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Thursday, December 15, 2011

Twinkie Town: Twins Officially Sign Josh Willingham: Contract Breakdown and Analysis

I’m guessing Willingham is a strike-throwing pitcher with no velocity?

Twitter is blowing up with the news that the Twins have made the Josh Willingham signing official. He’ll get three years, earning $7 million in both 2012 and 2013, with the possibility of adding another million on top of all that in 2014 should he reach 525 plate appearances in ‘13. It’s a good deal, and here’s why.

Over the next three years, each win above replacement should cost somewhere just north of $5 million dollars, depending on the baseball and more wide-ranging fiscal markets. With the understanding that we want to be conservative we’ll estimate that from 2012 to 2014, when Willingham’s contract expires, cost for each win above replacement will average at $5.25 million….

If Josh Willingham maintains his averages, he will have been worth almost twice what the Twins will pay him. And if he exceeds those numbers, the value of this contract obviously becomes even greater.

To be honest, I’d be surprised if he maintained his 2.5 WAR-per-season average at this point in his career. We’re paying a guy for his age-33, 34 and 35 seasons, so it’s unrealistic to expect him to perform like he has through his prime. But that doesn’t make this a bad deal. It’s still a very good one.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 06:42 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: twins

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   1. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#4017300)
Wow. When was the last time the Twins signed another team's free agent for more than one year and more than a couple million? Terry Steinbach?
   2. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:43 PM (#4017303)
Good to see The Hammer finally get paid. He has been a relative bargain for years now.
   3. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:52 PM (#4017316)
Was Willingham Type A? Type B? I hope the A's are at least getting a sandwich pick.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:54 PM (#4017320)
Willingham is a modified Type A, so the A's get a sandwich pick, Twins don't lose a pick IIRC.
   5. McCoy Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:58 PM (#4017325)
Which team got the better deal for the Oakland A's rent-a-player outfielder? The Cubs and their 2 year 12.25 million deal or the Twins with their 3 year 21 million dollar deal?
   6. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:01 PM (#4017326)
Thanks AG#1F.
   7. Craig in MN Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#4017334)

Willingham is a modified Type A, so the A's get a sandwich pick, Twins don't lose a pick IIRC.

The Twins don't loose a pick, but the A's get a magicly-created pick directly before the Twins in the second round, as well as a sandwich pick. The Twins would be in the same boat if (when) Cuddyer signs elsewhere.
   8. puck Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:36 AM (#4017484)
Uh oh. Does this mean the Rockies are the leader in the Cuddyer sweepstakes?
   9. Walt Davis Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:40 AM (#4017486)
In the abstract, I think I'll take DeJ at 2/$12.5 over Willingham at 3/$21. In the particular, from the Cubs point of view, I'll take DeJesus again because they need an RF not an LF. I can see the Twins might prefer Willingham since they can DH him if the D is too bad.

All of the above might be different if I'd seen much of either guy or if my scouts told me that DeJ's 2011 is for real -- who needs a mid-90s OPS+ RF?
   10. bookbook Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:31 AM (#4017528)
So long as they don't tighten a pick, I think we're all good.

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