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Thursday, July 24, 2014

Twitter / Ken_Rosenthal: Mariners announce acquisition of Kendrys Morales for RHP Stephen Pryor.

This tickles me for some reason.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:05 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mariners, trade, twins

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   1. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:15 PM (#4757074)
I'll take it!
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:19 PM (#4757077)
So they're paying $4 million and giving up a reliever to get a guy that actually has been WORSE than the god awful DHs they've been putting out there? ZIPS projects Morales to have -0.7 WAR the rest of the year.

Okay.

   3. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4757080)
So how much money did the Twins pay to Kendry before trading him for Pryor?
   4. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4757092)
Six months ago Kendrys Morales and Nelson Cruz were seen as interchangeable by a lot of people. Now Nelson Cruz is the savior of a team that has been crushed by the pumpkinification of Chris Davis, and Kendrys Morales is seen as a hitting downgrade from Logan Morrison.
   5. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:27 PM (#4757097)
#3--Had he played all year for the Twins, he was set to earn $7.5MM. So.... find someone better at fractions!
   6. Good cripple hitter Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:29 PM (#4757101)
ZIPS projects Morales to have -0.7 WAR the rest of the year


No, ZIPS projects Morales to have -0.7 WAR for the entire year (including his current -0.9 WAR) and +0.2 WAR for the rest of the season.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:56 PM (#4757130)

No, ZIPS projects Morales to have -0.7 WAR for the entire year (including his current -0.9 WAR) and +0.2 WAR for the rest of the season.


Thanks, I was about 50% certain I had misread that.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: July 24, 2014 at 05:24 PM (#4757187)
Wow, Fangraphs had this sniffed out in June.

Twins Agree to Borrow Kendrys Morales
   9. Captain Supporter Posted: July 24, 2014 at 07:15 PM (#4757225)
I love this. ZIPS projections are now the oracles wise men must use to evaluate trades. Of course the accuracy and reliability of of ZIPS is not even considered.

If the ZIPS says no, they must go!
   10. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: July 24, 2014 at 07:33 PM (#4757231)
PreservedFish, good catch.
   11. andrewberg Posted: July 24, 2014 at 07:38 PM (#4757234)
If the Mariners also get a corner OF like Marlon Byrd, the lineup will start to look maybe halfway respectable.
   12. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:24 PM (#4757312)
Can we get a thread to discuss the Soria trade?
   13. Walt Davis Posted: July 24, 2014 at 10:28 PM (#4757316)
ZIPS projections are now the oracles wise men must use to evaluate trades.

Yep, that's exactly what AG#1F said and the fact that one person didn't say it is proof that all "wise men" believe it.

Of course the accuracy and reliability of of ZIPS is not even considered.

The accuracy and reliability of ZIPS has been heavily considered, probably evaluated more heavily than any other projection system, most of it by the guy who devised it.

And the conclusion of course is that the mean projectsion are pretty good and there are quite wide confidence intervals in projecting individual players ... but that these confidence intervals certainly seem no worse than the actual decisions made by actual baseball decision-makers with the possible exception of a handful of GMs, none of whose names start with "Z".

What we know in this particular case is that the Ms had Morales around for 2 years ... and did not extend him. They did give him a QO but did not re-sign him in the offseason, not even at the end when it was pretty clear to Morales that he wasn't getting an offer. They didn't re-sign him just after the season started when he would not have been subject to a QO and despite the fact that they would not have had to give up a draft pick in doing so. They didn't re-sign him after the draft when the draft pick compensation went away.

From all of that, what can we conclude other than that the Ms agree with ZiPS that Kendrys Morales is a ballplayer of quite limited value?

Now, after 162 wretched PAs, they have traded for him as they desperately try to hold onto the #5 spot.

So, yeah, clearly they have some deep knowledge on Morales that the rest of us don't have cuz they knew that July 24 was exactly the right time to finally grab him.

That said, a random monkey randomly swinging at a random selection of pitches could probably out-hit the M's current 1B and DH. But they'd probably have been better off just promoting Nick Franklin and sticking him there for the rest of the season.
   14. bookbook Posted: July 25, 2014 at 12:16 AM (#4757365)
They offered him a 3 year/$30 million contract. Morales was only on the Ms for one year. He doesn't like the Mariners, and chose not to sign with them, though I'm sure he didn't realize just how much money that would cost him.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: July 25, 2014 at 02:21 AM (#4757385)
Oops you're right, I thought he was there two years.

And 3/$30 is "a ballplayer of quite limited value."
   16. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: July 25, 2014 at 03:37 AM (#4757397)
I'm convinced Bill Bavasi is still running the M's.
   17. DL from MN Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:45 AM (#4757500)
The Twins paid him about $3M. They were obviously hoping for more and are happy to get out from under the remaining $4.5M. I give them credit for cutting bait so quickly.
   18. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 25, 2014 at 11:14 AM (#4757531)
$3,000,000 for a not-useless reliever with like 5 years of team-control remaining? That's a steal!

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