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Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Tulowitzki To Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery

How does that work… instead of a hospital bed, they use a fixed-gear bicycle?

The Rockies received more bad news on the injury front today, as Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets that MVP candidate Troy Tulowitzki will miss the remainder of the season to undergo surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip.

Tulowitzki, 29, has appeared in just 91 games this season but is hitting a hefty .340/.432/.603 with 21 homers in 375 plate appearances and elite shortstop defense.

The District Attorney Posted: August 13, 2014 at 10:34 PM | 79 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: injuries, rockies, troy tulowitzki

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   1. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 13, 2014 at 10:57 PM (#4770729)
Health isn't just a skill. Health is the skill. For all I've dreamed of being a major league baseball star, I'm not sure that I'd want Troy Tulowitzki's baseball talent if Troy Tulowitzki's health had to come along with it.

With Tulowitzki and McCutchen both bowing out of the running, who's our NL MVP frontrunner now? Kershaw for MVP may gain some steam.
   2. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 13, 2014 at 11:08 PM (#4770730)
Puig has to be in the conversation, no?
   3. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: August 13, 2014 at 11:19 PM (#4770732)
The field is wide open. Stanton is leading in WAR among position players, but I can't see him getting much support unless the Marlins make some noise, which could happen. Next among the non injured is Heywatd, but a good chunk of his value is defensive. No corner OF, not even Clemente won a MVP on defense. Next is Lucroy, who may be a dark horse. But I think it's Kershaw's to lose now.
   4. billyshears Posted: August 13, 2014 at 11:23 PM (#4770733)
I can't see any way Tulo gets traded this offseason now. Buyers will evaluate him as injury prone (rightfully so), but I can't imagine the Rockies will be willing to take a discounted price.
   5. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 13, 2014 at 11:27 PM (#4770734)
I think Puig would have to hit .450 the rest of the way to overcome the handicap that a fair number of the voters don't like him.

Speaking of guys who would need to hit .450 the rest of the way to become a viable candidate, I don't care how low offense gets, no corner outfielder is ever getting an MVP Award hitting .267/.352/.387 (Jason Heyward).
   6. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: August 13, 2014 at 11:28 PM (#4770735)
I mentioned this a couple years ago vis-a-vis Arod's injury, that, until then, "labrum injury" ALWAYS meant shoulder and always meant pitchers. And yes, I know that all ball-and-socket joints have a labrum, but what has caused this epidemic of hip labrum tears*?

*don't ask

   7. billyshears Posted: August 13, 2014 at 11:45 PM (#4770738)
I don't think the prevalence of hip labrum tears has increased - it's more likely that either (a) there have been improvements in the diagnosis of hip injuries or (b) injuries are being reported with greater specificity.
   8. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:03 AM (#4770742)
a fair number of the voters don't like him.


The voting rules are so strange and capricious, though, that he could end up with a tolerant electorate.

My prediction is that it'll be Kershaw, on the best-player-best-team thing that comes into play when there's no one standout. If Puig gets lucky, it'll be him on the same principle.

Heyward's SOL. If he played center (as he probably should) he might have a shot.
   9. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:16 AM (#4770743)
I have a hard time supporting a pitcher for MVP when he's not even a slam-dunk CYA winner. No doubt better per PA - meaningfully if not overwhelmingly better - but Kershaw going into tonight had 136.1 IP in 19 starts and Cueto has 179.2 in 25. Kershaw will start what, 27 or 28 games this year?

Although I guess there's really no one great candidate... and the 'best player on best team' does have some pull... so yeah, I'm going with Lucroy.
   10. Baldrick Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:21 AM (#4770746)
Kershaw is the slam dunk CYA winner so far! Those extra innings from Cueto are well below average.
   11. PreservedFish Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:32 AM (#4770747)
Those extra innings from Cueto are well below average.


This is well and truly false. Subtract Kershaw from Cueto and you've got a guy with 40 innings and a 2.90 ERA.
   12. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:39 AM (#4770751)
Heyward's SOL. If he played center (as he probably should) he might have a shot.

Then again, he might not. Andrew McCutchen was the first CF to win the National League award since Willie McGee. The American League MVP hasn't been given to a centerfielder since Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997. Before him, it was Robin Yount. Then, going backwards, it's Fred Lynn, then Willie Mays, then Mickey Mantle. Centerfielders have won six out of the last 100+ MVP awards.
   13. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:46 AM (#4770754)
Then again, Trout (who is definitely, finally, getting the MVP Award this year if he stays healthy the rest of the way) and McCutchen are pretty clearly the best players in their respective leagues at this point, and both are center fielders. First time in a while that's been the case, no?
   14. Baldrick Posted: August 14, 2014 at 01:22 AM (#4770766)
This is well and truly false. Subtract Kershaw from Cueto and you've got a guy with 40 innings and a 2.90 ERA
.
Check RA, not ERA. Kershaw has no unearned runs but Cueto has a ton.
   15. puck Posted: August 14, 2014 at 01:35 AM (#4770772)
I blame Dave Cameron for ranking Tulo #6 in trade value.

CarGo's probably next...might be shut down for the season due to issues with his left knee.

   16. The District Attorney Posted: August 14, 2014 at 01:42 AM (#4770774)
I don't think we need to scrutinize history in order to calculate the chance that an outfielder who hits .265 with 15 HR and 15 SB will win the MVP Award. Fair or not, I'd think that both Freeman and Justin Upton get more votes than Heyward... and won't be anywhere close to first place themselves.

How about Rendon? He's on a playoff team, he's a second baseman who leads the league in runs scored, and he is really playing pretty damn well. If we're eliminating Stanton because the team is mediocre¹ as well as pitchers, that leaves us with Puig, Lucroy, and Gomez as our top contenders. I think Rendon is very much in a group with those guys.

¹ For simplicity's sake, anyway. I do think Stanton has a shot.
   17. PreservedFish Posted: August 14, 2014 at 01:46 AM (#4770775)
Check RA, not ERA. Kershaw has no unearned runs but Cueto has a ton.


Maybe Cueto's defenders have just made a lot of errors.
   18. Baldrick Posted: August 14, 2014 at 02:09 AM (#4770781)
Or maybe RA is a more accurate stat. One which also happens to align with the massive dominance in component stats.

If you want to try and remove defense from the equation Kershaw's advantage gets bigger.
   19. zachtoma Posted: August 14, 2014 at 04:41 AM (#4770793)
Another MVP thread and I'm again surprised that Carlos Gomez's name has only come up once. If not Kershaw, he looks like the strongest position-player candidate to me - he's a true five-tool star on a first-place team, he's a flashier candidate than Lucroy ever will be. His WAR count is lower this years even though he's taken another step forward as a hitter, his defensive numbers have dropped off steeply, but I don't know how seriously anyone wants to take that given how insanely good they were last year.
   20. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: August 14, 2014 at 05:22 AM (#4770795)
his defensive numbers have dropped off steeply, but I don't know how seriously anyone wants to take that given how insanely good they were last year.

The number he got last year was completely insane, and totally out of line with his pas numbers as well as this years. Given that, I would expect this years number is closer to being accurate than last years.
   21. zachtoma Posted: August 14, 2014 at 05:24 AM (#4770796)
True, but his reputation is as a plus-plus defensive CF, I'd give him a slight benefit of the doubt as to what DRS has him at now, not up to 40-something by any stretch, but I'd give him a little more defensive credit.
   22. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 14, 2014 at 06:08 AM (#4770798)
appreciate the mention of brewers. lucroy though has been really slumping at the plate the last month or so and some local fans are kvetching that ron has worked him too hard by playing him at first when not catching.

gomez' defensive range looks fine to me. though he has made several really careless errors this season

but if you ask the team it's lucroy. if that matters
   23. shoewizard Posted: August 14, 2014 at 06:36 AM (#4770800)
I read somewhere else that McCutchen might be back sooner than expected. If thats true and he comes back to play in September and the Pirates make the playoffs, he's still in this race.

Otherwise it's Lucroy/Kershaw/Wainwright/Cueto/Puig still in the running.

Alot can happen in 6 weeks.
   24. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: August 14, 2014 at 06:52 AM (#4770801)
Harvs, I have no problem whatsoever with fine. I was just pointing out that there is a rather large gap between fine, and 4th best rField rating of all time.
   25. Flynn Posted: August 14, 2014 at 07:13 AM (#4770802)
If Kershaw wins the MVP with a sub 200 IP year, I think Pedro would be entitled to go on a rampage through the BBWAA electorate.
   26. toratoratora Posted: August 14, 2014 at 07:46 AM (#4770803)
I read somewhere else that McCutchen might be back sooner than expected. If thats true and he comes back to play in September and the Pirates make the playoffs, he's still in this race.

Otherwise it's Lucroy/Kershaw/Wainwright/Cueto/Puig still in the running.

Alot can happen in 6 weeks.


Yep. My bet is whoever goes full Chipper down the stretch will win. It could even end up like the Heisman in that a SSS may decide the vote if things are somewhat even and a player crushes the competition on a big National stage game/series/weekend.
   27. shoewizard Posted: August 14, 2014 at 07:57 AM (#4770805)
Wow, Chipper is exactly who I had in mind when I said that. :)
   28. shoewizard Posted: August 14, 2014 at 08:00 AM (#4770807)
Wow, Chipper is exactly who I had in mind when I said that. :)
   29. baerga1 Posted: August 14, 2014 at 08:11 AM (#4770810)
I think Shannon Stewart has at least an outside shot.
   30. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: August 14, 2014 at 08:44 AM (#4770822)
Maybe Cueto's defenders have just made a lot of errors.


Cueto has given up 7 unearned runs this season. Here they are:

May 20 vs the Nationals (this was Cueto's worst start of the year): Bottom of 3rd

J. Lobaton: Strikeout Looking
Fister: Reached on E3 (Ground Ball to 2B-1B)
Span: Single to 3B (Bunt to Short 3B Line); Fister Scores/Adv on E5 (throw)/No RBI/unER; Span to 3B
Rendon: Flyball: CF/Sacrifice Fly (Deep CF); Span Scores/unER
Werth: Lineout: CF

May 26 vs the Dodgers: Bottom of 3rd
D. Butera: Single to RF (Line Drive to Deep 2B-1B)
E. Arruebarrena: Strikeout Swinging
H. Ryu: Bunt Groundout: P-2B/Sacrifice (Short 1B Line); Butera to 2B
D. Gordon: Reached on E3 (Ground Ball to 2B-1B); Butera Scores/unER/No RBI; Gordon to 1B

Bottom of 7th
J. Turner: Walk
D. Butera: Flyball: LF (Deep LF-CF)
E. Arruebarrena: Ground-rule Double (Line Drive to Deep LF); Turner to 3B
H. Ryu: Reached on E6 (Ground Ball to Weak SS); Turner Scores; Arruebarrena to 3B
Parra replaces Cueto
D. Gordon: Fielder's Choice 3B; Arruebarrena out at Hm/3B-C; Ryu to 2B
C. Crawford: Double to CF (Line Drive to LF-CF); Ryu Scores/unER; Gordon Scores/unER

So, 5 of the 7 unearned runs came in back-to-back starts, the two in the Nats game, and the first one in the Dodgers game were definitely due to the defense letting him down. The other 2 in the Dodgers game, without that error by Cozart, there are 2 outs, instead of 1. Parra gets the first man he faces, so, the Reds would have been out of the inning.
   31. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: August 14, 2014 at 08:49 AM (#4770823)
The other 2 unearned runs came in the June 22 game against Toronto, both in the bottom of the 3rd:

Kawasaki: Reached on E3 (throw) (Ground Ball to 2B-1B)
Cabrera: Single to RF (Line Drive to Short RF); Kawasaki to 2B
Batista: Reached on E1/Sacrifice Bunt(!) (Bunt to Front of Home); Kawasaki to 3B; Cabrera to 2B
Encarnacion: Lineout: SS (Deep SS-2B)
Rasmus: Single to RF (Ground Ball thru 2B-1B); Kawasaki Scores/unER; Cabrera Scores/unER; Bautista to 2B
Tolleson: Ground Ball Double Play: SS-2B-1B

So, 2 errors among the first 3 batters
   32. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 14, 2014 at 08:59 AM (#4770828)
Another MVP thread and I'm again surprised that Carlos Gomez's name has only come up once.


He may be the only player in the the league the voting body likes even less than Yasiel Puig.

I read somewhere else that McCutchen might be back sooner than expected.


He might, but he won't play well if he does. His injury reliably takes at least four weeks to heal, usually closer to six.
   33. TJ Posted: August 14, 2014 at 09:08 AM (#4770832)
What? Tulowitzki is injured? I'm shocked, shocked I say!- Capt. Renault
   34. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: August 14, 2014 at 09:36 AM (#4770845)
I don't think we need to scrutinize history in order to calculate the chance that an outfielder who hits .265 with 15 HR and 15 SB will win the MVP Award. Fair or not, I'd think that both Freeman and Justin Upton get more votes than Heyward... and won't be anywhere close to first place themselves.


I agree. Heyward's had an okay season, but he's on pace for 14 homers and 65 RBI. Realistically, no non-Ichiro corner outfielder will win an MVP with those numbers.
   35. Mom makes botox doctors furious Posted: August 14, 2014 at 09:39 AM (#4770848)
While it's HIGHLY unlikely that Kershaw can pull of a triple crown, he has a chance to win 20-22 games. Combine this with a league leading WHIP and a potential sub 1.80 ERA, and you've got a pretty hot candidate IN SPITE of the likely sub 200 innings pitched.

I like the McCutchen angle, if the dude comes WARRING back, winning the batting title (good narrative) and leading the Bucs into the post season, and a top three WAR finish.

Heyward has no chance. Zero. Zip. Nada.

Of course Stanton. If he goes 40 deep, leading the league in HR and RBI, and pulls AVG over .300 (people love that ####), he's probably the man.

And if Ryan Howard winds up leading the league in RBI................................

Here and Now I go with: Kershaw, Stanton, McCutchen as the top 3
   36. Greg K Posted: August 14, 2014 at 09:40 AM (#4770849)
Batista: Reached on E1/Sacrifice Bunt(!)

They Jays have had great success on other teams ####### up sacrifice bunts this season. I think they've had two walk-off wins where a pitcher has thrown the ball away on a sac bunt, and the 19 inning marathon against Detroit last weekend effectively ended when Kinsler dropped the throw to first on a bunt and ended with runners on the corners with no one out.

Speaking of which, is defence the reason Detroit is out of the division lead? They seem like they should be a better team than Kansas City, but every time I see the Tigers play someone is making a goofy play in the field.

EDIT: I see B-Ref has them last in the AL in defensive runs saved. Perhaps unsurprisingly the 5 playoff teams (Oak, Ana, Sea, Bal, and KC) are the only positive run teams in the AL. Then Detroit (I believe tied with Seattle) dead last.
   37. Downtown Bookie Posted: August 14, 2014 at 09:41 AM (#4770850)
Well, I don't know how much truth there was to those trade rumours, but it looks like the Mets made the right move by not getting Tulowitzki.

DB
   38. AROM Posted: August 14, 2014 at 09:50 AM (#4770859)
If you ignore batting average, Heyward's season looks like 2003 Ichiro. Ichiro hit .312, .352 OBP, 112 OPS+, 13 HR and 62 RBI.

Heyward has a .352 OBP, 108 OPS+, and on pace for about Ichiro's power numbers. I see his UZR and TZ are pretty close to his insane DRS total. I wouldn't call him most valuable, but he's been a valuable player in a way that is unexpected. A 6'5, 240 pound guy who hit like Heyward did at ages 20 and 22, you don't expect Ichiro numbers. You expect him to be competing with Stanton.
   39. Moeball Posted: August 14, 2014 at 10:33 AM (#4770903)
And so Tulo's "Barry Larkin-ish" career continues. He's gonna have a tough time getting to Cooperstown on this track. He'll have both the "too much missed playing time" and the "Coors deduction on stats" whammies going against him. He needs to have at least a few healthy seasons, hopefully at least one ending in some hardware (that isn't a new hip)to place on the mantlepiece.
   40. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 14, 2014 at 10:48 AM (#4770924)
I also wonder if Tulowitzki might be capable of a late career surge if parked at 1B/DH to keep him healthy, like Paul Molitor. I know it seems daft on its face to move one of the best defensive shortstops alive to 1B/DH, but... do you prefer a good 1B/DH or a guy on the disabled list half the year? Because playing shortstop every day looks less tenable of an option for Tulowitzki every year.

I think similar things about Bryce Harper. The man has struggled to stay healthy more than a few weeks at a time since the day he arrived in pro ball. He's a good outfielder, but the Nationals might be better served parking him at first base, both for his health's sake and so they can tell him, "You were born to rake; just focus all your attention on hitting."
   41. Ziggy Posted: August 14, 2014 at 10:53 AM (#4770930)
I'm afraid that the Brewers simply aren't in it. Neither Gomez nor Lucroy is going to have the shiny stats that get the attention of sports writers. If McCutchen comes back soon and tears things up (for a resurgent Pirates team), he'll be in it. But I suspect that Stanton takes it, despite not playing for a good team. HR and RBI leader helps a lot. Marlins are better than expected. He doesn't have a GG, but (as I said in the other thread) he's looking like Andre Dawson 1987 to me. He's also been good all year, which helps. Kershaw, as repeatedly discussed, is the other main contender.

But who knows, maybe Drew Stubbs will hit 350/450/700 for the rest of the way and lead the Rockies to the pennant. Stranger things have happened.
   42. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 14, 2014 at 10:58 AM (#4770934)
But who knows, maybe Drew Stubbs will hit 350/450/700 for the rest of the way and lead the Rockies to the pennant. Stranger things have happened.


Hahaha, I don't think any stranger thing has happened. At this point the Rockies would have to win out to have a chance at the postseason. But hey, it's doable--a 42 game winning streak and they're right in that thing!
   43. billyshears Posted: August 14, 2014 at 11:01 AM (#4770935)
Heyward looks great defensively, and the numbers are uniformly and consistently great, but there is just no way I'm giving him credit for 4 WAR defensively in a season.
   44. puck Posted: August 14, 2014 at 11:02 AM (#4770937)
And so Tulo's "Barry Larkin-ish" career continues. He's gonna have a tough time getting to Cooperstown on this track.


Hmm, they are pretty close through their age 29 seasons:

Tulo: 961 G, 4064 PA, 2 150+ game seasons, 37.8 fWAR, 29.1 oWAR
Larkin: 935 G, 3923 PA, 2 150+ game seasons, 34.6 fWAR, 30.8 oWAR

Larkin had quite a 2nd half though, with 35.5 WAR from age 30 on, including his MVP season and seasons of 145, 145, 152, 162, and 110 games (in 1994). Plus 131 in his MVP year (in 1995).

   45. Greg K Posted: August 14, 2014 at 11:25 AM (#4770965)
Probably because they're Rockies, but I've always associated Tulo with Larry Walker. Great, but injured.
   46. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 14, 2014 at 11:56 AM (#4771008)
Check RA, not ERA. Kershaw has no unearned runs but Cueto has a ton.


Maybe Cueto's defenders have just made a lot of errors.


The Reds are 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Dodgers 13th, yet somehow Kershaw has much better rate stats.
   47. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:04 PM (#4771013)
Carlos Gomez is an elite defender who has saved 85 runs in 935 games and 38 in 147 games last year, so he is an elite defender who was one of greatest all time in 2013 and merely meh to good the other 7 years, or he is a good defender and there is a lot of yearly variance in defensive measurements when nearly half your career defensive value comes in a single season.
   48. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:29 PM (#4771042)
Gomez's fielding numbers are down this year simply because Joey Votto hasn't hit any balls for him to snag from over the wall.
   49. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: August 14, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4771044)
I guess with a hot September one of the Braves' hitters (Freeman, J. Upton) could sneak into the conversation.
   50. Spahn Insane Posted: August 14, 2014 at 01:42 PM (#4771097)
But who knows, maybe Drew Stubbs will hit 350/450/700 for the rest of the way and lead the Rockies to the pennant. Stranger things have happened.

Oh?
   51. Moeball Posted: August 14, 2014 at 02:18 PM (#4771125)
Hmm, they are pretty close through their age 29 seasons:

Tulo: 961 G, 4064 PA, 2 150+ game seasons, 37.8 fWAR, 29.1 oWAR
Larkin: 935 G, 3923 PA, 2 150+ game seasons, 34.6 fWAR, 30.8 oWAR

Larkin had quite a 2nd half though, with 35.5 WAR from age 30 on, including his MVP season and seasons of 145, 145, 152, 162, and 110 games (in 1994). Plus 131 in his MVP year (in 1995).


You're right, they are actually fairly similar at this point in their careers.

Hmm...Larkin had more WAR after age 30 than before, including an unusual power surge in 1996 at age 32. Must have been helped by the ster...eo system he was listening to, right?
   52. TDF, situational idiot Posted: August 14, 2014 at 02:35 PM (#4771142)
Hmm...Larkin had more WAR after age 30 than before, including an unusual power surge in 1996 at age 32. Must have been helped by the ster...eo system he was listening to, right?
I know (hope) you're being sarcastic, but '96 was the 1st* year since '90 that Larkin played in more than 140 games (and 3rd in his career); health might've had something to do with it.

*Larkin probably would've played that many in '94 if not for the strike, which still means it was only his 4th healthy seasons.
   53. Walt Davis Posted: August 14, 2014 at 06:06 PM (#4771318)
Almost certainly you should move Tulo -- it's a hip injury. You use your hip rather a lot at SS.
   54. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 14, 2014 at 07:19 PM (#4771373)
[53] Troy Tulowitzki, future left fielder?
   55. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 14, 2014 at 08:31 PM (#4771408)

If I had to guess, the MVP will be Stanton. He will probably lead the league in HR and RBI with an average in the .290 ballpark, and no real sabermetric case against him (he's currently second in the league in WAR).

Kershaw may lead the league in WAR but without 20 wins or 200 IP, it's tough to see it happening. He does have a shot at both, but if the Dodgers continue to have a 5-win lead in the division they probably will not ride him that hard down the stretch. That said, the writers have given the award to *closers* with a worse ERA than Kershaw has right now, so I wouldn't personally let the lack of innings bother me if I were a writer.

Is it crazy to think Cueto has a shot at the CY or MVP? With a good stretch run, he could finish the year with a sub-2 ERA, 20 wins, 240 IP and lead the league in K's. It's not likely, but he'd be difficult to ignore in that situation.
   56. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: August 14, 2014 at 11:53 PM (#4771551)
Is it crazy to think Cueto has a shot at the CY or MVP? With a good stretch run, he could finish the year with a sub-2 ERA, 20 wins, 240 IP and lead the league in K's. It's not likely, but he'd be difficult to ignore in that situation.


To believe that Cueto has a chance, you would have to believe he is going to out pitch Kershaw down the stretch. That is possible, but pretty unlikely. Frankly, Kershaw blowing past Cueto and Strasburg for the lead in strikeouts to take the triple crown seems more likely.
   57. AROM Posted: August 15, 2014 at 09:45 AM (#4771610)
[53] Troy Tulowitzki, future left fielder?


He could still be on a HOF path.

Ripken? Definitely not
Larkin? Not if he moves off short
Yount? Maybe

But if he keeps getting hurt, he's Nomar.
   58. McCoy Posted: August 15, 2014 at 10:15 AM (#4771639)
It's looking like the first contract extension would have been a great deal for the Rockies but the second one was pretty stupid. I still they could have waited a few years before giving him his first extension thereby making the need for a second extension unnecessary.
   59. Mom makes botox doctors furious Posted: August 15, 2014 at 12:11 PM (#4771753)
"Frankly, Kershaw blowing past Cueto and Strasburg for the lead in strikeouts to take the triple crown seems more likely."

'Pitchers, start your engines!!'

   60. AROM Posted: August 15, 2014 at 01:14 PM (#4771835)
It's looking like the first contract extension would have been a great deal for the Rockies but the second one was pretty stupid.


Looks like the first one was 7/45, from 2008-14, second was 6/118 from 2015-20. First one obviously worked out. I know the second one was signed a few years ago, but had it not been and Tulo was a pure free agent right now:

Don't you think he'd easily get 6/118? I'd think a good defensive shortstop leading the league in AVG/OBP/SLG easily tops the Cano deal. The health aspect is the big variable here. Is he still a good shortstop when he comes back? Is he even a shortstop? His big competition on the free agent market is Hanley Ramirez. I'd think Tulo on a bad hip still easily outfields Hanley. But who knows.
   61. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 15, 2014 at 01:49 PM (#4771873)
I think it's probably time to stop thinking of Tulowitzki as a shortstop. But if he could stay healthy as a first baseman and post a 120-130 OPS+ over 140 games a year (with, likely, first base defense at a level not seen since Keith Hernandez at least for the first few years), yeah, he's worth 6/118 and then some.
   62. AROM Posted: August 15, 2014 at 01:59 PM (#4771887)
Chase Utley came back from hip surgery and resumed his excellent defense at second. A-Rod came back twice from hip surgery and his defense was not unexpectedly bad, just the expected decline from age.

Unless this is beyond normal surgery and into Bo Jackson/Albert Belle hip replacement, it's too early to be moving him to first. Still had a +8 DRS this year at short. If he can't move the same way, try second or third before giving up all of his defensive value.
   63. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 15, 2014 at 02:09 PM (#4771898)
It's not that we should expect his defense to decline; it's that when you have a guy who is constantly getting injured, stretching on for years, you probably need to move him to a less demanding defensive position as an important part of your effort to keep him on the field. It's better to have a decent-hitting first baseman with a slick glove than a guy on the 60-day DL.
   64. billyshears Posted: August 15, 2014 at 02:16 PM (#4771905)
I'm not convinced that shortstop is physically demanding in the sense that playing it increases the risk of injury over playing any other position (even 1b).
   65. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 15, 2014 at 02:18 PM (#4771907)
Of course shortstop is more physically demanding than other positions. The shortstop is involved in more plays and more athleticism is required of him to make those plays.
   66. Willie Mayspedester Posted: August 15, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4771959)
No reason he can't play third like the minotaur.
   67. AROM Posted: August 15, 2014 at 03:38 PM (#4771963)
Of course shortstop is more physically demanding than other positions. The shortstop is involved in more plays and more athleticism is required of him to make those plays.


If you knew for certain that a player could handle 150 games at first, or 90 at short, and he's got the kind of bat you always want in the lineup, then it makes sense to play first.

I agree shortstop is more demanding, but not likely to be that much. You can always consider 3rd base - involved in less plays than short, but better utilizes a player with a great arm.
   68. McCoy Posted: August 15, 2014 at 03:39 PM (#4771966)
It's basically a 7 year 132 million dollar extension. My point is was that the Rockies could have waited a year or two and given Troy an extension then which would keep him on the team until around 2016 to 2019 which I would guess the team would rather have.
   69. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 15, 2014 at 03:49 PM (#4771975)

How many, if any, of Tulo's injuries have come in the field?
   70. puck Posted: August 15, 2014 at 03:53 PM (#4771980)
How many, if any, of Tulo's injuries have come in the field?


Excellent question. After all these years, I suppose there's still no injury database? Is there even a place that lists DL stints?
   71. puck Posted: August 15, 2014 at 03:54 PM (#4771982)
Geez, I had no idea the MLB.com player cards had PECOTA "rest of season" projections on them.
   72. billyshears Posted: August 15, 2014 at 04:24 PM (#4772008)
Of course shortstop is more physically demanding than other positions. The shortstop is involved in more plays and more athleticism is required of him to make those plays.


I agree that shortstop is more physically demanding in the sense that it requires greater athleticism to play competently. I'm just not sure that those athletic demands materially increase the risk of injuries for shortstops.
   73. puck Posted: August 15, 2014 at 04:45 PM (#4772017)
Tulo's injuries. Since some of those sound like they were from lingering issues, so it's hard to tell "where" the injury was actually suffered. Twice an injury in the field led directly to him coming out of the game (and heading to the DL), once in 2008 and once in 2013. But this season's hip issue could have accumulated from wear and tear from the field.

Year, games played; injury
2008 101 games, misses 46 games from 4/29 upper left quad strain first felt on a throw to first base
2009 151 games,
2010 122 games, misses 33 games in june/july with broken bone in left wrist injury after HBP
2011 143 games, misses 13 games in Sept with sore LEFT hip first suffered in batting cage:
2012 47 games, Put on DL in late May with groin strain while running; groin had been bothering him since 1st series of season. Ends up requiring season-ending surgery.
2013 126 games, broke rib on rt side diving for grounder June 13
2014 91 games; misses 64 games surgery on left hip labrum; left game 7/19 with "cramp in thigh" after running out a ground ball
   74. Willie Mayspedester Posted: August 15, 2014 at 05:04 PM (#4772027)
He could also change his conditioning program if he didn't need to play SS. I think it's only a guess whether he can stay healthier if moved off SS. I'd say his value definitely goes down without his defense at SS and maybe he sustains less injury in the future. This isn't as obvious as moving Mauer off catcher due to concussions here.
   75. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 15, 2014 at 05:05 PM (#4772029)

#73 - thank you. Seems like a mix of both hitting and fielding injuries.
   76. Ziggy Posted: August 15, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4772033)
There's a fair amount of freak injuries in there, but I have to wonder if compensating for freak injuries makes other injuries more likely. Did he alter his swing after the broken bone in 2010? (Which could have led to a weird swing and a new injury in 2011?)
   77. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: August 15, 2014 at 05:09 PM (#4772035)
There's a huge caveat there, which is that it's impossible for us to know how any injury REALLY started, unless it was something very obvious like a guy's wrist getting broken by a hit-by-pitch or getting concussed by a collision. One of the things about baseball players the general public least understands or appreciates is the way most of them are playing hurt a lot of the time. It's a very long season and you have to play every day.

I don't think it's controversial to suggest that the further right you move on the defensive spectrum, the less taxing the position is on your body. (With the sole exception, of course, that second base is tougher than shortstop due to turning all those double play pivots.)
   78. puck Posted: August 15, 2014 at 05:24 PM (#4772052)
Well, except I don't know that left field helps Tulo. There's a lot of running left field and it hasn't kept CarGo's knees healthy.

I've seen it reported that these leg injuries are related but can't remember many specifics from the article (if that info came from the specialists doc he saw on the trip where he showed up at the Yankee game, etc.).
   79. Dan Posted: August 16, 2014 at 02:57 PM (#4772447)
I wouldn't expect third base to be easier on a guy with a hip injury than SS. Third base requires more dives and especially more dives that involve pushing off of one leg to make a lateral dive for a hot smash grounder. It also seems like relative to other positions you see hip injuries at third base more than others (ARod and Mike Lowell both come to mind as recent examples). If his hip(s) are the issue then he's probably better off moving to RF IMO.

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