   14. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 31, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4335343)
There is a real chance that nobody will get in this year, despite the dozen or so completely deserving candidates.
   15. ajnrules Posted: December 31, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4335443)
Soooo, brass tacks: does having a publicly tracked ballot total help or hurt Jack Morris's chances?


Considering the deadline is today, I think the impact on the voting results would be minimal.
   16. CrosbyBird Posted: December 31, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4335517)
There is a real chance that nobody will get in this year, despite the dozen or so completely deserving candidates.

I am actually hoping for this. We're in a period where we need another serious voting backlash and shakeup. I will happily take a year or two without inductees if it prompts reconsideration of HOF voting rights, particularly expansion of rights to non-traditional yet highly worthwhile baseball minds.
   17. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 31, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4335524)
I don't know, the last time this place got attention in the media, my handle was mocked and I was accused of being sexist. Screw the rest of the internet!

What! You were viral? That's awesome!

If you mean is it an Atrocity Exhibition, then yeah.

Ooooh! I'm not sure whether this is a JG Ballard or Joy Division reference, but in either case, well done!

I am actually hoping for this. We're in a period where we need another serious voting backlash and shakeup. I will happily take a year or two without inductees if it prompts reconsideration of HOF voting rights, particularly expansion of rights to non-traditional yet highly worthwhile baseball minds.

I think they pretty much have to change the voting process if they want to remain relevant. As of right now, the inductees seem to care a lot about HOF induction, but I don't think fans attach any sort of meaning to induction or lack of induction as a statement on the quality of the player. It's sort of like the Academy Awards -- it's really nice to get one, but nobody seriously believes that movies that win Oscars are actually better than all movies that don't. People recognize it for what it is -- the collective opinion of specific Hollywood industry people. Nowadays people can decide for themselves who they think are the best 50, 100, 200 or whatever number of baseball players in history. They don't need the HOF to do it for them, since fewer and fewer people believe that BBWAA members know anything more about baseball than anyone else who bothers to analyze publicly available information.
   18. DA Baracus Posted: December 31, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4335527)
There is a real chance that nobody will get in this year, despite the dozen or so completely deserving candidates.


And all the writers who tried to make asshat statements about the ballot will feel vindicated. A lose/lose situation.
   19. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 31, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4335528)

I am actually hoping for this. We're in a period where we need another serious voting backlash and shakeup. I will happily take a year or two without inductees if it prompts reconsideration of HOF voting rights, particularly expansion of rights to non-traditional yet highly worthwhile baseball minds.


The HOF will act to stop this steroids-related nonsense if nobody gets in this year, or at least this year and next.
   20. SoSH U at work Posted: December 31, 2012 at 03:50 PM (#4335534)

The HOF will act to stop this steroids-related nonsense if nobody gets in this year, or at least this year and next.


Walt's right though. There's no danger of no one getting in next year, with Maddux on the ballot. And it's not likely there will be another election-free year for several years after. It's absurd no one is going to get in this year with this ridiculously loaded ballot, but this will be an aberration.
   21. vortex of dissipation Posted: December 31, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4335547)
Jack Morris ran only fast enough to win.


That was four-time Formula One World Driver's Champion Alain Prost's modus operandi. He was quoted as saying, "I always say that my ideal is to get pole with the minimum effort, and to win the race at the slowest speed possible."
   22. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: December 31, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4335561)
"I always say that my ideal is to get pole with the minimum effort..."

Him and Mike Piazza, both.
   23. Bob Meta-Meusel Posted: December 31, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4335622)
Walt's right though. There's no danger of no one getting in next year, with Maddux on the ballot. And it's not likely there will be another election-free year for several years after. It's absurd no one is going to get in this year with this ridiculously loaded ballot, but this will be an aberration.


I wonder if it's going to take something like one of the "steroid generation" players who does get in using their induction speech to talk about how many of the best players they played against aren't getting elected because of suspicion of PEDs before real movement happens.
   24. The District Attorney Posted: January 01, 2013 at 03:52 AM (#4335781)
There's no danger of no one getting in next year, with Maddux on the ballot. And it's not likely there will be another election-free year for several years after. It's absurd no one is going to get in this year with this ridiculously loaded ballot, but this will be an aberration.
You sure you want to guarantee that? I mean, yeah, there's no logical reason anyone should withhold a vote from Maddux... but there's also no logical reason anyone should withhold a vote from Biggio, and yet he might well not get elected. I think it's possible that, given a max-10 ballot (where writers have traditionally averaged more like four) that contains 10 guys with traditional "first-ballot numbers" plus about a dozen more very plausible choices, the process becomes such a cluster that it's simply impossible to get 75% no matter who you are.
   25. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: January 01, 2013 at 04:32 AM (#4335782)
I do not know, but I CAN tell you that the long-distance running HOF is in Utica, NY. Two or three doors down from Utica's one strip club, Peepers.


"Peepers"?

That's undignified. It might as we be called "Perverts".

"The Landing Strip -- a Gentleman's Club" is much klassier.
   26. SoSH U at work Posted: January 01, 2013 at 11:01 AM (#4335837)
You sure you want to guarantee that? I mean, yeah, there's no logical reason anyone should withhold a vote from Maddux... but there's also no logical reason anyone should withhold a vote from Biggio, and yet he might well not get elected. I think it's possible that, given a max-10 ballot (where writers have traditionally averaged more like four) that contains 10 guys with traditional "first-ballot numbers" plus about a dozen more very plausible choices, the process becomes such a cluster that it's simply impossible to get 75% no matter who you are.


Yeah, I will guarantee that. Biggio and Maddux (and others) do not have identical Hall of Fame cases.

A number of us predicted last year that Biggio could have to wait a year or two on the ballot due to the steroids mess, the crunch of great players and the nature of his career (until 3,000 hits, which he had to hang around to get, his excellence would have been just the kind to get short shrift by the BBWAA). His possible failure to get 75 percent this year isn't surprising. In an ordinary year, he's only looking at a high of 82 percent.

Maddux doesn't have any of those issues. He may not get as many votes as he otherwise might, say 92 percent instead of 98 percent, but he's in absolutely no danger of not making the Hall next year. Considering a few more coming on to the ballot with strong cases, plus others like Biggio, Bagwell, Piazza continuing to make progress, I'm happy to make a BBRef bet with anyone that the next five elections after 2013 result in at least one player getting inducted annually.

The only risk I see is if one year results in too many guys getting elected, but what's a gamble without risk.
   27. BDC Posted: January 01, 2013 at 11:06 AM (#4335841)
(until 3,000 hits, which he had to hang around to get, his excellence would have been just the kind to get short shrift by the BBWAA). His possible failure to get 75 percent this year isn't surprising. In an ordinary year, he's only looking at a high of 82 percent

That's a good point. Much as I continue to be amazed by Biggio's whole career, from a BBWAA perspective he's in the Alomar/Larkin range, not the Rickey Henderson range.
   28. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 01, 2013 at 11:42 AM (#4335862)
You sure you want to guarantee that? I mean, yeah, there's no logical reason anyone should withhold a vote from Maddux... but there's also no logical reason anyone should withhold a vote from Biggio, and yet he might well not get elected.

Biggio never won an MVP, and never came especially close (best finish was a respectable but distant 4th in '97). This allows the writers to say things like, "He was never among the best players in the game," even though they were wrong not to give him more MVP support in his prime.

Maddux won four consecutive Cy Young Awards, two of them unanimous. He won 355 games. He led the league in ERA four times, wins three times, WHIP four times, walk rate nine times, innings five times, shutouts five times... he's one of the very best pitchers ever, and there's not much debate about that.

Greg Maddux and Craig Biggio are not the same. So yeah, I'm willing to guarantee Maddux's first-ballot election. I'd offer a BB-Ref bet, but SOSH's offer is better than mine would be.
   29. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 01, 2013 at 12:48 PM (#4335905)
Two or three doors down from Utica's one strip club, Peepers.


Jeepers creepers!

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