Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Twinkie Town: Twins Officially Sign Josh Willingham: Contract Breakdown and Analysis

I’m guessing Willingham is a strike-throwing pitcher with no velocity?

Twitter is blowing up with the news that the Twins have made the Josh Willingham signing official. He’ll get three years, earning $7 million in both 2012 and 2013, with the possibility of adding another million on top of all that in 2014 should he reach 525 plate appearances in ‘13. It’s a good deal, and here’s why.

Over the next three years, each win above replacement should cost somewhere just north of $5 million dollars, depending on the baseball and more wide-ranging fiscal markets. With the understanding that we want to be conservative we’ll estimate that from 2012 to 2014, when Willingham’s contract expires, cost for each win above replacement will average at $5.25 million….

If Josh Willingham maintains his averages, he will have been worth almost twice what the Twins will pay him. And if he exceeds those numbers, the value of this contract obviously becomes even greater.

To be honest, I’d be surprised if he maintained his 2.5 WAR-per-season average at this point in his career. We’re paying a guy for his age-33, 34 and 35 seasons, so it’s unrealistic to expect him to perform like he has through his prime. But that doesn’t make this a bad deal. It’s still a very good one.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 06:42 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: twins

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#4017300)
Wow. When was the last time the Twins signed another team's free agent for more than one year and more than a couple million? Terry Steinbach?
   2. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:43 PM (#4017303)
Good to see The Hammer finally get paid. He has been a relative bargain for years now.
   3. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:52 PM (#4017316)
Was Willingham Type A? Type B? I hope the A's are at least getting a sandwich pick.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:54 PM (#4017320)
Willingham is a modified Type A, so the A's get a sandwich pick, Twins don't lose a pick IIRC.
   5. McCoy Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:58 PM (#4017325)
Which team got the better deal for the Oakland A's rent-a-player outfielder? The Cubs and their 2 year 12.25 million deal or the Twins with their 3 year 21 million dollar deal?
   6. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:01 PM (#4017326)
Thanks AG#1F.
   7. Craig in MN Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#4017334)

Willingham is a modified Type A, so the A's get a sandwich pick, Twins don't lose a pick IIRC.


The Twins don't loose a pick, but the A's get a magicly-created pick directly before the Twins in the second round, as well as a sandwich pick. The Twins would be in the same boat if (when) Cuddyer signs elsewhere.
   8. puck Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:36 AM (#4017484)
Uh oh. Does this mean the Rockies are the leader in the Cuddyer sweepstakes?
   9. Walt Davis Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:40 AM (#4017486)
In the abstract, I think I'll take DeJ at 2/$12.5 over Willingham at 3/$21. In the particular, from the Cubs point of view, I'll take DeJesus again because they need an RF not an LF. I can see the Twins might prefer Willingham since they can DH him if the D is too bad.

All of the above might be different if I'd seen much of either guy or if my scouts told me that DeJ's 2011 is for real -- who needs a mid-90s OPS+ RF?
   10. bookbook Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:31 AM (#4017528)
So long as they don't tighten a pick, I think we're all good.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Downtown Bookie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 2018 September 17: How Brett Kavanaugh explains his baseball ticket debt
(1067 - 2:11pm, Sep 19)
Last: The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s

NewsblogRed Sox division title banner falls off truck; its return may cost them - The Boston Globe
(3 - 2:09pm, Sep 19)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogOT - 2018 NBA Thread (Pre-Season Edition)
(359 - 2:05pm, Sep 19)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogChristian Yelich makes baseball history with second cycle of season
(23 - 2:04pm, Sep 19)
Last: Batman

NewsblogSherman - Statistical Revolution Is Killing The Next Generation Of MLB Fans
(33 - 2:03pm, Sep 19)
Last: JL72

NewsblogThe Orioles became the first professional sports team to wear Braille jerseys
(32 - 1:55pm, Sep 19)
Last: Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty

NewsblogWhy The Dodgers' WS Odds are So High
(21 - 1:50pm, Sep 19)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogHow to fix baseball? Two ways MLB can improve its product without changing the game on the field
(70 - 1:48pm, Sep 19)
Last: My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto

NewsblogCain stars in Directional Outs Above Average
(2 - 1:06pm, Sep 19)
Last: Master of the Horse

NewsblogGoin' to Carolina in OMNICHATTER's mind, for September 18, 2018
(103 - 1:03pm, Sep 19)
Last: phredbird

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-19-2018
(38 - 1:02pm, Sep 19)
Last: vortex of dissipation

Sox Therapy6,036 Days
(4 - 12:54pm, Sep 19)
Last: HAL9000

Gonfalon CubsThe Final Push
(120 - 12:52pm, Sep 19)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogSnell wins 20th, ties Rays record in 4-0 victory over Texas
(11 - 12:41pm, Sep 19)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1947 Discussion
(9 - 11:11am, Sep 19)
Last: DL from MN

Page rendered in 0.2318 seconds
46 querie(s) executed