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Monday, November 09, 2009

Twinkie Town: How Good Is J.J. Hardy’s Defense?

Hardy: Boy, game plan for disaster?

The obvious and most probable outcome is that both groups are right.  Hardy’s speed likely inhibits his range in the field, which is partially made up for by great positioning and an ability to consistently and reliably make outs in situations where he’s expected to make them.  Is his positioning so great that it allows him to challenge for the most plays made outside his zone every year?  Probably not.

I expect that when we finally get to see Hardy play everyday next summer, we will be a little surprised at how he moves.  But that’s where the numbers come in.  He’s obviously making a ton of plays, more than a vast majority of shortstops in baseball, and he’s earned his reputation (on paper and on grass) as one of the best defensive infielders in the game today.

Any questions we might have will (obviously) get answers once we actually watch him play.  Until then I’m content knowing that we did get a very good defensive shortstop in return for Carlos Gomez.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter how you get the out as long as you get it.  It’s just like picking up the win—just get it.  And that’s something J.J. Hardy is apparently very, very good at.  Both sides agree on that.

Repoz Posted: November 09, 2009 at 06:52 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, sabermetrics, twins

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   1. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 09, 2009 at 07:24 AM (#3382698)
Until then I’m content knowing that we did get a <strike>very good defensive shortstop</strike> major league baseball player in return for Carlos Gomez.



Fixed.
   2. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 09, 2009 at 07:39 AM (#3382701)
Surprisingly good considering that he's the slowest fast-looking dude you've ever seen. Seriously, Twins fans, just wait until he hits a grounder into the hole at short and you look to first, anticipating a bang-bang play only to find J.J. just passing the 75-foot mark. He just has no second gear, which fortunately he doesn't need to play a good shortstop because he's quick.
   3. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 09, 2009 at 08:20 AM (#3382708)
Lou Boudreau was an excellent defender who was also famously slow.
   4. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 09, 2009 at 08:36 AM (#3382715)
Cal Ripken was never a speed demon, but he was a pretty good fielder. Tejada used to be a good fielder, and he was pretty slow himself.
   5. sunnyday2 Posted: November 09, 2009 at 10:29 AM (#3382748)
We just hope he'll be an upgrade--considering offense, defense and playing time (injuries and availability)--over Adam Everett.
   6. whoisalhedges Posted: November 09, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3382801)
I think the Twins schooled us on this one.

Is Hardy going to be as good in the future as he was in '07-'08? I would guess probably not. Is Escobar a better defensive shortstop? Probably. Is Mike Cameron over the hill? Sure.

But Brewers fans are way too focused on dumping Hardy after his bad year -- and with Escobar in the wings and J.J. facing arbitration, I agree. J.J. Hardy is beside the point, though. We just replaced Mike Cameron with Carlos Gomez. And I can't see any possible positive outcome to that.
   7. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 09, 2009 at 03:02 PM (#3382804)
We just replaced Mike Cameron with Carlos Gomez. And I can't see any possible positive outcome to that.

Brewers offensive innings will end more quickly, so fans can get home earlier.
   8. Cris E Posted: November 09, 2009 at 03:42 PM (#3382831)
Oh come on, it's not all ashes and dispair.

Gomez is charming. He's actually fun to watch. He's also quite a ways from his 35th birthday, or whatever Mike C is coming up on. And when you pair him with $10m worth of starting pitcher and compare that with Cameron, he'll look really good.

OK, mostly the last one. But that's pretty good.
   9. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: November 09, 2009 at 03:50 PM (#3382835)
And these days, $10 million worth of starting pitcher will buy you what, Jon Garland?
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 09, 2009 at 03:54 PM (#3382843)
And these days, $10 million worth of starting pitcher will buy you what, Jon Garland?

You can probably get him for $8M, but, yeah that's about right.
   11. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 09, 2009 at 04:13 PM (#3382869)
They are also saving about $5 million by replacing Hardy with Escobar. Pretending that's a wash, Gomez plus $15 million of pitcher looks pretty good.
   12. andrewberg Posted: November 09, 2009 at 07:08 PM (#3383131)
If Hardy indeed thrives on defensive positioning, do you think it will hurt him to move to a new league with a new group of pitchers whose tendencies are foreign to him? He may be in for a rough start if his primary skill is attentiveness and knowledge.
   13. JoeHova Posted: November 09, 2009 at 07:55 PM (#3383212)
It really is unbelievable how slow JJ is. It's what prejudiced me against him at first with regards to his defense. I thought there was no way a guy as slow as he is could possibly be as good as minor league scouts were claiming. I mean, he's noticeably slower than Prince Fielder and nobody would assume Prince would make a good shortstop. However, the scouting reports about JJ's great defense turned out to be accurate.

Anyway, the worrisome thing about the Hardy/Cameron to Escobar/Gomez move is that Hardy & Cameron were great defenders. Usually when a team replaces hitters with non-hitters, the non-hitters are better defenders so the downgrade is not as large as it first would appear. However, Escobar and Gomez are going to have to be exceptionally good to even match the defense of Cameron and Hardy, much less exceed it by enough to make up for the massive offensive downgrade.
   14. andrewberg Posted: November 09, 2009 at 08:07 PM (#3383226)
Good point JH. I guess the calculation will have to be something like Escobar/Gomez/Pitcher X > Hardy/Cameron/replaced pitcher. It seems like a long shot, but at least it provides flexibility for a few years while Escobar and Gomez are cheap and not approaching a decline.

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