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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Sunday, July 15, 2012
In one of the most bizarre ninth innings anyone has ever witnessed the Padres stole two runs off of a dazed and confused Kenley Jansen and defeated the Dodgers 7 - 6 in front of a very unhappy sold out crowd.
Jansen came into the ninth trying to protect a 6 - 5 lead. Two singles later the Padre’s had 1st and 3rd, and Kenley was facing a daunting task. His first obstacle was Cameron Maybin who fouled off pitch after pitch until Kenley finally struck him out giving hope that he could still nail down the save. Up next was one time College World Series hero Mark Kotsay who did exactly what was hoped for as he popped up. Two outs, runners at 2nd and 3rd. Don Mattingly took the time to hold a meeting and discuss the strategy. Everth Cabrerra was the runner at 3rd, Will Venable was the runner at 2nd, and Alexi Amarista was the hitter. The Dodgers had an open base to work with. Amarista was left handed, the hitter on deck Logan Forsythe was right handed. They decided to go after Amarista.
With a 2 - 1 count Jansen got a second strike on Amarista. AJ Ellis fired the ball back to Kenley who held the ball on the mound for long moments as he gathered himself for what he hoped would be the final pitch. It would never come. Jansen stepped off the mound, and hell broke loose on the basepaths. Everth Cabrerra took off for home, a clearly rattled Jansen threw a high ball to AJ Ellis who swiped at the ball and made the tag at home where Cabrerra was emphatically called out. The game was over - except - AJ Ellis never caught the ball, Once AJ realized he did have the ball he went to retrieve the ball, as the umpire realized AJ did not have the ball he reversed the call and the game was tied, but the bedeviling was just beginning. Will Venable smelled blood and decided to try for home himself. Jansen who had made the errant throw had not left the mound to cover home confused by the out call, by the time he headed for home it was to late, and Venable scored what would prove to be the winning run.
Everything went wrong for Kenley that could have and they were all of his own doing. He could have payed attention to the runner at third. He could have made a good throw home to nail the would be thief. He could have covered home after making an errant throw in which case they would have nailed Venable. Jansen did none of those things.
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1. Chip Posted: July 15, 2012 at 09:02 AM (#4182889)This is not an exaggeration. In my view, clearly an example of an umpire wanting to be part of the unfolding drama, straight out of the Enrico Pallazzo School.
Remarkable win for the Padres.
Has this become a word and I've never known it? smh.
I'm presuming that the author was simply in a heightened emotional state at the time.
I should like to know what would have happened if he didn't reverse his call. No credit awarded for that.
Has this become a word and I've never known it?
It did, right around the time the plural of Padre became Padre's.
Nope that's always been a cromulent word. Since Shakespeare or so.
And the umpire is hilarious there. He's out! He's safe! And HE'S safe and aw #### it, can I just go home now?
I gave him a stolen base!
The traditional baseball wisdom that you can take some extra chances and risk making the third out at home applies here. Jansen is a crazy good pitcher, Cabrera's very fast, and the Padres suck at hitting. It's just about the perfect situation to take a chance at stealing home, if you see an opening.
"Once AJ realized he did have the ball he went to retrieve the ball". I assume he meant "did not have the ball". In any case it isn't true. Ellis stood around with his head up his ass for several seconds before going after the ball.
Incidentally, I would not have given Cabrera a steal of home since he would have clearly been out if the throw had been on target. I would have called it a two base error. I realize plays like this are generally not scored this way.
"Once AJ realized he did have the ball he went to retrieve the ball". I assume he meant "did not have the ball". In any case it isn't true. Ellis stood around with his head up his ass for several seconds before going after the ball.
Incidentally, I would not have given Cabrera a steal of home since he would have clearly been out if the throw had been on target. I would have called it a two base error. I realize plays like this are generally not scored this way.
All steals of home are with two outs (unless the runner is a complete idiot).
I can see an argument for awarding Cabrera the steal, though. One could argue that Jansen threw the ball away because he was in an extreme hurry to unload it. Similar things happen with infielders rushing to throw the hitter out at first and throwing it away; they are almost always scored single plus however many bases on the throwing error.
Best part is when the catcher runs to the backstop to get the ball, who's right there in the front row? Pat Sajak. Look around 2:30.
Joyce blew a close call, and continued to believe he'd gotten it right until he went inside and saw the replay.
Gibson blew an obvious call, inasmuch as the catcher didn't even have the ball, the ball was 20 yards behind him. The umpire has no choice but to reverse course and signal safe. These situations aren't analogous at all. Joyce didn't change the call to safe because the rules forbade him to, but because until the game was long since over he continued to believe the runner was out.
He's interviewed after the game, it's on MLB.com, and as you decipher his broken english (which isn't half-bad at all) it sounds as if he did indeed plan it and was waiting for the right opportunity.
It was the bottom of the eighth in the tie game, so it was a pretty high-reward situation. Contradicting myself in record time, that steal of home actually did take place with just one out, but Nelson was sort of being an idiot: The squeeze was on, and he took off from third too soon.
In some cases, maybe a low throw that dribbled away in the plate collision, I could see that, but in this case Jensen could clearly see the ball he threw went to the backstop and the runner was obviously safe, no matter what the umpire says.
Eventually, Hough got to a two-out situation with George Hendrick up. Hough struck him out, but Orlando Mercado let the ball get past him (his second PB of the inning.) Hough stood at the mound while Joyner jogged on home, seemingly perplexed at how his no-hitter and shutout disappeared within minutes.
On topic, as the Giants/Astros game dragged on and on, it was nice to see something like this unfold for the Dodgers. Kruk and Kuip were fairly crowing about it on air, though to my recollection they never showed the actual video.
On another note, the scattershot copy-edit police always tickle me. Given an excerpt as, let's say 'adventurous' as that, and we settle for picking on an obsolete but technically correct spelling, a misplaced apostrophe and a missing word. The whole thing is a disaster!
It's similar to the Dodgers' triple play earlier in the year. Ump makes what appears to be a foul ball sign, then quickly changes it.
It's not really that infrequent. Tag play at the plate, umps calls out right away then sees the ball has squirted away and reverses himself. Yes, it's understandable guys will freeze in certain situations,* but I would hate for the game to have to be frozen simply because of a half-second of an inadvertant signal.
* though it shouldn't have been the case with either Jansen or Ellis - they had to know the out call would get reversed.
I've always hated that.
Edit: Although it's strange they'd let the go-ahead run get into scoring position. But I wonder how hard they tried to keep him on first.
According to the box, he stole second. I would hope no team is indifferent to the potential go-ahead run freely advancing 90 feet in the ninth innning. That would be an awful decision.
Oh, and do you hate the ruling that doesn't allow for a stolen base, or the state of indifference that allows that easy base to be taken?
What the hell is rule on throwing to third and then to first? I thought this was now a balk based on a new rule change? I saw I guess Josh Johnson of the Marlins do this at least twice in the 6th inning of Fridays game vs Nationals. Is this not being called? Is the rule change something else? I am totally confused.
EDIT: Never mind it is a proposed rule change for next year. Gee whiz.
Well, you're confused, but it's understandable. MLB, for no particular reason, has stated it is considering making this move illegal next year. For now, it remains a legal play.
The Dodgers were holding Venable on first and Jansen tossed over a few times, but, like most closers, he's not adept at holding runners. Or he just doesn't care much. You would think as a former catcher, he would care more, but it could also be a case that Jansen doesn't have that much pitching experience to be able to concentrate as closely on runners and the batter at the same time.
Jansen doesn't have that much pitching experience to be able to concentrate as closely on runners and the batter at the same time.
At this point, this seems abundantly clear.
In the 9th inning of the Giants/Astros game, 2 out, runner on 2nd, Astros down by 1 run. Chris Snyder struck out, but the ball got away from the catcher, who threw wide to first. Justin Maxwell came all the way around from 2nd to score as it appeared that Brandon Belt wasn't paying much attention after receiving the errant throw.
Of course, the Astros haven't scored at all this year in extra innings, so the Giants ultimately won.
Generally speaking the steal of home with two out has a break even point somewhere around 35%. But that's for a runner on third alone. Other baserunners complicate the matter.
In this situation you've got a really good pitcher, a less than awesome hitter arguing for an even lower break even point, but that runner on second complicates matters. An awful lot of singles win the game.
Since you'll never know the precise odds of actually making it, I think the runner on third should go any time there's a chance.
Faking a throw to the other two occupyable bases has been legal for a long, long time, perhaps as long as the balk rule and its spirit. Moreover, there are numerous legal plays that violate said spirit that MLB is doing nothing to change. I'm sticking with no particular reason.
The thing about a steal of home is that the pitcher has to be very concerned about not balking. And the play is so rare, and the balk rules are so arcane, that it must be almost impossible to do everything on instinct; the pitcher has to think carefully about what to do, while the potential tying run is steaming toward the plate. It's not an easy position to be in.
This is totally wrong. He threw home as soon as there was someone around the plate to take the throw, and did so quickly & accurately. I would say that of the Giants involved in that play, he was the most aware and quick-reacting, not the least.
Once you're caught with your head up your ass, it's almost impossible to recover gracefully.
So now you're talking about your sex life on The Mainland too??????
Just watched the replay again. It looks like to me Belt hesitates with his back to the plate before realizing Maxwell is breaking home, but you are right that the catcher was late covering home.
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