Twinkie Town: Twins Officially Sign Josh Willingham: Contract Breakdown and Analysis

I’m guessing Willingham is a strike-throwing pitcher with no velocity?

Twitter is blowing up with the news that the Twins have made the Josh Willingham signing official. He’ll get three years, earning $7 million in both 2012 and 2013, with the possibility of adding another million on top of all that in 2014 should he reach 525 plate appearances in ‘13. It’s a good deal, and here’s why.

Over the next three years, each win above replacement should cost somewhere just north of $5 million dollars, depending on the baseball and more wide-ranging fiscal markets. With the understanding that we want to be conservative we’ll estimate that from 2012 to 2014, when Willingham’s contract expires, cost for each win above replacement will average at $5.25 million….

If Josh Willingham maintains his averages, he will have been worth almost twice what the Twins will pay him. And if he exceeds those numbers, the value of this contract obviously becomes even greater.

To be honest, I’d be surprised if he maintained his 2.5 WAR-per-season average at this point in his career. We’re paying a guy for his age-33, 34 and 35 seasons, so it’s unrealistic to expect him to perform like he has through his prime. But that doesn’t make this a bad deal. It’s still a very good one.